Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[marceau]

10 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think this is a really salient point.To varying degrees all banks that hold UST's as assets will be facing the same problem hence fighting inflation and QTIng are effectively mutually exclusive ie you can't do both without causing a significant consequence that might be an even bigger problem than the Fed's chunky balance sheet or CPI running 6% +.

As per the discssuion ref the Signature bank failure,US banking system much more fragmented than ours with specialist lenders/niche businesses,hence some are much more expsoed than otehrs if their total assets take a hit at the same time as they suffer a rising default profile

WHen the clear survivors are obvious and the equity raisings have been done,I'd be a buyer of some but mainly thiose with EM's business eg HSBC and Standard.ALso African/Lat Am banks

iirc Steve Kaplan ran a trade on KRE(US regional banks) we discussed it but I don't remember anyone dipping a toe in.I ran the Dowd Buckner and the banks in that ETF were running at 10/1-30/1,so signifcantly less leveraged than Barclays etc.Still didn't stop them getting walloped.

I haven't touched a banking share since selling HSBC/LLoyds/A&L and RBS etc psot Northern Rock .No regrets.

Our banking system is probably in an even worse state than the US's .

I can't wait for the westmisnter elite and their 'noone could have foreseen the problems at Coventry BS '  etc etc

I tried IAT last year but it took out support in Sep and I dropped it. I'm watching the sector but not tempted yet.

Not a bank, but I also want a chunk of NLY as I think they'll print money for a good decade+ once rates have stabilised. Really want them to break last years lows first though.

[JMD]

2 hours ago, honkydonkey said:

Anyone looking at buying IBZL (iShares MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF USD (Dist) (GBP) )

I found HBRL (HSBC MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF (GBP))

to be the same but 0.5% fee instead of 0.76%

Are their divi payments similar, when comparing similar funds I typically go for the higher divi because that usually nets me more payout.

Edited March 14, 2023 by JMD

[Democorruptcy]

11 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

iirc Steve Kaplan ran a trade on KRE(US regional banks) we discussed it but I don't remember anyone dipping a toe in.I ran the Dowd Buckner and the banks in that ETF were running at 10/1-30/1,so signifcantly less leveraged than Barclays etc.Still didn't stop them getting walloped.

I haven't touched a banking share since selling HSBC/LLoyds/A&L and RBS etc psot Northern Rock .No regrets.

Our banking system is probably in an even worse state than the US's .

I can't wait for the westmisnter elite and their 'noone could have foreseen the problems at Coventry BS '  etc etc

I don't remember anyone saying they had bought one. Anyway even if someone did buy one it doesn't mean it was a bad move, they could have sold a bit back hopefully in profit.

This Silicone thing seems a huge benefit to the bigger US banks? Makes me wonder if they were pulling the strings.

Disclosure: I have a cash ISA at CBS! Those FSCS people are great, I've always liked them.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, belfastchild said:

Consultants are the ones who keep the NHS waiting lists stats from getting worse.
Thats the reason they are being mentioned so often, they are the only ones who directly influence figures the government can be held to account on. Throwing money at them isnt going to work, particularly when you dont want to do it any more, are fed up of fighting administrators and have enough to live on from now to eternity.

My friends going down to 3 days a week means thats 2 days a weeks worth of patients whose waiting list just got longer. The waiting lists for those who have to take the work on just got longer as well.
They arent producing consultants with 20 years plus experience (other than imports) to fill the gaps.

I wonder what the stats are for P/T working in the various professions?   ...Could be shocking and possibly even shaming if the data leaked?!   

[Starsend]

2 hours ago, honkydonkey said:

Anyone looking at buying IBZL (iShares MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF USD (Dist) (GBP) )

I found HBRL (HSBC MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF (GBP))

to be the same but 0.5% fee instead of 0.76%

Interestingly, HBRL shows a divi yield about 0.75% less than IBZL on investing.com - are they exactly the same holdings?

Not sure how accurate that is as divi yields are often all the place.

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep,the same as a warehouse worker on 2-10 in summer going to work in boiling hot weather seeing the bennies all sat outside the pubs or in their gardens etc.Its not amounts that matter,its amounts for the effort.That warehouse worker likely works for £40 a week more than those bennies if they have a kid.We have the top saving like mad to get out,the bottom getting Sharon pregnant to get out and the ones in the middle getting smaller and more angry.

Its all due to being past the tipping point where those taking from the taxpayer are more than those paying.The corporation tax increase a big example,its to pay for public sector pensions and bennie increases,the productive hammered to inflation protect the none productive.The thinking is ludicrous,but they dont see this is a distribution/cost push cycle.

I'm genuienly amazed that we can get anyone to work Band 2 NHS jobs on nights when 16 hrs UC and/or bennies prob pay better with less hassle/no transpoet costs

4 hours ago, afly said:

There would be hope if this was the flailing end of a Labour leadership about to get hammered in an election next year.

What the fuck are we in for!?

I was in Leicester to go to the market this morning with the youngest Panza.They are driving out taxpayers/businesses and in their place are empty shops/busiensses and people who need govt aid to live.Economies like societies need to be balanced.

This is where we're going once the free moeny starts running out(which it is)

 

[belfastchild]

Only just realised this morning, Bear Stearns bailout was the 14th March.

Beware the ides of March indeed!

[Starsend]

1 hour ago, belfastchild said:

Just had something happen that said its worse than that.

Just spent an hour in the car trying to get the last mile home. RTA on the main intersection so cops closed the road (fucking 8am this morning). Cops posted on the 3 roads leading to the RTA turning traffic away.
One had female cops yarning to lorry drivers and blocking the roads more rather than telling them to move the fuck on and use their sat navs.

Absolute fucking chaos. Every other road blocked, people pulling in to the side and parking up and walking into the town. No cops to be seen. HGVs being diverted down roads that dont suit then blocking the remaining intersections on the other main roads. Add in the roadworks and a complete fucking shitshow, proper one, only cars moving are those doing u-turns and like me trying to find another way past only to find that blocked.

Kept thinking to myself why the hell havent they put more cops on all the other roads, direct traffic, do some shouting at people? Even with the roads blocked its a few hundred yards for them to walk...

..then it hit me, there are no more cops.

I lost the last tiny bit of respect I have for the cops when I broke down on the Oxford ring road on a Friday evening, engine briefly caught fire. By the time the rozzers got there it was completely out, just a smoky smell remaining. The entire Oxford area was in absolute chaos due to me blocking the ring road. I asked the filth to help me push the car off of the road onto a grass verge, right fucking there, a couple of seconds work which would have cleared the ring road. They refused on some gay health and safety grounds, couldn't fucking believe it. My car sat there blocking the road for another two hours while the AA made an unbelievable hash of recovering it and the pigs sat in their cars on their mobile phones.

These were young men as well, no excuses. No respect for them at all, symptomatic of a lot of what is wrong with this country. They behaved like little children.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, honkydonkey said:

Anyone looking at buying IBZL (iShares MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF USD (Dist) (GBP) )

I found HBRL (HSBC MSCI Brazil UCITS ETF (GBP))

to be the same but 0.5% fee instead of 0.76%

You have no idea what great timing that is.Been buying soem Henderson far East/SEDY last few days and was looking for a brazil play.Cheers CHonky

1 hour ago, belfastchild said:

Consultants are the ones who keep the NHS waiting lists stats from getting worse.
Thats the reason they are being mentioned so often, they are the only ones who directly influence figures the government can be held to account on. Throwing money at them isnt going to work, particularly when you dont want to do it any more, are fed up of fighting administrators and have enough to live on from now to eternity.

My friends going down to 3 days a week means thats 2 days a weeks worth of patients whose waiting list just got longer. The waiting lists for those who have to take the work on just got longer as well.
They arent producing consultants with 20 years plus experience (other than imports) to fill the gaps.

We're seeing it in the Ambulance service.10 years ago,crew room was full of 10 year plus experience.Now,some night shifts,5 years puts you in the top three or four of a shift of 30.

Paramedic=paramedic.Not quite.Expereince in clicnical fields is a key component of getting the right care to the right patients at the right time.

And it 's not fair on the younger crews who are going out there with sometimes 2 months of road expereince between them into some very difficult situations.

As @DurhamBorn said,the pay to poo ratio is getting way out of whack and we lost about 30% of our paramedics last year going to work in GP surgeries

56 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

There are plenty of cops, it's more what are they doing? The government introduce endless laws and very rarely repeal any. Can't really blame the few competent cops for being completely disillusioned and whiling away their 35 years working from home, everything they do is completely pointless, and the small bits that aren't pointless will come up against an extremely broken criminal justice system.

 

I take your point but our inner cities have changed massively and become a lot harder to govern over those last twenty years.

Cities of 250,000 have circa 15 cops on nights.One stabbing and they're all used up.We're having laods more stabbings than we used to(speak from expereince on that one).Lot more gang culture,social nusiance etc.

YThere arenowehre near enough police for the crimes that are being committed which ironically jsut means more crime gets committed

[belfastchild]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

As @DurhamBorn said,the pay to poo ratio is getting way out of whack and we lost about 30% of our paramedics last year going to work in GP surgeries

I know someone did 1 year at plymouth. They had always wanted to be one, did everything right to get on the course. Ended up getting a job in IT because they didnt think they would be a taxi service for drunks and fat people. The loved the rest of it but taking on that much student debt for less money than they are on on an IT apprenticeship scheme says it all.
Said their supervisor said the average time in job was something like 3-5 years post grad? That seems to be what you are saying in your comments? Again a lot of dough to spend for a 3-5 year career.

[Starsend]

49 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think this is a really salient point.To varying degrees all banks that hold UST's as assets will be facing the same problem hence fighting inflation and QTIng are effectively mutually exclusive ie you can't do both without causing a significant consequence that might be an even bigger problem than the Fed's chunky balance sheet or CPI running 6% +.

As per the discssuion ref the Signature bank failure,US banking system much more fragmented than ours with specialist lenders/niche businesses,hence some are much more expsoed than otehrs if their total assets take a hit at the same time as they suffer a rising default profile

WHen the clear survivors are obvious and the equity raisings have been done,I'd be a buyer of some but mainly thiose with EM's business eg HSBC and Standard.ALso African/Lat Am banks

iirc Steve Kaplan ran a trade on KRE(US regional banks) we discussed it but I don't remember anyone dipping a toe in.I ran the Dowd Buckner and the banks in that ETF were running at 10/1-30/1,so signifcantly less leveraged than Barclays etc.Still didn't stop them getting walloped.

I haven't touched a banking share since selling HSBC/LLoyds/A&L and RBS etc psot Northern Rock .No regrets.

Our banking system is probably in an even worse state than the US's .

I can't wait for the westmisnter elite and their 'noone could have foreseen the problems at Coventry BS '  etc etc

Alasdair Macleaod reckons the US banks are in considerable better shape than European ones (not sure if he includes UK banks in that, can't remember). Seem to recall the US banks were typically leveraged about ten times which he thought was reasonable but European ones 20+ which is a disaster waiting to happen.

[honkydonkey]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Are their divi payments similar, when comparing similar funds I typically go for the higher divi because that usually nets me more payout.

They both track MSCI Brazil so will be as good as the same. They're not exactly exactly the same as they may redistribute weighting at different times, eg one has 19% of the fund as VALE S.A and the other 20%. It's only a 1/4%, but still over a number of years adds up to a few nights down the pub for sure.

I can't see why divis would differ when they hold the same shares with the (almost exact) same distribution.

Edited March 14, 2023 by honkydonkey

[HousePriceMania]

 

[BurntBread]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I don't remember anyone dipping a toe in.

There was discussion on US banks about a year ago. @DurhamBorn's thesis was that the US would keep rates high and somehow keep QE going, in order to push capital out to productive investment. He didn't know exactly how it would happen, but from the events of this week so far, it looks like a phenomenal left-field prediction once again. The idea is that the US banks would then be more profitable and benefit over time from the industrial re-build.

For better or for worse, I am a "buy-and-hold" investor, and since I am still very much a beginner, I have tended (perhaps to an extreme) towards diversification to try to reduce risk. I therefore took a small nibble on Truist Financial Corp and Huntington Bancshares in my SIPP (SIPP because of US taxes). About half a percent of everything I own. Until last week, I was down 10% on that (5% including divis). As of now, I'm down just over another 10%.

I'm actually pretty happy with that for being in the middle of a bank run (a genuine "thank you" to DB for highlighting the sector back then - and I say that in all honesty). Obviously both may still go "pop", or be taken over with the loss of all shareholder capital, but I'm hopeful that won't happen, and comfortable with my decision to hold even if it does.

Diversification has so far been very good to me as a nervous investor in terms of sleeping well at night (the same applies to Gazprom Neft & Poly), and I like having a bit of capital in different sectors to the main thread theses.

[Funn3r]

4 hours ago, Bilbo said:

Sorry to be a pain but nobody has recommended HL. I thought most of you used them? 

I was going to open an account today for wife and another for me. I noticed that they did cash ISA as well because wife won't do anything else.

 

The HL cash ISA is with Coventry Building Society. I opened one on Friday afternoon, reluctantly, for reasons I think we all know. Then immediately afterwards the SVB collapse happened. I no longer thought I would chance it and won't be putting any money in.

[PatronizingGit]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

Thats about a 15% fall per capita using the official population figures, so its probably a 20%+ real fall when the extra population is included

Yes and no. The peak criminal age group (15-40ish) probably hasnt grown all that much, even with immigration. 

 

What we do need is more cops with brains, cops who can discern & investigate white collar crimes. 

 

From all the 'we'll accept anyone, us, especially fat people and brown people' notions I see, they are headed the opposite way. Perhaps its only a snapshot, but all the youtube videos seem to suggest the only qualification you need to be a cop is to be an utter dunce. 

[Jay]

1 hour ago, Starsend said:

Alasdair Macleaod reckons the US banks are in considerable better shape than European ones (not sure if he includes UK banks in that, can't remember). Seem to recall the US banks were typically leveraged about ten times which he thought was reasonable but European ones 20+ which is a disaster waiting to happen.

Also burry seems to say something similar..aldens in the latest newsletter says similar that banks are in better shape..also the big us banks may benefit at the expense of smaller regional banks..be lucky…still reckon a few banks will get taken over by the larger banks…voluntarily or involuntarily..

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Ha-ha! I knew YOU would BITE!

Me 'ol mucker if anyone you should know my sarcastic, oddball/warped sense of HUMOR !

 

Touche!

[M S E Refugee]

 

 

[JMD]

2 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

Thats about a 15% fall per capita using the official population figures, so its probably a 20%+ real fall when the extra population is included

But why don't we do the boys in blue (black) a favour and build 20% more prison spaces to lock up most of the habitual criminals and for longer. I bet that would reduce the police workload by more than 20%?

Edited March 14, 2023 by JMD

[HousePriceMania]

Is pretofac fucked ?

Thinking of cutting my losses on them, anyone any thoughts ?

[HousePriceMania]

17 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

 

 

Good to see DB on the tele.

[sancho panza]

Effectectievly 15,000 jobs going at Facebook

https://www.reuters.com/technology/facebook-parent-meta-lay-off-10000-employees-second-round-job-cuts-2023-03-14/

 

 

[Jay]

25 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

 

 

Thanks for posting..Hugh reckons commercial property companies will be in trouble and I can’t argue with that..buy tlts as he reckons fed will eventually cut and rates will go back to zero…big call but I don’t really see that happening again…gold is useful as collateral…ecb will raise rates again at the wrong time..agree with that..tough investing environment..he mentions greyscale trust the crypto company as being undervalued but then says it will fall…be lucky..

[Chewing Grass]

6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Effectectievly 15,000 jobs going at Facebook

https://www.reuters.com/technology/facebook-parent-meta-lay-off-10000-employees-second-round-job-cuts-2023-03-14/

 

 

Democrats insist the the US Economy is so strong they have to raise interest rates to cool it down.

The United States is prepared to speed up interest rate hikes –- and could raise them higher than anticipated -- if needed to cool inflation and a strong jobs market, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday.

Talk of an Economic Downturn is Russian Propaganda.