Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[DurhamBorn]

Iv made good money in the miners over the decades,but i have always found buy them when the PE is huge ie they are hated and losing money hand over fist,sell them when the PEs are tiny and they are making money hand over fist.Of course this cycle could be very different and the downside levels might be much higher than in the past.

[Sidd]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes,you would think the other way around,but once they are here the guy slowly loses the power.The ones who come back here tend to be younger and still working.They assume once they get the "wife" a right to remain they can spend retirement between here and there,or mostly there,but she is usually off long before that.

What is very interesting though is tied in to this thread.The transfer of power and wealth to EMs.The truth is average UK guys simply cannot afford a Thai girlfriend/wife anymore.Its still cheaper there of course,but the gap is closing all the time and as final salary pensions are running off outside the private sector there just isnt the income.The average UK guy is simply not attractive anymore to most women as their earning power,health and status have been removed over the last 30 years.

This is massive, as not only have options in the primary host country (the UK in this case) diminished, but options abroad are closing down too rapidly. The roles will be reversed for many and they will now get a flavour of how it feels to be truly impoverished like much of the developing world people have been subject to.

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Sidd said:

This is massive, as not only have options in the primary host country (the UK in this case) diminished, but options abroad are closing down too rapidly. The roles will be reversed for many and they will now get a flavour of how it feels to be truly impoverished like much of the developing world people have been subject to.

Agree,thats exactly the message.End of a huge structural cycle for both sides.Here,its why so many are scruffy,fat and ugly.They can still have a decent life by not giving a shit.However once the free money is removed,the cheap food and energy,well then your reduced to being the lowest of the low.Overweight,skint white blokes are first for the chop as we are now seeing.It will spread though.The macro sits under it all like it always does.Soon a huge chunk of people will have nothing to offer anyone.If bennies were ever cut or removed it will be carnage.

[Lightscribe]

18 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Agree,thats exactly the message.End of a huge structural cycle for both sides.Here,its why so many are scruffy,fat and ugly.They can still have a decent life by not giving a shit.However once the free money is removed,the cheap food and energy,well then your reduced to being the lowest of the low.Overweight,skint white blokes are first for the chop as we are now seeing.It will spread though.The macro sits under it all like it always does.Soon a huge chunk of people will have nothing to offer anyone.If bennies were ever cut or removed it will be carnage.

My brothers just come back. If you want a decently located two bedroom apartment in the likes of Pattaya you’ll be paying £250k. The divorced public sector boomers have pushed the prices through the roof.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Highest percentage past 60 days late on car payments since 94. 

Surely this all comes to a head next year.

[Funn3r]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Korean my friend told me is the new big money,and the girls like Korean guys as they hate fat smelly blokes and Koreans are in good shape and clean.I bought SK Telecom 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12652597/British-pensioner-89-falls-death-fifth-floor-balcony-Thailand.html

[ashestoashes]

Just now, Funn3r said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12652597/British-pensioner-89-falls-death-fifth-floor-balcony-Thailand.html

not a happy ending

[Funn3r]

3 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

not a happy ending

A wakeup call to all of us. It's not all about the joy of your shares being green today. I intuitively feel I will get to 89 myself and wondering whether I will be happy about it or not.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

My brothers just come back. If you want a decently located two bedroom apartment in the likes of Pattaya you’ll be paying £250k. The divorced public sector boomers have pushed the prices through the roof.

Its beyond parody isnt it.Private sector who manage to retire cannot even get boom boom in Pattaya due to retired public sector living there.I saw a comment from the government yesterday about how public sector pensions were fair when they are really hugely unfair.Of course its not just private sector being stuffed,its younger workers in the public sector who will see the age they can access pushed back and back.If the government dont reform them and bennies then they will take everything from everyone else,everything.What a choice at the next election.

[BurntBread]

29 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

A wakeup call to all of us. It's not all about the joy of your shares being green today. I intuitively feel I will get to 89 myself and wondering whether I will be happy about it or not.

"We all want to reach old age, and then grumble when we get it" (Cicero probably, although I may be wrong?)

I think it depends. A chap at the place I used to work was a research scientist, who retired a long time before. However, he liked the work and the company let him have some desk and lab space, and he would potter around in there a couple of days a week. Even more usefully, he used to mentor some of the younger scientists, as he was a good one himself. I didn't know him at all well, but I would exchange some words with him occasionally during the nature walks that some of the people organised near the site.

Coincidentally, he also died at 89, while in otherwise good health. He was on a walking holiday, and collapsed of a heart attack, and died on the spot (this was 2010, so nothing to do with the current nonsense). I thought at the time, and have thought ever since, that in an ideal world, that's how I would like to go.

[F150]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Highest percentage past 60 days late on car payments since 94. 

Surely this all comes to a head next year.

Said this ages ago

the age of the car is OVER!

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

My brothers just come back. If you want a decently located two bedroom apartment in the likes of Pattaya you’ll be paying £250k. The divorced public sector boomers have pushed the prices through the roof.

@montecristo you must be able to manage it cheaper than 11m?

 

[Lightscribe]

Limits to Growth…

 

Edited October 22, 2023 by Lightscribe

[montecristo]

10 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

@montecristo you must be able to manage it cheaper than 11m?

 

Yes.  Most 2 bedrooms are 6m in central Pattaya but you wouldn't want to live there.  Just outside central then prices are 4m and less.

[Lightscribe]

1 hour ago, montecristo said:

Yes.  Most 2 bedrooms are 6m in central Pattaya but you wouldn't want to live there.  Just outside central then prices are 4m and less.

I’m not saying you can’t get cheaper properties, I’m just saying what my brother has seen central prime stuff (in Pattaya especially due the retired western divorcees) to the beachfront. When I was there (travelling around in Thailand for several months in 2008 there wasn’t anything like that)

[NogintheNog]

9 hours ago, Castlevania said:

All the green energy companies are issuing profit warnings left right and centre. Not sure if the demand is there.

I assume you are referring to the Green Energy constructors here? The likes of Siemens Gamesa. And that's my point. The whole Net Zero narrative is total BS and can't be paid for by our current spending. It's gonna take huge government input, a bit like the US Green Deal, only bigger. That'll be paid for by QE 5 or 6, or whatever one we're at now in the UK.

The winners from that will be the commodity producers and miners.

Alternatively however if they do the right thing and back away from all this green bollox, then the traditional energy suppliers/complex will thrive. Either way I have investments in both, so I think I've hedged myself for whatever these idiots do.

[PETR4]

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Limits to Growth…

 

Have the "Observed Trend Line 1970 - 2010" ever been updated?

I'd be interested to see that chart.

[Long time lurking]

[Harley]

12 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Limits to Growth…

 

Amazing first chart.  As an oil brat I lived a global life on that chart.  They really were amazing times. 

And a bit stressful with the odd coup, etc!  Me dad was in the right place at the right time and he and me mum had the right spirit.  Lied about his age to get on his first oil field.  Became one of the old guard.  Told me not to bother though so I rode new waves.  The number at his funeral was mental, real guys with dirty boots and hard hats.  He must have loved it.

So @Cattle Prod posts are particularly precious, especially as he seems to own a good pair of boots!

Above all though, I'm glad to see I'm still too young to be a father of this new generation of commentators! 

PS:  Second chart:  Oh, so that's where 2030 comes from.  These charts never do well though.  Look at Malthus and onwards:  Funny it's tech type people pushing the 2030 agenda and with loads of tech talk yet it was tech that ensured Malthus' prediction was a dud.

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Harley

[Harley]

17 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv made good money in the miners over the decades,but i have always found buy them when the PE is huge ie they are hated and losing money hand over fist,sell them when the PEs are tiny and they are making money hand over fist.Of course this cycle could be very different and the downside levels might be much higher than in the past.

Yep but sold out at the Jan23 top.  One to watch closely though.  Maybe further to go on the ETFs but AAL is showing an interesting emerging chart pattern so one we're watching.  On resources generally, short Brent still seems to want to go higher.  The recent tensions have kinked the lines but enough to change the trend?  That's the fun stuff:  chart v narrative.

Edited October 23, 2023 by Harley

[Lightscribe]

7 minutes ago, Harley said:

Amazing first chart.  As an oil brat I lived a global life on that chart.  They really were amazing times.  And a bit stressful with the odd coup, etc!  Me dad was in the right place at the right time and he and me mum had the right spirit.  Above all, I'm glad to see I'm still too young to be a father of this new generation of commentators! 

PS:  Second chart:  Oh, so that's where 2030 comes from.  These charts never do well though.  Look at Malthus and onwards:  Funny it's tech type people pushing the 2030 agenda and with loads of tech talk yet it was tech that ensured Malthus' prediction was a dud.

The second chart comes from the Club of Rome, Limits to Growth study (world 3 model) and yes it’s what the politicians/WEF are working their ‘sustainable’ policies from.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth
 

Brief analysis of the book

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

The second chart comes from the Club of Rome, Limits to Growth study (world 3 model) and yes it’s what the politicians/WEF are working their ‘sustainable’ policies from.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth
 

Brief analysis of the book

I think for us we need to go forward knowing,at least for now this is true.My inital numbers showed this,but i expected it would force investment from government in the backbone of the economy,but so far nothing,they are simply welfare spending instead.I have seen a lot about allocation for risk on here lately.I think the problem with that is although it should avoid wipeout is also likely means slowly losing everything inflation adjusted.Getting an income and holding capital value is going to be very very difficult.Its much worse than i expected.There should be plenty of stocks that should manage it from here,but many more wont.If we are ex growth then its crucial we hold sectors who can hold or increase demand on top of increasing prices.I am worried though.The huge macro signals are being ignored by government.The state is on its way to take everything from private sector workers.The tax allowance freezes with massive bennie and pension increases are the tell.

[spygirl]

US bond yields rise further on interest rate concerns

George Steer in London

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond rose to within touching distance of 5 per cent on Monday, extending a steady repricing of US government debt that has been fuelled by a string of stronger than expected economic data.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think for us we need to go forward knowing,at least for now this is true.My inital numbers showed this,but i expected it would force investment from government in the backbone of the economy,but so far nothing,they are simply welfare spending instead.I have seen a lot about allocation for risk on here lately.I think the problem with that is although it should avoid wipeout is also likely means slowly losing everything inflation adjusted.Getting an income and holding capital value is going to be very very difficult.Its much worse than i expected.There should be plenty of stocks that should manage it from here,but many more wont.If we are ex growth then its crucial we hold sectors who can hold or increase demand on top of increasing prices.I am worried though.The huge macro signals are being ignored by government.The state is on its way to take everything from private sector workers.The tax allowance freezes with massive bennie and pension increases are the tell.

Re that last bit it's also via public sector pay rises, protecting the NHS etc the money doesn't go on better frontline services, it's largely going on wages that lead to more pension liabilities. Where's the pain for council executives etc. while they are upping the council tax?

[Loki]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

US bond yields rise further on interest rate concerns

George Steer in London

The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond rose to within touching distance of 5 per cent on Monday, extending a steady repricing of US government debt that has been fuelled by a string of stronger than expected economic data.

5.022% already