Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[DurhamBorn]

19 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Is taking all assets an option, it would turbocharge the rate of people dropping out of work and joining the bennies crowd. Might buy a year or two, but once people saw that their wealth was being taken at an ever increasing rate they would stop working. 

Thats the point yes,it will (and is) speeding up,and it seems the polos all just want to buy those few years,none seem to have any ideas to stop it.They think at some point all the demand will right the ship,but it cant when we dont produce,or more,have the capacity to produce.They are still bringing in hundreds of thousands more people consuming,but not producing.

China and Russia looking on are simple making sure they dont go down the same road.They dont need to attack us or do anything at all,just let us die slowly.They probably prefer it this way,less chance of a hot war if we just drift off into the sunset.

"A nation that does not remember what it was yesterday,does not know where it is today"

Robert E Lee.

[DurhamBorn]

16 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

If I was defrauding the Government or anyone else on an ongoing basis I wouldn't tell anyone about it. This case is fraud amounting to tens of thousands of pounds. Should result in prison time.

In my town of 20k i would think 2k of the bennie claims are fraud.Likely 5 million in the country have some fraud in the claims.Its not policed at all.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

In my town of 20k i would think 2k of the bennie claims are fraud.Likely 5 million in the country have some fraud in the claims.Its not policed at all.

Zero consequences. Lots think if you can't beat them join them. Crime pays.

[belfastchild]

9 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

If I was defrauding the Government or anyone else on an ongoing basis I wouldn't tell anyone about it. This case is fraud amounting to tens of thousands of pounds. Should result in prison time.

Problem is, they have to be shopped and anyone who knows is doing the exact same thing.

Im not going into details here but as Ive mentioned before I had my eyes opened regularly going to Liverpool and the areas around. I can tell you a number of people offhand who I have met who are doing exactly the same as @DurhamBorn s example. One guy I know has 5 kids to three different mothers and currently working on the 4th. 4th split from partner and took the kids but he took his back so she is fucked. Quite literally fucked as she wanted to have another one as the first was turning 17 and bennies were running out, now she has none and as the stereotypical 45+ fat single mum on benefits Im probably more likely to get pregnant (and yes they have been through NHS IVF for fuck sake!).
Not only was she with a partner previously with a good job but had lied to them about it and was claiming benefits as a single mum living with 2 kids. The child support from the first dad was cash in hand and wasnt counted towards bennies either. Mum of course is living with a 70 year old DLA claimant in a nice big 4 bed house all by themselves. Council house, which the other sibling has now moved in to 'with kids' because abuse... So they get the right to buy after 70 year old pops their clogs and money runs out, along with the no bedroom tax and free car every 3 years.
The amount of fraud there is absolutely staggering and thats a family of four with 5 kids between them.
Count up from DBs example how much that actually costs and how many people like my nieces and nephews in min wage jobs/decent jobs with big student debt paying taxes that accounts for. One fucking family. They also work cash in hand in cleaning jobs and do the 20 hours tax credit thing (which has suddenly stopped with new claims as UC isnt as generous and increasingly making them work). They pool who picks the kids up from school because they cant as they are out working the jobs they arent supposed to be doing.
They talk about this stuff openly because they just assume everyone is on the take. When Im over visiting relatives they come and talk to me because Im out and about during the day so I must be on DLA or whatever as well!
Im lefty but I tell anyone who talks to me about single mothers or poor nurses (neighbour in England is a nurse with house paid off, EV and 3 btls they let out to staff at the hospital ffs!).
I mention the neighbour a couple of doors up who was on DLA for being an alchy and who the husband and son left. She came to my door one night asking how much the rates were as the UC people were now making her pay some of it. 'They make me pay all of it' says I.
I still get a surprise from my dentist receptionist when they ask 'do you still pay for your treatment?'.

The place is fucked.

[AlfredTheLittle]

2 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Zero consequences. Lots think if you can't beat them join them. Crime pays.

And no chance of it being policed because the people who would police it (who work in the benefits office) are all at it too - 16 hours work, kids on pip, and don't live with your partner. We've turned into Greece (but cold, with crap food)

[Boon]

Digitial currency you would think goes some way to solving fraud issues?

It is gonna be hard to move it elsewhere if the list of things allowed to buy with it is small and also it expires after a set amount of time.

It'll be marketed as equal but I don't think it will be. Somehow we have to get to a point where £1 made by working is worth more than £1 from benefits. 

[marceau]

36 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Is taking all assets an option, it would turbocharge the rate of people dropping out of work and joining the bennies crowd. Might buy a year or two, but once people saw that their wealth was being taken at an ever increasing rate they would stop working. 

The devil is in the detail. The average Joe can't just 'stop working' - he'll get fuck all from the state. Doley 'ultras' either have their entire lives (and the lives of everyone around them) configured around the claim or have some structural reason that makes it viable (disability, sperg children, index-linked DB pension etc).

I'm seeing lots of 'how does it get fixed' posts here since the budget. There is NOTHING waiting in the wings capable of rescuing the situation. NOTHING. The best you'll get is a Blair redux attempt, which will quickly fail because material conditions in the UK will not support the 90s paradigm they will be attempting to recreate. There also will imo, be no reindustrialisation, the human clay just isn't there to do it anymore. We'll have to bring in someone else and that will be on their terms, not ours.

As the British state bleeds, it will only delve further into fantasy, because to recognise reality is to recognise that the game is up. The elite regard workers as livestock and hold them in utter contempt, honesty in this system is relentlessly punished; so if you uncynically play along, you can expect to get farmed. The direction of travel is absolutely clear and it is not going to change.

I see some very clever people here are about to pull an HPC mark 2 and waste time assuming a resumption of sanity. There is no sanity possible with the British state, it is fundamentally insane and has been for a long time. There is what should happen and there is what will happen. Don't allow yourselves to be outplayed by doleys, gypos, 2nd rate trots and guys straight off the banana boat. Either understand the system and play along with it to your benefit, or get out and start somewhere new.

It's honestly a shit situation and I wish it wasn't happening. 

[marceau]

10 minutes ago, Boon said:

Digitial currency you would think goes some way to solving fraud issues?

It is gonna be hard to move it elsewhere if the list of things allowed to buy with it is small and also it expires after a set amount of time.

It'll be marketed as equal but I don't think it will be. Somehow we have to get to a point where £1 made by working is worth more than £1 from benefits. 

There will be MORE fraud under digital currency, not less.

[Calcutta]

10 minutes ago, marceau said:

The devil is in the detail. The average Joe can't just 'stop working' - he'll get fuck all from the state. Doley 'ultras' either have their entire lives (and the lives of everyone around them) configured around the claim or have some structural reason that makes it viable (disability, sperg children, index-linked DB pension etc).

I'm seeing lots of 'how does it get fixed' posts here since the budget. There is NOTHING waiting in the wings capable of rescuing the situation. NOTHING. The best you'll get is a Blair redux attempt, which will quickly fail because material conditions in the UK will not support the 90s paradigm they will be attempting to recreate. There also will imo, be no reindustrialisation, the human clay just isn't there to do it anymore. We'll have to bring in someone else and that will be on their terms, not ours.

As the British state bleeds, it will only delve further into fantasy, because to recognise reality is to recognise that the game is up. The elite regard workers as livestock and hold them in utter contempt, honesty in this system is relentlessly punished; so if you uncynically play along, you can expect to get farmed. The direction of travel is absolutely clear and it is not going to change.

I see some very clever people here are about to pull an HPC mark 2 and waste time assuming a resumption of sanity. There is no sanity possible with the British state, it is fundamentally insane and has been for a long time. There is what should happen and there is what will happen. Don't allow yourselves to be outplayed by doleys, gypos, 2nd rate trots and guys straight off the banana boat. Either understand the system and play along with it to your benefit, or get out and start somewhere new.

It's honestly a shit situation and I wish it wasn't happening. 

Outstanding post.

It's fucked let it die.

[Loki]

11 minutes ago, marceau said:

The devil is in the detail. The average Joe can't just 'stop working' - he'll get fuck all from the state. Doley 'ultras' either have their entire lives (and the lives of everyone around them) configured around the claim or have some structural reason that makes it viable (disability, sperg children, index-linked DB pension etc).

I'm seeing lots of 'how does it get fixed' posts here since the budget. There is NOTHING waiting in the wings capable of rescuing the situation. NOTHING. The best you'll get is a Blair redux attempt, which will quickly fail because material conditions in the UK will not support the 90s paradigm they will be attempting to recreate. There also will imo, be no reindustrialisation, the human clay just isn't there to do it anymore. We'll have to bring in someone else and that will be on their terms, not ours.

As the British state bleeds, it will only delve further into fantasy, because to recognise reality is to recognise that the game is up. The elite regard workers as livestock and hold them in utter contempt, honesty in this system is relentlessly punished; so if you uncynically play along, you can expect to get farmed. The direction of travel is absolutely clear and it is not going to change.

I see some very clever people here are about to pull an HPC mark 2 and waste time assuming a resumption of sanity. There is no sanity possible with the British state, it is fundamentally insane and has been for a long time. There is what should happen and there is what will happen. Don't allow yourselves to be outplayed by doleys, gypos, 2nd rate trots and guys straight off the banana boat. Either understand the system and play along with it to your benefit, or get out and start somewhere new.

It's honestly a shit situation and I wish it wasn't happening. 

Outstanding post and from my POV and understanding of the 'the situation' you clearly get it.  The human clay aspect you bring up is something i try and touch on but nowhere near as well.  It's not a numbers thing

[Onsamui]

2 hours ago, No One said:

He can say whatever he wants, but like I've said before, and to use a swamp analogy....a swamp cannot be drained from the inside. Listening to Curtis Yarvin yesterday, he made a similar point about Desantis, if you do this its all in or dont bother.

He gets my vote but they may remove him with a tragic accident.

[geordie_lurch]

Some great posts this morning all As someone that would have loved to settle in Spain or Portugal in a few years time I'm going to have to think of further afield for my plan b over the UK as the following illustrates the EU is just as bad if not worse than the UK going by how they handled Convid. Maybe I will follow my investment money to South America

EDIT FFS I hadn't even seen this shit from Lagarde

 

Edited March 22, 2023 by geordie_lurch

[Yadda yadda yadda]

5 minutes ago, marceau said:

The devil is in the detail. The average Joe can't just 'stop working' - he'll get fuck all from the state. Doley 'ultras' either have their entire lives (and the lives of everyone around them) configured around the claim or have some structural reason that makes it viable (disability, sperg children, index-linked DB pension etc).

I'm seeing lots of 'how does it get fixed' posts here since the budget. There is NOTHING waiting in the wings capable of rescuing the situation. NOTHING. The best you'll get is a Blair redux attempt, which will quickly fail because material conditions in the UK will not support the 90s paradigm they will be attempting to recreate. There also will imo, be no reindustrialisation, the human clay just isn't there to do it anymore. We'll have to bring in someone else and that will be on their terms, not ours.

As the British state bleeds, it will only delve further into fantasy, because to recognise reality is to recognise that the game is up. The elite regard workers as livestock and hold them in utter contempt, honesty in this system is relentlessly punished; so if you uncynically play along, you can expect to get farmed. The direction of travel is absolutely clear and it is not going to change.

I see some very clever people here are about to pull an HPC mark 2 and waste time assuming a resumption of sanity. There is no sanity possible with the British state, it is fundamentally insane and has been for a long time. There is what should happen and there is what will happen. Don't allow yourselves to be outplayed by doleys, gypos, 2nd rate trots and guys straight off the banana boat. Either understand the system and play along with it to your benefit, or get out and start somewhere new.

It's honestly a shit situation and I wish it wasn't happening. 

The middle ground is fucked and will remain so for a very long time. Either rip off the system from the bottom or be in the top 10% or so of earners. The cunts that have got us into this situation should be shot but that isn't going to happen.

Middle income is a trap. I see friends of mine on very good money who spend every penny. In and around the top 10% for income, probably. Big houses, fancy holidays and other expenses. When we meet up they notice how I look about 10 years younger than they do. They're stressed out whilst I'm tapping out a post on here during working hours. Another friend was on the same path but took redundancy, a few years off and then moved to a nice northern town. Exists on a hobby business and ripping off bennies. Owns a house outright. I know who is happier. Others from the same friendship group simply don't understand. The mindset is outside of their grasp.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

15 minutes ago, marceau said:

There will be MORE fraud under digital currency, not less.

That is interesting. Why will there be more fraud under CBDC? I could guess that everyone will be receiving something so everyone will be in a position to cheat. I'd like a etter understanding rather than that though.

[PatronizingGit]

40 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

From the FT comments on inflaiton...

 

 

 

Of course they understand. 

But you must understand they are globlalists. Maintaining (much less improving) living standards of the western working/middle class is anathema to them.  They have absolutely zero attachment/affinity for anyone outside of their elite cabal, and the notion that the masses in the UK, or Germany, or wherever, are automatically entitled to a higher standard of living than the masses in India, or Nigeria, or wherever else, is utterly alien to them. 

 

Until living standards for the global man harmonize, expect financial repression to continue. 

 

Its not like people havent been warned. The 'far right' be it in the form of the John Birchers, or even ethno nationalist groups have been merely stating what is basic logic for 50 plus years. But we moved beyond appreciation of logic long ago. 

[Calcutta]

3 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Some great posts this morning all As someone that would have loved to settle in Spain or Portugal in a few years time I'm going to have to think of further afield for my plan b over the UK as the following illustrates the EU is just as bad if not worse than the UK going by how they handled Convid. Maybe I will follow my investment money to South America

 

A lot of South America is pretty safe and they let foreigners buy property. Wouldn't need much in the way of income to live a decent life. 

The long term ransacking of sterling is something to consider (that I fail to consider enough) when investing I think. 

[HousePriceMania]

This chaps on form today...
 

 

[Virgil Caine]

40 minutes ago, Boon said:

Digitial currency you would think goes some way to solving fraud issues?

It is gonna be hard to move it elsewhere if the list of things allowed to buy with it is small and also it expires after a set amount of time.

It'll be marketed as equal but I don't think it will be. Somehow we have to get to a point where £1 made by working is worth more than £1 from benefits. 

Pure cash benefits are always going to be attractive to fraudsters as they are highly fungible. Replacing them with something less easily interchangeable would certainly be a starting point,

Edited March 22, 2023 by Virgil Caine

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

How does the fraud aspect of this get rolled back? Cutting bennies doesn't solve that. It would lessen the impact of it and put off some new fraudulent claims but those on board will only get off if they're thrown off. Either through enforcement or complete collapse removing entitlements for all.

Complete collapse would not be a nice place to be. Eventually charity to the truly deserving would be provided privately under Victorian conditions. The interim would be shit.

I think it'll end in either bennies getting rolled back substantially ie no PIP,basic UB and a bit of HB paid to LL or it'll end in a complete collpase of sterling.

My working assumption is the complete collpase of sterling.UK govt detbs ie welfare/NHS  bill,have been funded with foreign moeny,pension moeny and printed moeny buying gilts.Thats how we've been running deficits for 30 years.Reality is that foreigners have cut buying back for a number of reasons,printing has stopped, BUT pension funds are compelled to buy.

UK is headed to a very dark place imho.Last year when Ukraine kicked off,it accelerated the inflation that was already there.

Our politcal elite jsut don't have a clue what's coming.They're all schooled in PPE and Goldman in hosue training and are busy looking at the last 20 years of data rather than the last 200.

I'm genuinely taken aback at the speed with which we;re heading to the precipice

[Yadda yadda yadda]

3 minutes ago, PatronizingGit said:

Of course they understand. 

But you must understand they are globlalists. Maintaining (much less improving) living standards of the western working/middle class is anathema to them.  They have absolutely zero attachment/affinity for anyone outside of their elite cabal, and the notion that the masses in the UK, or Germany, or wherever, are automatically entitled to a higher standard of living than the masses in India, or Nigeria, or wherever else, is utterly alien to them. 

 

Until living standards for the global man harmonize, expect financial repression to continue. 

 

Its not like people havent been warned. The 'far right' be it in the form of the John Birchers, or even ethno nationalist groups have been merely stating what is basic logic for 50 plus years. But we moved beyond appreciation of logic long ago. 

This is so basic but people don't understand because they don't want to. From a moral perspective why should a worker in the UK have a higher standard of living than one in India? It is hard to argue against that just as it is hard to argue that wealth should be spread more equally across the UK. To assert otherwise is to be greedy. Greed is, of course, a fundamental part of human nature.

You can have a further argument that the governing class does not deserve a higher standard of living than the worker but that is never going to happen. Those with power will use it to their advantage. They are greedy too. Far moreso than average.

It follows that we the people of more developed countries are the enemies of the governing class as we want to maintain and improve our standards of living. They hate and fear us. We are a problem for them.

[HousePriceMania]

 

[geordie_lurch]

Wow not seen this one before of Lagarde spelling out TPTB plans for restricting what you can spend with their digital €

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think it'll end in either bennies getting rolled back substantially ie no PIP,basic UB and a bit of HB paid to LL or it'll end in a complete collpase of sterling.

My working assumption is the complete collpase of sterling.UK govt detbs ie welfare/NHS  bill,have been funded with foreign moeny,pension moeny and printed moeny buying gilts.Thats how we've been running deficits for 30 years.Reality is that foreigners have cut buying back for a number of reasons,printing has stopped, BUT pension funds are compelled to buy.

UK is headed to a very dark place imho.Last year when Ukraine kicked off,it accelerated the inflation that was already there.

Our politcal elite jsut don't have a clue what's coming.They're all schooled in PPE and Goldman in hosue training and are busy looking at the last 20 years of data rather than the last 200.

I'm genuinely taken aback at the speed with which we;re heading to the precipice

I see living standards for those working and those claiming benefits declining in tandem. Possibly steadily and then all at once with some sort of crisis.

The governing class are not working for our interests. They're working for globalist interests which are directly opposed.

@Calcutta suggests South America as an escape route. This might be a good idea. Family ties prevent me from considering it in depth. I think we're heading towards an Argentinian style future. Massive inequality. Only they have better weather, in much of the country, and a lot more land.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Should result in prison time.

Our prisons are 'full to bursting', where are you going to put them?...The role of prison should be as originally defined i.e. places for those who are a physical danger to society.

As for those who defraud?....confiscation off all their assets, including those that they have moved 'outside' of their normal sphere to avoid such a situation....'hit them where it hurts' i.e. their coveting of money, rather than the result being a burden on the honest, tax paying majority [majority used very loosely!].

[sancho panza]

25 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I see living standards for those working and those claiming benefits declining in tandem. Possibly steadily and then all at once with some sort of crisis.

The governing class are not working for our interests. They're working for globalist interests which are directly opposed.

@Calcutta suggests South America as an escape route. This might be a good idea. Family ties prevent me from considering it in depth. I think we're heading towards an Argentinian style future. Massive inequality. Only they have better weather, in much of the country, and a lot more land.

Agreed when the bennies stop buying what they did,there's going to be some angry people.Not jsut the people who've been living on bennies for years but also the ones who've never claimed who try to and fidn the coffers are empty.You won't want to be in the inner cities when that happens imho

I have a couple of plans mainly predicated on using income from ISA's/shares to live if needed(me/Mrs P don't own a hosue,all savings in oil,gold,EMs,comms,baccy and producing a healthy liveable non sterling income)

1) head north or west and away from Londinium/Brimingham/Midlands(but not Scotland),

2) head abroad but avoid EU.I could easily live in a gun toting state in the US.I think Latin America has a decent future as has chunks of Africa eg Botswana.

Unless something radiacal happens here and something liek Reform party take over we're really screwed but it's probably too late now to undo the damage of the post 2000 years given how embedded the politcal and social elite are.

It's pick your poison time imho.

 

Edited March 22, 2023 by sancho panza