Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Plan-b]

1 minute ago, marceau said:

That model is a bust.

Why and to what end? Complete demand destruction and complete control?

[Cattle Prod]

LTA allowance abolished ... perhaps creating headroom for financial repression, as well as more tax on the way out. Mandated gilt purchases when they can't sell them on the open market.

[marceau]

1 minute ago, Plan-b said:

Why and to what end? Complete demand destruction and complete control?

They can't grow revenues above inflation in the current model.

They aren't letting inflation do what it's supposed to do.

This isn't 4d chess, they're just stubborn and stupid.

[MrXxxx]

21 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Sorry for Martin link. @Frank Hovis you've mentioned this recently.

 

 

PLUS

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

MrXxxx replied to spunko's topic in Property Prices & Economy

I postulated this less than two weeks ago on here as an issue stopping early retirees back into the work place, and how changing it might help counteract the exodus: https://www.professionalpensions.com/news/4077374/reports-chancellor-set-unveil-sharp-budget-rise-pension-allowances ...methinks we have a government spy on this thread!

• Sunday at 13:00
• 6,207 replies
• • 2

 

....."The things that make you go?..."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MoZ33bcs1Tg

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by MrXxxx

[marceau]

White paper on welfare reform:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/transforming-support-the-health-and-disability-white-paper/transforming-support-the-health-and-disability-white-paper

[ILikeCake]

Did anyone pick up on when the free childcare will be introduced?  Would be nice to actually be entitled to something for once.

[JoeDavola]

Waiting patiently for the "freebies for single childless people" part of the budget.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[AlfredTheLittle]

They definitely live in their own bubble, where the top public sector pensions aren't high enough and increasing them is the most important issue facing the UK, unfortunately the media are part of the same bubble so there's no voice of common sense anywhere.

[MrXxxx]

28 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

Needs a thread of its own.

We have several all under 'Property prices & Economy, and 'Investments & Shares'.

[HousePriceMania]

6 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

They definitely live in their own bubble, where the top public sector pensions aren't high enough and increasing them is the most important issue facing the UK, unfortunately the media are part of the same bubble so there's no voice of common sense anywhere.

The Labour Party will speak up for the common man.

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/keir-starmer-sells-donkey-sanctuary-28757467

 

Keir Starmer sells 'donkey sanctuary' field in Surrey for around £400,000

[MrXxxx]

1 minute ago, HousePriceMania said:

The Labour Party will speak up for the common man.

 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/keir-starmer-sells-donkey-sanctuary-28757467

 

Keir Starmer sells 'donkey sanctuary' field in Surrey for around £400,000

Well I suppose they will have to look for another site for the new Labour party HQ then?!

[Cattle Prod]

26 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

LTA allowance abolished ... perhaps creating headroom for financial repression, as well as more tax on the way out. Mandated gilt purchases when they can't sell them on the open market.

Lump sum is frozen at the current threshold, showing that this is not really about incentive. Lump sum will basically reduce with inflation. Sneaky bastards, I was almost going to change my pension planning. Not now.

[marceau]

On 12/03/2023 at 22:45, marceau said:

Just reading through some of the proposed disability reforms, it's a major shakeup. Looks to be an attempt to get rid of an entire category of 'disability' through removal of any tie in to work. Split along the lines of health (temporary) & disability (permanent), with time as major deciding factor in approach to the former. Anything where improvement is available is going to be up for far more scutiny as time goes on. Regular review, heavy interaction etc.

Looks somewhat similar to the Armed Forces Compensation model, assessment against a scale of conditions with less subjective input. Higher payments to all, with fewer qualifying for long term awards and tighter conditions on temporary awards. 

Still in the rumour mill so take with a pinch of salt, but if true I genuinely can't see them getting it through parliament.

Edit - I can't see how any of it would work with UC. Seems completely incompatible.

Just a quick skim read of the white paper and it's pretty much the above, apart from the new assesment criteria for PIP, which isn't described.

LCW/LCWRA will be eliminated - whole category of disability gone. PIP will be revised/expanded. Part time/home working will be expected. In (very) crude terms firms will get subsidised to create disabled workhouses, although this isn't likely to work at all imo. Net effect could hammer the mental health/austism/fibromyalgia crew.

Buuuuut - it requires primary legislation. Chances of getting it through parliament are slim imo. Even if they do it'll be years before it takes effect.

[The Bear of Doom]

On the subject of Pensions, the annual allowance for contributions has been increased from £40k to £60k.

[DurhamBorn]

30 minutes ago, marceau said:

They can't grow revenues above inflation in the current model.

They aren't letting inflation do what it's supposed to do.

This isn't 4d chess, they're just stubborn and stupid.

My model said 35% inflation would solve most of their problems,but then they inflation linked all the scroungers blowing that out of the water,insane,they simply doubled the pain on the productive.The LTA going is a big one though,by scrapping it it stops it being lowered again in future.Nothing for the middle ground worker though,nothing at all.

[JoeDavola]

3 minutes ago, The Bear of Doom said:

On the subject of Pensions, the annual allowance for contributions has been increased from £40k to £60k.

Will be of little comfort to the average worker given the number of jobs these days that seem to espect the moon on a stick for £35K. Very few folk out there that can throw £60K into a pension every year but I guess it could be attractive if you were a high-earning contractor. You could probably stash away enough in a decade to retire assuming the house is paid off.

[marceau]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My model said 35% inflation would solve most of their problems,but then they inflation linked all the scroungers blowing that out of the water,insane,they simply doubled the pain on the productive.The LTA going is a big one though,by scrapping it it stops it being lowered again in future.Nothing for the middle ground worker though,nothing at all.

Politically it's quite clever as it's a proper 'rich get richer' budget which the Labour front bench won't object to, because they'll be some of the biggest ones getting richer.

From a personal point of view it's by far the biggest giveaway I've ever received in a single budget.

But in reality it's doing nothing to even recognise the problem, let alone solve it. The welfare stuff is good on paper, but that's about it.

[The Bear of Doom]

2 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Will be of little comfort to the average worker given the number of jobs these days that seem to espect the moon on a stick for £35K. Very few folk out there that can throw £60K into a pension every year but I guess it could be attractive if you were a high-earning contractor. You could probably stash away enough in a decade to retire assuming the house is paid off.

It's probably aimed at Hospital Consultants and the like, as has been suggested previously on this thread/Forum by other posters.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, marceau said:

Politically it's quite clever as it's a proper 'rich get richer' budget which the Labour front bench won't object to, because they'll be some of the biggest ones getting richer.

From a personal point of view it's by far the biggest giveaway I've ever received in a single budget.

But in reality it's doing nothing to even recognise the problem, let alone solve it. The welfare stuff is good on paper, but that's about it.

Yes there is pretty much nothing there at all.The freezing of the tax free lump sum is the tell of course,that will be slowly inflated away and then pensions will be worthless for 20% taxpayers,or 40% taxpayers who stay at 40%.

Im still glad the LTA is gone though and think a cap on tax free cash is fine,BUT only if it was inflation linked.I dont see aything today that will encourage anyone to work though.Best thing for that would of been the tax allowance up to £18k and bring bennies into the tax system as well.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, marceau said:

Politically it's quite clever as it's a proper 'rich get richer' budget which the Labour front bench won't object to, because they'll be some of the biggest ones getting richer.

From a personal point of view it's by far the biggest giveaway I've ever received in a single budget.

But in reality it's doing nothing to even recognise the problem, let alone solve it. The welfare stuff is good on paper, but that's about it.

Even more reason for people to throw in the towel and quit work. Especially as the average worker is getting soaked by frozen tax allowances. My council tax bill arrived today, up 6%. Fuck them.

[Noallegiance]

37 minutes ago, ILikeCake said:

Did anyone pick up on when the free childcare will be introduced?  Would be nice to actually be entitled to something for once.

2024. I was half listening. There is a stagger. One bit in April the left in Spetember. As for detail beyond that, I'm out.

[ILikeCake]

Just now, Noallegiance said:

2024. I was half listening. There is a stagger. One bit in April the left in Spetember. As for detail beyond that, I'm out.

Cheers.  Just looked it up.  My little one is 3 in June so won't be entitled, bollocks.  Irrelevant anyway as probably full on collapse by then so won't happen.

[afly]

41 minutes ago, ILikeCake said:

Did anyone pick up on when the free childcare will be introduced?  Would be nice to actually be entitled to something for once.

From April 2024, this will be rolled out for working parents of two-year-olds at 15 hours per week, before being rolled out fully by September 2025.

So late '25 in the way he described

England only

[marceau]

54 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes there is pretty much nothing there at all.The freezing of the tax free lump sum is the tell of course,that will be slowly inflated away and then pensions will be worthless for 20% taxpayers,or 40% taxpayers who stay at 40%.

Im still glad the LTA is gone though and think a cap on tax free cash is fine,BUT only if it was inflation linked.I dont see aything today that will encourage anyone to work though.Best thing for that would of been the tax allowance up to £18k and bring bennies into the tax system as well.

Yeah the freeze is a bummer, and won't fool anyone with a brain into working more. It really just provides more tax avoidance options on the way in/out.

I've made a post above about the welfare changes. Looks like your depression trick with ESA would go the way of the dodo if it got through. It won't get through though. Once the squealing starts Labour and the Tory wets (ie most of them) will oppose.

Edit - looks the depression trick will still work as contribution-based ESA won't be affected.

Edited March 15, 2023 by marceau

[afly]

tbh if you get shagging now, 9mnth + 9mths mat leave you'd hit it from the off