Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[DurhamBorn]

41 minutes ago, Loki said:

Not really macro but you're into healthy eating etc, what do you think about the eco-loons war on meat?

I eat loads of meat since i lowered my carbs,having a roast beef dinner tonight,but only very small portion of potatoes.I think all these things are simply to lower consumption because we wont be able to pay for the energy.The rich want to keep it whats left for themselves.I suspect they would love to lower the world population,but dont fancy a nuclear wasteland,so might go for mass starvation instead,and then tell you how lucky you are to have some pea protein to eat.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

I eat loads of meat since i lowered my carbs,having a roast beef dinner tonight,but only very small portion of potatoes.I think all these things are simply to lower consumption because we wont be able to pay for the energy.The rich want to keep it whats left for themselves.I suspect they would love to lower the world population,but dont fancy a nuclear wasteland,so might go for mass starvation instead,and then tell you how lucky you are to have some pea protein to eat.

Well this is it, if they go for that option it'll be chaos and long term food stores might be more immediately valuable than stocks etc 

[Long time lurking]

Sounds serious ,don`t shoot the messenger i have not got a clue what it`s all about other than impeachment 

Link to the tweet for those interested in the link provided therr  https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/status/1675891057844781060?s=20

[Long time lurking]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

Well this is it, if they go for that option it'll be chaos and long term food stores might be more immediately valuable than stocks etc 

Naah if it`s about anything it`s about the long game and Russia they are hugely dependant on fossil fuels for their income ,one of the if not the largest investors in the country outside of that sector was the automobile industry 

That game is well and truly fucked IMO as it was dependant on China not siding with them that's why the coof definitely didn`t come from China until it definitely did 

[Sugarlips]

5 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Great discussion about the madness of housing focused mostly on Australia 

But not much different to the UK

https://www.dropbox.com/s/eih2iaysooiyvq3/woooooo.mp3?dl=1

Great listen but can probably be distilled into Sydney lending is now 13-14x salary 🤡 and this graph. This is fine!

[One percent]

10 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Sounds serious ,don`t shoot the messenger i have not got a clue what it`s all about other than impeachment 

Link to the tweet for those interested in the link provided therr  https://twitter.com/thesiriusreport/status/1675891057844781060?s=20

Isn’t this why they indicted trump, so that they could set a precedent and then go after the corrupt ones.  

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

Germany continues to show a bit of (Miteleuropa) leg, one day it and Russia are bound to get it on!!     (...politically and economically I mean of course)

[Long time lurking]

3 minutes ago, JMD said:

Germany continues to show a bit of (Miteleuropa) leg, one day it and Russia are bound to get it on!!     (...politically and economically I mean of course)

You would hope so ,i think this winter could be the defining point ,which will point to that timeline ,it was obvious this time last year Europe was not going to Freeze ,yet it`s a very long way from that certainty this year ,but the markets seem to think the opposite so who knows 

You have to look at the situation objectively as well ,Germany & Europe are being blackmailed by both sides USA and the Ukraine ,as they still get a significant amount of gas and oil from Russia via pipe lines going through the Ukraine if that stops they are well and truly up the swanie 

[Long time lurking]

29 minutes ago, One percent said:

Isn’t this why they indicted trump, so that they could set a precedent and then go after the corrupt ones.  

Fuck knows ,but the video of hunter driving at 175mph whilst smoking crack has not gone down well today 

[Sugarlips]

Last time the US 2yr was at 5% was March when the regional banks got rekt..

[Stuey]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

Well this is it, if they go for that option it'll be chaos and long term food stores might be more immediately valuable than stocks etc 

The trick is in getting long term stores that are palatable but not so much so that you are tempted to eat. Fortunately I overdid it with stewed steak and chicken in white sauce so my remaining stash is now pretty safe. 

[AWW]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

You're not though are you

I get the theory, but if you look at the chart, you're catching a falling knife. It's not like an interest bearing account where the sooner you get in, the more interest you earn. Don't get me wrong, I think they're an OK buy... but I'll be waiting until the return is at least 150bps higher than here.

[Sugarlips]

George Gammon recommendation re US shadow banking

 

[Cattle Prod]

Per my earlier post, BP out, India in:

Now why would Rosneft elect him to the board? I can tell you India has no particular oil and gas expertise…

Edited July 3, 2023 by Cattle Prod

[Errol]

He does a good curry?

[leonardratso]

its that fantastic moustache, all men dream of a curly upturned moustasche, it can get you far in life. even if its just painted on.

[RupertT]

2 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Great listen but can probably be distilled into Sydney lending is now 13-14x salary 🤡 and this graph. This is fine!

It's not looking good for Finland

[McKay]

3 hours ago, working woman said:

Thank you DB for your updated thoughts and figures on EMs.

I would say when investing in Asia, take the prevailing religion/work ethic/social security system of the country into account.

Re Malaysia - We have been to Malaysia twice, went earlier this year, a fantastic country and very interesting.

A former British colony, where the population is a mix of Indian, Chinese and Malay and hence a mix of religions.

Chatting to a tax i driver, I asked what help people got if unemployed. He said there was no social security system like ours.

I asked about health care, he said employers pays for your costs such as visits to the Doctors and Hospitals. 

So it sounds like if you don't work, you are stuck.  So a strong work ethic there out of necessity.

I kept v quiet about what goes on in our country.

I saw a lot of very hard working and intelligent people there. They obviously needed to work as there was no state help.

They were all very honest people. No messing around with dodgy cab drivers ripping you off.

There is a real cultural and religious mix there.

However, we took a tour of the old mosque in Kuala Lumpur and interestingly, there were dozens of young Muslim men asleep on the floor in the prayer halls and gardens. Why weren't they out at work? Maybe students.

The Muslim women we met were lovely and hard working.

Malaysia also has oil.  I had a walk around the twin Petronas Towers.

I would invest in Malaysia as it wants to be a very modern country. It already is in so many ways.

Re South Korea - I have mentioned before I worked for one of the big 4 companies in their office in London 20 years ago.

The SK Govt, put money into these businesses to make them grow. Not sure how/if you can invest in them.

Of the 4 Samsung took the best path as they invested in the semi-conductor business.

Very hard working and intelligent people who strive to be modern. My bosses wives  dressed in a "Quaint English  Style" Think an oriental version of Miss Marple with bucket style sun hats. Very odd.  A few of my bosses had gambling and drink addictions to cope with the long hours. They were all required to work in the office Saturday morning and play golf together in the afternoon and only had Sunday off.  They are Team Players, no time for disruptive Individualism in the work place.

Re K Pop Bands - waiting for our flight home in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, hundreds of teenage girls ran screaming through the airport. I thought a gun man was on the loose. I asked someone what was going on and it turned out a popular K Pop band was visiting Malaysia and was due to arrive at the airport in a short while. Sadly my flight left before they got there so I never got to see them, but it was like how girls acted when they saw the Beatles. Pure Hysteria. 

 

To give another perspective before everyone rushes in to invest! I’ve worked in Malaysia a number of times. My impression is that the top level of business there is corrupt. There are simmering ethnic divisions and a recent history of large scale ethnic violence. islam is taken seriously and is responsible for a distaste towards non Muslims that is present just below the surface. There is a separatist movement in Sarawak, Borneo that threatens to escalate into violence. 

They are however thankful to the British for creating their country, allowing them freedom of religion, creating infrastructure and industry, giving them football and defeating the Japanese during the war and communists after it. No bitter Indian style twisting of history for the Malaysians, I think due to the honesty of the every day Malaysian that is present as you said. 

[DurhamBorn]

57 minutes ago, McKay said:

To give another perspective before everyone rushes in to invest! I’ve worked in Malaysia a number of times. My impression is that the top level of business there is corrupt. There are simmering ethnic divisions and a recent history of large scale ethnic violence. islam is taken seriously and is responsible for a distaste towards non Muslims that is present just below the surface. There is a separatist movement in Sarawak, Borneo that threatens to escalate into violence. 

They are however thankful to the British for creating their country, allowing them freedom of religion, creating infrastructure and industry, giving them football and defeating the Japanese during the war and communists after it. No bitter Indian style twisting of history for the Malaysians, I think due to the honesty of the every day Malaysian that is present as you said. 

I think on Asia,its South Korea,China,then out to other areas,Indonesia,Thailand ,Malaysia etc.Its incredible when i look at the number that our polos thought they could sanction Russian oil.Seems to me by diverting energy to Asia they are just making sure they can have a circular economy there.The west still has some big advantages,but they are getting much smaller.The Germans deciding to destroy their car industry,Holland their food production.Its obvious the US know they have their energy and Canada's,Europe and the UK have been played for the fools they are.

Edited July 3, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[Long time lurking]

59 minutes ago, RupertT said:

It's not looking good for Finland

It`s not looking good for the motor industry either ,i`m going to have to take Mr tebibits advice and get on me bike ( well it will be a van conversion) as the Steel industry is already showing signs of despair 

[Wight Flight]

1 hour ago, RupertT said:

It's not looking good for Finland

I blame the immigrants.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

On 01/07/2023 at 18:43, onlyme said:

There seems to be a staggering difference betwen UK and the US for some staples.  Various reports back from there on the ground have some eye popping prices like a head of lettuce for $4, ok organic one maybe but not exactly much difference organic/non organic for that type of produce woudld have thought. If we ever equalise to their pricing there is another inflation shock in the pipeline - especially if the WEFfers manage to shut down significant proportions of the production capacity  in the likes of Holland who alone must pull down produce prices across Europe significantly. Spain have low inflation at the moment, maybe their local food production without significant energy inputs is key to that. Just cannot fathom the US though.

 

Just back from Spain. Prices seemed similar to a year ago. 3 euros for a large beer.  Although they couldn't be bothered to work out the prices properly. When the boss charged for 12 beers it was 36 euros. The next day the same order from a different member of staff was 30 euros. Somewhere else two of them had to look at the table, have a bit of a chat and then charge 12.50 for a large beer, a small beer and three ice creams.

Food prices seemed similar to a year ago and we spent roughly the same.

Edited July 3, 2023 by Yadda yadda yadda

[Long time lurking]

So the Russian embassy in Kenya just said the BRICS are going to announce the issue/launch of a gold backed trade currency today 

China also announced they now control the supply china for solar panels  

Then you have Janet Yellen making what some says is an uninvited visit to China tomorrow just liked Blinken did a few weeks ago 

Now china comes out with this 

 

i

 

[CannonFodder]

1 minute ago, Long time lurking said:

So the Russian embassy in Kenya just said the BRICS are going to announce the issue/launch of a gold backed trade currency today 

China also announced they now control the supply china for solar panels  

Then you have Janet Yellen making what some says is an uninvited visit to China tomorrow just liked Blinken did a few weeks ago 

Now china comes out with this 

 

i

 

Chips chips chips 

Did you know ukraine produces 90% of high quality neon needed for world microchip production.

Most of it comes from Odessa and Mariupol (or came from)

[geordie_lurch]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The rich want to keep it whats left for themselves.I suspect they would love to lower the world population,but dont fancy a nuclear wasteland,so might go for mass starvation instead,and then tell you how lucky you are to have some pea protein to eat.

Yep but you've missed the crucial role Covid and the mRNA 'vaccines' are playing in accomplishing their Great Reset goals of lowering the amount of "useless eaters" we are known as by them.

I don't want to clutter this thread up but would highly recommend some of you venture into the Covid threads to see multiple evidence based posts about some of the largest macro trends ever seen such as excess deaths still running at around 20% in highly vaccinated countries (but not due to Covid) at the same time as birth rates are plummeting 

Edited July 3, 2023 by geordie_lurch