Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 2)

[HousePriceMania]

17 minutes ago, spygirl said:

BBC says- You lazy white cunts.

'My journey from racist abuse at the tills to property tycoon'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68203736

 

A colleague, who knew he was entrepreneurial, gave him a book that would have a lasting impact on him. Rich Dad, Poor Dad by Robert T Kiyosaki advocates investing in assets like real estate to get ahead in society.

Inspired, after graduating from university, he began investing in the UK property market, buying and selling flats off-plan from developers (before they were built).

Although he took a hit during the 2008 financial crisis, by 2013 he had made enough money to found his Rehoboth Property Group business.

 

https://suite.endole.co.uk/insight/people/24213858-mr-sanmi-adegoke

Oldest LtdCO is 2018.

You want to hover your mouse over the name to see assets/liabilties

Then you might want to apply much higher IRs and much lower asset prices.

All his properdee development is in the shitholes part of London.

I reckon hes several million in the shitter at the mo.

 

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/officers/Y7VhpaAT53M2IxqNR31CEtWpyb4/appointments

CHarges are held by a number of high charging non banks/fincos and various other Nigerians.

TyCoon.  Bit racist mate.

[HousePriceMania]

February, house prices rise despite bubble prices and interest rate rises...

But enough of 2007.

 

Edited February 7 by HousePriceMania

[onlyme]

12 hours ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

I've got my eye out for a place to rent, still seems completely mental to me, in fact even more so than a couple of years ago last time I was looking and prices have gone up at least 20% since then.

There's almost nothing available, and if something comes on agents don't bother taking phone calls because they just get inundated - some of them have a system set up that if you call it texts you a link to a credit check you have to complete before they will consider showing you a place, then they don't get back to you anyway, can't blame them as they must be getting many dozens of enquiries for each property.

Rents certainly did go up for while, it will take time for rentals to turn over and renters to reassess affordability and right size their outgoings, job lossess are increasing pretty repidly now and the jobs market is deteriorating rapidly (relative looking for admin level replacement job after redundancy facing 100 applicant hurdle). Any government that continues to import bodies that it intends to put on  taxpayer benefits or undercut existing jobs is going to get eviscerated what is coming down the pipe. Hang onto your job and hang in there.

Net borrowing last year for house purchase was £1bn, lowest on record.

Nothing is going to stop what is coming down the tracks.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, onlyme said:

Rents certainly did go up for while, it will take time for rentals to turn over and renters to reassess affordability and right size their outgoings, job lossess are increasing pretty repidly now and the jobs market is deteriorating rapidly (relative looking for admin level replacement job after redundancy facing 100 applicant hurdle). Any government that continues to import bodies that it intends to put on  taxpayer benefits or undercut existing jobs is going to get eviscerated what is coming down the pipe. Hang onto your job and hang in there.

Net borrowing last year for house purchase was £1bn, lowest on record.

Nothing is going to stop what is coming down the tracks.

have you got a link for the net borrowing figure OM?

on rents,my local search has gone from 57 to 63.this one is priced to go.would have been £1500pcm last year

 

 

on naother matter Sashas covers UK govt minister being unable to stay a minsiter as his mrotgage went from £800 to £2000pcm.cant manage on £118k per annum which is £6k pcm

now retiring to jsut be na MP part time and make some cash elsewhere.

good rant from sasha.

 

Edited February 7 by sancho panza

[onlyme]

6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

have you got a link for the net borrowing figure OM?

on rents,my local search has gone from 57 to 63.this one is priced to go.would have been £1500pcm last year

 

 

on naother matter Sashas covers UK govt minister being unable to stay a minsiter as his mrotgage went from £800 to £2000pcm.cant manage on £118k per annum which is £6k pcm

now retiring to jsut be na MP part time and make some cash elsewhere.

good rant from sasha.

 

 

Net mortgage borrowing was from last nights podcast (Charlie and Stig). Stig should get his figures right. Inference is it was only downsizers cashing out that provided any bouyancy in prices or stopped them falling more.

40mins in.

 

 

Edited February 7 by onlyme

[Castlevania]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

UK housebuilder Barratt said it had agreed an all-share takeover of rival Redrow valuing the latter at £2.5bn.

Under the terms of the deal Redrow investors will receive 1.44 new Barratt shares for their own stock which would leave them with 32.8% of the combined group and Barratt shareholders with the remainder.

The terms also imply a premium of 27.2% to the closing price per Redrow Share of 600p on February 6.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/b/barratt-developments-plc-ordinary-10p/share-news

Barratt also cut their interim dividend by 57%

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

have you got a link for the net borrowing figure OM?

on rents,my local search has gone from 57 to 63.this one is priced to go.would have been £1500pcm last year

 

 

SP, couldn't find a similar place to buy in that area but I am guessing that would be listed for sale at the mo for £400K+ ?

So double the rental price to buy.

 

[onlyme]

Still think Canada is going to be ground zero of the biggest crash, their market has been a racket for years. Bank corruption never went away.

 

[darkmarket]

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dominoes-us-cre-downturn-sends-german-lender-turmoil

With NYCB assuring markets that retail deposits are steady, and sell recommendations introducing EU contagion already, below is a relevant note from S&P on European bank exposure from 08/2023:

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/european-banks-get-deeper-into-us-commercial-property-as-worries-mount-77045569

Quote

"There's been a big inflection in multifamily in the last five years," said Whalen. "It's gone from being a sought-after, no-brainer kind of asset to an asset that you have to be very aware of price and risk — it's a huge change."

 

Quote

Santander had the largest exposure to US multifamily among European banks in the second quarter at more than $10.85 billion, or almost 60% of its total US CRE exposure

 

Quote

In comments to Market Intelligence, Santander said that almost 70% of its CRE exposure in the US is multifamily, including construction loans and Deutsche Bank said 50% of its €33 billion in CRE exposure as of March 31 was in the US. HSBC declined to comment.

NYCB now apparently acknowledging that it has a problem due to multi-family:

Quote

*NYCB: CRE CONCENTRATION WITHOUT MULTI-FAMILY IS 'REASONABLE'

 

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, onlyme said:

Net mortgage borrowing was from last nights podcast (Charlie and Stig). Stig should get his figures right. Inference is it was only downsizers cashing out that provided any bouyancy in prices or stopped them falling more.

40mins in.

 

 

Yeah that fits with teh value of otustanding mortgage data

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/mortgage-lenders-and-administrators/2023/2023-q3

Published on 12 December 2023

Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics: 2023 Q3

Key findings

• The outstanding value of all residential mortgage loans decreased by 0.1% from the previous quarter to £1,654.3 billion, and was 0.8% lower than a year earlier (Table A).¹

some interesting UK finance forecasts

https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/news-and-insight/press-release/mortgage-lending-fall-in-2024

Edited February 7 by sancho panza

[spygirl]

3 hours ago, onlyme said:

Net mortgage borrowing was from last nights podcast (Charlie and Stig). Stig should get his figures right. Inference is it was only downsizers cashing out that provided any bouyancy in prices or stopped them falling more.

40mins in.

 

 

The 40in bit.

They are right at calling out lowest ever transactions.

The transaction number have never been seen since .... ever.

They are also going on about affect of downsizing.

Again. I called this earlier, but different - there is no housing market in a lot of place, just a probate market.

They mention downsizer outcompeting FTBs.

Possibly so in London ,where i think they are based.

Get out of London and .... downsizers have noone to sell to

 

[spygirl]

14 minutes ago, spygirl said:

The 40in bit.

They are right at calling out lowest ever transactions.

The transaction number have never been seen since .... ever.

They are also going on about affect of downsizing.

Again. I called this earlier, but different - there is no housing market in a lot of place, just a probate market.

They mention downsizer outcompeting FTBs.

Possibly so in London ,where i think they are based.

Get out of London and .... downsizers have noone to sell to

 

Its entirely possible that the low transaction and zero lining of net mortgage lending is people with IO mortgages cashing out and taking the equity and buying cheaper places.

London/SE was 90%+ IO mortgages from ~2000ish to MMR -2.

London/SE is one of  the few areas where theres enough equity - at the mo - to do this.

 

 

 

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, darkmarket said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dominoes-us-cre-downturn-sends-german-lender-turmoil

With NYCB assuring markets that retail deposits are steady, and sell recommendations introducing EU contagion already, below is a relevant note from S&P on European bank exposure from 08/2023:

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/european-banks-get-deeper-into-us-commercial-property-as-worries-mount-77045569

 

 

NYCB now apparently acknowledging that it has a problem due to multi-family:

 

What’s “multi family”?

[Frank Hovis]

3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

What’s “multi family”?

 

Buying a whole block of flats, and then having multiple families renting from you within one building.

As opposed to the standard BTL of a house.

[Castlevania]

1 minute ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Buying a whole block of flats, and then having multiple families renting from you within one building.

As opposed to the standard BTL of a house.

That counts as commercial real estate?

[Frank Hovis]

4 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

That counts as commercial real estate?

Pass.

It's a US term.

[Axeman123]

10 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

That counts as commercial real estate?

It can be hundreds of units in some cases.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

That counts as commercial real estate?

I theink CRE is genreally defined not only by the type of building but also the type of laon underpinning/.

in other news,nice hcart from UK finance hosuehold Dec 23 report

interesting to see new loans dropping,also hosuehold cash saivngs.credity card debt going up,deposti to income ratio also interesting

https://www.ukfinance.org.uk/system/files/2023-12/Household Finance Review 2023 Q3.pdf

Mortgage lending for house purchase continued to
fall sharply through the third quarter. Lending to both
first time buyers and home movers has now fallen,
year on year, in every month since December 2022.
Although the rate of decline moderated through the
third quarter, first-time buyer (FTB) activity was still
down almost one fifth, and movers by one quarter,
compared with Q3 last year (Chart 5).
Mortgage borrowing capacity is currently constrained
on multiple fronts. Since the country emerged from
the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) a decade ago, house
prices have consistently - and significantly - outpaced
wage growth. Prices peaked at a little over nine
times earnings last year, up from around seven times
income a decade ago.

The significant contraction in lending this year has been
widespread with few, if any, areas of new lending seeing growth.
However, looking within the overall figures we can see some
areas of particular weakness, which speak to the affordability
constraints facing borrowers and where these are biting most
severely.
Perhaps surprisingly, given the drivers of weakness, first-time
buyer numbers have not been hit disproportionately hard. In the
year to date, FTB activity is currently 22 per cent down compared
with the first nine months of 2022, slightly less in fact than the
26 per cent decline in homemover numbers. Even amongst
younger FTBs, who might be expected to be more sensitive to
affordability-related pressures, numbers have fallen by slightly less
than the wider house purchase market (Chart 6).

In Q3 we continued to see a decumulation of household
deposits held with retail banks. Overall, deposit levels at
the end of the quarter were some three per cent below
those seen a year ago (Chart 9). This represents a further
acceleration on the two per cent annual contraction in
deposit levels seen in Q2, as households continue to run
down their savings to cover higher household costs.

[Axeman123]

Mindblowing context for the scale of Fentanyl deaths in the US, raising the question of: how far along is the collapse of the US?

 

[onlyme]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Perhaps surprisingly, given the drivers of weakness, first-time
buyer numbers have not been hit disproportionately hard. In the
year to date, FTB activity is currently 22 per cent down compared
with the first nine months of 2022, slightly less in fact than the
26 per cent decline in homemover numbers. Even amongst
younger FTBs, who might be expected to be more sensitive to
affordability-related pressures, numbers have fallen by slightly less
than the wider house purchase market (Chart 6).

 

All that is happening maybe is that all the proceedale, affluent, high deposit / gifted sum buyers are clearing through the market as acceptable properties come up at a price they are willing to pay, given the age breakdown there are some FTB;s out there who have been waiting years, or deacde even to buy, doesn't mean there is follow through in oncoming years. 

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, onlyme said:

All that is happening maybe is that all the proceedale, affluent, high deposit / gifted sum buyers are clearing through the market as acceptable properties come up at a price they are willing to pay, given the age breakdown there are some FTB;s out there who have been waiting years, or deacde even to buy, doesn't mean there is follow through in oncoming years. 

I think the whole banking system is massively overleveraged.

the strenght of FTbers in this market is surprising but then again,as you say,many willing to buy the first dip they see.so maybe not.

euqity swappers are jsut that really,no new moeny coming in

top end has shown the way the market going longer term.this dip will be followed by naotehr.if the analysis of various bank balance sheets is anything to go by

[Phil]

Seen this house December, offer in , accepted just before Xmas. Probate, needs lots doing. Letter asking to come in to complete Saturday. Called solicitor, said , ask em to knock 9k off and no problem, we’ll do it this week

( needs to be after 5th April, interest needed) 

Seller - email today, it’s the price, we want to complete asap.

me - 8th April, complete, pay get keys.

it doesn’t help my plans when the wank msm publish headlines about hpi being +3.5k.

I met the executives on Saturday, they had the key ( the original estate agent has been bought out by the estate agent we are currently renting from, early January,  and I didn’t want the agent asking questions so they arranged for the executive to give me access) as I wanted to check on something .Male executive was an old cunt who kept telling me how much that house over there went for, that next door but 2 is up for , the one on the corner… blah …blah.

I bit my lip thinking you’re fuckin such a covid cunt and you need a box with a plot with a hole asap you twat.

any suggestions?

funny old world.

[One percent]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Seen this house December, offer in , accepted just before Xmas. Probate, needs lots doing. Letter asking to come in to complete Saturday. Called solicitor, said , ask em to knock 9k off and no problem, we’ll do it this week

( needs to be after 5th April, interest needed) 

Seller - email today, it’s the price, we want to complete asap.

me - 8th April, complete, pay get keys.

it doesn’t help my plans when the wank msm publish headlines about hpi being +3.5k.

I met the executives on Saturday, they had the key ( the original estate agent has been bought out by the estate agent we are currently renting from, early January,  and I didn’t want the agent asking questions so they arranged for the executive to give me access) as I wanted to check on something .Male executive was an old cunt who kept telling me how much that house over there went for, that next door but 2 is up for , the one on the corner… blah …blah.

I bit my lip thinking you’re fuckin such a covid cunt and you need a box with a plot with a hole asap you twat.

any suggestions?

funny old world.

Stick to your guns. The thing is like an albatross round their neck.   It’s also hardly a rising market.  If you lose it, there will be something else, if you allow them to bully you, you will sit in that house resenting them. 

[Axeman123]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

any suggestions?

Make it a game to see how far you can push them - I would try and see how close I could get to blowing the deal up without actually doing so, and cultivate the attitude of being very happy if it did accidentally blow up. Either they will bend over or they won't, might as well put 'em through their paces to find out.

The way things are going it will just keep getting easier to find a suitable alternative purchase IMO.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, One percent said:

Stick to your guns. The thing is like an albatross round their neck.   It’s also hardly a rising market.  If you lose it, there will be something else, if you allow them to bully you, you will sit in that house resenting them. 

The speed it’s gone through surprised me and also says to me houses ain’t selling and the leaches of the cabals need money. Let them all burn in hell. Including the old shit head deluded coffin dodger.