Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[Long time lurking]

4 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Chips chips chips 

Did you know ukraine produces 90% of high quality neon needed for world microchip production.

Most of it comes from Odessa and Mariupol (or came from)

Most came from Mariupol, Odessa was where it was exported from/processed it was made/recovered from the Avostal steel plant (now defunct i believe it`s demolition has already started) from what i have read steel making is the most economic way of capturing it as it`s a by product 

I didn't think it was that high a % as Russia produces a fairly large quantity 

This is why those that think the USA are going to be the next manufacturing Nirvana are severely mistaken as the countries they are trying to crush control everything they need to make that happen when it comes to a competitive price then you have the list of "unfriendly countries" is growing by the week 

[Long time lurking]

[CannonFodder]

30 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Most came from Mariupol, Odessa was where it was exported from/processed it was made/recovered from the Avostal steel plant (now defunct i believe it`s demolition has already started) from what i have read steel making is the most economic way of capturing it as it`s a by product 

I didn't think it was that high a % as Russia produces a fairly large quantity 

This is why those that think the USA are going to be the next manufacturing Nirvana are severely mistaken as the countries they are trying to crush control everything they need to make that happen when it comes to a competitive price then you have the list of "unfriendly countries" is growing by the week 

Its the scale of the steel plants - soviets had city sized ones due to their planning. Oxygen is used for furnaces so spilt from air. When you spilt a lot of air - neon is 0.0018% of air so worth capturing alongside oxygen..

[Yadda yadda yadda]

4 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

It`s all a psyop and 15 minute cites are all about money ,it`s another fucking tax grab 

The new ULEZ in London is taking an hammering from a few guys going under the name of ULEZ blade runners ,they posted a video the other day with a lockup full of cameras at £2 k a pop some are being put up in the morning and they are gone by the afternoon ,they are even nicking the surveillance cameras put up to trying and catch them,they said no one try's to stop them they just cheer them on  

But the real danger comes from opposition parties pledging to get rid of them,(see Cambridge) no one wants to step off the Gravy train 

As for the eco shit watch Holland ,it will be run by farmers soon,they have a foot hold already and it`s gained huge support  

The ULEZ cameras are definitely going up more quickly than they're being taken down. They're very ugly and noticeable. The low height and angle is also suspicious. I suspect they can see who is driving the vehicle. At the very least enforcement photos will show the driver as well as the numberplate.

[CannonFodder]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

So the Russian embassy in Kenya just said the BRICS are going to announce the issue/launch of a gold backed trade currency today 

China also announced they now control the supply china for solar panels  

Then you have Janet Yellen making what some says is an uninvited visit to  tomorrow just liked Blinken did a few weeks ago 

Now china comes out with this 

 

i

 

I had a read- china produces 94% of gallium, used in telecommunications equipment - Huawei might be only option lol

Also used in high end military radars, air defense etc

[Long time lurking]

16 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

I had a read- china produces 94% of gallium, used in telecommunications equipment - Huawei might be only option lol

Also used in high end military radars, air defense etc

You could not make this shit up ,we are fucked ,we are trying to bully Mr Bumble ,we will will soon be asking, please can we have some more sir  

And BTW whats 10grams or so worth i still have some i bought a few years ago 

Edited July 3, 2023 by Long time lurking

[Long time lurking]

26 minutes ago, CannonFodder said:

Its the scale of the steel plants - soviets had city sized ones due to their planning. Oxygen is used for furnaces so spilt from air. When you spilt a lot of air - neon is 0.0018% of air so worth capturing alongside oxygen..

Yes it`s the high purity part that mislead me ,it don`t come from the furnaces IIRC it comes from the BOS plant`s (Basic Oxygen System ) it`s where they convert iron into steel they basically pump vast amounts of oxy through the molten iron along with argon  

I have spent a lot of time working in BOS plants in the UK and a few in Europe it all goes up the chimneys here sadly there's only two of any size left in the UK now 

 

[CannonFodder]

10 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Yes it`s the high purity part that mislead me ,it don`t come from the furnaces IIRC it comes from the BOS plant`s (Basic Oxygen System ) it`s where they convert iron into steel they basically pump vast amounts of oxy through the molten iron along with argon  

I have spent a lot of time working in BOS plants in the UK and a few in Europe it all goes up the chimneys here sadly there's only two of any size left in the UK now 

 

Dont worry we can build more steel plants supported by our world class and plentiful energy supply and abundent water supply manned by workers commuting on a reliable train service, motivated workers who dont mind few years less life expectancy with warmed up innards as opposed to a longer life on benefits

[Transistor Man]

2 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

 

That reminds me, who announced in April they were providing $250 million to get mines in DRC running again, and that they would take all the Zinc concentrate for smelting for 5 years? That’s Concentrate rich in gallium and germanium. Yep, Glencore. 
 

[JMD]

5 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

You would hope so ,i think this winter could be the defining point ,which will point to that timeline ,it was obvious this time last year Europe was not going to Freeze ,yet it`s a very long way from that certainty this year ,but the markets seem to think the opposite so who knows 

You have to look at the situation objectively as well ,Germany & Europe are being blackmailed by both sides USA and the Ukraine ,as they still get a significant amount of gas and oil from Russia via pipe lines going through the Ukraine if that stops they are well and truly up the swanie 

Yes I think Russia would rather be top dog in Europe (...well at least be equal partner to Germany; France will then be pushed aside) - than play junior partner to China. It seems a natural symbiotic solution especially given the emerging brutal realities of the multi-polar world slouching into existence...    My assumption would be for this European raproachment to happen sometime before end of the decade, but I would specifically be looking for German signalling and how much pain it is willing to absorb from the looming financial crises and energy shocks. Where all this geopolitics leaves Old Blighty I dread to think.

[wherebee]

11 hours ago, No One said:

I have a trick for this, for once I can offer something in return for your not-financial-advise stock picks. This comes from a conversation I had with some mates during a pub quiz. 

Group of 5 including me sitting round a table discussing a friend and his young new GF, and his ex who had previously been married to another man, had not managed to get the house. 

To prevent their son from getting rinsed by the female, his parents loaned both of them money to buy the house. In the case of divorce, the debt outstanding on the house is still owed to the parents which she still has to pay, the son paying his parents is a round about way to keep the money in the family. 

Another case is that of some footballer in Morocco who gave all his income to his mother and his mother would buy him the things he wanted, house, lambo etc, but in her name. Since she is married to him and not his mother, no divorce settlement will allow the woman to take whats his. 

This is probably the very definition of an original version of the Trust. You have 100% trust is another party, which is not the spouse, to protect yourself from the spouse stealing your wealth via feminists divorce laws.

Trusts were indeed created to protect family wealth from corrupt rulers.  Sound familiar?

The Trustee was supposed to be someone who you trusted (gettit?) and the rules of the Trust minimised how much the trustee could do, so even if the king said to the Trustee 'give me all the money' the Trustee could not.  As it was tied into legal rights, the courts sided with the Trust, not the King, or else the judges etc would face losing everything as well.

The examples you give above are basically weak trusts with no recourse if the relative goes mad, but pretty good in terms of a cheap way of protecting family assets.  Of course, if the parents die, the money goes to the son anyway and the wife gets her claws out....

[wherebee]

6 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

Great listen but can probably be distilled into Sydney lending is now 13-14x salary 🤡 and this graph. This is fine!

If my wife died, I would sell this place for 2 mill, take the money, exchange for gold, buy a place in the bush for 100k bury the gold, and then come back into civilisation when the reset happens in the next 5 years.  That would let me buy the kids a house each in a decent regional town, I reckon, with enough left over to set them up for a decent life.

she'd never go for it though - grew up in the african bush, and likes running water and no snakes under the bed too much.

[Long time lurking]

2 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

That reminds me, who announced in April they were providing $250 million to get mines in DRC running again, and that they would take all the Zinc concentrate for smelting for 5 years? That’s Concentrate rich in gallium and germanium. Yep, Glencore. 
 

I thought Newcrest were the major player and it was all dependant on the hydro dam China are building there ,the DRC have not got the electric capacity for any major smelting plant at this point in time i`m pretty sure they only have one or two coal fired PowerStation's ,mates of mine had to be airlifted out of one of them by the UN 10 years or so ago as civil war broke out and the rebels had it surrounded when they were stripping one of the turbines 

[Stuey]

4 hours ago, wherebee said:

If my wife died, I would sell this place for 2 mill, take the money, exchange for gold, buy a place in the bush for 100k bury the gold, and then come back into civilisation when the reset happens in the next 5 years. 

I think many on here will be waiting for some great reset for longer than they waited for a HPC.

[Viceroy]

13 hours ago, janch said:

I lived in Malaya (as it was then) for 2 plus years as a very young child but I remember some of it vividly.  I was an army brat and my parents had a brilliant ex-pat life while we were there.

The thing which impressed me most about the people as I think back was how they all worked really hard but also all got on really well so integration had really worked in that society.  There seemed to be roughtly one third Chinese, one third Indian, one third native Malay.  The different nationalities tended to specialise eg Chinese were be tailors/shopkeepers more than the other nationalities.  Some people were dirt poor but as far as I remember they were always cheerful.

The best place to go if you do go over there is Penang which is fantastic and when I listened to a recent R4 programme has hardly changed in the intervening years with amazing temples/old colonial houses and a funicular railway to the top of Penang Hill where if I remember accurately there was a rather good childrens' playground!

 

I was an army kid too, mostly Germany & Uk in the 80s and early 90s. 

My Dad was stationed a few years in Malaya in the 60s and in his retirement loved to return and visit Penang, Cameron Highlands etc. He said the Chinese Malay held the country together and were the true workers/entrepreneurs. 

Edited July 4, 2023 by Viceroy

[jamtomorrow]

8 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

That reminds me, who announced in April they were providing $250 million to get mines in DRC running again, and that they would take all the Zinc concentrate for smelting for 5 years? That’s Concentrate rich in gallium and germanium. Yep, Glencore. 
 

Shame it's Glencore and not Rio or Anglo or BHP. I just don't trust their management, they seem to have an unhappy knack of tripping over their own shoe laces in front of open goals.

[DoINeedOne]

I don't want to throw this thread off subject, but last night I found out a good friend of mine that I've known since we were kids committed suicide over the weekend

Im struggling to believe its true, as he seemed one of the happiest guys I knew, The last person I would ever expect to do that which just shows how we don't know if someones struggling on the inside unless we talk more, but men mostly don't

I think life is becoming a struggle for alot people, most people want is a simple life with family and friends but it seems to get more complex and hard as we go on

 

We all need to focus more on our health especially our mental heath

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 4, 2023 by DoINeedOne

[crashmonitor]

https://intelligent-partnership.com/uk-pension-performance-among-worst-in-developed-world/

 

This will become a big issue for those not  enjoying public sector gold plated linkers. The performance of pension funds when left to Market and not subbed by the taxpayer is beyond dreadful since the eve of the Pandemic..31st January 2020. I've checked the performance of mine from trustnet from that date..an  increase of just 8.9%..yet the performance of the fund over the last three years is in quartile one!!! Fortunately it only accounts for 10% of my Equity.

 

Meanwhile the eejit, Bailey, has printed nearly 25% of inflation since that date. This is not just an issue with pensions, it's all savings not keeping pace with inflation. Pensions have only mirrored the average performance elsewhere. 

 

I guess the culprits, the Government and the BOE must be loving this. Wealth is not absolute but how you compare to the rest of the population. The Government and the clown Bailey have every incentive to print the competition out of existence. Their pensions should be tied to the 2% target, wonder if then they would keep printing to placate those on bennies.

 

Edited July 4, 2023 by crashmonitor

[Long-game]

28 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

I don't want to throw this thread off subject, but last night I found out a good friend of mine that I've known since we were kids committed suicide over the weekend

Im struggling to believe its true, as he seemed one of the happiest guys I knew, The last person I would ever expect to do that which just shows how we don't know if someones struggling on the inside unless we talk more, but men mostly don't

I think life is becoming a struggle for alot people, all most people want is a simple life with family and friends but it seems to get more complex and hard as we go on

 

We all need to focus more on our health especially our mental heath

 

 

 

 

 

 

Indeed it's good to be financially literate and live comfortably, but life is too short to let it overcome your life and deny certain pleasure imho. No good living like one cut from the  old Presbyterian ethic 😊.

[DurhamBorn]

43 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

https://intelligent-partnership.com/uk-pension-performance-among-worst-in-developed-world/

 

This will become a big issue for those not  enjoying public sector gold plated linkers. The performance of pension funds when left to Market and not subbed by the taxpayer is beyond dreadful since the eve of the Pandemic..31st January 2020. I've checked the performance of mine from trustnet from that date..an  increase of just 8.9%..yet the performance of the fund over the last three years is in quartile one!!! Fortunately it only accounts for 10% of my Equity.

 

Meanwhile the eejit, Bailey, has printed nearly 25% of inflation since that date. This is not just an issue with pensions, it's all savings not keeping pace with inflation. Pensions have only mirrored the average performance elsewhere. 

 

I guess the culprits, the Government and the BOE must be loving this. Wealth is not absolute but how you compare to the rest of the population. The Government and the clown Bailey have every incentive to print the competition out of existence. Their pensions should be tied to the 2% target, wonder if then they would keep printing to placate those on bennies.

 

The biggest theft in history.They take tax to pay for government,but cannot cover a penny of welfare,so they monetise all that and take it from saved labour.Workers hate the scroungers,but they dont have a clue how bad it really is.Retired state worker pensions are like lottery wins,but they are grinding into the dirt younger workers,including in the public sector.One of the things i track is how much they need to take and it was a big factor into my model for inflation hitting 12% because with a lag in a falling productivity economy its pure destruction of living standards for everyone else.most on here should be up 50% to 120% in the same timeframe and hopefully can stay in front from here on in.

Gilt value destruction is probably bottoming out here,so pensions might return to 4%pa growth after fees (some with heavy bubble stock areas in the 40% might flatline),but that is still very poor.

Gilts are maybe a decent buy,but the reason i wouldnt is because there is a risk of wipe out on them,90% down in a month sort of thing.Its an outlier,but a risk,and id much rather be outside the UK in other assets.

[Harley]

31 minutes ago, Long-game said:

Indeed it's good to be financially literate and live comfortably, but life is too short to let it overcome your life and deny certain pleasure imho. No good living like one cut from the  old Presbyterian ethic 😊.

Been binge watching Alone.  Absolutely compulsive, so much to unpack, and takes me back to the various selections I underwent in my younger days.  Applies to everything in life, especially investing.  A real education in what it takes, if it's right for you, what your true values are, but also how we construct narratives to shield us from the truth/reality.  None of this is to address the sad post on the suicide but to your point.  In one episode a capable bloke got pulled on medical grounds due to lack of nutrition and all he could keep saying was how he had plenty of food (that he had preserved but not eaten!).  There were times when it really hurt and I could have bopped them for telling me it was all a mind game.  Eventually that's exactly what it became and why I got stronger as I got older.  The mind needs more training than any muscle and if it ain't hurting it ain't working, but be careful.  But break through and if it doesn't feck/kill you, it makes you stronger, although those that do are usually somewhat on that path already.  Watch and learn.

Regarding finance, all going well and according to plan with no surprises.

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

I don't want to throw this thread off subject, but last night I found out a good friend of mine that I've known since we were kids committed suicide over the weekend

Im struggling to believe its true, as he seemed one of the happiest guys I knew, The last person I would ever expect to do that which just shows how we don't know if someones struggling on the inside unless we talk more, but men mostly don't

I think life is becoming a struggle for alot people, most people want is a simple life with family and friends but it seems to get more complex and hard as we go on

 

We all need to focus more on our health especially our mental heath

 

 

 

 

 

 

Out of 7 of us who knocked about at school 3 killed themselves,one at 21,one at 38,one 43,i still now and again pop to the places we played as kids and think about them.

[Option5]

10 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

The ULEZ cameras are definitely going up more quickly than they're being taken down. They're very ugly and noticeable. The low height and angle is also suspicious. I suspect they can see who is driving the vehicle. At the very least enforcement photos will show the driver as well as the numberplate.

Business opportunity there.

Face masks of Sad Dick Khan't.

[Axeman123]

Newest MPC member at the BoE looks absolutely filthy IMO

Doesn't seem to be a ZIRP jihadi either

Quote

The newest member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting committee has warned higher interest rates may be here to stay.

Megan Greene, who joins the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) tomorrow, said it would be ‘a mistake’ for central bankers to think inflation and interest rates will ‘automatically go back to the low levels we saw before the pandemic.’

Writing in the Financial Times, Greene added it was ‘too early’ to say if rates could return to pre-pandemic levels, noting that investments in green technology and artificial intelligence could ‘generate a wave of innovation that boosts productivity’.

EDIT: Keep forgetting links lately

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12260299/Higher-rates-stay-says-rate-setting-committees-new-member.html

Edited July 4, 2023 by Axeman123

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Morning comrades!

 

well...well...WELL, that 'ol dog Macbeth another HIGH, got just over a grands profit now, thinking of selling AND using the moolah to visit DB & check out the HOT asian students!