Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[HousePriceMania]

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I have a couple of plans mainly predicated on using income from ISA's/shares to live if needed(me/Mrs P don't own a hosue,all savings in oil,gold,comms,baccy and producing a healthy liveable non sterling income)

1) head north or west and away from Londinium/Brimingham/Midlands(but not Scotland),

2) head abroad but avoid EU.I could easily live in a gun toting state in the US.I think Latin America has a decent future as has chunks of Africa eg Botswana.

Unless something radiacal happens here and something liek Reform party take over we're really screwed but it's probably too late now to undo the damage of the post 2000 years given how embedded the politcal and social elite are.

It's pick your poison time imho.

2) go abroad

Couldn't agree more.

In fact I've been saying it for some time.

The all ends very badly for all of us.

[Froggy2000]

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

hen they go in and the shelves are empty, because farmers wont produce food at a loss, it will probably be someone else's fault too.....

They will steal the land from the farmers like they did in the Netherlands.

[HousePriceMania]

3 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

They will steal the land from the farmers like they did in the Netherlands.

I get the feeling the bankers are going to steal everything.

People need to wake up asap.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

8 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Our prisons are 'full to bursting', where are you going to put them?...The role of prison should be as originally defined i.e. places for those who are a physical danger to society.

As for those who defraud?....confiscation off all their assets, including those that they have moved 'outside' of their normal sphere to avoid such a situation....'hit them where it hurts' i.e. their coveting of money, rather than the result being a burden on the honest, tax paying majority [majority used very loosely!].

I wasn't seriously suggesting that we should lock up all benefits fraudsters. Far too many. There should have always been a serious deterrent in place before the problem grew. Now it is like a cancer that has spread to all organs the the patient is doomed.

Most benefits fraudsters have very little in the way of assets as benefits are reduced if you have more than £6k in savings. The only financial penalty available is a fine paid through a reduction in ongoing benefits payments. These fines and certainly the payment terms could be made tougher.

One rule change that should be made is charges against property used for the fraudulent claiming of housing benefits. The case DB mentioned could see the Government take a charge against the house to the value of the housing benefit fraud plus costs.

I disagree that prison is purely for people who pose a physical threat to society. Theft including fraud has, as far as I'm aware, always carried custodial sentences. Prison is punishment as well as segregation from society. Clearly minor fraud should not lead to prison but substantial fraud should. What constitutes substantial is up for debate.

[afly]

This may be a dumb idea but what if we post investments that have made sizable losses in the last few weeks? May give each other a chance to jump on board decent stocks at a discount?

Happy to go first...

POLY -30% 

Gerdau SA (GGB) -22%

Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd (WDO) -13%

Equitrans Midstream Corp (ETRN) -13%

BRLA -11%

 

[HousePriceMania]

6 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I wasn't seriously suggesting that we should lock up all benefits fraudsters.

Maybe we could concentrate them in camps and force them to work until they've paid back their debt ?

I vaguely remember another scheme like this...

Just now, afly said:

This may be a dumb idea but what if we post investments that have made sizable losses in the last few weeks? May give each other a chance to jump on board decent stocks at a discount?

Happy to go first...

POLY -30% 

Gerdau SA (GGB) -22%

Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd (WDO) -13%

Equitrans Midstream Corp (ETRN) -13%

BRLA -11%

 

The first rule of shite club is we dont talk about how shite our investments are doing.

[sancho panza]

1 minute ago, afly said:

This may be a dumb idea but what if we post investments that have made sizable losses in the last few weeks? May give each other a chance to jump on board decent stocks at a discount?

Happy to go first...

POLY -30% 

Gerdau SA (GGB) -22%

Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd (WDO) -13%

Equitrans Midstream Corp (ETRN) -13%

BRLA -11%

 

raft of Newmont$50-$60/Barrick$18/$19/Fresnillo £8/£9 Mar calls-100%

[King Penda]

48 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

This chaps on form today...
 

 

I’ve got an errection and am very excited about tommorow some banter may be the order of the day on Facebook 

[DurhamBorn]

40 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think it'll end in either bennies getting rolled back substantially ie no PIP,basic UB and a bit of HB paid to LL or it'll end in a complete collpase of sterling.

My working assumption is the complete collpase of sterling.UK govt detbs ie welfare/NHS  bill,have been funded with foreign moeny,pension moeny and printed moeny buying gilts.Thats how we've been running deficits for 30 years.Reality is that foreigners have cut buying back for a number of reasons,printing has stopped, BUT pension funds are compelled to buy.

UK is headed to a very dark place imho.Last year when Ukraine kicked off,it accelerated the inflation that was already there.

Our politcal elite jsut don't have a clue what's coming.They're all schooled in PPE and Goldman in hosue training and are busy looking at the last 20 years of data rather than the last 200.

I'm genuinely taken aback at the speed with which we;re heading to the precipice

Thats what has happened,and why we got dis-inflation while doing it thinking how fantastic our economy was.Once those foreign workers saved labour isnt going into you worthless currency then all of the cosumption you were taking from them has to be produced by yourself.Now of course the answer is those 50% consuming need to produce and after a few hard years things would slowly improve,but instead government is simply inflation protecting them because the civil service etc and all the other lefty institutions dont suffer from inflation yet,they are insulated.Its a bit like those watering holes in Africa,the smaller they get the more turn up to drink from them.They dont cut how much they drink,they just fight over whats left.

The minimum for us to do for me is make sure you are outside of sterling as much as you can,and i include UK companies who sell mostly outside like BAT.The currency will take the pain,shared with housing as rates stay high.

The worst part of where this is heading is the ones who are innocent,who tried will suffer the same.

 

[Axeman123]

‘Civil service delays cost me £1m of my inheritance’

Quote

Families face having huge sums wiped off inheritances, as house sales fall through because of civil service delays.

After someone dies, a legal document called a grant of probate is required so families can settle the deceased’s estate and pay beneficiaries their inheritance.

Without it, families can be left in financial limbo, unable to access large sums held in the deceased’s bank accounts or even sell their loved one’s home.

But it is now taking so long for civil servants at probate registries to issue grants that house sales are collapsing, The Telegraph can disclose – just as the property market is starting to cool...

Interesting framing, falling house prices taken as a given and delays to probate costing money. Seems to be setting the scene for a nice panic sell-off IMO. Also raises the question of whether probate delays might be a govt tactic to hold back supply.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/civil-delays-cost-1m-inheritance-113209308.html

[King Penda]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats what has happened,and why we got dis-inflation while doing it thinking how fantastic our economy was.Once those foreign workers saved labour isnt going into you worthless currency then all of the cosumption you were taking from them has to be produced by yourself.Now of course the answer is those 50% consuming need to produce and after a few hard years things would slowly improve,but instead government is simply inflation protecting them because the civil service etc and all the other lefty institutions dont suffer from inflation yet,they are insulated.Its a bit like those watering holes in Africa,the smaller they get the more turn up to drink from them.They dont cut how much they drink,they just fight over whats left.

The minimum for us to do for me is make sure you are outside of sterling as much as you can,and i include UK companies who sell mostly outside like BAT.The currency will take the pain,shared with housing as rates stay high.

The worst part of where this is heading is the ones who are innocent,who tried will suffer the same.

 

It’s dog eat dog it was not slaves rebelling that brought down the romans.I think there were 3 servintile wars the famous one is Spartacus.I don’t think for a second that all romans battered and whipped there slaves daily it is to risky a strategy ie sooner or later your going to get killed by one losing their temper.it’s the same now with us they will keep the proles ticking over the merchant class (middle class) are going to see constant erosion of living standards that’s most of you guys sadly 

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The middle ground is fucked and will remain so for a very long time. Either rip off the system from the bottom or be in the top 10% or so of earners. The cunts that have got us into this situation should be shot but that isn't going to happen.

Middle income is a trap. I see friends of mine on very good money who spend every penny. In and around the top 10% for income, probably. Big houses, fancy holidays and other expenses. When we meet up they notice how I look about 10 years younger than they do. They're stressed out whilst I'm tapping out a post on here during working hours. Another friend was on the same path but took redundancy, a few years off and then moved to a nice northern town. Exists on a hobby business and ripping off bennies. Owns a house outright. I know who is happier. Others from the same friendship group simply don't understand. The mindset is outside of their grasp.

What does top 10% equate to in salary, if theyre on 100k and stressing about money then somethings wrong. They're fooked in the next recession. 

[Noallegiance]

Among the relentless doom a sliver of sense from this guy stating that the world needs capital to flow to production as '....that's the only thing that will bring down inflation'.

His role as World Bank President surely has some weight!

Edited March 22, 2023 by Noallegiance

[DurhamBorn]

15 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

‘Civil service delays cost me £1m of my inheritance’

Interesting framing, falling house prices taken as a given and delays to probate costing money. Seems to be setting the scene for a nice panic sell-off IMO. Also raises the question of whether probate delays might be a govt tactic to hold back supply.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/civil-delays-cost-1m-inheritance-113209308.html

The delays are only  where there is no will,so if anyone on here doesnt have one id consider getting one.The ones with wills are going through pretty quick ,its because on probate they need to do more checks and their experienced staff all retired on their nice pensions.My neighbour is having a nightmare,her father died and its turned out her sister has being getting massive subs for years and his saving have gone,just a house and its all stalled for bickering.

[Starsend]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats what has happened,and why we got dis-inflation while doing it thinking how fantastic our economy was.Once those foreign workers saved labour isnt going into you worthless currency then all of the cosumption you were taking from them has to be produced by yourself.Now of course the answer is those 50% consuming need to produce and after a few hard years things would slowly improve,but instead government is simply inflation protecting them because the civil service etc and all the other lefty institutions dont suffer from inflation yet,they are insulated.Its a bit like those watering holes in Africa,the smaller they get the more turn up to drink from them.They dont cut how much they drink,they just fight over whats left.

The minimum for us to do for me is make sure you are outside of sterling as much as you can,and i include UK companies who sell mostly outside like BAT.The currency will take the pain,shared with housing as rates stay high.

The worst part of where this is heading is the ones who are innocent,who tried will suffer the same.

 

Preferred currencies to be in for the rest of the decade?

Are you saying you wouldn't hold BAT or similar companies like BP who earn the bulk of their money outside sterling?

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

its turned out her sister has being getting massive subs for years and his saving have gone

That is sadly very common with inheritences, often the one getting subs will have done their best to alienate the older person from the rest of the family making themselves the only social outlet for them.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I see living standards for those working and those claiming benefits declining in tandem. Possibly steadily and then all at once with some sort of crisis.

The governing class are not working for our interests. They're working for globalist interests which are directly opposed.

@Calcutta suggests South America as an escape route. This might be a good idea. Family ties prevent me from considering it in depth. I think we're heading towards an Argentinian style future. Massive inequality. Only they have better weather, in much of the country, and a lot more land.

I used to get a massage off a Romanian women,she left and moved to Brazil ,said it was crap here in the UK,working all hours to pay rent (she worked in a food factory in Leeming) .

[Lightly Toasted]

4 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Because the shelves are still full, so obviously its price gouging and not a reduction in food supply or farmers costs going through the roof.  When they go in and the shelves are empty, because farmers wont produce food at a loss, it will probably be someone else's fault too.....

Tesco profits well up in 2022. Non-fuel revenue per sq ft hasn't moved much though, margins higher or the turnaround at the bank? Being a shareholder I don't mind if they're squeezing more profit from their revenue 

	2018(a)	2019	2020(b)	2021 (restated(c))	2022
Financial statistics (£m)
SalesΔ
UK & ROI	38,656	44,883	45,752	48,848	49,984
Central Europe	6,343	6,030	3,968	3,862	3,862
Asia	4,947	4,873	–	–	–
Tesco Bank	1,047	1,097	1,068	735	922
Group sales(f)	50,993	56,883	50,788	53,445	54,768
Revenue
UK & ROI	44,914	51,643	52,898	53,170	56,404
Central Europe	6,585	6,298	4,125	3,982	4,018
Asia	4,947	4,873	–	–	–
Tesco Bank	1,047	1,097	1,068	735	922
Group revenue	57,493	63,911	58,091	57,887	61,344
Adjusted operating profit/(loss)(d)(e)
UK & ROI	1,059	1,868	2,202	1,839	2,481
Central Europe	119	221	176	124	168
Asia	299	319	–	–	–
Tesco Bank	169	199	193	(175)	176
Group adjusted operating profit/(loss)(d)(e)	1,646	2,607	2,571	1,788	2,825
Adjusted operating profit/ margin (loss)(e)	2.9%	4.1%	4.4%	3.1%	4.6%
Operating profit/(loss)
UK & ROI	1,205	1,949	1,923	1,890	2,191
Central Europe	212	279	209	127	193
Asia	277	252	–	–	–
Tesco Bank	145	169	74	(470)	176
Group operating profit/(loss)	1,839	2,649	2,206	1,547	2,560
Share of post-tax profits/(losses) of joint ventures and associates	(6)	32	(8)	26	15
Net finance costs	(533)	(1,064)	(1,170)	(937)	(542)
Profit/(loss) before tax	1,300	1,617	1,028	636	2,033
Taxation	(306)	(347)	(290)	(104)	(510)
Profit/(loss) for the year from continuing operations	994	1,270	738	532	1,523
Discontinued operations	216	–	235	5,426	(40)
Profit/(loss) for the year	1,210	1,270	973	5,958	1,483
Attributable to:
Owners of the parent	1,208	1,272	971	5,954	1,481
Non-controlling interests	2	(2)	2	4	2
Adjusted profit before tax(d)(e)	1,284	1,806	1,869	1,134	2,197
Other financial statistics
Diluted earnings/(losses) per share – continuing operations	12.11p	13.04p	7.54p	5.58p	19.64p
Adjusted diluted earnings per share (adjusted for share consolidation) ∆(d)(g)	11.90p	14.01p	18.98p	11.58p	21.86p
Dividend per share(f)	3.00p	5.77p	9.15p	9.15p	10.90p
Cash generated from retail operating activities(£m)∆	2,773	3,637	3,580	321	3,614
Retail free cash flow (£m)∆	1,388	889	1,493	1,340	2,277
Return on capital employed (ROCE)(d)	11.0%	7.9%	6.1%	5.4%	7.8%
Total shareholder return(d)	8.70%	10.20%	5.2%	2.60%	32.40%
Net debt (£m)∆ (d)	2,625	13,204	12,298	11,955	10,516
Discounted operating lease commitments – continuing operations	6,931	–	–	–	–
Pension deficit, net of deferred tax – Group (£m)	2,728	2,338	2,573	1,004	242
Total indebtedness (£m)(d)	12,284	15,542	14,871	12,959	10,758
Enterprise value (£m)(d)	19,452	35,024	34,676	29,336	32,403
Group retail statistics
Number of stores(h)	7,033	6,993	4,613	4,673	4,752
Total sales area (’000 sq. ft.)(h)	92,983	91,298	63,971	63,980	64,034
Average employees	448,988	464,505	354,451	367,321	354,744
Average full-time equivalent employees (FTE)	327,916	321,490	243,031	242,911	231,223
UK & ROI retail statistics
Number of stores(h)	3,952	3,961	3,968	4,008	4,074
Total sales area (’000 sq. ft.)(h)	42,032	50,521	50,401	50,443	50,588
Average full-time equivalent employees (FTE)	210,312	223,542	210,771	214,470	204,974
Revenue (exc. fuel) (per FTE – £)	183,804	200,781	217,070	227,761	243,855
Weekly revenue (exc. fuel) (per sq. ft. – £)	17.36	18.65	17.11	18.63	19.03

[King Penda]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The delays are only  where there is no will,so if anyone on here doesnt have one id consider getting one.The ones with wills are going through pretty quick ,its because on probate they need to do more checks and their experienced staff all retired on their nice pensions.My neighbour is having a nightmare,her father died and its turned out her sister has being getting massive subs for years and his saving have gone,just a house and its all stalled for bickering.

Doubt she can do anything about gifts .spygirl will look after his feckless sister

[Yadda yadda yadda]

16 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

What does top 10% equate to in salary, if theyre on 100k and stressing about money then somethings wrong. They're fooked in the next recession. 

That ballpark. The stress is more from the job than money. Long hours, dealing with Americans, that sort of thing. The money all gets spent and I don't suppose they will be putting a lot of money aside until children have grown up.

The big costs are a massive house extension (this was also very stressful), private school for one kid and the prospect for another plus other things like posh holidays. If he lost his job it would all fall apart quickly.

This is the most extreme example. Others put some money aside. The work to earn very good money is stressful but they're better with it.

[Bricormortis]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The delays are only  where there is no will,so if anyone on here doesnt have one id consider getting one.The ones with wills are going through pretty quick ,its because on probate they need to do more checks and their experienced staff all retired on their nice pensions.My neighbour is having a nightmare,her father died and its turned out her sister has being getting massive subs for years and his saving have gone,just a house and its all stalled for bickering.

Nah, I m in this boat with 4 siblings now. Ma has passed away early March, there is a will, been told no chance of probate green light before October.

Edited March 22, 2023 by Bricormortis

[Bobthebuilder]

25 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Nah, I m in this boat with 4 siblings now. Ma has passed away early March, there is a will, been told no chance of probate green light before October.

When my old man passed away it was just me and my sister, will in place he didn't leave a stone unturned. Even then it took over a year before it was all done, this was pre covid. 

[sleepwello'nights]

44 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I used to get a massage off a Romanian women,she left and moved to Brazil ,said it was crap here in the UK,working all hours to pay rent (she worked in a food factory in Leeming) .

Is that a “happy ending “ 

[kibuc]

Well, this is depressing. I had an opportunity to take big ballz profits on Santacruz on Monday and couldn't do it because those little bitches at HL were delaying my transfer to II by hook and crook, leaving my holdings in limbo. A plague on both their houses.

Edited March 22, 2023 by kibuc

[TNS]

8 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Is that a “happy ending “ 

I worked with a IT contractor once who used escorts who was hilarious, he had them hoover his house in their gear before shagging them. Genius really!