Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[MrXxxx]

57 minutes ago, Boon said:

There was a funny graphic on the BBC showing that long-term sickness dwarfs the retiree bit, yet none of the mainstream media ever say it out loud.

I think the childcare think won't make much difference really. Some people are just too lazy and of course once the kids get old enough for school a lot of jobs simply isn't compatible with that routine. People will still decide it isn't worth their time because universal credit picks up the slack.

They are going to need sticks rather than carrots.

 

...and the 'Truth'?

 

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by MrXxxx

[geordie_lurch]

 

[Sidd]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Most "career" women. Who ironically are performing neither their 'professional' job or their job as a parent well.

But its beter for the economy that way.

I dont know if that applies to all. Times are generally hard and 2 incomes are quite the norm these days especially if you live in SE and want to be able to provide well for your family.

I earn a lot more than my wife but her extra income certainly helps. Our kids are in nursery (new one will once hes over 1 but only 3 half days) but it gives my wife a mental break, which in turn helps me and we really put a shift in with the time we get with our kids. My 4 year old is already dong basic algebra and divisions etc. My wife gets a lot of the credit too.

 

It's the quality time that matters, plus since my eldest went nursery we saw dramatic improvements in his confidence. If you dump them in nursery full time and spend no quality time with them then i get the argument.

Edited March 15, 2023 by Sidd

[Loki]

1 hour ago, marceau said:

The age of consent is OVER.

Genuine tea spit moment 

[sancho panza]

It looks all but done.Maybe I've been a little cavalier with regard to the bail out capacity of the CB's and maybe the banking crisis is upon us.

Dowd Buckner for CS today 77/1.It looks done in tbh.

It's either the bear stearns moment or it's the lehman moment.I think the former along with SVB.

Decl:no positions short/long in any banks.

https://www.ft.com/content/e4602e40-463d-4408-8d1d-e682b86d1859

Edited March 15, 2023 by sancho panza

[JoeDavola]

4 minutes ago, Sidd said:

I dont know if that applies to all.

Well I did say most. And I know that it's basically impossible to run a household on one income now, it's shit.

I just know from various women I've worked with once they have kids they dont really give a shit about work any more.

So you have a less productive/interested worker and an absent (to a degree) mother.

It's not their fault as such, it's the system that's been set up for the benefit of 'the economy'.

I'd prefer a setup where either parent could be there for their child for say the first 5 years without completely nuking their career, or both parents could go part time and share that responsibility. Won't happen though.

[Sidd]

17 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Well I did say most. And I know that it's basically impossible to run a household on one income now, it's shit.

I just know from various women I've worked with once they have kids they dont really give a shit about work any more.

So you have a less productive/interested worker and an absent (to a degree) mother.

It's not their fault as such, it's the system that's been set up for the benefit of 'the economy'.

I'd prefer a setup where either parent could be there for their child for say the first 5 years without completely nuking their career, or both parents could go part time and share that responsibility. Won't happen though.

Fully agree. Ideally i would love for one of us to be full time parents with ample resources to maximise their potential. Heck i would happily be a stay at home dad if she were the bread winner and we laugh about it all the time. One benefit of covid though is i wfh a lot more so have spent loads of extra time with my kids. I am lucky in that way. Also the system has failed people but i also do think a lot of mothers are too busy on their smart phone apps all day and consumed by wordly things to be bothered to take their little one for a walk down to the library or to the park. Most were not ready to be parents.

Edited March 15, 2023 by Sidd

[marceau]

45 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Maybe it is!

FYI Credit Suisse trading halted down 20%

Suisse certainly is trash imo. It has been coming a long time - a decade+ of lunacy on the books that all has to be worked through, and afterwards there may not be a going concern left. This may or may not be the start of that.

However sector selloff ≠ liquidity crisis.

Having said that, there's a recognition to be had about the state of the EU economy in general and there's a chance euro banks popping could lead into that. The EU has more scope to hide it's mess than the UK has, but the mess there is a LOT bigger imo.

Crypto is the lowest grade shit in the investment world, pure speculation, so if there's a liquidity crunch it's getting sold early and HARD. Only once crypto shits itself will I start to take contagion seriously. Until then I'll assume this is a narrative-driven  move and position accordingly. It's always hard to resist the urge to join the herd at peaks of manipulation, but that's where you get the biggest reversals.

Edited March 15, 2023 by marceau

[belfastchild]

40 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

It may all be art and have some value but art is very much unequal in worth and value.

And we all assign different worth and value to different art. I wouldnt touch your half shark and cant afford a damien hirst (well I can, just not one of his main pieces). https://www.artsy.net/artwork/damien-hirst-fig-dot-4-saint-bartholomew

You may say that suit has no value and the story is made up but every day people post made up stuff here as the truth (they may well believe it or want to believe it themselves). Thats your opinion. In the opinion of the curator who hung it in the tate, it did have value. By the 'mere' act of hanging it in the tate it then goes up the value chain. Its also listed on moma and no doubt 99 other galleries around the world ;-)

The more controversy the better but lets take the 100 suits, all it takes is 100 people (or much much less) out of 4 billion to fall for the story, accept the story, think 'this will go up in value' or I want one of those hanging in my house etc etc.
The rest of the 4 billion that like it but cant afford it will go down the list of other works or prints of the works and get those instead - 'oh thats the same as the german guy with the felt suits, this is much better' etc etc.

Being around artists has taught me a lot, a hell of  alot more than if Id stayed hanging around engineers 'thats right' 'thats wrong' 'dont like that' 'has no merit as its a tent with pictures in it' etc etc.

Ive seen the mona lisa up close (well behind bulletproof glass). Thought 'what the fuck is all the fuss about?'. Saw Starry Night in MoMa and was fascinated by the brush strokes - 'mad bastard' thought I and would have that hanging in my living room!

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

Beeching destroyed much of the Transport Network in the 60's.

So with a smaller network we should be able to run it more easily, but this is not the case.

[MrXxxx]

57 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I would say that genuine art is about something valuable being created by someone with skill and talent who then puts a vast amount of their time into the piece.

Conceptual Art, your point about the expression / idea, is yes also art but the end product is poor.  When you have to weave a whole story around something in order to give it menaing and value then you have to do that because there is no value there.

Joseph Beuys made 100 identical "Filzanzugs" or felt suits.

https://www.tate.org.uk/art/artworks/beuys-felt-suit-ar00092

 

He claimed that the reason for making them was:

Beuys claimed he was rescued, barely alive, from the burning Stuka by Tatar nomads and swathed in fat and felt to resurrect him. It was a tale that explained not just his survival but his rebirth as a radical visionary out of the ashes of his youth in the Nazi era. The trouble was, it was a lie. Does that matter? Is it still a useful fable, part of his crazy vision, or should we suspect that his entire artistic output is similarly dishonest, or even that it is tainted by a past he never truly rejected or explained?

https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2018/apr/16/joseph-beuys-utopia-at-the-stag-monuments-review-galerie-thaddaeus-ropac-london

As noted there: it was a lie.

Even if that lie was true what have we but one hundred grey felt suits that have not been finished - no buttons, hemmed trousers.

 

And if a buy a shark, slice it in a half, and put in a glass cabinet filled with formaldehyde I have done as much as Damien Hurst did.

I do not accept that the straightforward expression of artistic ideas has anything like the worth of a work by a genuinely skilled artist who has put so much effort into a piece.

If the Mona Lisa, for instance, had zero back story and the painter was unknown then it would still be a thing of beauty to hang upon the wall.

An unfinished grey felt suit would be down the charity shop, half a shark in a glass tank down the tip.

It may all be art and have some value but art is very much unequal in worth and value.

Love to carry on this one @FH but it's off topic for this thread; trying my best to be disciplined as previously I haven't!

[darkmarket]

3 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

And we all assign different worth and value to different art.

Based on that and your previous post, if you're interested in the concept of objective aesthetic judgement you may enjoy Scruton's The Aesthetic Understanding and Kant's Critique of Judgement. Both very convincing, very rewarding reads.

[Wight Flight]

15 minutes ago, Sidd said:

Fully agree. Ideally i would love for one of to be full time parents with ample resources to maximise their potential.

I did that.

It is one of the reasons I don't have any pension provision.

[M S E Refugee]

We have broken the record Gold price in Sterling.

[TNS]

What a day to have the budget, #shitshow!

[DurhamBorn]

Here comes Hunt trying to stave off systemic collapse, 

[DurhamBorn]

"i listened to Martin Lewis"   we are fucked .

[Noallegiance]

Removing planned tax increases to 'bring down' inflation.

He really is a cunt.

[MrXxxx]

Credit Suisse struggling...are we starting to see contagion moving from the US to Europe i.e. "The US sneezes and the world catches a cold"?...thought I would just leave this here:

 

The following is a timeline of the major events of the financial crisis, including government responses, and the subsequent economic recovery:

• May 19, 2005: Fund manager Michael Burry closed a credit default swap against subprime mortgage bonds with Deutsche Bank valued at $60 million – the first such CDS. He projected they would become volatile within two years of the low "teaser rate" of the mortgages expiring.^[84][85]
• 2006: After years of above-average price increases, housing prices peaked and mortgage loan delinquency rose, leading to the United States housing bubble.^[86][87] Due to increasingly lax underwriting standards, one-third of all mortgages in 2006 were subprime or no-documentation loans,^[88] which comprised 17 percent of home purchases that year.^[89]
• May 2006: JPMorgan warns clients of housing downturn, especially sub-prime.^[90]
• August 2006: The yield curve inverted, signaling a recession was likely within a year or two. NOTE The current 2's/10' yield curve inverted on 01 April [seems appropriate!] 2022.
• November 2006: UBS sounded "the alarm about an impending crisis in the U.S. housing market" ^[90]
• February 27, 2007: Stock prices in China and the U.S. fell by the most since 2003 as reports of a decline in home prices and durable goods orders stoked growth fears, with Alan Greenspan predicting a recession.^[92] Due to increased delinquency rates in subprime lending, Freddie Mac said that it would stop investing in certain subprime loans.^[93]
• April 2, 2007: New Century, an American real estate investment trust specializing in subprime lending and securitization, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. This propagated the subprime mortgage crisis.^{[94][95][89][96][97]}
• June 20, 2007: After receiving margin calls, Bear Stearns bailed out two of its hedge funds with $20 billion of exposure to collateralized debt obligations including subprime mortgages. Bear Stearns said that the problem was contained. NOTE 10 months after 2's/10' yield curve inverted, SVB failed approx. 11 months after current YC inversion in 2022.
• July 19, 2007: The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closes above 14,000 for the first time at 14,000.41. It would tumble following this.^[99]
• July 31, 2007: Bear Stearns liquidated the two hedge funds.^[96]
• August 6, 2007: American Home Mortgage filed bankruptcy.^[96]
• August 9, 2007: BNP Paribas blocked withdrawals from three of its hedge funds with a total of $2.2 billion in assets under management, due to "a complete evaporation of liquidity", making valuation of the funds impossible – a clear sign that banks were refusing to do business with each other.^{[97][100][101]}
• August 16, 2007: The DJIA closes at 12,945.78 after falling 12 out of the previous 20 trading days following its peak. It had fallen 1,164.63 or 8.3%.^[99]
• September 14, 2007: Northern Rock, a medium-sized and highly leveraged British bank, received support from the Bank of England.^[102] This led to investor panic and a bank run.^[103]
• September 18, 2007: The Federal Open Market Committee began reducing the federal funds rate from its peak of 5.25% in response to worries about liquidity and confidence.^[104][105]
• September 28, 2007: NetBank suffered from bank failure and filed bankruptcy due to exposure to home loans.^[106]
• October 9, 2007: The DJIA hit its peak closing price of 14,164.53.^[107]
• October 15, 2007: Citigroup, Bank of America, and JPMorgan Chase announced plans for the $80 billion Master Liquidity Enhancement Conduit to provide liquidity to structured investment vehicles. The plan was abandoned in December.^[108]
• December 2007: Unemployment in the US hits 5%.^[109]
• December 12, 2007: The Federal Reserve instituted the Term auction facility to supply short-term credit to banks with sub-prime mortgages.^[110]
• December 17, 2007: Delta Financial Corporation filed bankruptcy after failing to securitize subprime loans.^[111]
• December 19, 2007: the Standard and Poor's rating agency downgrades the ratings of many monoline insurers which pay out bonds that fail.
• January 11, 2008: Bank of America agreed to buy Countrywide Financial for $4 billion in stock.^[112]
• January 18, 2008: Stock markets fell to a yearly low as the credit rating of Ambac, a bond insurance company, was downgraded. Meanwhile, an increase in the amount of withdrawals causes Scottish Equitable to implement up to 12 month delays on people wanting to withdraw money.^[113]
• January 21, 2008: As US markets are closed for Martin Luther King Day, the FTSE 100 in the United Kingdom tumbles 323.5 points or 5.5% in its largest crash since 9/11...NOTE 17 months after YC inversion in Aug 2006.^[114]
• January 22, 2008: The US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 0.75% to stimulate the economy, the largest drop in 25 years and the first emergency cut since 2001.^[114]
• January 2008: U.S. stocks had the worst January since 2000 over concerns about the exposure of companies that issue bond insurance. NOTE 17 months after YC inversion in Aug 2006.^[115]
• February 13, 2008: The Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 was enacted, which included a tax rebate.^[116][117]
• February 22, 2008: The nationalisation of Northern Rock was completed.^[103]
• March 5, 2008: The Carlyle Group received margin calls on its mortgage bond fund.^[118]
• March 17, 2008: Bear Stearns, with $46 billion of mortgage assets that had not been written down and $10 trillion in total assets, faced bankruptcy; instead, in its first emergency meeting in 30 years, the Federal Reserve agreed to guarantee its bad loans to facilitate its acquisition by JPMorgan Chase for $2/share. A week earlier, the stock was trading at $60/share and a year earlier it traded for $178/share. The buyout price was increased to $10/share the following week.^{[119][120][121]}
• March 18, 2008: In a contentious meeting, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 75 basis points, its 6th cut in 6 months.^[122] It also allowed Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in subprime mortgages from banks. Officials thought this would contain the possible crisis. The U.S. dollar weakened and commodity prices soared.
• Late June 2008: Despite the U.S. stock market falling to a 20% drop off its highs, commodity-related stocks soared as oil traded above $140/barrel for the first time and steel prices rose above $1,000 per ton. Worries about inflation combined with strong demand from China encouraged people to invest in commodities during the 2000s commodities boom.^[123][124]
• July 11, 2008: IndyMac failed. Oil prices peak at $147.50^[125][114]
• July 30, 2008: The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 was enacted.^[126]
• August 2008: Unemployment hits 6% in the US.^[109]
• September 7, 2008: The Federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was implemented.^[127]
• September 15, 2008: After the Federal Reserve declined to guarantee its loans as it did for Bear Stearns, the Bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers led to a 504.48-point (4.42%) drop in the DJIA, its worst decline in seven years. To avoid bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch was acquired by Bank of America for $50 billion in a transaction facilitated by the government.^[128] Lehman had been in talks to be sold to either Bank of America or Barclays but neither bank wanted to acquire the entire company.^[129

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by MrXxxx

[dnb24]

Barclays shares have been halted - 7% down

[belfastchild]

Im only watching this budget to see if someone comes in and whispers something in his ear....

[ashestoashes]

18 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Here comes Hunt trying to stave off systemic collapse, 

£10m over next 10 years for suicide prevention

euthanasia to be legalised

[Noallegiance]

4 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

Barclays shares have been halted - 7% down

Still trading on my screens. 8.5% down.

Just now, ashestoashes said:

 

euthanasia to be legalised

They've already been legalised to not stay in Asia.

[ILikeCake]

29 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Here comes Hunt trying to stave off systemic collapse, 

https://youtu.be/l4UFQWKjy_I

[DurhamBorn]

There is the tax cut for asset companies for investment.