Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Majorpain]

15 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The replies to that tweet are pathetic. Especially from people that have a blue tick for some unknown reason.

Because the shelves are still full, so obviously its price gouging and not a reduction in food supply or farmers costs going through the roof.  When they go in and the shelves are empty, because farmers wont produce food at a loss, it will probably be someone else's fault too.....

[No One]

12 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Looks like the Swamp is back for draining.

 

He can say whatever he wants, but like I've said before, and to use a swamp analogy....a swamp cannot be drained from the inside. Listening to Curtis Yarvin yesterday, he made a similar point about Desantis, if you do this its all in or dont bother.

[No One]

50 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Surprise...

 

BOE has no choice but to raise.

[feed]

8 minutes ago, No One said:

BOE has no choice but to raise.

What the BOE does makes absolutely no difference. 

[No One]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2023/02/02/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-bank-of-england-governor-andrew-bailey.html

[Plan-b]

13 minutes ago, feed said:

What the BOE does makes absolutely no difference. 

At the moment there is absolutely no attempt to fight inflation because high inflation is the plan and has been for some time.

When that plan changes we'll get a burst of higher than inflation interest rates.

Now get back to work the rest of you we need you to pay for everyone else - Bennies -Gov workers etc.

 

[BadAlchemy]

54 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The replies to that tweet are pathetic. Especially from people that have a blue tick for some unknown reason.

Not one single comment pointing out that we need to increase our domestic food supply here to bring prices down. Yet I saw three doggy day care vans out and about while on a short drive the other day; people still have spare money to put pet dogs in our fields instead of crops and livestock. So they can all eff off. Country needs to stop whinging and start doing some productive work. Party time is over.

[No One]

19 minutes ago, feed said:

What the BOE does makes absolutely no difference. 

And what do you base this on?

When the BOE raises rates it does 2 very important things that affects me, one, it puts a handbrake on the UK property market. Mortgages will go up, making affordability go down, making banks bond holdings to go down in value which tightens credit give out, which forces the banks to compete for savings rates.

In terms of inflation you may be right.

But in terms of the savings I will get in a bank it does a lot, I can get 1/2/5 year fixes at historic levels.

And house prices will come down.

 

Since I rent, dont own, have high savings and negligible debts [student loan] raising rates benefit me tremendously.

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

This is interesting. He does a deep dive on exactly how inflation figures are being gamed. 

 

Not news to anyone on here that headline inflation rate is absolute bullshit, but fascinating to see how the lie is crafted.

Edited March 22, 2023 by ThoughtCriminal

[M S E Refugee]

Just now, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is interesting. He does a deep dive on exactly how inflation figures are being gamed. 

 

Not news to anyone on here that headline inflation rate is absolute bullshit, but fascinating to see how the lie is crafted.

Judging by the comments on that Sky News Twitter thread about inflation even the hard of thinking can see that inflation figures are a lie.

They may be able to pull the Wool over the eyes of the public when it comes to Covid but they have no chance of doing this with inflation.

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

<Lurk mode off>

Exercise your mind:

https://tomluongo.me/2023/03/21/fdic-insurance-credit-suisse-day-fed-killed-europ/

The nub of it:

While at the same time, yes, including many (not TL?) notable commentators....

 

It was always about how, not if.

But this is no more about finance than covid was about health.

Inflation is a sideshow, merely about the devaluation of your money. 

The US has no "friends".  In this regard the UK is in Europe. 

If you buy the hypothesis then you know what to dos.

None of it is hard, just painful.

Tough love: It's a choice.

<Lurk mode on>

The USA looks to be getting close to nationalising their retail banking 

That's all anyone needs to know 

 

Edited March 22, 2023 by Long time lurking

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

 

They may be able to pull the Wool over the eyes of the public when it comes to Covid but they have no chance of doing this with inflation.

They don't need to, they just need to spin a suitable justification to make it palatable to steal redistribute the common mans wealth 

 

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

Because the shelves are still full, so obviously its price gouging and not a reduction in food supply or farmers costs going through the roof.  When they go in and the shelves are empty, because farmers wont produce food at a loss, it will probably be someone else's fault too.....

The inflation is mainly due to increasing input costs rather than shortages just look at how the countries that are not sanctioning themselves are doing

[M S E Refugee]

11 minutes ago, Loki said:

They don't need to, they just need to spin a suitable justification to make it palatable to steal redistribute the common mans wealth 

 

They know that the Government are lying about inflation, however you are correct in that they will scapegoat another group and the Morons will believe them.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Plan-b said:

At the moment there is absolutely no attempt to fight inflation because high inflation is the plan and has been for some time.

When that plan changes we'll get a burst of higher than inflation interest rates.

Now get back to work the rest of you we need you to pay for everyone else - Bennies -Gov workers etc.

 

A mate of mines daughter is living with a bloke with 5 kids,she has 2,all bennies.BUT she isnt down as living with him,she is down as renting an annex on his parents house,so he gets £3k a month bennies,she gets £1000 a month,plus she gets £700 a month for the "rent" at his parents that she doesnt pays o boosting her to £1700,between them £4700 a month,both have never worked.Oh and both his parents are ex council workers,both on PIP,both nothing wrong with them,both got out in their early 50s from the council on ill health and fat pensions.So that family alone ,none working,taking around £9k a month from those who do work.My son pays £500 a month tax in a warehouse,so it takes 14 of him and his workmates working to fund that one families bennies.If you count the schooling,NHS,all other costs more like 30 of them,So 30 low paid working really hard in a warehouse to pay for one family to coin in £9k a month.

That is where this country is.Bennies are off the scale,and then the fraud on top is huge.

My daughter married a gypsy.She lived on a camp while he sorted out a big static on his land,34 families on the camp,all on bennies,every one fraud,all had working partners,zero ever done.The warden from the council even helped them claim.

Its everywhere.Young decent working people are being destroyed .My work is really cross market effects and its off the scale.Its not even the tax,its the fact those people are consuming the same items,so everything the worker buys is shooting up because the freeloaders are consuming them as well,but the freeloaders are inflation protected.Its the worst policy set i have ever seen from any government ever.Its that bad.Its insane and cant last.Systemic collapse,or a horrible society for years and years that leads to a collapse.The only question is really will the working people allow all their assets to be taken first.The only way to push back the collapse date is massive change,or take all assets.

Edited March 22, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[DurhamBorn]

22 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

The inflation is mainly due to increasing input costs rather than shortages just look at how the countries that are not sanctioning themselves are doing

De-complex,these bozos running us have no clue.I was shocked at the BOE meeting i went to how little they understand the cycle and how inflation works under these macro conditions.I explained it in simple terms to the regional head here and he sort of got it.Dis-inflation runs down the chain at each point so the more you are down the chain the more you gain.This cost push inflation means its the start of the chain who gain the most and then everyone down the chain loses.

Why?

Because EVERY input needs paying more.If your the Potash company,you have only a few inputs,you capital mostly went on the big hole in the ground.If you the retailer,your have zillions of inputs all inflating,workers,lorries,packaging,the items,utilities,repair bills,etc etc etc.

This cycle distributes all margin back up the chain from down the chain.

50% + consuming what they dont produce.There was no  shortage of peppers last month,if the only people buying them earned their own money not from government.

Edited March 22, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[MrXxxx]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

A mate of mines daughter is living with a bloke with 5 kids,she has 2,all bennies.BUT she isnt down as living with him,she is down as renting an annex on his parents house,so he gets £3k a month bennies,she gets £1000 a month,plus she gets £700 a month for the "rent" at his parents that she doesnt pays o boosting her to £1700,between them £4700 a month,both have never worked.Oh and both his parents are ex council workers,both on PIP,both nothing wrong with them,both got out in their early 50s from the council on ill health and fat pensions.So that family alone ,none working,taking around £9k a month from those who do work.My son pays £500 a month tax in a warehouse,so it takes 14 of him and his workmates working to fund that one families bennies.If you count the schooling,NHS,all other costs more like 30 of them,So 30 low paid working really hard in a warehouse to pay for one family to coin in £9k a month.

That is where this country is.Bennies are off the scale,and then the fraud on top is huge.

My daughter married a gypsy.She lived on a camp while he sorted out a big static on his land,34 families on the camp,all on bennies,every one fraud,all had working partners,zero ever done.The warden from the council even helped them claim.

Its everywhere.Young decent working people are being destroyed .My work is really cross market effects and its off the scale.Its not even the tax,its the fact those people are consuming the same items,so everything the worker buys is shooting up because the freeloaders are consuming them as well,but the freeloaders are inflation protected.Its the worst policy set i have ever seen from any government ever.Its that bad.Its insane and cant last.Systemic collapse,or a horrible society for years and years that leads to a collapse.The only question is really will the working people allow all their assets to be taken first.The only way to push back the collapse date is massive change,or take all assets.

The issue is that people no longer have shame/social stigma to worry about....but then if you look at the 'example' they are shown by the political class [via The Media] is it any surprise?...only the hardworking [foolish] are 'playing by the rules', as a result are being taken advantage of, and hence why I decided...

 

[Talking Monkey]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

A mate of mines daughter is living with a bloke with 5 kids,she has 2,all bennies.BUT she isnt down as living with him,she is down as renting an annex on his parents house,so he gets £3k a month bennies,she gets £1000 a month,plus she gets £700 a month for the "rent" at his parents that she doesnt pays o boosting her to £1700,between them £4700 a month,both have never worked.Oh and both his parents are ex council workers,both on PIP,both nothing wrong with them,both got out in their early 50s from the council on ill health and fat pensions.So that family alone ,none working,taking around £9k a month from those who do work.My son pays £500 a month tax in a warehouse,so it takes 14 of him and his workmates working to fund that one families bennies.If you count the schooling,NHS,all other costs more like 30 of them,So 30 low paid working really hard in a warehouse to pay for one family to coin in £9k a month.

That is where this country is.Bennies are off the scale,and then the fraud on top is huge.

My daughter married a gypsy.She lived on a camp while he sorted out a big static on his land,34 families on the camp,all on bennies,every one fraud,all had working partners,zero ever done.The warden from the council even helped them claim.

Its everywhere.Young decent working people are being destroyed .My work is really cross market effects and its off the scale.Its not even the tax,its the fact those people are consuming the same items,so everything the worker buys is shooting up because the freeloaders are consuming them as well,but the freeloaders are inflation protected.Its the works policy set i have ever seen from any government ever.Its that bad.Its insane and cant last.Systemic collapse,or a horrible society for years and years that leads to a collapse.The only question is really will the working people allow all their assets to be taken first.The only way to push back the collapse date is massive change,or take all assets.

Is taking all assets an option, it would turbocharge the rate of people dropping out of work and joining the bennies crowd. Might buy a year or two, but once people saw that their wealth was being taken at an ever increasing rate they would stop working. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

A mate of mines daughter is living with a bloke with 5 kids,she has 2,all bennies.BUT she isnt down as living with him,she is down as renting an annex on his parents house,so he gets £3k a month bennies,she gets £1000 a month,plus she gets £700 a month for the "rent" at his parents that she doesnt pays o boosting her to £1700,between them £4700 a month,both have never worked.Oh and both his parents are ex council workers,both on PIP,both nothing wrong with them,both got out in their early 50s from the council on ill health and fat pensions.So that family alone ,none working,taking around £9k a month from those who do work.My son pays £500 a month tax in a warehouse,so it takes 14 of him and his workmates working to fund that one families bennies.If you count the schooling,NHS,all other costs more like 30 of them,So 30 low paid working really hard in a warehouse to pay for one family to coin in £9k a month.

That is where this country is.Bennies are off the scale,and then the fraud on top is huge.

My daughter married a gypsy.She lived on a camp while he sorted out a big static on his land,34 families on the camp,all on bennies,every one fraud,all had working partners,zero ever done.The warden from the council even helped them claim.

Its everywhere.Young decent working people are being destroyed .My work is really cross market effects and its off the scale.Its not even the tax,its the fact those people are consuming the same items,so everything the worker buys is shooting up because the freeloaders are consuming them as well,but the freeloaders are inflation protected.Its the worst policy set i have ever seen from any government ever.Its that bad.Its insane and cant last.Systemic collapse,or a horrible society for years and years that leads to a collapse.The only question is really will the working people allow all their assets to be taken first.The only way to push back the collapse date is massive change,or take all assets.

How does the fraud aspect of this get rolled back? Cutting bennies doesn't solve that. It would lessen the impact of it and put off some new fraudulent claims but those on board will only get off if they're thrown off. Either through enforcement or complete collapse removing entitlements for all.

Complete collapse would not be a nice place to be. Eventually charity to the truly deserving would be provided privately under Victorian conditions. The interim would be shit.

[mh9000]

25 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

A mate of mines daughter is living with a bloke with 5 kids,she has 2,all bennies.BUT she isnt down as living with him,she is down as renting an annex on his parents house,so he gets £3k a month bennies,she gets £1000 a month,plus she gets £700 a month for the "rent" at his parents that she doesnt pays o boosting her to £1700,between them £4700 a month,both have never worked.Oh and both his parents are ex council workers,both on PIP,both nothing wrong with them,both got out in their early 50s from the council on ill health and fat pensions.So that family alone ,none working,taking around £9k a month from those who do work.My son pays £500 a month tax in a warehouse,so it takes 14 of him and his workmates working to fund that one families bennies.If you count the schooling,NHS,all other costs more like 30 of them,So 30 low paid working really hard in a warehouse to pay for one family to coin in £9k a month.

That is where this country is.Bennies are off the scale,and then the fraud on top is huge.

My daughter married a gypsy.She lived on a camp while he sorted out a big static on his land,34 families on the camp,all on bennies,every one fraud,all had working partners,zero ever done.The warden from the council even helped them claim.

Its everywhere.Young decent working people are being destroyed .My work is really cross market effects and its off the scale.Its not even the tax,its the fact those people are consuming the same items,so everything the worker buys is shooting up because the freeloaders are consuming them as well,but the freeloaders are inflation protected.Its the worst policy set i have ever seen from any government ever.Its that bad.Its insane and cant last.Systemic collapse,or a horrible society for years and years that leads to a collapse.The only question is really will the working people allow all their assets to be taken first.The only way to push back the collapse date is massive change,or take all assets.

Think I already know the answer but do you see anything that suggests we (this country) might be changing course? 

Do you see the next govt being any better than the current if there is switch from blue to red as everyone seems to be predicting?

[Noallegiance]

Fascinating and apt given @DurhamBornhaving occasionally mentioned the threat from derivatives.

Worth the time to watch.

The analogy of derivative compression taken a step further is a derivative supernova.

 

[Plan-b]

3 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Is taking all assets an option, it would turbocharge the rate of people dropping out of work and joining the bennies crowd. Might buy a year or two, but once people saw that their wealth was being taken at an ever increasing rate they would stop working. 

Thats the 'plan'

[marceau]

1 hour ago, feed said:

What the BOE does makes absolutely no difference. 

Yes, the moment they could have had any impact has been and gone. They are now entirely reactive - dependant on the fed.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

12 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

The issue is that people no longer have shame/social stigma to worry about....but then if you look at the 'example' they are shown by the political class [via The Media] is it any surprise?...only the hardworking [foolish] are 'playing by the rules', as a result are being taken advantage of, and hence why I decided...

 

If I was defrauding the Government or anyone else on an ongoing basis I wouldn't tell anyone about it. This case is fraud amounting to tens of thousands of pounds. Should result in prison time.

[HousePriceMania]

From the FT comments on inflaiton...