Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Errol]

5 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Funny you should mention that...

 

Who on earth puts a 1-2 yr old in care? These people shouldn't be having children if they can't be bothered to look after them.

[Ash4781b]

6 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Funny you should mention that...

 

 

5 minutes ago, Errol said:

Who on earth puts a 1-2 yr old in care? These people shouldn't be having children if they can't be bothered to look after them.

When I looked recently in local area a help to buy two bed was £300k. Many ‘starting the ladder’ would need two salaries to pay the mortgage. Most people I know planned to rely on relatives as it wasn’t always economic for the mother to go back to work. 
 

Lots of hints that the budget today may be fixing policy errors of their own making. I mean they set national living wage, regulatory environment -child ratios, tax, business rates. Hardly surprising that childcare is really expensive 😂. Still the central planners going for it. 
 

 

 

[Heart's Ease]

9 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Tradesmen are just going to put their prices up £20 per day for jobs in London. A new van will cost more than the £12.50 per day ULEZ charge. I guess they need to add £2.50 VAT and another £5 to their prices because why not? Buy/lease a new van and you would have to put prices up more than that.

People working salaried jobs that require cars are the ones that will pay most.

Our local bulk garden supplies (trade and public) has just done their spring mailshot. "Worked hard to keep any increases to an absolute minimum."

However, "Due to the Clean Air Zone introduced in Bradford there will be a £5 surcharge on deliveries to BD postcodes for the foreseeable future."

And...

"Due to volatile fuel prices we reserve the right to add a delivery surcharge to deliveries at any time. Customers will be advised of any extra charges at the time of ordering."

Bradford council minimum compliance requirement for diesel is euro 6.

Daily charge for non compliant LGV is £9.

Daily charge for non compliant HGV is £50.

https://www.bradford.gov.uk/breathe-better-bradford/check-if-you-need-to-pay/check-if-you-need-to-pay/

[JoeDavola]

11 hours ago, Plan-b said:

What a lot of people running this country and  'Tech' type people don't seem to understand is that none of their bullshit matters.

100%

I have had a discussion with @Frank Hovis a few times in the past about the idea that perhaps life was better in the late 90's early naughties when the internet was available but only when you sat down in front of a computer and for limited amounts of time. It wasn't pouring out of your computer, television, and another computer in your pocket 24/7.

A huge amount of 'tech' could vanish off the face off the earth tomorrow and not only would civilization not collapse, we'd probably be better off for it. As someone else mentioned after your post much if not most of the data being stored and sent about is social media bullshit that wastes everyone's time and makes people mentally ill to varying degrees.

The industry has to keep creating shit to justify it's own existance which is why you end up with systems being set up soley for the purpose of people paying hundreds of thousands of dollars to speculate on pictures of monkeys, it's so utterly ridiculous.

https://www.pcgamer.com/paris-hilton-and-jimmy-fallon-are-being-sued-for-promoting-nfts/

Edited March 15, 2023 by JoeDavola

[Noallegiance]

 

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Who on earth puts a 1-2 yr old in care? These people shouldn't be having children if they can't be bothered to look after them.

Back in 2013 we had our first of 3. At that point we spent a decent amount of time figuring our our life logistics on every level as it was pointless one of us working all the time simply earn enough to pay someone else to look after our child(ren)

Edited March 15, 2023 by Noallegiance

[Frank Hovis]

2 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

The industry has to keep creating shit to justify it's own existance which is why you end up with systems being set up soley for the purpose of people paying hundreds of thousands of dollars to speculate on pictures of monkeys, it's so utterly ridiculous.

 

 

Ah, the "digital assets" that are NFTs.

Peak digital tulip bulb more like.

"How much did you pay for your NFT? And what have you actually got for which you expecting someone to pay real money?"

 

In December 2020, Jack Dorsey created a non-fungible token (NFT) out of his first-ever Twitter post. He turned a static image of a five-word tweet into a digital file stored on a blockchain, and voila, an NFT was born. A few months later, the image sold for a stunning $2.9 million. Yet in an auction this past week, no one bid more than $280 for it. And even current bids on OpenSea only amount to about $10,000, a 99% drop in value.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffkauflin/2022/04/14/why-jack-dorseys-first-tweet-nft-plummeted-99-in-value-in-a-year/?sh=5336b53565cb

[Plan-b]

7 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

 

Ah, the "digital assets" that are NFTs.

Peak digital tulip bulb more like.

"How much did you pay for your NFT? And what have you actually got for which you expecting someone to pay real money?"

 

In December 2020, Jack Dorsey created a non-fungible token (NFT) out of his first-ever Twitter post. He turned a static image of a five-word tweet into a digital file stored on a blockchain, and voila, an NFT was born. A few months later, the image sold for a stunning $2.9 million. Yet in an auction this past week, no one bid more than $280 for it. And even current bids on OpenSea only amount to about $10,000, a 99% drop in value.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffkauflin/2022/04/14/why-jack-dorseys-first-tweet-nft-plummeted-99-in-value-in-a-year/?sh=5336b53565cb

$10,000 overpriced then - Like DB always said expect this kind of thing to go to zero at some point

[Inigo]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Who on earth puts a 1-2 yr old in care? These people shouldn't be having children if they can't be bothered to look after them.

And there are no nursery places available either.  There are only 3 nurseries in our local area who take babies (usually younger siblings of older children in their care), they are all full.  The lack of government funding is not what is stopping them open more places.  The phone calls have already started looking for "free" places.

[marceau]

9 minutes ago, Inigo said:

And there are no nursery places available either.  There are only 3 nurseries in our local area who take babies (usually younger siblings of older children in their care), they are all full.  The lack of government funding is not what is stopping them open more places.  The phone calls have already started looking for "free" places.

Yet again making things more difficult for anyone not taking/getting the subsidy. Increasing demand without increasing supply = increasing price. Where price isn't a factor it equals shortages.

A prog classic.

Edited March 15, 2023 by marceau

[Loki]

23 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

 

Ah, the "digital assets" that are NFTs.

Peak digital tulip bulb more like.

"How much did you pay for your NFT? And what have you actually got for which you expecting someone to pay real money?"

 

In December 2020, Jack Dorsey created a non-fungible token (NFT) out of his first-ever Twitter post. He turned a static image of a five-word tweet into a digital file stored on a blockchain, and voila, an NFT was born. A few months later, the image sold for a stunning $2.9 million. Yet in an auction this past week, no one bid more than $280 for it. And even current bids on OpenSea only amount to about $10,000, a 99% drop in value.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffkauflin/2022/04/14/why-jack-dorseys-first-tweet-nft-plummeted-99-in-value-in-a-year/?sh=5336b53565cb

Money laundering like modern "art"?

[Democorruptcy]

Argies managed to get through the nervous 90's!

Quote

 

Argentina’s inflation rate tops 100% for the first time in three decades

Measures by ruling coalition have failed to tame surging prices that have damaged the South American country’s economy

Argentina’s annual inflation rate has hit a three-decade high, surging past 100 per cent for the first time since 1991 in a sign of how the country’s government has failed to tame price pressures that have torn across the economy.

Prices rose by 6.6 per cent in February, bringing the 12-month figure to 102.5 per cent, according to Indec, the government statistics agency.

FT

 

 

 

[Frank Hovis]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

Money laundering like modern "art"?

 

I was discussing this in RL (I know!) the other day.

Modern art has little intrinsic value, as in it doesn't have the hundreds of hours spent creating a statue or top quality oil painting, but it does acquire and, much more importantly, retain an extrinsic value from the publicity and hype surrounding it.

Andy Warhol's art was amateurish but sells for a fortune owing to the publicity that he attracted in life. Contemporary examples of such are "Banksy" (Robin Gunningham), Tracey Emin and Damien Hurst.

Amateurish rubbish they may be but as they now have their place in the history of art they have and will retain value IMO.

[ashestoashes]

reform of the ISA limits seems to have been dropped from the budget unless it's going to be in the small print

[JoeDavola]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Who on earth puts a 1-2 yr old in care? These people shouldn't be having children if they can't be bothered to look after them.

Most "career" women. Who ironically are performing neither their 'professional' job or their job as a parent well.

But its beter for the economy that way.

[DoINeedOne]

33 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

100%

I have had a discussion with @Frank Hovis a few times in the past about the idea that perhaps life was better in the late 90's early naughties when the internet was available but only when you sat down in front of a computer and for limited amounts of time. It wasn't pouring out of your computer, television, and another computer in your pocket 24/7.

A huge amount of 'tech' could vanish off the face off the earth tomorrow and not only would civilization not collapse, we'd probably be better off for it. As someone else mentioned after your post much if not most of the data being stored and sent about is social media bullshit that wastes everyone's time and makes people mentally ill to varying degrees.

The industry has to keep creating shit to justify it's own existance which is why you end up with systems being set up soley for the purpose of people paying hundreds of thousands of dollars to speculate on pictures of monkeys, it's so utterly ridiculous.

 

 

It's something I think about a lot, and trying to get back to a simpler life trouble is it can be diffucult when everyone around you seems like a zombie

The youngsters of mine and my friends families just can't put down their phones for a few minutes you watch them they are like crack heads not knowing what to do with themselfs 

 

 

 

[M S E Refugee]

8 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

reform of the ISA limits seems to have been dropped from the budget unless it's going to be in the small print

It's the retirement age I'm most bothered about, I'm 55 in 54 months time and I will be seething if they increase it.

[JoeDavola]

5 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

It's something I think about a lot, and trying to get back to a simpler life trouble is it can be diffucult when everyone around you seems like a zombie

Agreed - all you can do is change your own behaviour - see my Digital Detox topic on the Health sub forum and have a think if you can simplfiy your own life.

[belfastchild]

22 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I was discussing this in RL (I know!) the other day.

Modern art has little intrinsic value, as in it doesn't have the hundreds of hours spent creating a statue or top quality oil painting, but it does acquire and, much more importantly, retain an extrinsic value from the publicity and hype surrounding it.

Andy Warhol's art was amateurish but sells for a fortune owing to the publicity that he attracted in life. Contemporary examples of such are "Banksy" (Robin Gunningham), Tracey Emin and Damien Hurst.

Amateurish rubbish they may be but as they now have their place in the history of art they have and will retain value IMO.

Its the time and effort that goes into creating that publicity and hype thats the difference.
Older types of art were often commissioned (a lot by the church) so the artist had the patronage and knowing it would be paid for so could spend the time.

Warhol is interesting because it was more of a factory concept, like a lot of the great artists before him, he developed a 'studio' or a 'school' where they could just use interns or trainees or apprentices to churn out the lesser value works. No different to most in history.

I met Tracey Emin years ago and had a brief chat with her. Up to that point I thought 'what a pile of shite'. Still think its mostly a pile of shite but I can see the time and effort put into creating the final piece.

I have a friend who produces artwork that sells in the 10k mark, they dont produce a lot of it. I often liken him to my barrister, they both get paid for 'thinking time' and thats reflected in the final bill, not necessarily the final product.
I know a couple of tag artists (well people who thought they were going to be tag artists full time and who are not - like every waiter in nashville appears to be a singer who just does waiting part time until they make it). Anyway for a time if you wanted any specific tags/grafitti done here you would need permission from the council to paint the wall white, get the tag artist in and then paint over it again. They were getting paid for an ephemeral product. A lot of artists work that way, collective rights organisations do recover money from auctions etc but its not a big a picture as the working for hire type stuff.

Theres nothing to say Banksy isnt the bloke who knocks out the stencils.

Dad of a friend of mine owns an art gallery in the US and they dropped me a mail about NFTs (as Im one of those 'techie' people) and ordinarily I would just say, pile of shite. But and heres the big but, how the fuck would I really know, I dont mix in these circles and if I said that to a guy who does, he could potentially lose hundreds of thousands following my 'advice'. I said I didnt know, I thought it had no merit but certainly make sure to up his commission on any that came through his door.
He limited it to what I would classify as 'fucking microsoft paint doodles' displayed on an oled screen and did the limited edition version.
Similar concept to the electronic picture frames (yes I have one ffs) that were a fad years ago before people wised up. Im sure he sold a few and Im sure the people who bought had no real interest in art but rather the bragging rights for something on their wall (and crash story to tell and tax writeoff or whatever in years to come). Thats the real 'value', the bragging rights.

Edited March 15, 2023 by belfastchild
spelling

[ThoughtCriminal]

Well. Well. Well.

[Inigo]

1 hour ago, belfastchild said:

Its the time and effort that goes into creating that publicity and hype thats the difference.
Older types of art were often commissioned (a lot by the church) so the artist had the patronage and knowing it would be paid for so could spend the time.

Warhol is interesting because it was more of a factory concept, like a lot of the great artists before him, he developed a 'studio' or a 'school' where they could just use interns or trainees or apprentices to churn out the lesser value works. No different to most in history.

I met Tracey Emin years ago and had a brief chat with her. Up to that point I thought 'what a pile of shite'. Still think its mostly a pile of shite but I can see the time and effort put into creating the final piece.

I have a friend who produces artwork that sells in the 10k mark, they dont produce a lot of it. I often liken him to my barrister, they both get paid for 'thinking time' and thats reflected in the final bill, not necessarily the final product.
I know a couple of tag artists (well people who thought they were going to be tag artists full time and who are not - like every waiter in nashville appears to be a singer who just does waiting part time until they make it). Anyway for a time if you wanted any specific tags/grafitti done here you would need permission from the council to paint the wall white, get the tag artist in and then paint over it again. They were getting paid for an ephemeral product. A lot of artists work that way, collective rights organisations do recover money from auctions etc but its not a big a picture as the working for hire type stuff.

Theres nothing to say Banksy isnt the bloke who knocks out the stencils.

Dad of a friend of mine owns an art gallery in the US and they dropped me a mail about NFTs (as Im one of those 'techie' people) and ordinarily I would just say, pile of shite. But and heres the big but, how the fuck would I really know, I dont mix in these circles and if I said that to a guy who does, he could potentially lose hundreds of thousands following my 'advice'. I said I didnt know, I thought it had no merit but certainly make sure to up his commission on any that came through his door.
He limited it to what I would classify as 'fucking microsoft paint doodles' displayed on an oled screen and did the limited edition version.
Similar concept to the electronic picture frames (yes I have one ffs) that were a fad years ago before people wised up. Im sure he sold a few and Im sure the people who bought had no real interest in art but rather the bragging rights for something on their wall (and crash story to tell and tax writeoff or whatever in years to come). Thats the real 'value', the bragging rights.

I did some business with someone whose other job was being a sculptor.  He used to do bronze busts, but found that there is more demand for one off bronze pieces of furniture.  Apparently, when furnishing your superyacht, it's not great if one of your oligarch mates says "Oh yeah, I've got one of those."

The last time I spoke to him a few years back, he was trying to move galleries from Milan to London to get more obscenely rich customers.

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by Inigo

[dnb24]

SVB contagion into Europe?

BNP paribas trading halted.

societe generale also down 8%

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by dnb24

[desertorchid]

34 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Well. Well. Well.

I clearly remember those f***ckers buying  assets for pennies in '08-'09 to help "save" the system. They ARE the bloody system.

[Plan-b]

1 minute ago, desertorchid said:

I clearly remember those f***ckers buying  assets for pennies in '08-'09 to help "save" the system. They ARE the bloody system.

The squid strikes again 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Errol said:

Who on earth puts a 1-2 yr old in care? These people shouldn't be having children if they can't be bothered to look after them.

This is really to get in place a system so they can say to bennies,no excuse now you can work,there is the childcare for you.Might be in this budget,or later,but i suspect with 30 hours free childcare we are heading towards 25 hours to 30 hours being the minimum expected work before you dont have to attend the jobcentre.

[geordie_lurch]

Things seem to be getting interesting in the EU I'm down 10% from ATH now too but trying to hold tight to mainly oilies and EM shares

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by geordie_lurch