Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 7)

[Lightscribe]

 

First Gold was up for that Sunday pump and dump and now it looks like BTCs turn for a smack down

[Castlevania]

6 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Interested to see what the TEF divi is, I shifted a lot from TEF Brazil over for the divi.

It’s €0.15 less 19% Spanish withholding tax. Thus around £0.10 a share.

[Long time lurking]

8 hours ago, Harley said:

Listening to the weekend's Financial Sense Newshour podcast (by a reputable fund manager) and they talked quite calmly about the US eventual needing to force 401k holders to buy USTs, probably worthless ones, maybe claiming to protect investors, etc.  Never expected this and in this manner from such a mainstream source.

The UK done it in the early 2000s Japan done it before then and since to a greater degree ,the UK IMO are currently doing it again via its start up funding imitative basically invest in a sector with a 90% failure rate 

Pensions are the only pot of honey left they will be raided 

[Plan-b]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

here's an example of what I mean about tipping points.At some point the penny will drop with these 3.5mn that they've been conned and whislt they're destined to live in penury in old age,they're expeceted to pay for all the bennie claimants to live inclover.

saem with all teh migrants arriving getting bennies.

anyway thsi covers 3.5mn paying nothing but there msut be millions more paying in nowhere near enoguh

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/retirement/staggering-number-people-not-saving-enough-for-retirement/

‘Staggering’ number of people not saving enough for retirement

Around 3.5m private sector employees do not pay anything into a pension in a given year

A “staggering” number of people are not saving enough for their retirement, an executive at one of Britain’s biggest pensions and savings providers has warned.

Mike Eakins, chief investment officer at Phoenix Group, said households are facing a shock in later life when they realise savings pots are smaller than expected.

His comments come after a report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) revealed earlier this year that around 3.5m private sector employees do not pay anything into a pension in a given year.

Lord Turner’s Pension Commission, which ran from 2002 to 2006, recommended that employees put 15pc of their annual earnings into their pension.

 

 

However, out of those who do save, nearly nine in 10 middle-earning private sector employees are not meeting this target. Figures from the IFS found that nearly two-thirds are saving less than 8pc.

In 1992, UK pension funds held 32.4pc of British shares, according to the Office for National Statistics. In 2022, this proportion hit a record low of just 1.6pc.

Economists and business leaders have warned this means there is not enough cash to boost growth among companies.

'My House Is My Pension' has been the mantra for most for many years and I know a lot of people that would rather spend on their houses than put money into a pension or much else investment wise for that matter.

Without a crystal ball I don't know if that will prove to be a good investment idea personally I don't think it will. 

[Long time lurking]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I was working last night(NHS) and I think your track record will be preserved with this call.

I mainly work a Midlands city circa 250k population plus suburbs with occasiaonl trips to even less salubrious places when they're struggling.Of late we've been struggling that much they've curtailed our trips out of area.

Last night was manic.Huge waits at hospital,no beds,crews sat there doing nothing then under stress as soon they get out as the control room tries to catch up.The waiting rooms in A&E were standing room only.

Some may say that's not real collpase and I'd agree but you can jsut feel that more and more staff are looking for a way out.We've already lsot lots of expereince over the last few years-in 2022 we lost about 25% of our staff,mainly experienced ones.

A&E and care homes aren't much different.Lots of care homes now rely on staff recently recruited from Africa/India.As care homes struggle and care provision worsens due to loss of experienced staff,more patients end up backing up in A&E ...

Long story short,the politcal class are loading the pressures up within the welfare,health, education,law & order systems and they're creaking.The problem is the tipping point-where it is and what it takes to send us over the edge.The loss of exerienced staff reduces our abiltiy to cope and hence my view is that if/when we collapse it will be sudden much like a ship capsizing.

At some point it's going to dawn on the locals that laoding 600,000 new mouths to feed every year was going to end in collpase.

Here's a recent example of the phenomen

 

It's the same in my industry and it's all down to age demographics and two generations or more of neglect of training 

There's less and less experience and even less experienced willing to takeover from those that are leaving which is leading to the young but willing with very little experience trying to do what normally took a couple of decades to learn 

This is all down to incentive or more the lack of for the experienced ,the whole game has been turned upside down compared to how it functioned for a century or more 

 

[Castlevania]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

TEF ,IMPs,SEDY,and NinetyOne for me i think to come.

I’ve got all the below to come this month:

Telefonica

Imperial

Ninety One

3M

Cresud (was paid in October but seems to take a couple months to make its way to the ADR holders. Will probably get crushed on the exchange rate)

B2Gold

Airtel Africa

Shell

Lovely!

Edit: Plus I think there’s another Petrobras dividend (two payouts in a month  )

Edited December 11, 2023 by Castlevania

[Long time lurking]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

 

First Gold was up for that Sunday pump and dump and now it looks like BTCs turn for a smack down

Taking profits 

[Heart's Ease]

33 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I’ve got all the below to come this month:

Telefonica

Imperial

Ninety One

3M

Cresud (was paid in October but seems to take a couple months to make its way to the ADR holders. Will probably get crushed on the exchange rate)

B2Gold

Airtel Africa

Shell

Lovely!

Edit: Plus I think there’s another Petrobras dividend (two payouts in a month  )

Plus BP and XOM (perhaps REP as well - edit this is next month along with TTE).

Got 44p off First Majestic last week too!

Edited December 11, 2023 by Heart's Ease
Repsol is 11 Jan for 37.5c

[Harley]

13 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Interesting youtube video:

 

..salient points for me were:

1. Of a World tracker/index, 62% will be US AND more importantly 30% of this will be the FAANGS...so this equates to 18.6% of the whole in just a few US companies.

2. Point made that due to variance over the next 10 years a pure Passive approach to stocks could lead to you going nowhere, and so an more Active approach will be needed.

3. Touched on Jap Yen and the impact of the forthcoming change in approach/policy.

I'm really enjoying Adam's new show, including the lack of adviser plug.  IMO jury still out on Wealthion.

[Castlevania]

1 minute ago, Heart's Ease said:

Plus BP and XOM (perhaps REP as well).

Got 44p off First Majestic last week too!

I no longer own BP; Exxon or First Majestic. Repsol is in January.

[Long time lurking]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

CB demand has been strong ,as @Errol has been pointing out for a couple of years.

I like the way you structure the logic.underlined.they know whats coming,I couldnt agree more

You have factor in which central bank's have been buying when you do you will figure out they are buying for a different reason 

If you gun a trade surplus with a country that's fond of printing money at will do you hold your surplus in that currency or gold ,it matters not what they print if they hold the latter gold don't go up in price currencies devalue against it when they need said currency they simply sell at the current rate of exchange 

[Harley]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Anywa look at the cahrt

Have been for years and telling ya'll 'ave a nice cup of tea but oh no "we don't do TA (never look at charts eh)"!  

But I like a bit of conspiratory in me tea and you've gotta wonder about those "abnormal" hits on the handle.

One hit for sure, indeed it ain't a nice brew without one but not the latter ones.  Bloke asked on

Financial Sense asking about one of those early hour Sunday smack downs.  Bloke yaps on about thin trading, blah, blah.  Sounded sincere that he had no idea.

Anyways, goes to show paper loses out in the end and gold is something ya buy and forget. 

Fully expect more and then the regulationary Big Kahuna.

All of it all, markets sre so gay (fake happy) and fixed.

Edited December 11, 2023 by Harley

[Loki]

Rightmove HPI m/m -1.9%

[Harley]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

here's an example of what I mean about tipping points.At some point the penny will drop with these 3.5mn that they've been conned and whislt they're destined to live in penury in old age,they're expeceted to pay for all the bennie claimants to live inclover.

saem with all teh migrants arriving getting bennies.

anyway thsi covers 3.5mn paying nothing but there msut be millions more paying in nowhere near enoguh

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/retirement/staggering-number-people-not-saving-enough-for-retirement/

‘Staggering’ number of people not saving enough for retirement

Around 3.5m private sector employees do not pay anything into a pension in a given year

A “staggering” number of people are not saving enough for their retirement, an executive at one of Britain’s biggest pensions and savings providers has warned.

Mike Eakins, chief investment officer at Phoenix Group, said households are facing a shock in later life when they realise savings pots are smaller than expected.

His comments come after a report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) revealed earlier this year that around 3.5m private sector employees do not pay anything into a pension in a given year.

Lord Turner’s Pension Commission, which ran from 2002 to 2006, recommended that employees put 15pc of their annual earnings into their pension.

 

 

However, out of those who do save, nearly nine in 10 middle-earning private sector employees are not meeting this target. Figures from the IFS found that nearly two-thirds are saving less than 8pc.

In 1992, UK pension funds held 32.4pc of British shares, according to the Office for National Statistics. In 2022, this proportion hit a record low of just 1.6pc.

Economists and business leaders have warned this means there is not enough cash to boost growth among companies.

Of course they're not.  Keep it simple, HMG and their bosses have "stolen" it.

[Castlevania]

54 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I’ve got all the below to come this month:

Telefonica

Imperial

Ninety One

3M

Cresud (was paid in October but seems to take a couple months to make its way to the ADR holders. Will probably get crushed on the exchange rate)

B2Gold

Airtel Africa

Shell

Lovely!

Edit: Plus I think there’s another Petrobras dividend (two payouts in a month  )

IBTL is also this month 

[Loki]

Just now, Castlevania said:

IBTL is also this month 

And IBTM already paid 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Plan-b said:

'My House Is My Pension' has been the mantra for most for many years and I know a lot of people that would rather spend on their houses than put money into a pension or much else investment wise for that matter.

Without a crystal ball I don't know if that will prove to be a good investment idea personally I don't think it will. 

Housing is a blind valley with a killing field at the end.

[Stuey]

The grey lines are 500p and 1000p.

Natural gas has collapsed in price @JFK

Reasons are plentiful. The most recent being the Panama Canal low water/drought issue. It is less profitable to send LNG to Asia around South America or pay the fees through the canal than just to ship it to Europe's regasification terminals. 

This is a reason why @JFK's American posts on the High Inflation thread are stupid. While global gas markets are partially integrated, they can still become local or regional based on events. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

19 hours ago, nirvana said:

i travel with one bag, hand luggage. You know how cheap it is to buy anything in the east, especially clothes......I travel 'super lite' now.......in fact if I can 'get myself off tech' I can even ditch the laptop lol........I'll start a thread for ideas and comments

Buy merino t shirts, undies and socks. Antimicrobial, temperature regulating, dries unbelievably quickly. You can literally dispense with taking clothes other than what you're wearing if you want to go full Jack Reacher. 😂

[Cattle Prod]

14 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

The Freegold guys and gals have this covered.  

 

I don't know anything about the Freegold stuff, I'll have a read, thanks.

A question I have long asked myself is why do we need economic growth? It is drummed into us like a mantra since we are children, on every bit of financial news, growth growth growth. I'm a resources guy, and I keep thinking 'what's the end game here, it's a finite world with finite resources?', The answer of course is the debt backed fiat currency system requires growth to pay the interest on the debt. Our money = debt plus interest. If there is no growth, the interest doesn't get paid and the system collapses. This is why governements and economists are so obsessed with recessions and deflation, they are system killers if not nipped in the bud. Recessions are as natural as spring and autumn. I've just put the bird feed out, autumn and winter is hard for some people, who need to be helped. But winter cleanses too, all the bugs, microbes, vermin in the system ready for the regeneration in spring. Currently, there is no cleansing of the crud in our capitalist system.

There is a difference between properity and growth per se. There was massive advances in prosperity under the gold standard and the partial gold standard. What gold linked money does is limit the governments ability to waste money. For this point forward it would massively increase productivity, as there would be no ability to print debt based money to hand out on benefits, and the able bodies layabouts would have to work. No more working tax credits, overseas aid, or unskilled immigrants. Even despite a debt based fiat money the Japanese have managed to preserve prosperity with no growth, largely by having no immigration, and having to innovate instead.

With a gold linked currency we too would again be forced to innovate: so much of our current tech and 'progress' has roots in advancements under gold linked currencies, particualrly during and after WWII: computing, cryptography, nuclear power, jet engines, silicon chip, rocketry etc etc. Ever wonder why we've gone backwards since Concorde? Concorde first took off just 66 years (money was gold linked during this whole period) after the Wright Brothers first flew a spruce and muslin frame for 12 seconds. It is now 58 years since Concorde first took off, and we are still using pre Concorde WWII era jet tech. Debt backed fiat currency and the associated 'growth' is poison to human brilliance.

As I've outlined here before, I think that the debt based fiat money system has been enabled by a massive injection of practically free energy, dug out of the ground, increasing steadily for decades at 1% or 2% a year. Governments have accordingly grown fat, inefficent and lazy, and have infantillised the people they purport to govern. As was pointed out in a post above, you cannot insulate people from risk, you can only teach them how to mitigate it. As with a child, you need to prepare them to go out in the world, as you won't always be there to hold their hand crossing the road. Our society now runs to 'Mummy' for everything, and just like the Jungian Devouring Mother archetype, 'Mummy' is destroying her children.

Don't be a child of the state. Wait it out, the system is changing before our eyes. The state has realised it's not going to get its free 1%-2% a year in free energy, and they are panicking. Listen to @DurhamBorn when he says the number one job for us to do is protect what we have from the state. If you can do that, let them panic, and wait for springtime.

[Loki]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

A question I have long asked myself is why do we need economic growth? It is drummed into us like a mantra since we are children, on every bit of financial news, growth growth growth. I'm a resources guy, and I keep thinking 'what's the end game here, it's a finite world with finite resources?'

Well a living organism that isn't deranged seeks homeostasis.  Unchecked growth is a derangement of that system, and is called cancer.  Unchecked growth of the money supply being the inherent issue

 

TL;DR - inflation is carcinogenic 

Thankyou for watching my TedX talk don't forget to like share and subscribe

Edited December 11, 2023 by Loki

[Pip321]

47 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I don't know anything about the Freegold stuff, I'll have a read, thanks.

A question I have long asked myself is why do we need economic growth? It is drummed into us like a mantra since we are children, on every bit of financial news, growth growth growth. I'm a resources guy, and I keep thinking 'what's the end game here, it's a finite world with finite resources?', The answer of course is the debt backed fiat currency system requires growth to pay the interest on the debt. Our money = debt plus interest. If there is no growth, the interest doesn't get paid and the system collapses. This is why governements and economists are so obsessed with recessions and deflation, they are system killers if not nipped in the bud. Recessions are as natural as spring and autumn. I've just put the bird feed out, autumn and winter is hard for some people, who need to be helped. But winter cleanses too, all the bugs, microbes, vermin in the system ready for the regeneration in spring. Currently, there is no cleansing of the crud in our capitalist system.

There is a difference between properity and growth per se. There was massive advances in prosperity under the gold standard and the partial gold standard. What gold linked money does is limit the governments ability to waste money. For this point forward it would massively increase productivity, as there would be no ability to print debt based money to hand out on benefits, and the able bodies layabouts would have to work. No more working tax credits, overseas aid, or unskilled immigrants. Even despite a debt based fiat money the Japanese have managed to preserve prosperity with no growth, largely by having no immigration, and having to innovate instead.

With a gold linked currency we too would again be forced to innovate: so much of our current tech and 'progress' has roots in advancements under gold linked currencies, particualrly during and after WWII: computing, cryptography, nuclear power, jet engines, silicon chip, rocketry etc etc. Ever wonder why we've gone backwards since Concorde? Concorde first took off just 66 years (money was gold linked during this whole period) after the Wright Brothers first flew a spruce and muslin frame for 12 seconds. It is now 58 years since Concorde first took off, and we are still using pre Concorde WWII era jet tech. Debt backed fiat currency and the associated 'growth' is poison to human brilliance.

As I've outlined here before, I think that the debt based fiat money system has been enabled by a massive injection of practically free energy, dug out of the ground, increasing steadily for decades at 1% or 2% a year. Governments have accordingly grown fat, inefficent and lazy, and have infantillised the people they purport to govern. As was pointed out in a post above, you cannot insulate people from risk, you can only teach them how to mitigate it. As with a child, you need to prepare them to go out in the world, as you won't always be there to hold their hand crossing the road. Our society now runs to 'Mummy' for everything, and just like the Jungian Devouring Mother archetype, 'Mummy' is destroying her children.

Don't be a child of the state. Wait it out, the system is changing before our eyes. The state has realised it's not going to get its free 1%-2% a year in free energy, and they are panicking. Listen to @DurhamBorn when he says the number one job for us to do is protect what we have from the state. If you can do that, let them panic, and wait for springtime.

Super post….really thought provoking. 

They is so much to think about and understand…..the free growth even on the back of child labour in umper lumpa land so we can buy clothes for £3 etc…..has been an unbelievable opportunity for us to live well and our over lords to live like gods.  That cheap labour, cheap energy and printy printy is as you say grinding to an end.

Positioning and working out the best approach is easier said than done and whilst we have no 100% agreement on this thread there is a strong consensus that should help…..all being well  

I worry most for those who now need lip fillers every six months, what will they do when the bennies stop…🤦🏻‍♂️..

[Alifelessbinary]

4 hours ago, Plan-b said:

'My House Is My Pension' has been the mantra for most for many years and I know a lot of people that would rather spend on their houses than put money into a pension or much else investment wise for that matter.

Without a crystal ball I don't know if that will prove to be a good investment idea personally I don't think it will. 

You’re nut to keep all of your net worth in a single assets, especially one like property where in bad times can become illiquid (impossible to sell) when the buyers vacate the market.

Property has been an incredible investment for some, but that was mainly due to an abnormality in interest rates and property prices bottoming during the 90’s. It’s pretty much the only leveraged financial investment ordinary people buy, however when I explain gearing to my friends their eyes glaze over.

Where possible I’m trying to diversify for assets, as it’s hard to see how the markets are going to advance over the next decade. We’re clearly going into a very volatile period and for me capital preservation is more important than returns right now.

One area that is overlooked is the huge sums of money being transferred from boomers to their offspring through inheritance. This will keep the Property market propped up far longer than is rational. It could also have huge impacts for stock markets if they decide to stick it all in ESG stocks. It’s to be seen whether this capital is invested efficiently.

[DurhamBorn]

49 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I don't know anything about the Freegold stuff, I'll have a read, thanks.

A question I have long asked myself is why do we need economic growth? It is drummed into us like a mantra since we are children, on every bit of financial news, growth growth growth. I'm a resources guy, and I keep thinking 'what's the end game here, it's a finite world with finite resources?', The answer of course is the debt backed fiat currency system requires growth to pay the interest on the debt. Our money = debt plus interest. If there is no growth, the interest doesn't get paid and the system collapses. This is why governements and economists are so obsessed with recessions and deflation, they are system killers if not nipped in the bud. Recessions are as natural as spring and autumn. I've just put the bird feed out, autumn and winter is hard for some people, who need to be helped. But winter cleanses too, all the bugs, microbes, vermin in the system ready for the regeneration in spring. Currently, there is no cleansing of the crud in our capitalist system.

There is a difference between properity and growth per se. There was massive advances in prosperity under the gold standard and the partial gold standard. What gold linked money does is limit the governments ability to waste money. For this point forward it would massively increase productivity, as there would be no ability to print debt based money to hand out on benefits, and the able bodies layabouts would have to work. No more working tax credits, overseas aid, or unskilled immigrants. Even despite a debt based fiat money the Japanese have managed to preserve prosperity with no growth, largely by having no immigration, and having to innovate instead.

With a gold linked currency we too would again be forced to innovate: so much of our current tech and 'progress' has roots in advancements under gold linked currencies, particualrly during and after WWII: computing, cryptography, nuclear power, jet engines, silicon chip, rocketry etc etc. Ever wonder why we've gone backwards since Concorde? Concorde first took off just 66 years (money was gold linked during this whole period) after the Wright Brothers first flew a spruce and muslin frame for 12 seconds. It is now 58 years since Concorde first took off, and we are still using pre Concorde WWII era jet tech. Debt backed fiat currency and the associated 'growth' is poison to human brilliance.

As I've outlined here before, I think that the debt based fiat money system has been enabled by a massive injection of practically free energy, dug out of the ground, increasing steadily for decades at 1% or 2% a year. Governments have accordingly grown fat, inefficent and lazy, and have infantillised the people they purport to govern. As was pointed out in a post above, you cannot insulate people from risk, you can only teach them how to mitigate it. As with a child, you need to prepare them to go out in the world, as you won't always be there to hold their hand crossing the road. Our society now runs to 'Mummy' for everything, and just like the Jungian Devouring Mother archetype, 'Mummy' is destroying her children.

Don't be a child of the state. Wait it out, the system is changing before our eyes. The state has realised it's not going to get its free 1%-2% a year in free energy, and they are panicking. Listen to @DurhamBorn when he says the number one job for us to do is protect what we have from the state. If you can do that, let them panic, and wait for springtime.

End of cycle yes.Fiat offers the idea if you increase the money supply you increase the economy,and it looked like it because the economy did grow,but as you say that was a product of energy growing.Fiat ensures anyone who works hard,builds capital,invents etc loses those savings,all of them.Its why slowly everyone stops saving,stops working,stops inventing etc.Hard money means more work,more savings,more inventions because the rewards are not stolen.

The government and BOE will face reality in time,but until then they will just try to tax and take everything.Freezing tax allowances is the tell.Just think on IHT,its so low almost everyone who has a house and a few quid will be hit soon.

Cycle is clear,government taking all it can until it cannot,and more and more from less being how people respond.

The market always hurts the most,so just as everyone thinks government has their backs so dont save,it will be removed,and they will be working or skint in their 50s and 60s and beyond.

 

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, Alifelessbinary said:

You’re nut to keep all of your net worth in a single assets, especially one like property where in bad times can become illiquid (impossible to sell) when the buyers vacate the market.

Property has been an incredible investment for some, but that was mainly due to an abnormality in interest rates and property prices bottoming during the 90’s. It’s pretty much the only leveraged financial investment ordinary people buy, however when I explain gearing to my friends their eyes glaze over.

Where possible I’m trying to diversify for assets, as it’s hard to see how the markets are going to advance over the next decade. We’re clearly going into a very volatile period and for me capital preservation is more important than returns right now.

One area that is overlooked is the huge sums of money being transferred from boomers to their offspring through inheritance. This will keep the Property market propped up far longer than is rational. It could also have huge impacts for stock markets if they decide to stick it all in ESG stocks. It’s to be seen whether this capital is invested efficiently.

Its why i like the  asset managers as a contrarian call.Massive wealth transfer from property,and the generation below ie mine mostly also own already,so likely huge chunk goes into investments.Hated sector,but with a very very strong cross market call .Cross market calls can fail,they come from the macro direction,they are not direct calls,but they tend to be very very profitable ones when they hit because they tend to be missed by everyone else.Its a long range call so will take time to develop,giving me time to flow some more divis into the sector.