Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[marceau]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

This is really to get in place a system so they can say to bennies,no excuse now you can work,there is the childcare for you.Might be in this budget,or later,but i suspect with 30 hours free childcare we are heading towards 25 hours to 30 hours being the minimum expected work before you dont have to attend the jobcentre.

The unleaked part of the budget is the welfare White Paper. Tax & pensions direction was already made clear in the last budget imo - and anyone hoping for a coherent plan or change in tack is going to be disappointed.

It's the bennies that matter this time round. Need to see the detail in that white paper.

[marceau]

11 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Things seem to be getting interesting in the EU

 

But all of the trash (principally crypto) is still trading up. That's sector rotation, not contagion.

As long as crypto is rallying this is all just newscycle guff.

If there's a liquidity problem the trash will get dumped first.

Edited March 15, 2023 by marceau

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, AWW said:

F150 is copping a lot of shit, but he's right. The curtain is coming down on the age of private car ownership. The Ministry of Transport is on record stating that it believes that private vehicle ownership is of the 20th century and would prefer a move towards more flexible, shares, low-carbon personal transport. You can't add tens of millions to the population and maintain the same rate of private car usage on the same decrepit roads. The only options when you're not building new infrastructure is to reduce usage or time shift some of it.

Would be happy [well accepting] of this if they provided the infrastructure, but travelling by Public Transport in the UK is getting worse and worse; akin to some Developing countries, especially in comparison to most Northern European countries.

[Red Debt Redemption]

14 hours ago, leonardratso said:

Nice haircut @F150

[Red Debt Redemption]

13 hours ago, Loki said:

I might hire F150 on one of those cargo bike things they use in London and just boot him in the back the whole time

HURRY UP IT'S NEARLY 7.30AM WE'RE LATE

YES I KNOW IT'S HEAVY, SHOULD HAVE THOUGHT OF THAT SHOULDNTCHAAAAA....

I actually fancy a leccy one of those for the weekly shop.  pricey when I could just use the car though.

[Boon]

There was a funny graphic on the BBC showing that long-term sickness dwarfs the retiree bit, yet none of the mainstream media ever say it out loud.

I think the childcare think won't make much difference really. Some people are just too lazy and of course once the kids get old enough for school a lot of jobs simply isn't compatible with that routine. People will still decide it isn't worth their time because universal credit picks up the slack.

They are going to need sticks rather than carrots.

[marceau]

5 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Nice haircut @F150

The age of consent is OVER.

Edited March 15, 2023 by marceau

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, Errol said:

Who on earth puts a 1-2 yr old in care? These people shouldn't be having children if they can't be bothered to look after them.

Unfortunately we now have a society where people 'want their cake and eat it', and through the support systems provided by governments they do have to face the consequences of their actions/have to make a choice, with society having to pay the costs [both financial and societal] for their 'upkeep'. Children have now become a possession akin to a new car, the latest mobile phone, or a nice holiday...once attained/used via social media to garner status amongst  the 'consumers' peer group, they are forgotten about and discarded/no longer of interest.

[Plan-b]

3 minutes ago, Boon said:

There was a funny graphic on the BBC showing that long-term sickness dwarfs the retiree bit, yet none of the mainstream media ever say it out loud.

I think the childcare think won't make much difference really. Some people are just too lazy and of course once the kids get old enough for school a lot of jobs simply isn't compatible with that routine. People will still decide it isn't worth their time because universal credit picks up the slack.

They are going to need sticks rather than carrots.

That chart is wrong, judging by this thread the amount of ordinary people 'discouraged' should be far higher 

[sancho panza]

19 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

This Silicone thing seems a huge benefit to the bigger US banks? Makes me wonder if they were pulling the strings.

Disclosure: I have a cash ISA at CBS! Those FSCS people are great, I've always liked them.

When you look at it, it does reflect on @DurhamBorn oft posited thesis that msot industries end up in the hands of 5 or 6 big players that aren't really in competition.

I don't see any way that there isn't some singificant consolidations in the US banking sector.This recent dislocation will be the first of many.

As there will be here.Some poor unfortunate shareholders will win the Coventry BS in the BTL losers lottery

23 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

That analogy only works if the bosses Merc pays more in road tax than all the trucks put together. Someone has noticed where the majority of income tax was coming from, and that the take must be falling rapidly in that bracket,

This is all about income tax, not pensions.

Until you said that the thought never even crossed my mind,then I start adding 2+2 and  ebfore you know it,it explains Hunt's largesse(largesse -meh,giving you back your own moeny).

I am very right wing(haven't voted Tory since 06),the more I see of the Tories,the more I despiar.Life under Hancock was awful,life under PM Hunt with the CCP playbook will be beyond that.

19 hours ago, belfastchild said:

I know someone did 1 year at plymouth. They had always wanted to be one, did everything right to get on the course. Ended up getting a job in IT because they didnt think they would be a taxi service for drunks and fat people. The loved the rest of it but taking on that much student debt for less money than they are on on an IT apprenticeship scheme says it all.
Said their supervisor said the average time in job was something like 3-5 years post grad? That seems to be what you are saying in your comments? Again a lot of dough to spend for a 3-5 year career.

Our Trust(and many others have an inhouse route where they take your uni fees from your salary.You qualify as a Techinican first.I think the main driver of them doing that was that the people who come through the 3 year uni degree route jsut don't last that long.Imagine one month you're third manning with a Para and a Tech,no real legal or clinical reponsibility as they do the driving and any mistakes are on the Para.

Then a month or two down the line,you get sent out, in charge of a vehcile with trainee tech in tow who's just out of trainee tech school,two or three shifts into their career,isn't familair with the equipment or how to use it under pressure and you go to an unexpected 50 yo cardiac arrest where you're first on scene.The family are screaming/crying and asking you if they'll be ok.Family member attempting CPR.Control says they're zero status and nearest back up crew is running from another city 20 miles away.ETA 25.Your heart sinks,you get the trainee on the chest,then you realsie you need to get an airway in and gain IV access.You get a family member on the chest.Tell your trainee to get an airway while you get the cannula kit out.They give you a blank look.Your heart sinks.you reach for the airway bag.As you do ,you realise the family member isn't giving effective compressions.Your heart sinks.You give the airway bag back to the trainee........etc etc

Last year we lost a lot of expereinced 3-5 year experience paras and the bulk of the 10 year plus paras who were too young to do another year or two for pension.We're falling back to a position where the bulk of some shifts is being covered with 1-2 years post qual.It's jsut going to get worse.

The new paras aren't being given expereinced crew mates to ease them into the decison making chair.It just increases the churn more.'Trial by fire' we call it.

Once you're bedded in and moving up Band 6 things ease off both finacially and also job wise(you've dealt most of your major firsts) but in all honesty,a £50k debt for a £27k job just doesn't add up,especially when your student debt is tied to RPI

[JoeDavola]

11 minutes ago, marceau said:

The age of consent is OVER.

Fucking superb.

Edited March 15, 2023 by JoeDavola

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

I was discussing this in RL (I know!) the other day.

Modern art has little intrinsic value, as in it doesn't have the hundreds of hours spent creating a statue or top quality oil painting, but it does acquire and, much more importantly, retain an extrinsic value from the publicity and hype surrounding it.

Andy Warhol's art was amateurish but sells for a fortune owing to the publicity that he attracted in life. Contemporary examples of such are "Banksy" (Robin Gunningham), Tracey Emin and Damien Hurst.

Amateurish rubbish they may be but as they now have their place in the history of art they have and will retain value IMO.

Sorry @FH I disagree, and think this is very much the 'old school' thinking of art i.e. the painting has got to look like 'real life'/a photograph; if this is the case why not just take a photograph?. I am not saying that there is some rubbish out there; and people are being 'taken in', but art is about as much the expression/idea at its base as the quality of the technique use to express it. This said, I do believe any piece of art and the artist should be challenged on what they are purporting in their claims/justification for what they have created.

Edited March 15, 2023 by MrXxxx

[Underwhelmed]

Things moving fast, will the Yanks really sanction their middle east partners for investing in Iran?

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-investment-iran-could-happen-very-quickly-after-agreement-minister-2023-03-15/

Any recommended Saudi ETFs?

Edited March 15, 2023 by Underwhelmed

[M S E Refugee]

25 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Would be happy [well accepting] of this if they provided the infrastructure, but travelling by Public Transport in the UK is getting worse and worse; akin to some Developing countries, especially in comparison to most Northern European countries.

Beeching destroyed much of the Transport Network in the 60's.

[afly]

Doing unconscious bias training at work. Seems that AI doesn't have time for such bullshit

 

 

[Long-game]

40 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

This is really to get in place a system so they can say to bennies,no excuse now you can work,there is the childcare for you.Might be in this budget,or later,but i suspect with 30 hours free childcare we are heading towards 25 hours to 30 hours being the minimum expected work before you dont have to attend the jobcentre.

Funny enough it will suit me and the other half, she can go back to full time and I will take on another part time role, perhaps self employed work. For many although not all, it will be a bonus. Particularly with elderly parents not managing with childcare the same, we already pay for some childcare every week at the mo.

[F150]

FTSE looking good

[HousePriceMania]

44 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Things seem to be getting interesting in the EU I'm down 10% from ATH now too but trying to hold tight to mainly oilies and EM shares

 

Gotta make sure the EU stop raising IRs too.

1 minute ago, F150 said:

FTSE looking good

I wish someone suggested selling up a couple of days ago

[Alifelessbinary]

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

My Ambulance Trust is apparently beginning an overtime ban in the new tax year.Lot of staff do overtime to make ends meet/pay for some nice things in life.The bulk of staff are band 3/4/5 between £22k and £30k.Lot living in flat shares/,some HMO's till they can get a flat share running.There are a fair few staff doing 3 overtimes a month.

I think thigns are really going to bite a lot more people this year as things like this and the council tax/food/fuel rises start kicking in and as people's mortgages move off fixes onto variables.

When I start commenting on how people on bennies are getting 10% I don't get any of the grief or negative comments I would have expected.Lot of people are beginnign to see it as unsutaianble imho

 

I agree,Sadiq and the progressives really haven't thought this through.It's going to be interesting to see how said trades respond to being labelled far right/anti vaxxers etc.

I'm starting to find this deeply unsettling when hard working people who provide essential services are being shafted, so that the non-productives can be placated to not riot. The system is going to be tested to the limit soon, as people are now finally waking up and getting angry. 

With regards to ULEZ most of the trades are just adding this price onto their price/day rate. I live just inside the ULEZ (although soon it will cover the whole of London) and it's a real pain in the ass for people who are already struggling.  It's clearly all about the money, as otherwise they'd have to advertise it as pay £12,50 and you can pollute as much as you like.

Sadiq has been a nightmare for London but people blindly vote for him as the Labour candidate. I don't really care about political parties I just want people who can make a positive impact.

[HousePriceMania]

53 minutes ago, dnb24 said:

SVB contagion into Europe?

BNP paribas trading halted.

societe generale also down 8%

 

Let's not forget...

 

[Frank Hovis]

Just now, MrXxxx said:

Sorry @FH I disagree, and think this is very much the 'old school' thinking of art i.e. The painting has got to look like 'real life'/a photography; if this is the case why not just take a photograph?. I am not saying that there is some rubbish out there; and people are being 'taken in', but art is about as much the expression/idea at its base as the quality of the technique use to express it. This said, I do believe any piece of art and the artist should be challenged on what they are purporting in their claims/justification for what they have created.

 

I would say that genuine art is about something valuable being created by someone with skill and talent who then puts a vast amount of their time into the piece.

Conceptual Art, your point about the expression / idea, is yes also art but the end product is poor.  When you have to weave a whole story around something in order to give it menaing and value then you have to do that because there is no value there.

Joseph Beuys made 100 identical "Filzanzugs" or felt suits.

https://www.tate.org.uk/art/artworks/beuys-felt-suit-ar00092

 

He claimed that the reason for making them was:

Beuys claimed he was rescued, barely alive, from the burning Stuka by Tatar nomads and swathed in fat and felt to resurrect him. It was a tale that explained not just his survival but his rebirth as a radical visionary out of the ashes of his youth in the Nazi era. The trouble was, it was a lie. Does that matter? Is it still a useful fable, part of his crazy vision, or should we suspect that his entire artistic output is similarly dishonest, or even that it is tainted by a past he never truly rejected or explained?

https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2018/apr/16/joseph-beuys-utopia-at-the-stag-monuments-review-galerie-thaddaeus-ropac-london

As noted there: it was a lie.

Even if that lie was true what have we but one hundred grey felt suits that have not been finished - no buttons, hemmed trousers.

 

And if a buy a shark, slice it in a half, and put in a glass cabinet filled with formaldehyde I have done as much as Damien Hurst did.

I do not accept that the straightforward expression of artistic ideas has anything like the worth of a work by a genuinely skilled artist who has put so much effort into a piece.

If the Mona Lisa, for instance, had zero back story and the painter was unknown then it would still be a thing of beauty to hang upon the wall.

An unfinished grey felt suit would be down the charity shop, half a shark in a glass tank down the tip.

It may all be art and have some value but art is very much unequal in worth and value.

[Ash4781b]

52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

This is really to get in place a system so they can say to bennies,no excuse now you can work,there is the childcare for you.Might be in this budget,or later,but i suspect with 30 hours free childcare we are heading towards 25 hours to 30 hours being the minimum expected work before you dont have to attend the jobcentre.

Surely there will be calls for it to be universal entitlement? Then can do nothing , or in pub whatever on benefits all day.and from when the child is very young. 

[sancho panza]

11 hours ago, mcdongle said:

Bit of doom and gloom from NZ today.

 

https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/120314/dramatic-slide-house-prices-affecting-both-aucklands-most-expensive-and

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/120331/new-zealands-current-account-deficit-widest-record-2022-forecast-narrow-tourism

The links been pulled .Here's anotehr to show that there's a price for two years under jackboot jacinda.First a quote from CS Lewis I think I read on here first

'Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience. They may be more likely to go to Heaven yet at the same time likelier to make a Hell of earth. This very kindness stings with intolerable insult. To be “cured” against one’s will and cured of states which we may not regard as disease is to be put on a level of those who have not yet reached the age of reason or those who never will; to be classed with infants, imbeciles, and domestic animals.'

 

 

NZ banks must be close to imploding???

https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/news-new-zealands-house-prices-now-in-freefall-4421

New Zealand’s house prices now in freefall

GLOBAL PROPERTY GUIDE NEWS TEAM | March 15, 2023

---

Real house prices were down 18.13% during 2022

New Zealand’s housing market has experienced a sharp turnaround, amidst falling demand caused by rising borrowing costs. Median house prices dropped by a whopping 18.13% (inflation-adjusted) in 2022 from a year earlier, in sharp contrast to a year-on-year growth of 14.02% in the previous year. In fact, it is now its worst performance in recent history.

On a quarterly basis, real house prices dropped 4% in Q4 2022. 

In February 2023, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) further by 50 basis points to 4.75%, its tenth consecutive rate hike since October 2021 and now the highest level in almost 15 years, in an effort to rein in inflationary pressures.

4 hours ago, Errol said:

Who on earth puts a 1-2 yr old in care? These people shouldn't be having children if they can't be bothered to look after them.

People who buy £200,000 box houses in Leicester so both parents can work to pay the mortgage and be farmed for money to pay the bennies.The whole scam is running out of suckers

[darkmarket]

1 hour ago, dnb24 said:

SVB contagion into Europe?

BNP paribas trading halted.

societe generale also down 8%

In our view, the crisis began in earnest 10 years ago this week. On August 9, 2007, BNP Paribas announced that, because their fund managers could not value the assets in three mutual funds, they were suspending redemptions.

https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2017/8/6/looking-back-the-financial-crisis-began-10-years-ago-this-week

Worth remembering today of all days.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, marceau said:

 

If there's a liquidity problem the trash will get dumped first.

Maybe it is!

FYI Credit Suisse trading halted down 20%