Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 5)

[Long time lurking]

5 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

I think the issue is that that point has come and gone.

We're at the stage that they can't be paid at the promised levels, but there's a political consensus that they must be paid. The only way out of this that I can see is that they're paid in nominal terms, but with a devalued currency after some sort of currency crisis. Whether that be a manufactured crisis, or real deal.

I don`t think it`s that clear cut as the political consequences will be coming from the 10`s of millions of general public not the few million PS workers 

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Good vid.

I think he is a bit blasé about how the average man copes with this. Unsecured lending in £ will whither when digital £ (d£) comes in but what about mortgages? If all your income and cash is in d£ how do you pay that mortgage denominated in £? Can the bank try to repossess your home or force you to switch the mortgage to d£? I don't see how that works. Although I hear the "you will own nothing and be happy" WEF mantra in my head. He suggests that government and businesses will just ignore their old debts. Could that really be the case for ordinary people too? Would there be guaranteed convertibility at an increasingly favourable exchange rate from d£ to £ to pay off the old £ debt?

Another point he makes is that pensions will be bailed out. I wouldn't be so sure about bonds in pensions over a certain limit. It would also be an excellent opportunity to reduce public sector pensions.

Which company is he invested in for exposure to Blockchain tech?

I think the theory is that all fiat denominated assets and liabilities in the old-fiat are debased through inflation and the punitive conversion rates into the new-fiat. I will find and post the 2nd part where he goes into more detail.

[Ash4781b]

9 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

I think the issue is that that point has come and gone.

We're at the stage that they can't be paid at the promised levels, but there's a political consensus that they must be paid. The only way out of this that I can see is that they're paid in nominal terms, but with a devalued currency after some sort of currency crisis. Whether that be a manufactured crisis, or real deal.

My understanding is that the civil service schemes are paid out from general taxation as there are no assets.the local government pension schemes have assets. 

 

12 minutes ago, marceau said:

For the foreseeable future it can only be clawed back through tax. This is going to keep downward pressure on taxbands and rates, much to the detriment of everyone.

Imo no government is going to touch PS pensions in payment, which is where the bulk of the problems lie. Vested interest, the need for primary legislation & clear legal precedents make reform as close to impossible as it gets. Pensions not in payment have been, and will continue to be, hammered into the ground.

 

[marceau]

13 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

I don`t think it`s that clear cut as the political consequences will be coming from the 10`s of millions of general public not the few million PS workers 

The general public don't matter at all. Never have, never will.

[Long time lurking]

3 minutes ago, marceau said:

The general public don't matter at all. Never have, never will.

When it comes to getting elected it do  ,no party have been elected by the public sector alone 

The Romans called it bread and circuses ,they knew what would happen when the bread and circuses stopped ,the rest is history ,if the shit hit`s the fan it will happen here just like it did back then 

 

[SpectrumFX]

24 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

I don`t think it`s that clear cut as the political consequences will be coming from the 10`s of millions of general public not the few million PS workers 

Who vote for one of two parties, both of whom have shown that they're going to carry on running certain policies the same no matter whose turn it is to be in charge.

Edited March 26, 2023 by SpectrumFX

[Yadda yadda yadda]

34 minutes ago, marceau said:

For the foreseeable future it can only be clawed back through tax. This is going to keep downward pressure on taxbands and rates, much to the detriment of everyone.

Imo no government is going to touch PS pensions in payment, which is where the bulk of the problems lie. Vested interest, the need for primary legislation & clear legal precedents make reform as close to impossible as it gets. Pensions not in payment have been, and will continue to be, hammered into the ground.

Jab pensioners to death...

[SpectrumFX]

17 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

My understanding is that the civil service schemes are paid out from general taxation as there are no assets.the local government pension schemes have assets. 

 

 

That's right.

There's also the teachers pension scheme, the NHS scheme, and then all of the other odds and sods smaller public schemes like the police. Most of which are also essentially set up to be paid from general taxation.

[Lightscribe]

25 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

I think the issue is that that point has come and gone.

We're at the stage that they can't be paid at the promised levels, but there's a political consensus that they must be paid. The only way out of this that I can see is that they're paid in nominal terms, but with a devalued currency after some sort of currency crisis. Whether that be a manufactured crisis, or real deal.

Link to a new index (CPI to PPE - House of Lords container deals full of dodgey Covid gear or CA - carbon allowance index) doesn’t matter as long as it’s being inflated away.

Raise the age so that those near retirement don’t get it.

Prolonged high inflation and devaluation of currency (i.e CBDCs)

A housing market Armageddon may sort some of that out, but forced allocations of green bonds and carbon offset schemes will take care of some more.

The problem is existing pensioners terms and conditions. DB schemes are the thorn in the side that will need dealing with first and foremost.

Basically tax and inflate away. 

[M S E Refugee]

2 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

That's right.

There's also the teachers pension scheme, the NHS scheme, and then all of the other odds and sods smaller public schemes like the police. Most of which are also essentially set up to be paid from general taxation.

Our Royal Mail Final Salary Pension was also absorbed by the Government so we could be privatised.

George Osborne used our Pension assets to pay down the National Debt.

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

Who vote for one of two parties, both of whom have shown that they're going to carry on running certain policies the same no matter whose turn it is to be in charge.

Agree, sitting around waiting for some politician to save us, is a complete waste of our time. We need to find ways to protect ourselves, my best guess would be, oil, baccy, comms, EMs, PMs and I still like the idea of asset managers.

I liked what @sancho panza said the other day when he said tobacco is a currency, I have been sitting here today looking at all the stuff I have collected during my life time, real items that themselves have some value, whether that be £, $, digital currency or beans, at least I can touch it.

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, marceau said:

The only way to truly do it is to get direct access to govt funding or to get into one of the govt's favoured classes. Getting out of sterling is going to come a distant second compared to having early dibs on govt cash. Being at the start of the pipeline works just as well for public as well as private under an inflationary regime.

Someone posted up thread about getting into the council contract game, that's an example of the former at the local level. Anyone who has the stones or has the contacts could do so at the national level and would come out miles ahead. As for favored classes, most on here would only be able to go down the disability route. White males don't really feature anywhere else, unless they fancy becoming a tranny.

Fuck it, I'll give it a go, its just dressing up in lasses' clothes, if i get some free money off the back of it then result.

[marceau]

11 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

When it comes to getting elected it do  ,no party have been elected by the public sector alone 

The Romans called it bread and circuses ,they knew what would happen when the bread and circuses stopped ,the rest is history ,if the shit hit`s the fan it will happen here just like it did back then 

 

Elections make no difference whatsoever.

Rome was never bothered by the plebs in the slightest at any stage, regardless of bread or circuses. Even slaves caused them more trouble than the plebs.

The general public will do whatever the govt tells them, be that clap like seals for the NHS, or freeze their granny to death for Ukraine. Individuals may differ, but the herd will always be the herd.

[Long time lurking]

7 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

Who vote for one of two parties, both of whom have shown that they're going to carry on running certain policies the same no matter whose turn it is to be in charge.

Yep i agree if it`s just a changing of the guard nothing much will change 

What i`m talking about is a shit hitting the fan moment ,in that scenario the public sector will be ripe for levelling down and it would be simple to do it if the will is there, there`s a very good reason very few leave the public sector for the private sector 

I`m pretty sure 90% plus of the general public don`t have a clue how well remunerated a lot of the public sector are ,that's even before pensions are taken into account ,a few months of disclosure by the MSM and the pitch forks would be out 

[Shamone]

1 minute ago, Long time lurking said:

Yep i agree if it`s just a changing of the guard nothing much will change 

What i`m talking about is a shit hitting the fan moment ,in that scenario the public sector will be ripe for levelling down and it would be simple to do it if the will is there, there`s a very good reason very few leave the public sector for the private sector 

I`m pretty sure 90% plus of the general public don`t have a clue how well remunerated a lot of the public sector are ,that's even before pensions are taken into account ,a few months of disclosure by the MSM and the pitch forks would be out 

Most of the people I work with don’t understand how generous the pensions are. 

[Long time lurking]

4 minutes ago, marceau said:

Elections make no difference whatsoever.

Rome was never bothered by the plebs in the slightest at any stage, regardless of bread or circuses. Even slaves caused them more trouble than the plebs.

The general public will do whatever the govt tells them, be that clap like seals for the NHS, or freeze their granny to death for Ukraine. Individuals may differ, but the herd will always be the herd.

Now they will because the Bread and circuses are palcitating them ,that`s what it`s all about 

If that is not financially viable ,by borrowing 10`s if not 100`s of billions per year i can guarantee you that will change,but if it is viable i agree they will carry on clapping like seals 

[Long time lurking]

4 minutes ago, Shamone said:

Most of the people I work with don’t understand how generous the pensions are. 

Most of the people in receipt of them don`t 

[marceau]

1 minute ago, Long time lurking said:

Now they will because the Bread and circuses are palcitating them ,that`s what it`s all about 

If that is not financially viable ,by borrowing 10`s if not 100`s of billions per year i can guarantee you that will change,but if it is viable i agree they will carry on clapping like seals 

We'll have to agree to disagree.

They've stayed placated during mass child rape, ethnic cleansing from their own cities, legal dhimmi status, total destruction of societal norms and now gender mutilation and sexual predation of their kids. Imo they'll starve with their hands out before they rebel.

[Long time lurking]

Just now, marceau said:

We'll have to agree to disagree.

They've stayed placated during mass child rape, ethnic cleansing from their own cities, legal dhimmi status, total destruction of societal norms and now gender mutilation and sexual predation of their kids. Imo they'll starve with their hands out before they rebel.

The romans paid to watch lions eat Christians it did not bother them until they went hungry 

I`m guessing you work in the public sector ?

[Talking Monkey]

13 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Yep i agree if it`s just a changing of the guard nothing much will change 

What i`m talking about is a shit hitting the fan moment ,in that scenario the public sector will be ripe for levelling down and it would be simple to do it if the will is there, there`s a very good reason very few leave the public sector for the private sector 

I`m pretty sure 90% plus of the general public don`t have a clue how well remunerated a lot of the public sector are ,that's even before pensions are taken into account ,a few months of disclosure by the MSM and the pitch forks would be out 

Thats exactly how I think it will go. The shit will hit the fan epic style at some point and levelling down will be the route chosen. Its all going to collapse at some point and when it does the will to do whats needed will be there as there will be no other choice. 

[marceau]

1 minute ago, Long time lurking said:

The romans paid to watch lions eat Christians it did not bother them until they went hungry 

I`m guessing you work in the public sector ?

The roman plebs did nothing when they went hungry but cry out for food. I still have a lot of faith in my countrymen, but expecting change to come from the bottom is only going to end in disappointment.

As for the public sector, I haven't been near it since the dying days of Brown and the dumb days of the coalition. Although admittedly when it comes to the British state I take and give nothing back, so I guess I'm still following the model.

[Long time lurking]

1 minute ago, marceau said:

The roman plebs did nothing when they went hungry but cry out for food. I still have a lot of faith in my countrymen, but expecting change to come from the bottom is only going to end in disappointment.

Well i went to London in 1990 ,the bottom forced the governments hand in one day ,if it gets bad enough they will rise now just like they did then 

that`s what bread and circuses is there to stop ,the government knows it`s a possibility hence the laws they have been pushing through regarding protests but they will achieve fuck all if it gets bad enough 

[Long time lurking]

14 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Thats exactly how I think it will go. The shit will hit the fan epic style at some point and levelling down will be the route chosen. Its all going to collapse at some point and when it does the will to do whats needed will be there as there will be no other choice. 

If China Russia etc succeed in what they are doing i think it`s game over when it comes to running huge deficits to prop up the welfare sate/public sector ,but i think other things such as infrastructure spending and public sector spending will be sacrificed long before the welfare sate 

[marceau]

7 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Well i went to London in 1990 ,the bottom forced the governments hand in one day ,if it gets bad enough they will rise now just like they did then 

that`s what bread and circuses is there to stop ,the government knows it`s a possibility hence the laws they have been pushing through regarding protests but they will achieve fuck all if it gets bad enough 

The poll tax riots were fruitful because what would eventually be called the 'Blairite' or 'People like us' factions allowed them to be so. No amount of miners rioting for example, would, or could, have achieved the same effect for themselves. Those factions of the British state were well beyond Thatcherism while she was still in power. They enabled the ascent of Major in service of their aims in the same way that they've just enabled the ascent of Sunak.

State power gets what it wants, as long as it's physically possible, everything else is just window dressing. Reform comes from competing elites, or outside takeovers, not the plebs.

Edited March 26, 2023 by marceau

[Errol]

 

Edited March 26, 2023 by Errol