Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 7)

[spunko]

Carrying on from Part 6:

 

[No One]

first

oh yeah, I got in just in the nick of time

[janch]

@Plan-bDon't worry DB we called it a long time ago, the system must now collapse to clear the decks this is what will be required for a change in direction."

Apparently this has been subject to research in the past and is the Cloward Piven strategy.  From a comment on another website:

I believe we are now encountering a version of the Cloward Piven strategy in the UK and Europe using mass uncontrolled immigration to bankrupt the governments which will lead to the “solution” which has of course already been prepared – CBDC and then UBI.

Cloward and Piven wanted local and state providers of aid to go bankrupt by overloading the system, so that the federal government would have to step in and guarantee payments. All countries are following the same policies and with the exception of Hungary, all are now accepting unlimited numbers of illegal immigrants who will eventually bankrupt each country in turn.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloward–Piven_strategy

[janch]

There was a good article about the horrendous taxes people are paying in the financial pages yesterday:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12656379/Millions-workers-face-9p-pound-tax-raid.htm

Liz Truss has set up a think-tank called the Growth Commission with different economists from the normal crowd and they will propose an alternative budget to the Chancellor's a week before Jeremy Hunt's.

The article is well worth a read.  Some people are beginning to think about a change of tack and how we can't afford our present course of action.  Perhaps they are reading this thread?

[Bear Hug]

5 minutes ago, janch said:

There was a good article about the horrendous taxes people are paying in the financial pages yesterday:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12656379/Millions-workers-face-9p-pound-tax-raid.htm

Liz Truss has set up a think-tank called the Growth Commission with different economists from the normal crowd and they will propose an alternative budget to the Chancellor's a week before Jeremy Hunt's.

The article is well worth a read.  Some people are beginning to think about a change of tack and how we can't afford our present course of action.  Perhaps they are reading this thread?

It's a setup to get turkeys voting for Christmas. Give good ideas to a retard (oh yes, she is, I've seen her foreign secretary and cheese speeches), then watch the people reject them as they are coming from her. 

[Harley]

58 minutes ago, spunko said:

Carrying on from Part 6:

 

That's it.  After the last few explosive posts in Part 6 they start Part 7.  Dosbods is defo a Big Brother job.  Proof positive if I get banned while hill walking!

[leonardratso]

i didnt notice any explosive last few posts? did i miss out. Said (now corrected) continued from part 5 in the OP, so i reckon theres something in part 6 that the government doesnt want made public. I will go thru part 6 with a fine tooth comb and find it, be back in 8 months or so.

Edited October 23, 2023 by leonardratso

[Funn3r]

55 minutes ago, Cawn said:

Anyone holding Polymetal with HL, they have no share price attached anymore, zero value how can they charge commission in an ISA when they have no value. I thought it was a percentage of the share price? 

How can HL charge a percentage of nothing commission? Poly shares are worth nothing yet they charge something of nothing to hold, bloody odd arrangement?

Aha thanks. I wondered why the overall value headline value of my ISA had dropped suddenly.

[ILikeCake]

1 hour ago, Cawn said:

Anyone holding Polymetal with HL, they have no share price attached anymore, zero value how can they charge commission in an ISA when they have no value. I thought it was a percentage of the share price? 

How can HL charge a percentage of nothing commission? Poly shares are worth nothing yet they charge something of nothing to hold, bloody odd arrangement?

Yes, showing as zero in my SIPP, just like my Gazprom shares. 

[Axeman123]

37 minutes ago, janch said:

propose an alternative budget to the Chancellor's a week before

That is a shot accross the bows, now the membership would be able to vote for a new leader too (subject to MPs playing ball) since Pishy has had his 12 months grace period as a new PM. The real lesson of the tworecent byelections is that core voters can stay home if they don't like policy.

[F150]

end this thread its all so boring now

just admit it the UK is a shithole full of car brains with a genetic defect related to long term financial planning and pin that and tell everyone to get off the internet

[Stuey]

Just now, F150 said:

end this thread its all so boring now

just admit it the UK is a shithole full of car brains with a genetic defect related to long term financial planning and pin that and tell everyone to get off the internet

Not me, I've just lumped into a fixed ISA at 5.65% which I think will be seen as excellent peak rate investment. 

[Long time lurking]

The way the winds blowing 

 

[Long time lurking]

19 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Not me, I've just lumped into a fixed ISA at 5.65% which I think will be seen as excellent peak rate investment. 

Shawbrook was offering 5.87% a few weeks ago for a 1 year fix missed the boat 

But i fully expect a better one along before long 

[Stuey]

1 minute ago, Long time lurking said:

Shawbrook was offering 5.87% a few weeks ago for a 1 year fix missed the boat 

But i fully expect a better one along before long 

Yields have peaked imo and getting above 5.25% really is a bonus. That 5.65% will be gone soon. 

[Long time lurking]

4 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Yields have peaked imo and getting above 5.25% really is a bonus. That 5.65% will be gone soon. 

No chances ,unless the FED print trillions in the next few months then we will see real inflation due to currency debasement 

War has always seen a flight to safety in bonds the opposite is happening now 

[Stuey]

1 minute ago, Long time lurking said:

No chances ,unless the FED print trillions in the next few months then we will see real inflation due to currency debasement 

War has always seen a flight to safety in bonds the opposite is happening now 

Just a couple of minor skirmishes really. 

[Lightscribe]

10 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

No chances ,unless the FED print trillions in the next few months then we will see real inflation due to currency debasement 

War has always seen a flight to safety in bonds the opposite is happening now 

You see everyone expects silver to close the historical ratio to gold due to industrial demand (solar panels, EV) and reduced resources going forwards. Truth is paper rigging shenanigans would never allow that to happen.

However what will send it following gold and closing the gap in resulting stagflation will be the loss of faith in treasuries. 

Economists expect that when this war escalates treasuries will drop like a stone in a flight to safety (hence the 2024 ‘year of the bond’ articles - that stuey will probably like)

But what we’re seeing at moment is that the market doesn’t ‘buy’ that inflation is going away or that treasuries are ‘good value’ at these rates. That means a bull run for gold/silver.

Edited October 23, 2023 by Lightscribe

[ashestoashes]

16 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Yields have peaked imo and getting above 5.25% really is a bonus. That 5.65% will be gone soon. 

thought you were going to corner the Stockton waterfront property market

[Long time lurking]

10 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

But what we’re seeing at moment is that the market doesn’t ‘buy’ that inflation is going away or that treasuries are ‘good value’ at these rates. That means a bull run for gold/silver.

Just look at who`s buying UST`s  "at theses rates" tells you all you need to know  

Gold is not been seen as an investment now as such it`s more an alternative to holding foreign debt ,the trust has gone 

A great interview below outlining the gulf between politics and commerce which we are now witnessing ,the latter will always trump the former 

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Long time lurking

[Castlevania]

44 minutes ago, Cawn said:

Are they charging management fees for Gazprom.

How can they charge a percentage of value when there is no value. 

 

What’s 0.45% of zero?

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

What’s 0.45% of zero?

Is this one of those trick questions like what does interest only mean?

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, Stuey said:

Not me, I've just lumped into a fixed ISA at 5.65% which I think will be seen as excellent peak rate investment. 

It is not an "investment" it is a savings account.

Lets see where you are after 12 months, I am going to use BATS as a comparison, todays price £24.55 with a 9.3% yield.

See you in a year.

[Clueless Imbecile]

I've been following this thread for a long time. I've noticed that there has been a lot of doom & gloom on here over the past year or two, understandably so considering the state of the global economy, and the apparent determination of the British government to pursue destructive policies (both economic and otherwise). I'm not criticising the doom on the thread; I'd far rather hear peoples' unvarnished opinons, even if they are forecasting bad events, than hear a comfortable fiction.

I've been feeling quite anxious, angry, and worried about the future, primarily about threats to my financial security but also about threats to freedom & civil liberties. With that in mind, I have been trying to think of some reasons to be hopeful; to find some crumbs of comfort. It's in that spirit that I wrote these thoughts.

Here is my attempt at listing some reasons to be hopeful/optimistic. It's not a lot, but it's the best I can do right now....

1. The recent removal of the lifetime allowance tax charge from pensions (although the 25% tax free lump sum has been limited to what it was under the old lifetime allowance) seems to be at least one step in the right direction. I know many/most people won't have anywhere near the old lifetime allowance amount in their pension, but at least this should benefit higher earners, and perhaps remove one of the reasons for highly experienced & qualified people from leaving the workforce earlier than otherwise. Also, it shows that the powers that be are aware of how tax rules can discourage economic activity, and that they are capable of adjusting their approach (ie: changing the tax rules so as to be less harsh). Of course it's possible that a future government could re-introduce the lifetime allowance, but then I believe that no parliament can bind a future parliament, so everything is potentially subject to change in future. I've tried to reduce that risk by not going all out to load my pension up as much as possible. Likewise, I've not gone all out to load up my ISA as much as possible. In other words, I still believe in diversification.

2. With chaos comes opportunity. Even in hard times, there are usually some people prospering. Lets hope it's us!

3. Jesus said "Everything is possible for the person who has faith." (Mark 9:23). If you're wondering WTF has religion got to do with this thread, I think it's about believing in something as an anchor-point to help stay grounded, so as not to be emotionally buffeted about by the winds of fate. I think half the battle in life is the mental game (getting your mindset right).

4. In society generally, there is usually more sympathy for the young and the old. Some of us here are in the later stages of our careers and close to retirement. If we can survive until state pension age, maybe we will be considered "old" and treated sympathetically by government as regards policy, benefits etc. I am aware that old people have had it tough in times past (maybe as recent as the 1980's) and that the generosity shown to old people over the past few years (state pension triple-lock) might come to an end due to unaffordability, so this more a hope than an expectation.

5. I have some faith in the law of attraction; focus on what you want, not on the lack of it. Also known as, "Think positive", and "Worrying is praying for what you don't want.". What does this mean in practical terms? I think it means consider the risks and plan accordingly, but don't spend every waking hour dwelling on the worst case scenarios, lest they might become a "self-fulfilling prophecy" (look that phrase up; it's quite intriguing!).

6. We have the (in my opinion) high-quality well-informed debate on this thread and also the "hive mind" to process it and come up with ideas & strategies. Hopefully that gives us an advantage over a lot of people.

7. Live in the moment. I think we're right to try to recognise how things are (current situation) and then try to forecast where things are headed (future situation) and adjust our investments appropriately to try to make the best of them. However, The past is gone; the future has yet to be determined; the only moment that we can act in is the now. I'm a fine one to say this, since I've spent most of my adult life dwelling on bad experiences from the past and worrying about the future!

8. Spiritual belief has some value. If you believe that all that we are is the physical body that we live in, then you will probably be soul-destroyed if you lose someone close to you, and you'll probably fear your own death. However, if you believe in the eternal soul or spirit, and think of death of the physical body as merely a transition to a different state, then you might gain mental & emotional strength from that.

9. Wealth is relative. We may be struggling to grow our investments, but many other people will also be struggling, and some may not even have any investments. If we can maintain our relative positions, then at least that is something. If life gets tougher for everyone, that's a bit of a bummer, but maybe it would just be like living a few decades ago, where life was a bit harder but still ok and people were still happy & healthy generally.

Thanks for all the knowledge & wisdom that's been shared on here. God bless all.

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

13 minutes ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

God bless all.

That is why I posted this last week.

Father, can you hear me?
How have I let you down?
I curse the day that I was born
And all the sorrow in this world
Let me take you to the hurting ground
Where all good men are trampled down
Just to settle a bet that could not be won
Between a prideful father and his son
Will you guide me now? For I can't see
A reason for the suffering and this long misery
What if every living soul could be upright and strong?
Well then I do imagine
There will be sorrow
Yeah, there will be sorrow
And there will be sorrow no more
When all soldiers lay their weapons down
Or when all kings and all queens relinquish their crowns
Or when the only true messiah rescues us from ourselves
It's easy to imagine
There will be sorrow
Yeah, there will be sorrow
And there will be sorrow no more.

Difficult days for the thread at the moment, but at least we are not being killed in the trenches yet.

Edited October 23, 2023 by Bobthebuilder