Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 7)

[PETR4]

I've done a bit of research on the limites to growth chart. It's way off the mark!

Non renewable resources remaining - a proxy for fossil fuels. That's probably the most accurate.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/years-of-fossil-fuel-reserves-left?time=1980..2020&facet=none

Food per capital - No sign of decline or slowing down as at the current year.

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPDPC@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

This is very detailed if you want a deep dive: https://www.fao.org/3/ac911e/ac911e05.htm

Services per Capita and Industrial Output - Globally still on the up as at the current year.

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPDPC@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

I tried to find a single metric for global polution, but didn't find an obviously suitable one. More people living industrialised lives means more pollution so I'm  happy that it will track the rise and fall of the population.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#table-forecast

Population is expected to top out in 2090 at just over 10 billion people. I personally think the strain of an extra 2 bn on top of the 8bn we already have will be a lot less than the strain on the planet from 1804 when we hit 1bn, as it's a 25% increase versus an 800% increase!

TLDR: Limits to Growth 1972 analysis out by several decades.

 

[Harley]

41 minutes ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

I've been following this thread for a long time. I've noticed that there has been a lot of doom & gloom on here over the past year or two, understandably so considering the state of the global economy, and the apparent determination of the British government to pursue destructive policies (both economic and otherwise). I'm not criticising the doom on the thread; I'd far rather hear peoples' unvarnished opinons, even if they are forecasting bad events, than hear a comfortable fiction.

I've been feeling quite anxious, angry, and worried about the future, primarily about threats to my financial security but also about threats to freedom & civil liberties. With that in mind, I have been trying to think of some reasons to be hopeful; to find some crumbs of comfort. It's in that spirit that I wrote these thoughts.

Here is my attempt at listing some reasons to be hopeful/optimistic. It's not a lot, but it's the best I can do right now....

1. The recent removal of the lifetime allowance tax charge from pensions (although the 25% tax free lump sum has been limited to what it was under the old lifetime allowance) seems to be at least one step in the right direction. I know many/most people won't have anywhere near the old lifetime allowance amount in their pension, but at least this should benefit higher earners, and perhaps remove one of the reasons for highly experienced & qualified people from leaving the workforce earlier than otherwise. Also, it shows that the powers that be are aware of how tax rules can discourage economic activity, and that they are capable of adjusting their approach (ie: changing the tax rules so as to be less harsh). Of course it's possible that a future government could re-introduce the lifetime allowance, but then I believe that no parliament can bind a future parliament, so everything is potentially subject to change in future. I've tried to reduce that risk by not going all out to load my pension up as much as possible. Likewise, I've not gone all out to load up my ISA as much as possible. In other words, I still believe in diversification.

2. With chaos comes opportunity. Even in hard times, there are usually some people prospering. Lets hope it's us!

3. Jesus said "Everything is possible for the person who has faith." (Mark 9:23). If you're wondering WTF has religion got to do with this thread, I think it's about believing in something as an anchor-point to help stay grounded, so as not to be emotionally buffeted about by the winds of fate. I think half the battle in life is the mental game (getting your mindset right).

4. In society generally, there is usually more sympathy for the young and the old. Some of us here are in the later stages of our careers and close to retirement. If we can survive until state pension age, maybe we will be considered "old" and treated sympathetically by government as regards policy, benefits etc. I am aware that old people have had it tough in times past (maybe as recent as the 1980's) and that the generosity shown to old people over the past few years (state pension triple-lock) might come to an end due to unaffordability, so this more a hope than an expectation.

5. I have some faith in the law of attraction; focus on what you want, not on the lack of it. Also known as, "Think positive", and "Worrying is praying for what you don't want.". What does this mean in practical terms? I think it means consider the risks and plan accordingly, but don't spend every waking hour dwelling on the worst case scenarios, lest they might become a "self-fulfilling prophecy" (look that phrase up; it's quite intriguing!).

6. We have the (in my opinion) high-quality well-informed debate on this thread and also the "hive mind" to process it and come up with ideas & strategies. Hopefully that gives us an advantage over a lot of people.

7. Live in the moment. I think we're right to try to recognise how things are (current situation) and then try to forecast where things are headed (future situation) and adjust our investments appropriately to try to make the best of them. However, The past is gone; the future has yet to be determined; the only moment that we can act in is the now. I'm a fine one to say this, since I've spent most of my adult life dwelling on bad experiences from the past and worrying about the future!

8. Spiritual belief has some value. If you believe that all that we are is the physical body that we live in, then you will probably be soul-destroyed if you lose someone close to you, and you'll probably fear your own death. However, if you believe in the eternal soul or spirit, and think of death of the physical body as merely a transition to a different state, then you might gain mental & emotional strength from that.

9. Wealth is relative. We may be struggling to grow our investments, but many other people will also be struggling, and some may not even have any investments. If we can maintain our relative positions, then at least that is something. If life gets tougher for everyone, that's a bit of a bummer, but maybe it would just be like living a few decades ago, where life was a bit harder but still ok and people were still happy & healthy generally.

Thanks for all the knowledge & wisdom that's been shared on here. God bless all.

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

 

Cheers.

There was this story.  At the end of a route march selection test the candidates were told to go back to where they had come from.  Borderline impossible.  Some threw a paddy and gave up.  Some just shrugged, turned around, and headed off.......only to find a Land Rover and a smile waiting for them just out of sight.  Point being, nothing is written unless you write yourself off.

All this has afforded me the "excuse" to go where I'm the most happiest which is to decomplex and get back to basics.  To do things myself, to learn, to achieve tangible things.  I'm content to know at least I tried and had fun doing it.  That's good enough for me.

One day I will sit down, when I'm ready, but that's not today.

[wherebee]

3 hours ago, Stuey said:

Not me, I've just lumped into a fixed ISA at 5.65% which I think will be seen as excellent peak rate investment. 

Never change old bean, never change.

especially when rates hit 10%

[Lightscribe]

2 hours ago, PETR4 said:

I've done a bit of research on the limites to growth chart. It's way off the mark!

Non renewable resources remaining - a proxy for fossil fuels. That's probably the most accurate.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/years-of-fossil-fuel-reserves-left?time=1980..2020&facet=none

Food per capital - No sign of decline or slowing down as at the current year.

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPDPC@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

This is very detailed if you want a deep dive: https://www.fao.org/3/ac911e/ac911e05.htm

Services per Capita and Industrial Output - Globally still on the up as at the current year.

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPDPC@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD

I tried to find a single metric for global polution, but didn't find an obviously suitable one. More people living industrialised lives means more pollution so I'm  happy that it will track the rise and fall of the population.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/#table-forecast

Population is expected to top out in 2090 at just over 10 billion people. I personally think the strain of an extra 2 bn on top of the 8bn we already have will be a lot less than the strain on the planet from 1804 when we hit 1bn, as it's a 25% increase versus an 800% increase!

TLDR: Limits to Growth 1972 analysis out by several decades.

 

What it doesn’t take into account (in the trajectory of the examples) is that the world will fracture into resource/production ‘parts’ (G7 vs BRICS) and that the world isn’t a harmonious ‘Kumbaya’ when push comes to shove.

The global powers know exactly that so act accordingly. The last of the world’s resources will be fought after.

The old world fighting against the new. Like if anyone is pretending that this new ‘current political war’ isn’t exactly that. 
 

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Lightscribe

[Bobthebuilder]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

One day I will sit down, when I'm ready, but that's not today.

 

[Long time lurking]

5 hours ago, Stuey said:

Just a couple of minor skirmishes really. 

Just like the Afghanistan 20 year skirmish 

[Long time lurking]

?

The timing is spot on apparently 

 

[Jay]

5 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

?

The timing is spot on apparently 

 

My understanding of the situation is that Ackerman closed his short position as he thinks that there is too much risk..he did not go long..there is still a lot of hedges short..10 year treasuries did hit 5%..so agree that cost of capital is leading to re pricing..there is greater risk out there..agree with him there..shorting treasuries at these levels is not for me..going long maybe a better bet..picture will be less muddy by year end..be lucky..

[Lightscribe]

 

BTC acting as expected. Again problem is here is ‘off-ramps’. If governments turn around with a similar ban on gold like they have in the past, there’s no hiding transactions (unless swapping it for privacy currency) or cashing it in. That’s why they’ve allowed it. 

[wherebee]

11 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

BTC acting as expected. Again problem is here is ‘off-ramps’. If governments turn around with a similar ban on gold like they have in the past, there’s no hiding transactions (unless swapping it for privacy currency) or cashing it in. That’s why they’ve allowed it. 

This.

 

Most normos have sucked up the propaganda that bitcoin and other ecoins are loved by criminals and impossible to trace.  Nothing could be further from the truth - without extensive planning, very trackable indeed.  The reason crims love them is that cross border wealth transfer is easy, meaning that law enforcement has a shit job getting information from other countries.

 

For the average Joe stuck in loserville USA, bitcoin is as dangerous for hiding activity as putting your drug money straight into a checking account.

[Lightscribe]

Japan returning to QE (like they had a choice) US yields may react expecting them to follow. 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

 

BTC acting as expected. Again problem is here is ‘off-ramps’. If governments turn around with a similar ban on gold like they have in the past, there’s no hiding transactions (unless swapping it for privacy currency) or cashing it in. That’s why they’ve allowed it. 

Bugger, I was going to top up over the weekend.  How many times must I learn to act pronto. 

PS:  Been on a roll for a good few weeks/months. ETH too.

Edited October 24, 2023 by Harley

[Plan-b]

56 minutes ago, wherebee said:

This.

 

Most normos have sucked up the propaganda that bitcoin and other ecoins are loved by criminals and impossible to trace.  Nothing could be further from the truth - without extensive planning, very trackable indeed.  The reason crims love them is that cross border wealth transfer is easy, meaning that law enforcement has a shit job getting information from other countries.

 

For the average Joe stuck in loserville USA, bitcoin is as dangerous for hiding activity as putting your drug money straight into a checking account.

The reason the likes of Blackrock want to get involved is control. Blackcock and the other so called deep-state swampies have to control everything, the ultimate outcome for BTC will be bad unless they say otherwise.

Likely it'll be another additional great back door to drain and provide mass liquidity as they see fit, even better it's worldwide.

[Harley]

12 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Difficult days for the thread at the moment

Portfolios and/or more generally?

[Jay]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

This.

 

Most normos have sucked up the propaganda that bitcoin and other ecoins are loved by criminals and impossible to trace.  Nothing could be further from the truth - without extensive planning, very trackable indeed.  The reason crims love them is that cross border wealth transfer is easy, meaning that law enforcement has a shit job getting information from other countries.

 

For the average Joe stuck in loserville USA, bitcoin is as dangerous for hiding activity as putting your drug money straight into a checking account.

The majority of bitcoin is held by a few big holders…it is legal tender in jurisdiction and borderless..very few criminals use bitcoin when compared to dollars..with all assets the value is in the eye of the beholder..it does have some intrinsic value..it is another risky derivative for some and an insurance policy for others like myself..especially against inflation and state control..

I have a use for this technology so am happy with it..

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

Again problem is here is ‘off-ramps’. If governments turn around with a similar ban on gold like they have in the past, there’s no hiding transactions (unless swapping it for privacy currency) or cashing it in. That’s why they’ve allowed it. 

Not arguing but got me thinking that's what they're currently doing to cash!

[jamtomorrow]

12 minutes ago, Harley said:

Not arguing but got me thinking that's what they're currently doing to cash!

How I feel about government closing the ramps - on or off - in this emerging age of the bloated but impotent state

[ThoughtCriminal]

Orange juice up 400% since 2020. Where was the macro work on this from @DurhamBorn

Fuck you DB 🤣

[Pip321]

18 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Orange juice up 400% since 2020. Where was the macro work on this from @DurhamBorn

Fuck you DB 🤣

No one on here had the crop report from Clarence Beeks. And that insider info is how the real money is made 😉😆

[wherebee]

13 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

No one on here had the crop report from Clarence Beeks. And that insider info is how the real money is made 😉😆

Indeed.

Any idea that high level US and jewish operators didn't know that the attack was coming from HAMAS is blown away by that single graph.  They knew something was coming, either planned by them or they knew enough of the planning.

[Harley]

36 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Orange juice up 400% since 2020. Where was the macro work on this from @DurhamBorn

Fuck you DB 🤣

Enough to make you go low carb.  Hang on......

[ThoughtCriminal]

25 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

No one on here had the crop report from Clarence Beeks. And that insider info is how the real money is made 😉😆

That's exactly what I thought of when I saw this chart 😂

[DurhamBorn]

54 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Orange juice up 400% since 2020. Where was the macro work on this from @DurhamBorn

Fuck you DB 🤣

Orange juice is poison,just really bad sugar carbs,im aiming for Brad Pitt in Snatch,this chart says growth in obese will continue.Nobody on this thread should touch the stuff .

[Long time lurking]

 

[ThoughtCriminal]

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Orange juice is poison,just really bad sugar carbs,im aiming for Brad Pitt in Snatch,this chart says growth in obese will continue.Nobody on this thread should touch the stuff .

It's pretty amazing really. Just pure sugar and people can't get enough of it