Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 6)

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

In terms of Asia exposure i think you've said before you like Japan Tobacco, would you consider buying JT (although it's SP is up at present) instead of more BAT?

No,BAT are an evil machine and have much better Asian exposure than anyone else.They are evil selling baccy leaf to China from Bangladesh,getting around the no foreign fags in China thing.

[Pip321]

27 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

We see this headline and similar of late:

Banks pressed by MPs to make further rate hikes for savings customers

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/banks-pressed-mps-further-rate-103237922.html

...and that makes no sense as a government priority in the current shitshow. Banks need to build reserves ready to absorb losses, and this is usually done by expanding the margin between deposit and loan rates. Raising loan rates is obviously a very hot button right now, so why block banks only other approach?

You may say it is just boomer-cosseting electioneering. I think there is more to it though. It has been observed that boomer mortgage-free owner-occupiers are immune to rate-rises, and are driving a lot of inflation with their spending. They historically have a high-propensity to save in high-street savings accounts if the rates are attractive. Logically the way to shrink their spending is to entice them back to saving, by pushing banks to pay "attractive" (negative real) rates.

Maybe the plan for the banks is that with enough deposits reserves won't be as important, and the associated requirements can be fiddled with by regulators to extend and pretend.

I have been checking out rates and National Savings Bank is shite....someone should have a word with whoever the shareholders and directors of that bank are and ensure they also push rates up too.

Come on MPs lets find out who runs that NS&I bank and push them too.....what? you mean the government (represented by MPs) owns this bank. 

Remember guys everything is EVERYONE ELSE'S fault (supermarkets, farmers, nurses, train drivers, oil producers, banks, boomers living too long, over 55's retiring too early etc etc) and never the governments. 

They must think we are fucking retarded.....blaming inflation on Russia, high mortgages on banks, low savings on banks, oil prices on BP, food prices on Sainsbury's, poor rail service on train drivers. 

I think we need a new system where if a politician just does stuff to improve their own financial or political position rather than the countries....then we lock them up. 

Edited July 3, 2023 by Pip321

[No One]

On 01/07/2023 at 14:07, DurhamBorn said:

ISA divs are 100% tax free and dont count as income.Iv set up so i can take around £34k a year tax free across SIPP and ISA between 55 and 67.Im not married and never will be so i only have my own allowances,so the SIPP really matters,house will be direct to kids so thats roughly at the house allowance.ISAs are in inheritance tax ,SIPP 20% below LTA.Il have a big problem when my dad goes though,so we have set up a will trust and although its taxed at 40% on the income il pay it out to grandkids up to tax allowance levels so they can claim the tax back.Allowances been frozen are a nightmare.Il likely pass on a lot to the kids,but my worry is they might get divorced etc,.Mind you i could up sticks and have a mid life crisis and move to Thailand or something.

I have a trick for this, for once I can offer something in return for your not-financial-advise stock picks. This comes from a conversation I had with some mates during a pub quiz. 

Group of 5 including me sitting round a table discussing a friend and his young new GF, and his ex who had previously been married to another man, had not managed to get the house. 

To prevent their son from getting rinsed by the female, his parents loaned both of them money to buy the house. In the case of divorce, the debt outstanding on the house is still owed to the parents which she still has to pay, the son paying his parents is a round about way to keep the money in the family. 

Another case is that of some footballer in Morocco who gave all his income to his mother and his mother would buy him the things he wanted, house, lambo etc, but in her name. Since she is married to him and not his mother, no divorce settlement will allow the woman to take whats his. 

This is probably the very definition of an original version of the Trust. You have 100% trust is another party, which is not the spouse, to protect yourself from the spouse stealing your wealth via feminists divorce laws.

Edited July 3, 2023 by No One

[MrXxxx]

Interesting article on asset allocation and Modern Portfolio Theory [MPT a.k.a. Harry Markowitz theory]; bit 'wordy'/repetitive, but worth a read:

https://www.toolsformoney.com/portfolio_optimization.htm

[Long time lurking]

[sancho panza]

On 01/07/2023 at 14:31, DurhamBorn said:

I was just thinking today,i think we can consider France in systemic collapse now,thanks to mass immigration and crap polos.Might get very interesting.

I've been following the newsflow from France on Twitter and the riots look really,really serious.It's worth noting that you have to go to the very bottom of the Daily Mail's news homepage to find the following headline.(It's bottom of homepage stuff at the Guardian as well,although that's less of a surprise).

'Paris protests spread to Switzerland and Belgium but streets of France are eerily quiet: Emmanuel Macron holds crisis talks to assess the situation after teen's 'execution' during traffic stop fuels five days of widespread unrest'

From CBS-a more relaistic assessment

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/france-riots-2023-protests-police-fatal-shooting-teen-nahel-nanterre/

'Paris — Protests rocked France over the weekend as unrest sparked by the fatal shooting last week of an unarmed 17-year-old boy by police in a Paris suburb continued. It was quieter Sunday night, but more than 3,300 people have been arrested, over 1,000 buildings damaged and some 700 police officers injured in rioting since the fatal encounter on June 27.

French officials said 157 more people were arrested overnight, but that was a significant drop from the more than 700 arrests reported the previous evening amid violent clashes between police and protesters across the country.  '

 

 

 

As I've said variously down here over the years,the UK police are undermanned and poorly led for the sort of dislocations that are occuring or have occurred in France.UK Cities of 300,000 with 15 coppers protecting them.

My thesis is that these riots will pass but we are heading to a more serious social idslocation down the line.Currently,the bennies tap is still flowing.I see the situation getting worse when the moeny gets tighter.

So Im interested in whether you think this set of riots was a result of social issues or whether you think economcis is starting to drive these events?I don't have any macro road mapping experience or understanding aside from what I read on here.

To what extent do you think deterioration in the macro will make things worse?

No pressure DB,but we hevan't had much discussion down here ref the French and they look lik eht first place gettign a taste of whats coming.

On 01/07/2023 at 16:37, DurhamBorn said:

Only us in the basement know that bennies are the cause,them and pensions.It really is macro suicide to inflation link all the none producing when we need to consume much less to have any hope.My son works for Aldi in the warehouse,they are very close to not being able to get orders out through lack of staff,3 more left last week,said they didnt want to work 10 hour shifts,they just wanted the 5 hours basic as it cut "their bennies",.My worry isnt that this collapses,that is almost certain,its that they try to tax more and more to keep it going a bit longer.It is going to be very interesting seeing a new Labour government skint from day one.A wrong move ad the gilt market will collapse.

Saw a lass I know from the play groups where we live.Her hubby has split with her but she's staying in the family home which comes with his job.

She has four kids and is looking for social hosuing.

ANyway,point is that instead of them living off his salary,she's now getting £1300pcm in bennies.When she gets HB she'll be on circa £2000pcm.Ref the £1300pcm she said,and I quote,'it's not very much is it?'

Now she's in a crap situation but she seems oblivious to the fact that it'll be taking the tax from 6 median income earners to support her when she gets a house.(currently hubby paying nothing)

I came in and told Mrs P and she asked me to stop telling here as it's too derpessing.She's been toying with the idea of moving to 4 days a week to get promoted for which she'll be paying 40% across the whole days pay....she's rapidly going off the idea as she comes more in line with basement thesis.

I can see why 40% taxpeyers are giving up the ghost.and I can't blame the kids at your lads workplace but it likely brings the collapse closer.Gonna be a rough year

Median wage circa £32k

On 02/07/2023 at 09:12, Pip321 said:

My Inlaw’s run a brand new car, change it every few years and have a free bus pass, which they use several times a week to save petrol money and parking. If the line is bus passes why not free council tax, water rates, phones, food with a cut off based on age and NI contributions.

We are seeing a significant shift of wealth in generations and as I say in the snowflake world of entitlement I am surprised we have not seen an legitimate ‘age discrimination’ challenge from the younger generation.

I think the reality is I can spot a problem….I am not so sure I can think of an easy solution. So I will just focus on legitimately paying as little into the pot as I can. 

I agree with you Pip.See loads of people who don't need the help getting winter fuel allowance while working age families are struggling.

There's no such thing as a' free ' bus pass by the way.The local council gets a bill of the bus companies for each ride.When getting into Leicester from where we are is currently capped at£2( till Jun 23) per adult,used to be circa £4.50 iirc.ANyway two of us plus 3 kids currently £7 used to be circa £15.75

It's a bit of a chicken and egg situation-what came first the 'free' bus pass or buses being predominantly used by the over 65s?

When you inlcude social care costs(a friends Mum who had a £750k hosue but was on the scoial had her £2k pcm care costs covered by Leicester council),'free' council tax discounts,'free' bus,'free' NHS prescriptions,'free' TV licneces etc etc etc,it's hard not to see it as a direct tax on age.I think at the moment working age people aren't suffering enough but I think they're going get pretty angry about this stuff going forwards when thigns get hard

 

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, Axeman123 said:

Pedantic to say but that is institutional capture, not decay. You could argue that unstitutional capture wouldn't be possible if the institutional culture hadn't already decayed, but I still see a distinction.

The whole point of woke/inclusion etc seems to be as a trojan horse to get placemen ready to radically reorient organisations, as has happened with RNLI.

The Browns 100 yearr government ended, after 2 years, all the Browinites were pushed in the public sector and the 3rd sector, to store them for the Messiahs return.

100s of gomrless fuckwits.

This is why theres so much fuckwittery.

RNLI, look at you find a Brownite.

NHS fuckups? Stuffed full.

 

[Kendo]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats cross market right there.I noticed in Durham Asian students everywhere as huge intake to uni and the difference.Smart,slim,clever,then the UK bennie lot in their grey leggings and joggers.Its clear who has the rising culture and who has the collapsing one.Korea looks superb for investing to me,small enough so their cities can go all tech as well.

Did you know there is a K-pop ETF - kpopetf.com 

It launched in August last year but listed on NYSE. 

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Nice visual here:

A good visual gets you thinking. What it makes me think is:

- Oil is single use only. Once it's used, it's gone. all the others have a recycling component.

- All the other commodities require crude oil to be extracted. They are dependent on and tied to oil, like the moons around Jupiter.

- The world needs to find 2.1 trillion dollars every year to pay for oil. If they don't, their country rapidly collapses (Sri Lanka for a recent example). They will sell anything to get the dollars for oil in a crunch: gold reseves, national infrastructure, people's futures (via tax or inflation).

- The US deficit is exporting enough dollars at current prices to facilitate this trade, but it needs the dollar recipients (mostly OPEC) to buy US Treasuries in return (essentially the petrodollar deal with Saudi).

- If oil price rises say 2x to $140, and the crude oil market becomes $4.2 trillion, there will be a scramble for dollars to pay for it, and a paradoxical selling of US treasury holdings to get the dollars from the Fed. This started happening last year, eg in Japan, and I think this is why they started dumping the SPR: to protect the treasury market. But as said, oil is 'use once' commodity. They may as well have burned gold in Fort Knox.

- The alternative is to not have to pay for the oil in dollars, and the first moves to this have been well discussed. I think any move away from the dollar will have to have trade balances cleared in gold.

- You could back the oil market with gold if gold was 11x the current price, at current oil prices.

- India's oil demand has risen by 1mbpd yoy, to speak to @DurhamBorns point on Asia. It has a long way to go. 

I think almost everything macro we are trying to figure out here is tied into the above somehow. DB's roadmap of EMs particularly in Asia outgrowing the West mirrors the flow of oil east. They will easily be able to outbid the West if deficit nations printing money are rejected in favour of harder currencies based on commodity production and countries with budget surpluses. Net Zero bollocks fits in too, there are no better cards for western elites to play. It all comes back to energy IMO.

 

Super find there CP.

Is it also owrht considering how production might decline into this period of rising prices? from what youve dsaid before,the 2008 spike was on percieved 2% supply deficit.

if currentn equilibrium is 100mbpd and we see demand move to 103mbpd at$75 but then we see production down to 98mbpd,means we'll see equilbrium at 98mbpd and rpices well north of $75 surely?

I think the outlook for oil is super bullish going out more than a year

Commericals looking like they're postioning for a rise

decl;:long oilies

Edited July 3, 2023 by sancho panza

[snaga]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

meanwhile at Tesla -

[Cattle Prod]

11 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Super find there CP.

Is it also owrht considering how production might decline into this period of rising prices? from what youve dsaid before,the 2008 spike was on percieved 2% supply deficit.

if currentn equilibrium is 100mbpd and we see demand move to 103mbpd at$75 but then we see production down to 98mbpd,means we'll see equilbrium at 98mbpd and rpices well north of $75 surely?

I think the outlook for oil is super bullish going out more than a year

Commericals looking like they're postioning for a rise

decl;:long oilies

Yes I fully agree SP. Short term, market is still obsessing about demand, probably missing the likes of India growing consumption by 1 mbpd yoy. You can't see India from a Wall Street office window. That's far more than the UKs entire north sea production. In one year. Any paper driven selloff is a buying opportunity IMO, and thanks for pointing out the COT, I hadn't noticed that. I've also been buying US natural gas producers too, they sell their product far too cheaply. When the arb closes it's all profit for them as they are currently cash flow positive. 

[DoINeedOne]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

I've been following the newsflow from France on Twitter and the riots look really,really serious.It's worth noting that you have to go to the very bottom of the Daily Mail's news homepage to find the following headline.(It's bottom of homepage stuff at the Guardian as well,although that's less of a surprise).

'Paris protests spread to Switzerland and Belgium but streets of France are eerily quiet: Emmanuel Macron holds crisis talks to assess the situation after teen's 'execution' during traffic stop fuels five days of widespread unrest'

From CBS-a more relaistic assessment

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/france-riots-2023-protests-police-fatal-shooting-teen-nahel-nanterre/

'Paris — Protests rocked France over the weekend as unrest sparked by the fatal shooting last week of an unarmed 17-year-old boy by police in a Paris suburb continued. It was quieter Sunday night, but more than 3,300 people have been arrested, over 1,000 buildings damaged and some 700 police officers injured in rioting since the fatal encounter on June 27.

French officials said 157 more people were arrested overnight, but that was a significant drop from the more than 700 arrests reported the previous evening amid violent clashes between police and protesters across the country.  '

 

 

 

As I've said variously down here over the years,the UK police are undermanned and poorly led for the sort of dislocations that are occuring or have occurred in France.UK Cities of 300,000 with 15 coppers protecting them.

My thesis is that these riots will pass but we are heading to a more serious social idslocation down the line.Currently,the bennies tap is still flowing.I see the situation getting worse when the moeny gets tighter.

So Im interested in whether you think this set of riots was a result of social issues or whether you think economcis is starting to drive these events?I don't have any macro road mapping experience or understanding aside from what I read on here.

To what extent do you think deterioration in the macro will make things worse?

No pressure DB,but we hevan't had much discussion down here ref the French and they look lik eht first place gettign a taste of whats coming.

Saw a lass I know from the play groups where we live.Her hubby has split with her but she's staying in the family home which comes with his job.

She has four kids and is looking for social hosuing.

ANyway,point is that instead of them living off his salary,she's now getting £1300pcm in bennies.When she gets HB she'll be on circa £2000pcm.Ref the £1300pcm she said,and I quote,'it's not very much is it?'

Now she's in a crap situation but she seems oblivious to the fact that it'll be taking the tax from 6 median income earners to support her when she gets a house.(currently hubby paying nothing)

I came in and told Mrs P and she asked me to stop telling here as it's too derpessing.She's been toying with the idea of moving to 4 days a week to get promoted for which she'll be paying 40% across the whole days pay....she's rapidly going off the idea as she comes more in line with basement thesis.

I can see why 40% taxpeyers are giving up the ghost.and I can't blame the kids at your lads workplace but it likely brings the collapse closer.Gonna be a rough year

Median wage circa £32k

I agree with you Pip.See loads of people who don't need the help getting winter fuel allowance while working age families are struggling.

There's no such thing as a' free ' bus pass by the way.The local council gets a bill of the bus companies for each ride.When getting into Leicester from where we are is currently capped at£2( till Jun 23) per adult,used to be circa £4.50 iirc.ANyway two of us plus 3 kids currently £7 used to be circa £15.75

It's a bit of a chicken and egg situation-what came first the 'free' bus pass or buses being predominantly used by the over 65s?

When you inlcude social care costs(a friends Mum who had a £750k hosue but was on the scoial had her £2k pcm care costs covered by Leicester council),'free' council tax discounts,'free' bus,'free' NHS prescriptions,'free' TV licneces etc etc etc,it's hard not to see it as a direct tax on age.I think at the moment working age people aren't suffering enough but I think they're going get pretty angry about this stuff going forwards when thigns get hard

 

 

 

The riots are mental, but interesting is most of the videos seem to be young men immigrants or not, I do think we have alot issues with young men, I think alot men feel quite lost currently not much work, everyone online seems more successful than you

Not that that is an excuse, Jordan Peterson talks alot about how dangerous young men can become if they don't have status and worth along with the herd mentality of smashing shit up, I noticed most holding there phones up to record it all probably for the likes and look at me

 

I see it in my youngest nephew kicked out of school not been at school for a year or two, he's a great kid but follows the crowd and is angry because his not achieving compared to the likes some of these youtube stars etc....

 

My partner said most of the kids in her primary school class when asked about careers said around 80% want to be influencers on social media which I find quite sad really

 

I always said I would hate to be a teenager in the age of the internet, when i was a kid i had a small group of friends to compare myself too one was fat, one was full of acne, one was almost a midget, one was in great shape (bastard) etc etc... but now I can even imagine 

 

As for Mrs P, It does get annoying hearing these stories especially when your working hard trying to progress forward which maybe is like above we are getting angry because of they get this and that and I don't 

 

I always remember a friend of mine, Ive told this story before he worked hard came home after a hard days work around 6pm in time for dinner and to put the kids to bed

He said every night I wash up, the new build townhouse opposite me, same as the one Im paying a mortgage on lives a single mum with a few kids, she has a newer car than me, she gets takeaways most nights as i see them delivering when washing up and does not work, what am I doing wrong, why do I bother

 

For me the past month Ive been testing a few ideas outlaid some money, not even broken even yet working on some costs but its the same neighbour next door has a kid who's not been at school for 2 years has issues crying and screaming everyday, she smokes in the garden all day to mostly ignore the kid, she gets McDonalds delivered most days - Probably the kids issue he need nutrition

 

Then across the road is a Cafe all the non working school mums sit there after dropping the kids off to the school my partner works at getting nearly the same or more in benefits than my partner does in wages for dealing with the kids all day

3 hours a day roughly they all sit at the cafe smoking, laughing, joking 

 

See comparing and getting angry they are having fun, Im trying to work out how to get costs down on this little project to see if there's a little business there

Anyway doubt that answered anything Im rambling ranting but as @DurhamBorn mentions alot with benefits people start to wonder what's the fucking point

 

 

Edited July 3, 2023 by DoINeedOne

[working woman]

Thank you DB for your updated thoughts and figures on EMs.

I would say when investing in Asia, take the prevailing religion/work ethic/social security system of the country into account.

Re Malaysia - We have been to Malaysia twice, went earlier this year, a fantastic country and very interesting.

A former British colony, where the population is a mix of Indian, Chinese and Malay and hence a mix of religions.

Chatting to a tax i driver, I asked what help people got if unemployed. He said there was no social security system like ours.

I asked about health care, he said employers pays for your costs such as visits to the Doctors and Hospitals. 

So it sounds like if you don't work, you are stuck.  So a strong work ethic there out of necessity.

I kept v quiet about what goes on in our country.

I saw a lot of very hard working and intelligent people there. They obviously needed to work as there was no state help.

They were all very honest people. No messing around with dodgy cab drivers ripping you off.

There is a real cultural and religious mix there.

However, we took a tour of the old mosque in Kuala Lumpur and interestingly, there were dozens of young Muslim men asleep on the floor in the prayer halls and gardens. Why weren't they out at work? Maybe students.

The Muslim women we met were lovely and hard working.

Malaysia also has oil.  I had a walk around the twin Petronas Towers.

I would invest in Malaysia as it wants to be a very modern country. It already is in so many ways.

Re South Korea - I have mentioned before I worked for one of the big 4 companies in their office in London 20 years ago.

The SK Govt, put money into these businesses to make them grow. Not sure how/if you can invest in them.

Of the 4 Samsung took the best path as they invested in the semi-conductor business.

Very hard working and intelligent people who strive to be modern. My bosses wives  dressed in a "Quaint English  Style" Think an oriental version of Miss Marple with bucket style sun hats. Very odd.  A few of my bosses had gambling and drink addictions to cope with the long hours. They were all required to work in the office Saturday morning and play golf together in the afternoon and only had Sunday off.  They are Team Players, no time for disruptive Individualism in the work place.

Re K Pop Bands - waiting for our flight home in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, hundreds of teenage girls ran screaming through the airport. I thought a gun man was on the loose. I asked someone what was going on and it turned out a popular K Pop band was visiting Malaysia and was due to arrive at the airport in a short while. Sadly my flight left before they got there so I never got to see them, but it was like how girls acted when they saw the Beatles. Pure Hysteria. 

 

Edited July 3, 2023 by working woman

[sancho panza]

36 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yes I fully agree SP. Short term, market is still obsessing about demand, probably missing the likes of India growing consumption by 1 mbpd yoy. You can't see India from a Wall Street office window. That's far more than the UKs entire north sea production. In one year. Any paper driven selloff is a buying opportunity IMO, and thanks for pointing out the COT, I hadn't noticed that. I've also been buying US natural gas producers too, they sell their product far too cheaply. When the arb closes it's all profit for them as they are currently cash flow positive. 

https://qz.com/indias-petroleum-consumption-broke-all-records-in-2022-1850322200

India's petroleum consumption broke all records in 2022-23

Demand for fuel is deemed a proxy for manufacturing activity

By

Mimansa Verma

PublishedApril 11, 2023

 

Indians are using more diesel, petrol, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) than ever.

In the financial year that ended in March 2023, India consumed 222.30 million tonnes of petroleum products, up 10.2% from the previous year, according to the latest oil ministry data. This is the highest-ever in the history of the world’s third-largest oil consumer.

India’s increasing demand for crude oil

India imports more than 85% of its crude oil requirements, and oil demand is only expected to rise in the coming years. Paris-based International Energy Agency has projected it to increase from 4.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 6.7 million bpd by 2030.

[Long time lurking]

@Stuey hows that 1% before 6% looking 

If the ten year hits that we are well and truly fucked 

 

 

Edited July 3, 2023 by Long time lurking

[Cattle Prod]

7 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

https://qz.com/indias-petroleum-consumption-broke-all-records-in-2022-1850322200

India's petroleum consumption broke all records in 2022-23

Demand for fuel is deemed a proxy for manufacturing activity

By

Mimansa Verma

PublishedApril 11, 2023

 

Indians are using more diesel, petrol, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) than ever.

In the financial year that ended in March 2023, India consumed 222.30 million tonnes of petroleum products, up 10.2% from the previous year, according to the latest oil ministry data. This is the highest-ever in the history of the world’s third-largest oil consumer.

India’s increasing demand for crude oil

India imports more than 85% of its crude oil requirements, and oil demand is only expected to rise in the coming years. Paris-based International Energy Agency has projected it to increase from 4.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to 6.7 million bpd by 2030.

This supports the idea that oil demand will quickly fill whatever the market can supply. India has without reservation been taking advantage of a large discount on Russian oil. For India, with the market mostly to itself, there is a supply glut of sorts, and demand has quickly met it. So any dip in prices fuels demand beacuse you get so much from it from your money. The thing is, demand doesn't go back down. The trend has been linear for decades, and even covid interruptions were a blip. Once people get used to it, they will reluctantly give it up, and only a little bit. 

So what happens when supply stops growing? I suspect the market will quickly assign a value to it more akin to the work it does for us humans.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, No One said:

I have a trick for this, for once I can offer something in return for your not-financial-advise stock picks. This comes from a conversation I had with some mates during a pub quiz. 

Group of 5 including me sitting round a table discussing a friend and his young new GF, and his ex who had previously been married to another man, had not managed to get the house. 

To prevent their son from getting rinsed by the female, his parents loaned both of them money to buy the house. In the case of divorce, the debt outstanding on the house is still owed to the parents which she still has to pay, the son paying his parents is a round about way to keep the money in the family. 

Another case is that of some footballer in Morocco who gave all his income to his mother and his mother would buy him the things he wanted, house, lambo etc, but in her name. Since she is married to him and not his mother, no divorce settlement will allow the woman to take whats his. 

This is probably the very definition of an original version of the Trust. You have 100% trust is another party, which is not the spouse, to protect yourself from the spouse stealing your wealth via feminists divorce laws.

Old Durhamborn saying "you can walk out of Fighting Cocks every weekend with a new squeeze,but you will never walk out with half a lifetimes earnings,women are easy to replace,capital is not,love and marry your capital,not a woman"

[Stuey]

6 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

@Stuey hows that 1% before 6% looking 

 

 

Brb...going buying some more gilts 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Stuey said:

Brb...going buying some more gilts 

You're not though are you

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

This supports the idea that oil demand will quickly fill whatever the market can supply. India has without reservation been taking advantage of a large discount on Russian oil. For India, with the market mostly to itself, there is a supply glut of sorts, and demand has quickly met it. So any dip in prices fuels demand beacuse you get so much from it from your money. The thing is, demand doesn't go back down. The trend has been linear for decades, and even covid interruptions were a blip. Once people get used to it, they will reluctantly give it up, and only a little bit. 

So what happens when supply stops growing? I suspect the market will quickly assign a value to it more akin to the work it does for us humans.

It destroys western welfare systems and turns them to dust.Once oil production tops then ALL consumption will need to be paid for in something that can equal the store of value of the energy.That energy will be slowly becoming worth more,so whatever is being used to pay for it needs to be slowly being worth more.It means western economies without their own energy security wont be able to print anything at all.It also means,like i keep rabbiting on about,you wont be able to carry none productive anymore.15 minute cities etc are coming,we have no choice and there will be massive changes.The UK is already in this,but hardly anyone understands it.We are consuming pension wealth (gilts falling),next housing wealth etc.Its being consumed because we are around 26% under producing but consuming energy produced goods.

 

[Jay]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Interesting article on asset allocation and Modern Portfolio Theory [MPT a.k.a. Harry Markowitz theory]; bit 'wordy'/repetitive, but worth a read:

https://www.toolsformoney.com/portfolio_optimization.htm

Who recently died aged 92 I think..maybe having a portfolio increases life expectancy..

[Sue Lowe]

1 hour ago, working woman said:

Re Malaysia - We have been to Malaysia twice, went earlier this year, a fantastic country and very interesting.

 

Agree that Malaysia is a fantastic country having spent some time there a few years back, but they've been practicing "positive" discrimination and affirmative action for years including everything from discounted real estate to special investment terms for (the mainly muslim) favoured groups https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bumiputera_(Malaysia)

[Loki]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

15 minute cities etc are coming,we have no choice and there will be massive changes.

Not really macro but you're into healthy eating etc, what do you think about the eco-loons war on meat?

[Long time lurking]

21 minutes ago, Loki said:

Not really macro but you're into healthy eating etc, what do you think about the eco-loons war on meat?

It`s all a psyop and 15 minute cites are all about money ,it`s another fucking tax grab 

The new ULEZ in London is taking an hammering from a few guys going under the name of ULEZ blade runners ,they posted a video the other day with a lockup full of cameras at £2 k a pop some are being put up in the morning and they are gone by the afternoon ,they are even nicking the surveillance cameras put up to trying and catch them,they said no one try's to stop them they just cheer them on  

But the real danger comes from opposition parties pledging to get rid of them,(see Cambridge) no one wants to step off the Gravy train 

As for the eco shit watch Holland ,it will be run by farmers soon,they have a foot hold already and it`s gained huge support  

[janch]

1 hour ago, working woman said:

Re Malaysia - We have been to Malaysia twice, went earlier this year, a fantastic country and very interesting.

I lived in Malaya (as it was then) for 2 plus years as a very young child but I remember some of it vividly.  I was an army brat and my parents had a brilliant ex-pat life while we were there.

The thing which impressed me most about the people as I think back was how they all worked really hard but also all got on really well so integration had really worked in that society.  There seemed to be roughtly one third Chinese, one third Indian, one third native Malay.  The different nationalities tended to specialise eg Chinese were be tailors/shopkeepers more than the other nationalities.  Some people were dirt poor but as far as I remember they were always cheerful.

The best place to go if you do go over there is Penang which is fantastic and when I listened to a recent R4 programme has hardly changed in the intervening years with amazing temples/old colonial houses and a funicular railway to the top of Penang Hill where if I remember accurately there was a rather good childrens' playground!