Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[WICAO]

2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Some great posts this morning all As someone that would have loved to settle in Spain or Portugal in a few years time I'm going to have to think of further afield for my plan b over the UK as the following illustrates the EU is just as bad if not worse than the UK going by how they handled Convid. Maybe I will follow my investment money to South America

EDIT FFS I hadn't even seen this shit from Lagarde

How about Australia, weathers lovely at this time of year.

Oh we're also a massive quarry with a real estate agency attached, so similar to the UK except for the quarry bit, and there seem to be plenty of holes that can still be dug...  The biggest exporter of lithium as I understand it.  Stick that in your electric car and smoke it.  Largest reserves of iron ore as well and...

We're also about to get some 'second hand' US nuclear submarines in case you'd like to go on a fishing trip...

As long as we don't get invaded, flooded or burnt to death in bushfire life should be ok here for a while.

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

‘Civil service delays cost me £1m of my inheritance’

Interesting framing, falling house prices taken as a given and delays to probate costing money. Seems to be setting the scene for a nice panic sell-off IMO. Also raises the question of whether probate delays might be a govt tactic to hold back supply.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/civil-delays-cost-1m-inheritance-113209308.html

Conversely, a friend of mine's mums probate house sale went through justr in time for her to buy a new house in July 2022 (with her 2.0% 5 year fixed rate mortgage from 2018, carried over to the new house ) 

She now cant afford:

1) The upkeep of the house

2) The mortgage that is steaming her way in October this year

then....the finance company she works for is laying off staff......

Maybe a delay would have helped her.

[WICAO]

2 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The middle ground is fucked and will remain so for a very long time. Either rip off the system from the bottom or be in the top 10% or so of earners. The cunts that have got us into this situation should be shot but that isn't going to happen.

Middle income is a trap. I see friends of mine on very good money who spend every penny. In and around the top 10% for income, probably. Big houses, fancy holidays and other expenses. When we meet up they notice how I look about 10 years younger than they do. They're stressed out whilst I'm tapping out a post on here during working hours. Another friend was on the same path but took redundancy, a few years off and then moved to a nice northern town. Exists on a hobby business and ripping off bennies. Owns a house outright. I know who is happier. Others from the same friendship group simply don't understand. The mindset is outside of their grasp.

My bold.  Sort that out and FIRE, in whatever form works for them, would be just a few years away.  Sad.

[belfastchild]

Someone yesterday was talking to me about emigrating to Chile/Argentina/Uruguay to get away from the coming shitshow.

I told them what Ive told everyone who has asked before, unless you can say 'Put the guns down and lets talk about this' in the local lingo you would be even more fucked than home when the locals come for you.

[Eventually Right]

28 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Well, this is depressing. I had an opportunity to take big ballz profits on Santacruz on Monday and couldn't do it because those little bitches at HL were delaying my transfer to II by hook and crook, leaving my holdings in limbo. A plague on both their houses.

If it makes you feel any better, I took off 1/3rd of my position just before it did +40% in a day last week... 

[dnb24]

2 hours ago, afly said:

This may be a dumb idea but what if we post investments that have made sizable losses in the last few weeks? May give each other a chance to jump on board decent stocks at a discount?

Happy to go first...

POLY -30% 

Gerdau SA (GGB) -22%

Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd (WDO) -13%

Equitrans Midstream Corp (ETRN) -13%

BRLA -11%

 

Come on- I have great panther- 99% loss- HODL

[Pip321]

38 minutes ago, belfastchild said:

Someone yesterday was talking to me about emigrating to Chile/Argentina/Uruguay to get away from the coming shitshow.

I told them what Ive told everyone who has asked before, unless you can say 'Put the guns down and lets talk about this' in the local lingo you would be even more fucked than home when the locals come for you.

Any serous thoughts about moving to Russia. Happy its just a consideration for this thread but also its a genuine question because a friend of mine is seriously considering it i.e. applying for Visa this month.

They are a couple with a young child, he is a Civil Engineer (about 32 years old) and his wife is Russian (yep, nice). 

I said that whilst I believe the West is fairly corrupt I didn't think Russia was much better (for Civilians anyway). Only asking because its on thread for a general ponderance but also I am really interested on anyone who may have some informed thoughts. TBF his wife will know...but she is well travelled (lived in 2/3 EU countries before the UK) and has parents in Russia and may have different expectations to your average Joe. 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

What does top 10% equate to in salary, if theyre on 100k and stressing about money then somethings wrong. They're fooked in the next recession. 

Family friends. Bloke on £125k. She now needs work because they're 'skint'.

The reason? Paying off the debt from the life long gone but not paid for.

[JMD]

3 hours ago, marceau said:

The devil is in the detail. The average Joe can't just 'stop working' - he'll get fuck all from the state. Doley 'ultras' either have their entire lives (and the lives of everyone around them) configured around the claim or have some structural reason that makes it viable (disability, sperg children, index-linked DB pension etc).

I'm seeing lots of 'how does it get fixed' posts here since the budget. There is NOTHING waiting in the wings capable of rescuing the situation. NOTHING. The best you'll get is a Blair redux attempt, which will quickly fail because material conditions in the UK will not support the 90s paradigm they will be attempting to recreate. There also will imo, be no reindustrialisation, the human clay just isn't there to do it anymore. We'll have to bring in someone else and that will be on their terms, not ours.

As the British state bleeds, it will only delve further into fantasy, because to recognise reality is to recognise that the game is up. The elite regard workers as livestock and hold them in utter contempt, honesty in this system is relentlessly punished; so if you uncynically play along, you can expect to get farmed. The direction of travel is absolutely clear and it is not going to change.

I see some very clever people here are about to pull an HPC mark 2 and waste time assuming a resumption of sanity. There is no sanity possible with the British state, it is fundamentally insane and has been for a long time. There is what should happen and there is what will happen. Don't allow yourselves to be outplayed by doleys, gypos, 2nd rate trots and guys straight off the banana boat. Either understand the system and play along with it to your benefit, or get out and start somewhere new.

It's honestly a shit situation and I wish it wasn't happening. 

Great post. And I do agree. But what I'm personally struggling with is how to effectively pivot away from (not possible to do this entirely, unless maybe emigrating) our increasingly fraudulent UK political/economic control system.

So looking into our near future - and as you comment fraud will probably only increase if CBDCs are implemented - I think holding low value barter (town!?) assets will become crucial. Old UK silver coinage has been discussed as one such easily tradable asset to own. And I think silver would be the most fungible example. But there must be others? What other 'barter assets' would the thread consider buying? 

...On a related theme, I guess the 'ideal' asset would probably be an income producing asset - but one that can't be stolen or taxed to death by the state. I had previously considered buying a larger house with extra rooms/annex, in order to rent out those parts, but am now not so keen on that idea. I have an unspent inheritance, which is being eaten away by inflation, so should really make my decision asap. I could buy more divi paying stocks but I do prefer the idea of owning something physical, plus diversification is always a good thing. It's a difficult one because skill/interest need to be factored in, and of course when does a passive(?) income-asset become a time consuming business? ...But any and all ideas welcomed.

Edited March 22, 2023 by JMD

[Snake Plissken]

6 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Family friends. Bloke on £125k. She now needs work because they're 'skint'.

The reason? Paying off the debt from the life long gone but not paid for.

I hate it when people downplay debt like that martin lewis dick, especially for youngsters, paying off debt is a fucking sentence , a millstone round your neck

[HousePriceMania]

11 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Family friends. Bloke on £125k. She now needs work because they're 'skint'.

The reason? Paying off the debt from the life long gone but not paid for.

Wait till the job losses come...

[HousePriceMania]

4 minutes ago, JMD said:

Great post. I do agree. But what I'm personally struggling with is how to effectively pivot away from (not possible to do this entirely, unless maybe emigrating) the increasingly fraudulent UK political/economic control system.

So looking into our near future - and as you comment fraud will probably only increase if CBDCs are implemented - I think holding low value barter (town!!) assets will be key. Old UK silver coinage has been discussed as one such easily tradable asset to own. And I think silver would be the most fungible example. But there must be others? What other 'barter assets' is the thread considering buying? 

...On a related theme, I guess the 'ideal' asset would probably be an income producing asset - but one that can't be stolen or taxed to death by the state. I had previously considered buying a larger house with extra rooms/annex, in order to rent out those parts, but am now not so keen on that idea. I have an unspent inheritance, which is being eaten away by inflation, so should really make my decision asap. I could buy more divi paying stocks but I do prefer the idea of owning something physical, plus diversification is always a good thing. It's a difficult one because skill/interest need to be factored in, and of course when does a passive(?) income-asset become a time consuming business? ...But all and any ideas welcomed.

I'm more inclined to think, massive fraud/criminality is the way to go.

Seems to work for the tories.

[geordie_lurch]

1 hour ago, WICAO said:

How about Australia, weathers lovely at this time of year.

Oh we're also a massive quarry with a real estate agency attached, so similar to the UK except for the quarry bit, and there seem to be plenty of holes that can still be dug...  The biggest exporter of lithium as I understand it.  Stick that in your electric car and smoke it.  Largest reserves of iron ore as well and...

We're also about to get some 'second hand' US nuclear submarines in case you'd like to go on a fishing trip...

As long as we don't get invaded, flooded or burnt to death in bushfire life should be ok here for a while.

Nope Australia is not for me @WICAO having seen more of it than most Australians travelling around it in my 20s and that's before the Chinese got fully interested in all your exports and your latest Covid totalitarian shit Oh and don't get me started on the ex convicts Aussies and the lack of culture

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Oh and don't get me started on the ex convicts Aussies and the lack of culture

I was going to say, ACDC but, they are mostly Scottish originally.

[Bobthebuilder]

14 minutes ago, JMD said:

..On a related theme, I guess the 'ideal' asset would probably be an income producing asset - but one that can't be stolen or taxed to death by the state. I had previously considered buying a larger house with extra rooms/annex, in order to rent out those parts, but am now not so keen on that idea. I have an unspent inheritance, which is being eaten away by inflation, so should really make my decision asap. I could buy more divi paying stocks but I do prefer the idea of owning something physical, plus diversification is always a good thing. It's a difficult one because skill/interest need to be factored in, and of course when does a passive(?) income-asset become a time consuming business? ...But all and any ideas welcomed.

I am in a similar boat with an inheritance mostly in cash. I have been thinking of just going large on BATS if it ever drops to £26 again, take the divis and then sell the original stake if it gets another 30% uplift. Thought about a house in the country, but bills, council tax puts me off, local councils in the area I look are now talking about doubling council tax on 2nd homes.

Its a nice problem to have but, a problem none the less.

[Sugarlips]

39 minutes ago, JMD said:

Great post. And I do agree. But what I'm personally struggling with is how to effectively pivot away from (not possible to do this entirely, unless maybe emigrating) our increasingly fraudulent UK political/economic control system.

So looking into our near future - and as you comment fraud will probably only increase if CBDCs are implemented - I think holding low value barter (town!?) assets will become crucial. Old UK silver coinage has been discussed as one such easily tradable asset to own. And I think silver would be the most fungible example. But there must be others? What other 'barter assets' would the thread consider buying? 

...On a related theme, I guess the 'ideal' asset would probably be an income producing asset - but one that can't be stolen or taxed to death by the state. I had previously considered buying a larger house with extra rooms/annex, in order to rent out those parts, but am now not so keen on that idea. I have an unspent inheritance, which is being eaten away by inflation, so should really make my decision asap. I could buy more divi paying stocks but I do prefer the idea of owning something physical, plus diversification is always a good thing. It's a difficult one because skill/interest need to be factored in, and of course when does a passive(?) income-asset become a time consuming business? ...But any and all ideas welcomed.

I'd suggest spending time considering who you are likely to want to barter with and what they might want from you.

If you just want food from the farmer then silver coins makes sense whereas if you are chasing skirt you might want to learn how to do Botox or breast implants...

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

Nah, I m in this boat with 4 siblings now. Ma has passed away early March, there is a will, been told no chance of probate green light before October.

Unreal,i read it was just where there was no will,shocking,time of grief yet the government add even more stress.I bet they make sure they stop the pensions though straight away.In years gone by this would of been huge news,now all part of the collapse in everything.

[marceau]

21 minutes ago, JMD said:

Great post. And I do agree. But what I'm personally struggling with is how to effectively pivot away from (not possible to do this entirely, unless maybe emigrating) our increasingly fraudulent UK political/economic control system.

So looking into our near future - and as you comment fraud will probably only increase if CBDCs are implemented - I think holding low value barter (town!?) assets will become crucial. Old UK silver coinage has been discussed as one such easily tradable asset to own. And I think silver would be the most fungible example. But there must be others? What other 'barter assets' would the thread consider buying? 

...On a related theme, I guess the 'ideal' asset would probably be an income producing asset - but one that can't be stolen or taxed to death by the state. I had previously considered buying a larger house with extra rooms/annex, in order to rent out those parts, but am now not so keen on that idea. I have an unspent inheritance, which is being eaten away by inflation, so should really make my decision asap. I could buy more divi paying stocks but I do prefer the idea of owning something physical, plus diversification is always a good thing. It's a difficult one because skill/interest need to be factored in, and of course when does a passive(?) income-asset become a time consuming business? ...But any and all ideas welcomed.

All the libertarian/goldbug shit is a trap imo. The mindset of owning something to avoid problems misses a large part of the picture. There are already huge numbers of countries in the state that we are descending into. How does a guy stay ahead in Turkey, Brazil, Egypt; or worse in Syria, Libya, Iraq etc? They aren't getting by on silver coin, that's for sure. Power and aligning with power is far more important, particularly when there are ethnic/cultural/religious faultlines in play. People need to be thinking al-Sadr and al-Assad here, not John Galt.

And of course when I say power it has to be power you can align with. Aside from the aformentioned ethnic/religious angles (which obviously render some doors permanently closed), there's no way you could ever ally with the dross that makes up our 'elite'. They're incompetent, untrustworthy and suicidally foolish. They think that they can write a law, make a statement and thereby make reality. Their current aspiration seems to be to legislate themselves into aristocracy; it has no chance of working, the foundations aren't there for it at all. It'll most likely be the guys who 'end' them (euphemism only so I don't end up on a list) who become the aristos of the future.

Bowden's 'cultured thug' isn't exactly a new concept, but if you look at those decayed nations that represent our future, you can see he has a point. In these places violence (and the threat of it) is a much more explicit part of power. I'd say the 'pragmatic' thug tallies best with reality. There's no shortage of brutes in the world, but someone who can temper the violence with a purpose, a thug you can trust to keep a deal; that's the sort to line up behind.

Grim future, isn't it? 

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Starsend said:

Preferred currencies to be in for the rest of the decade?

Are you saying you wouldn't hold BAT or similar companies like BP who earn the bulk of their money outside sterling?

Id always hold BAT they will swap baccy for sea shells if it becomes legal tender.BAT earn most of their earnings around the world.

[marceau]

4 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

That is interesting. Why will there be more fraud under CBDC? I could guess that everyone will be receiving something so everyone will be in a position to cheat. I'd like a etter understanding rather than that though.

Aside from the technological issues, which are considerable, it'll be the old case of good money driving out bad. Money with restrictions will always be considered worse than money without. Black/grey markets will spring up to enable the difference.

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

Any serous thoughts about moving to Russia. Happy its just a consideration for this thread but also its a genuine question because a friend of mine is seriously considering it i.e. applying for Visa this month.

They are a couple with a young child, he is a Civil Engineer (about 32 years old) and his wife is Russian (yep, nice). 

I said that whilst I believe the West is fairly corrupt I didn't think Russia was much better (for Civilians anyway). Only asking because its on thread for a general ponderance but also I am really interested on anyone who may have some informed thoughts. TBF his wife will know...but she is well travelled (lived in 2/3 EU countries before the UK) and has parents in Russia and may have different expectations to your average Joe. 

Nyet, tovarich!

Your friend should be ok as long as he is still married. For me anyway its always about having that local connection when the mob arrives, probably fronted by the policia local!

I bought a place in Chile. It was to help a mate out, it was his family land and with two young kids he was going to be financially in the shit. I bought a section of the land enclosed by his, I never intended to live there and it was always in my will to give to his kids anyway (Im godfather to them). If the locals ever came for it, they would have to get through him and his missus, dogs, etc first (all locals). In the times I did think about moving there it would have been a call to one of the still single women I know in BA to see if they wanted to take part in a double act! Anyway I digress... I stuck a log cabin on it, solar etc but it was really a guest house for his land. Anyway you get the picture, mine but not mine etc.
I never had any illusion that it would be 'mine' if things got tough locally, some problem with police registration, some problem with the local magistrate or being an hours minibus bus ride from the nearest town, a pile of smoking ashes if anyone bothered their arse to turn up. I visited the local dentist and doctor when I was there and both told me not to trust the local police (then again Ive a mate here who is a retired sergeant and he told me the same about the local cops here).
Even my mate had to pack the lot up during covid. His dad lives part time in New York so was stuck there and nobody to look after the place in Santiago so the young family were pretty much under house arrest there for 2 years, they havent been back to the land since early 2020 so fuck knows what state its in, the entire forest could be logged for all we know and someone airbnb'ing the two cabins to surfers or 'sold' them on to the numpties on youtube giving off about their new shtf location (my guns are still in santiago!).

Its all relative, a couple of cousins of mine have married EE girls and they plan to fuck off there, lots of land, lots of forest, pretty much a basic sustainable lifestyle but as long as they stay married (which they will) there will be no problem for them, again both 'handy' in the trades departments so useful for locals.

Here at least I know the local hoods and they know me.

Edited March 22, 2023 by belfastchild
spelling

[DurhamBorn]

57 minutes ago, JMD said:

Great post. And I do agree. But what I'm personally struggling with is how to effectively pivot away from (not possible to do this entirely, unless maybe emigrating) our increasingly fraudulent UK political/economic control system.

So looking into our near future - and as you comment fraud will probably only increase if CBDCs are implemented - I think holding low value barter (town!?) assets will become crucial. Old UK silver coinage has been discussed as one such easily tradable asset to own. And I think silver would be the most fungible example. But there must be others? What other 'barter assets' would the thread consider buying? 

...On a related theme, I guess the 'ideal' asset would probably be an income producing asset - but one that can't be stolen or taxed to death by the state. I had previously considered buying a larger house with extra rooms/annex, in order to rent out those parts, but am now not so keen on that idea. I have an unspent inheritance, which is being eaten away by inflation, so should really make my decision asap. I could buy more divi paying stocks but I do prefer the idea of owning something physical, plus diversification is always a good thing. It's a difficult one because skill/interest need to be factored in, and of course when does a passive(?) income-asset become a time consuming business? ...But any and all ideas welcomed.

A fishing pond.You can charge £10 a day,just stick an honesty box on the entrance and call there every night to collect.My mate discovered a massive Roman hoard of coins,sold them on the black market to some Yanks and did that 30 years ago.His kids have it now and collect a few hundred a week from it for very little work.Repair the odd platform.He bought a field with a farm pond in and then expanded it hugely.It was already on the maps so didnt get any grief from the council.I guess you would just need public liability insurance.

Edited March 22, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[Sugarlips]

4 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

Some great posts this morning all As someone that would have loved to settle in Spain or Portugal in a few years time I'm going to have to think of further afield for my plan b over the UK as the following illustrates the EU is just as bad if not worse than the UK going by how they handled Convid. Maybe I will follow my investment money to South America

EDIT FFS I hadn't even seen this shit from Lagarde

 

A number of the intelligent economic/political commentators on YT have moved already.

Doug Casey raves about Uruguay, Nomad Capitalist bounces between KL, Georgia and Bogota (not sure about the 3rd opinion myself!). George Cammon is in a famous resort place in South America - name escapes me.

I spent about 6 months in KL some years back and was surprised in a good way, some potential future risk with their religious divisions but mostly safe and welcoming.

[RWJ]

1 minute ago, Sugarlips said:

George Cammon is in a famous resort place in South America - name escapes me

If I remember right Medellin, Columbia.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, RWJ said:

If I remember right Medellin, Columbia.

Not to be sniffed at.