Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Starsend]

51 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

them banks done fucked us again clyde.

They sho did bonnie, you cunt.

[Long time lurking]

8 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Apologies in advance if this is a thread derailment but in light of what's happened and potentially will happen with the banks, I have a bit of an emergency so I need to tap into the hive mind's collective wisdom.

 

Just discovered my sister has 400k in Barclays 🤦

 

Background: brother in law passed away from cancer two years ago, his pension payout was huge, plus she sold her old house. I didn't know the details as I'm very much a mind my own business type. This morning she tells me she's heard something at work about "problems with banks and only 85k is guaranteed, is this right?" 🙄

 

So my question to you is, if you had 400k and no inclination to learn what we have on here, what's the best passive approach for investing this? It's going to need to be something involving minimum intervention, somewhere to stick it for the long term. She's happy to put some in shares so I'm thinking something along the lines of oilies and emerging markets. But what else? 

 

DYOR applies, obviously. I'm not the "you gave me advice and now it's fucked so you're a cunt" type, so on my head be it with whatever route I take for her. Just trying to get some ideas as this has disaster written all over it.

 

Thanks in advance.

NS&I it`s the government your capital will be safe 100% of it ,if it`s only safety you are looking for, there are many ways you can hold it premium bonds ,bonds instant access, fixed term etc just go to the site 

[Boglet]

3 hours ago, Napoleon Dynamite said:

Buying soon.  Have to load up SIPP before the end of the tax year (to avoid punitive tax rates).

I've got my year's higher rate taxable amount sitting in my vanguard SIPP as cash, waiting 😬

I think they pay 3.75% on cash.

Edited March 20, 2023 by Boglet

[HousePriceMania]

 

1 minute ago, Long time lurking said:

NS&I it`s the government your NOMINAL capital will MIGHT be safe 100% of it ,if it`s only safety you are looking for, there are many ways you can hold it premium bonds ,bonds instant access, fixed term etc just go to the site 

FTFY

[Long time lurking]

5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Basement thesis not only being confiremd but also spread in the more enlightened sections of Western Media.

US/UK/EU jsut appear intent on speeding their own demise,their only plan being to offer EM's like Saudi a share in our banking system if they give us some oil.Meh!!!

 

 

More at the link

https://unherd.com/2023/03/how-russia-and-china-overtook-the-west/

For the past year, Nato countries, led by the US, have strived to nudge the rest of the world into providing military aid for Ukraine and sanctioning Russia, in the hope of isolating the latter. They have, by and large, failed on both counts. Western officials might point out that 141 of 193 countries supported a recent UN resolution demanding Russia withdraw from Ukraine, but the 32 abstaining countries included China, India, Pakistan and South Africa — which alone account for around 40% of the global population.

Despite the West’s attempts to “globalise” the conflict, only 33 nations — representing just over one-eighth of the global population — have imposed sanctions on Russia and sent military aid to Ukraine: the UK, US, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan and the EU — in other words, those countries that are directly under the US sphere of influence, which in many cases involves a significant US military presence. The remaining nations, comprising close to 90% of the world’s population, have refused to follow suit. If anything, the war has actually strengthened Russian relations with a number of major non-Western countries, including China and India, and accelerated the rise of a new international order in which it is the West that looks increasingly isolated, not Russia.

Yeh but no but yeh

Mr Bliken was there all last week telling them how nasty Russians are especially so the Wagner group 

Is it a coincidence that a Chinese mine in the central African Republic was attacked the day after he left ,a part of Africa where Russia/Wagner have been very active in providing security 

[DoINeedOne]

13 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Serious question…. 

Is there a good way of holding spare cash in your “Tax Free Stocks & Share ISA” as just that - BUT cash getting interest. 

For example if someone has taken advantage of 4 years of their £20k annual allowance in their S&S ISA (£80k),  and invested this - and has recently taken profits and taken their investments “off the table” and has gone to cash and say has now £200k (Inc. profits) sitting in cash (‘powder dry’) still in the tax free S&S ISA vehicle. 

Surely there must be a ‘fund’ available on Hargreaves & Lansdowne that does not rise or fall but returns a yield of 3-4% for those sitting in cash? 

@DurhamBorn et al? 
 

 

HL as far as im aware pay interest on cash balances sometimes they send me payments in my account under interest 

Its a stocks and share isa too 

 

Just not sure what the rate is 

[MrXxxx]

Thought others may enjoy this, if nothing else it shows critical thinking/how to provide a well formed argument. It's a series of four short [5 min max reading time] articles on the suggested impact of Brexit to the current day/future economy, and evidence to support/detract points made by political/economic commentators:

1. https://konstantinkisin.substack.com/p/do-gloomy-imf-forecasts-prove-brexit

2. https://konstantinkisin.substack.com/p/why-mark-carney-is-wrong-about-brexit

3. https://konstantinkisin.substack.com/p/is-wage-inflation-a-sign-that-brexit

4. https://konstantinkisin.substack.com/p/did-brexit-wreck-the-city-of-london

[Long time lurking]

10 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

 

FTFY

Nah you will get every penny back what you will be able to buy with it is a different matter but i think we are long way from that as in Zimbabwe 

The banks are going tits up because of a lack of liquidity as in not enough money ,hyper inflation is not even on the horizon,big time stagflation is where we are heading  

The inflation is coming from outside,the CB`s can`t afford to borrow at the rates the markets demand ,then those rates makes the tide go out where you can then see who`s bollock naked 

#RockAndHardplace

[Bobthebuilder]

14 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Serious question…. 

Is there a good way of holding spare cash in your “Tax Free Stocks & Share ISA” as just that - BUT cash getting interest. 

For example if someone has taken advantage of 4 years of their £20k annual allowance in their S&S ISA (£80k),  and invested this - and has recently taken profits and taken their investments “off the table” and has gone to cash and say has now £200k (Inc. profits) sitting in cash (‘powder dry’) still in the tax free S&S ISA vehicle. 

Surely there must be a ‘fund’ available on Hargreaves & Lansdowne that does not rise or fall but returns a yield of 3-4% for those sitting in cash? 

@DurhamBorn et al? 
 

 

I get somewhere around 2% on the cash in my HL SS ISA, I didn't realise they paid interest on cash balance until recently. Thought it was my supreme stock picking skills causing the increases every month, not interest. Doh. 

[MrXxxx]

21 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Serious question…. 

Is there a good way of holding spare cash in your “Tax Free Stocks & Share ISA” as just that - BUT cash getting interest. 

For example if someone has taken advantage of 4 years of their £20k annual allowance in their S&S ISA (£80k),  and invested this - and has recently taken profits and taken their investments “off the table” and has gone to cash and say has now £200k (Inc. profits) sitting in cash (‘powder dry’) still in the tax free S&S ISA vehicle. 

Surely there must be a ‘fund’ available on Hargreaves & Lansdowne that does not rise or fall but returns a yield of 3-4% for those sitting in cash? 

@DurhamBorn et al? 
 

 

Well at the moment most Brokers pay interest on cash [~1.5-2%], and whilst in all you you wouldn't be paying any fees. As an alternative have a look at this video for short-term cash equivalents [

].

[MrXxxx]

20 minutes ago, Boglet said:

I've got my year's higher rate taxable amount sitting in my vanguard SIPP as cash, waiting 😬

I think they pay 3.75% on cash.

Not anymore they don't, its now dropped down to 2.2% [https://www.vanguardinvestor.co.uk/need-help/answer/will-i-receive-interest-on-cash-held-in-my-account].

[MrXxxx]

13 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

HL as far as im aware pay interest on cash balances sometimes they send me payments in my account under interest 

Its a stocks and share isa too 

 

Just not sure what the rate is 

1-2% [https://www.hl.co.uk/charges-and-interest-rates]

[MrXxxx]

10 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Thought it was my supreme stock picking skills causing the increases every month, not interest.

Well 0.05% accounted for those 'high level' skills! :-)

[No One]

9 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Apologies in advance if this is a thread derailment but in light of what's happened and potentially will happen with the banks, I have a bit of an emergency so I need to tap into the hive mind's collective wisdom.

 

Just discovered my sister has 400k in Barclays 🤦

 

Background: brother in law passed away from cancer two years ago, his pension payout was huge, plus she sold her old house. I didn't know the details as I'm very much a mind my own business type. This morning she tells me she's heard something at work about "problems with banks and only 85k is guaranteed, is this right?" 🙄

 

So my question to you is, if you had 400k and no inclination to learn what we have on here, what's the best passive approach for investing this? It's going to need to be something involving minimum intervention, somewhere to stick it for the long term. She's happy to put some in shares so I'm thinking something along the lines of oilies and emerging markets. But what else? 

 

DYOR applies, obviously. I'm not the "you gave me advice and now it's fucked so you're a cunt" type, so on my head be it with whatever route I take for her. Just trying to get some ideas as this has disaster written all over it.

 

Thanks in advance.

your sister gets a 

 

Maximum FSCS is 85k , look up youtube videos about fscs. 

Spread 400k /85k = 5 banks to stay safe.

Open a stocks and shares ISA on T212 and put in 20k. What to buy I cant advise. Personally I like dividend stocks that are high quality, but your sister needs to get her own financial advise and choose by her self. 

Why not get relatively safe UK gilts?

 

[Long time lurking]

National currencies 

 

[Long time lurking]

2 minutes ago, No One said:

your sister gets a 

 

Maximum FSCS is 85k , look up youtube videos about fscs. 

Spread 400k /85k = 5 banks to stay safe.

Open a stocks and shares ISA on T212 and put in 20k. What to buy I cant advise. Personally I like dividend stocks that are high quality, but your sister needs to get her own financial advise and choose by her self. 

Why not get relatively safe UK gilts?

 

And never forget they removed the word grantee and replaced it with protected 

[reformed nice guy]

14 minutes ago, No One said:

Why not get relatively safe UK gilts?

To clarify, buying gilts is not a simple thing. Lots to understand. Would she take thr time to learn? Probably not. Something extremely broadly diversified would be better

Edited March 20, 2023 by reformed nice guy

[SpectrumFX]

37 minutes ago, Jesus Wept said:

Serious question…. 

Is there a good way of holding spare cash in your “Tax Free Stocks & Share ISA” as just that - BUT cash getting interest. 

For example if someone has taken advantage of 4 years of their £20k annual allowance in their S&S ISA (£80k),  and invested this - and has recently taken profits and taken their investments “off the table” and has gone to cash and say has now £200k (Inc. profits) sitting in cash (‘powder dry’) still in the tax free S&S ISA vehicle. 

Surely there must be a ‘fund’ available on Hargreaves & Lansdowne that does not rise or fall but returns a yield of 3-4% for those sitting in cash? 

@DurhamBorn et al? 
 

 

Are there limits on transfers between ISAs?

If not you could you open a cash ISA with a better rate and transfer cash back and forth?

How well that would work in practice would depend on how much hassle the transfers were, and whether you could find an instant access cash ISA paying a decent rate.

Has anybody done this?

 

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

Are there limits on transfers between ISAs?

If not you could you open a cash ISA with a better rate and transfer cash back and forth?

How well that would work in practice would depend on how much hassle the transfers were, and whether you could find an instant access cash ISA paying a decent rate.

Has anybody done this?

 

Whenever I have done a cash to SS ISA, the transfer took around 30 days, so not perfect. 

[Eventually Right]

On 17/03/2023 at 15:07, Plan-b said:

Number 2 gets my vote

Gold down 0.5%, Silver down 0.3%, GDXJ up 2.15%

(I'm fully expecting a rug pull/pullback anytime)

[Bobthebuilder]

30 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Well 0.05% accounted for those 'high level' skills! :-)

I am getting around 6 to 7% divi yield across the holdings, this is somewhat skewed by a rather large GDXJ holding that pays fuck all with a 0.55% fee. 

[MrXxxx]

18 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I am getting around 6 to 7% divi yield across the holdings, this is somewhat skewed by a rather large GDXJ holding that pays fuck all with a 0.55% fee. 

OK you were right the first time, it's got nothing to do with your skills in stock picking, you're just a 'Jammy bugger'! :-)

[Plan-b]

39 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

Gold down 0.5%, Silver down 0.3%, GDXJ up 2.15%

(I'm fully expecting a rug pull/pullback anytime)

It would always be preferable for the miners to front run or confirm a PM spike. The miners are considered to be the smart money amongst other smart money commercials I say that this event has not been confirmed.

We however are not amongst the smart money so don't have inside information, they do.

The banking system will be stabilised whatever it takes whatever the cost. IMO.

That's the way I see this move. I'm prepared to take the wrath for my opinion but it's just that an opinion not advice founded on expertise.

As ever DYOR.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Jesus Wept said:

 

 

Thank you for your replies.
 

So am I correct in saying that if you have a HL S&S ISA you get the following interest TAX free on any surplus cash sitting in your H&L S&S Tax free ISA:

 

 

So 2% on balances above £100k tax free (that’s nearly comparable to a 3% savings account that you’d pay 40% higher rate tax on). 

The key word is "tiers". If you have £101,000 you only get 2% on what is above £100,000 i.e. £1,000

Your £100,000 is split across the 3 tiers below, e.g. £9,999 is only 1%, etc.

I couldn't understand my interest payment so queried it, got 3 or 4 replies that were no help but eventually somebody who knew how it actually worked. The dates of transactions matter as well, i.e. settlement date is different.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, SpectrumFX said:

Are there limits on transfers between ISAs?

If not you could you open a cash ISA with a better rate and transfer cash back and forth?

How well that would work in practice would depend on how much hassle the transfers were, and whether you could find an instant access cash ISA paying a decent rate.

Has anybody done this?

 

I don't know of any limit but £85k might be something to consider. I've done Cash ISA to Cash ISA this year and that was easy. The rule is within 15 days. I've also done Shares ISA to Cash ISA this year and the rule for those is within 30 days, That can be a real ball ache, even if you are only transferring an amount thats already cash sat in your shares ISA. I complained when one went over time and got interest backdated to 15 days as a 'gesture of goodwill' and an ex-gratia payment.