Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Calcutta]

There's no way this stops now, there's fuck all the fed can do, none of the data counts for shit, they've fucked it. 

Black Monday is coming, might be a few months off yet, but it's coming. The real question now is how low are out ladders going and what is going to whipsaw back hardest once the dust settles?

[HousePriceMania]

5 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

There's no way this stops now, there's fuck all the fed can do, none of the data counts for shit, they've fucked it. 

Black Monday is coming, might be a few months off yet, but it's coming. The real question now is how low are out ladders going and what is going to whipsaw back hardest once the dust settles?

Are we going to see another credit crunch over the next 12 months ?

[sancho panza]

Basement thesis not only being confiremd but also spread in the more enlightened sections of Western Media.

US/UK/EU jsut appear intent on speeding their own demise,their only plan being to offer EM's like Saudi a share in our banking system if they give us some oil.Meh!!!

 

 

More at the link

https://unherd.com/2023/03/how-russia-and-china-overtook-the-west/

For the past year, Nato countries, led by the US, have strived to nudge the rest of the world into providing military aid for Ukraine and sanctioning Russia, in the hope of isolating the latter. They have, by and large, failed on both counts. Western officials might point out that 141 of 193 countries supported a recent UN resolution demanding Russia withdraw from Ukraine, but the 32 abstaining countries included China, India, Pakistan and South Africa — which alone account for around 40% of the global population.

Despite the West’s attempts to “globalise” the conflict, only 33 nations — representing just over one-eighth of the global population — have imposed sanctions on Russia and sent military aid to Ukraine: the UK, US, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan and the EU — in other words, those countries that are directly under the US sphere of influence, which in many cases involves a significant US military presence. The remaining nations, comprising close to 90% of the world’s population, have refused to follow suit. If anything, the war has actually strengthened Russian relations with a number of major non-Western countries, including China and India, and accelerated the rise of a new international order in which it is the West that looks increasingly isolated, not Russia.

Edited March 20, 2023 by sancho panza

[Calcutta]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Are we going to see another credit crunch over the next 12 months ?

I have no idea what bullshit names they're going to think up for it, fact of the matter is they've fucked it and the only way out is a massive destruction of trillions of fake money. Then printing a load more to bail their pals out and save the system.

 

[Axeman123]

3 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

So my question to you is, if you had 400k and no inclination to learn what we have on here, what's the best passive approach for investing this?

Right now I would suggest bunging the lot into NS&I! It is underwritten by the treasury, and so the nominal sterling value is totally safe. There is still obviously the risk of inflation or currency devaluation, but (no offense intended  by this description) a financially unsophisticated person won't grasp that anyway but they will notice and go mental at you about a temporary 5% adverse swing in something like an EM equities ETF.

[dev.null]

10 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

I have no idea what bullshit names they're going to think up for it, fact of the matter is they've fucked it and the only way out is a massive destruction of trillions of fake money. Then printing a load more to bail their pals out and save the system.

 

I can tell you whatever it is, it will be for your OWN GOOD or at least SOMEBODY'S OWN GOOD!

[Onsamui]

26 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Are we going to see another credit crunch over the next 12 months ?

26th April 2023.

Edited March 20, 2023 by Onsamui

[sancho panza]

via Lyn Alden

Firstly saying US rate headed lower then also stating she's bullish oilies here,same as me,doesn't see deamnd dipping much even with a US recession

[HousePriceMania]

6 minutes ago, Onsamui said:

26th April 2023.

From them or until then ?

Very precise date ?

[Onsamui]

7 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

From them or until then ?

Very precise date ?

Informed Hunch.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

36 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Basement thesis not only being confiremd but also spread in the more enlightened sections of Western Media.

US/UK/EU jsut appear intent on speeding their own demise,their only plan being to offer EM's like Saudi a share in our banking system if they give us some oil.Meh!!!

 

 

More at the link

https://unherd.com/2023/03/how-russia-and-china-overtook-the-west/

For the past year, Nato countries, led by the US, have strived to nudge the rest of the world into providing military aid for Ukraine and sanctioning Russia, in the hope of isolating the latter. They have, by and large, failed on both counts. Western officials might point out that 141 of 193 countries supported a recent UN resolution demanding Russia withdraw from Ukraine, but the 32 abstaining countries included China, India, Pakistan and South Africa — which alone account for around 40% of the global population.

Despite the West’s attempts to “globalise” the conflict, only 33 nations — representing just over one-eighth of the global population — have imposed sanctions on Russia and sent military aid to Ukraine: the UK, US, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan and the EU — in other words, those countries that are directly under the US sphere of influence, which in many cases involves a significant US military presence. The remaining nations, comprising close to 90% of the world’s population, have refused to follow suit. If anything, the war has actually strengthened Russian relations with a number of major non-Western countries, including China and India, and accelerated the rise of a new international order in which it is the West that looks increasingly isolated, not Russia.

I bet the dude in the back row with the Stetson is a good laugh after a drink.

The current western leadership deserves to fail. That the WEF predicted a multi-polar world by 2030 suggests that it could be planned. Might be going differently to the plan, of course.

[HousePriceMania]

19 minutes ago, Onsamui said:

Informed Hunch.

Based on ?

 

[snaga]

2 hours ago, Plan-b said:

If you look on Carbs as simply being sugar you wont go far wrong 

that's because carbs are sugar molecules chained together in to nice long strings for easy mass consumption.

[leonardratso]

4 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Start off by putting the max in premium bonds as most people understand them and they are more like fun, then think about shuffling into other banks and stuff.

also open PBs for the kids < 16 Yo if she has them, 50K max each, get it out before 16Yo though cos it goes into their names then.

[RJT1979]

Ubs bounced back. Clown world. Fed buying

 

 

[Plan-b]

4 minutes ago, snaga said:

that's because carbs are sugar molecules chained together in to nice long strings for easy mass consumption.

Yes, roughly 70% of morning cereal is carbs; if you removed that 70% and substituted it for sugar and poured milk on it most would find that unpalatable, what's left is not much good for you either. I have the same personal opinion for bread.

My diet changed forever many years ago after reading 'Wheat Belly' I imagine there are more up to date recommendations but essentially I do not hold with the eat whole grains mantra.

[harp]

2 hours ago, sleepwello&#x27;nights said:

So you're well down then if you started before May 2022.

In BTC? No, I was buying Dec/ Jan time so up on that. But, things change fast as we know and ladders in previous shares are nearly there to start to come back in. 
 

[King Penda]

5 hours ago, Kevin Redshaw said:

Being serious though, this is a great way of getting through to brainwashed Brits who are living in denial - take the piss.

It’s what I love the banter I was the same with covid and blm. 

[Napoleon Dynamite]

4 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Is anyone selling or buying yet ?

Buying soon.  Have to load up SIPP before the end of the tax year (to avoid punitive tax rates).

[HousePriceMania]

Just been shopping...

 

[HousePriceMania]

Move along, nothing to see here...

 

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, Calcutta said:

I have no idea what bullshit names they're going to think up for it, fact of the matter is they've fucked it and the only way out is a massive destruction of trillions of fake money. Then printing a load more to bail their pals out and save the system.

 

Hussman's latest update about deranged Fed policy. Re shares it's the 'white space' that worries him. It does seemed to get filled but it could be different this time.

[Democorruptcy]

5 hours ago, Petatep said:

Tell her to also watch out for banks that appear (on the surface) to be seperate entities but are part of the same group and can have the 85k protection spread across the whole group.

There's a BoE list here but it's only from June 2021, don't know if it's been updated since.

Clydesdale-Yorkshire-Virgin could be a good one to watch amounts.

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/prudential-regulation/authorisations/which-firms-does-the-pra-regulate/2021/list-of-banking-brands-june-2021.pdf

[leonardratso]

them banks done fucked us again clyde.

[HousePriceMania]

43 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

them banks done fucked us again clyde.