Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 7)

[Funn3r]

13 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

You can spend crypto on what you like (and keep it wherever you like - on a bit of paper if you want) but the those transactions will always be there for anyone to see. This allows tracking for all manner of reasons, on what your spending and with who.

Yes you can use a privacy currency, but that won’t be allowed in any mainstream uses and just like Tor, they can theoretically be compromised by government agencies, (taking over of nodes etc) or just taken down altogether (like Encrochat was).

Anyone holding for FIAT gain (or just cashing  out) needs to use the on/off ramp exchanges that are all tethered to the KYC regulations. All the wallet details are linked to IDs.

I have a holding of Monero. A few months ago I was warned by the exchange that the FCA had effectively outlawed it in the UK so no more trading for me. The FBI and IRS have issued rewards for information re defeating the privacy. To me that says it must work reasonably well.

I agree it could all be smoke and mirrors and in reality they chuckle as they watch me closely doing stuff under my false illusion that it is none of their business. If I were a drug cartel kingpin doing big things I might be worried but as I am not, I'm not.

If your point is that crypto is hopeless so might as well stop now then no I do not agree with you.

[Lightscribe]

31 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I have a holding of Monero. A few months ago I was warned by the exchange that the FCA had effectively outlawed it in the UK so no more trading for me. The FBI and IRS have issued rewards for information re defeating the privacy. To me that says it must work reasonably well.

I agree it could all be smoke and mirrors and in reality they chuckle as they watch me closely doing stuff under my false illusion that it is none of their business. If I were a drug cartel kingpin doing big things I might be worried but as I am not, I'm not.

If your point is that crypto is hopeless so might as well stop now then no I do not agree with you.

No it’s not hopeless (My work revolves around the industry) the introduction of ISO 20022 in collaboration with related infrastructure (and tokenised assets and CBDCs) should give an insight to where it’s going (look at my posts over the years).

Encrochat worked extremely well (look it up) doesn’t mean it can’t be curtailed overnight.

[Funn3r]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

No it’s not hopeless (My work revolves around the industry) the introduction of ISO 20022 in collaboration with related infrastructure (and tokenised assets and CBDCs) should give an insight to where it’s going (look at my posts over the years).

Encrochat worked extremely well (look it up) doesn’t mean it can’t be curtailed overnight.

I didn't want to derail this valuable thread into crypto as there is a subforum for that. Now that we are here I can't resist asking a question which has been on my mind. @DurhamBorn you have always held that cryptos will very likely all go to zero - why is this exactly, especially as your long-established cross-market techniques (excuse me if I'm wrong) pre-date crypto as a factor in the real economy?

[Ash4781b]

I see it was reported by some the Office for National Statistics are now using new experimental statistics in the labour market stats at possibly the worse time possible ! Now we get an experimental stats feeding into the Bank of England models.  Oh well at least we get it they don’t want to go above 5.25%.

 

“Because of the increased uncertainty around the Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, today we are publishing an alternative series of estimates of UK employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity as experimental statistics. The experimental figures were derived using growth rates from Pay as You Earn Real-Time Information and the Claimant Count for the periods from May to July 2023 onwards. This is to provide a more holistic view of the state of the labour market while the LFS estimates are uncertain. Unadjusted June to August LFS data are not published. “

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/october2023
 

[Stuey]

57 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Planets not maxed out now or you wouldn't be able to increase it any further at the this current moment in time

Some people have forgotten that energy can't be destroyed. 

[Plan-b]

29 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

I see it was reported by some the Office for National Statistics are now using new experimental statistics in the labour market stats at possibly the worse time possible ! Now we get an experimental stats feeding into the Bank of England models.  Oh well at least we get it they don’t want to go above 5.25%.

 

“Because of the increased uncertainty around the Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, today we are publishing an alternative series of estimates of UK employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity as experimental statistics. The experimental figures were derived using growth rates from Pay as You Earn Real-Time Information and the Claimant Count for the periods from May to July 2023 onwards. This is to provide a more holistic view of the state of the labour market while the LFS estimates are uncertain. Unadjusted June to August LFS data are not published. “

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/october2023
 

(Not you Ash the ONS)

Edited October 24, 2023 by Plan-b

[Bobthebuilder]

11 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Some people have forgotten that energy can't be destroyed. 

Radiation proves you wrong Einstein.

You should write a book, call it "the principal of relative bullshit", or something like that.

[Stuey]

2 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Radiation proves you wrong Einstein.

You should write a book, call it "the principal of relative bullshit", or something like that.

You can have your own principals* but you can't have your own facts. 

*Or headteacher

[SpectrumFX]

37 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Some people have forgotten that energy can't be destroyed. 

It can be dispersed such that it's irrecoverable or beyond effective use.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe

 

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

It can be dispersed such that it's irrecoverable or beyond effective use.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe

 

If you have no wood, gas or coal to burn its irrelevant, cant sit around a block of granite waiting for the radiation to heat your baked beans.

Pointless chat thats going nowhere.

PS @Stuey I sold some telecom shares today at 9%, beat your 5,65% cash ISA in 24 hours,

[Harley]

I used part of my BTC to buy a Salvadoran passport.  Seemed to work!

Look, I'm a professional.  I buy fag companies but will never smoke again, finance companies although I'll never have a 60:40 or pay high fees, a cinema company even if I'll never watch that woke shite, a cannabis company (er, how did that get in there! ), a sugar company even though I'll never have the stuff in the house, and so on.  Isn't that what's being a professional is all about?!

Edited October 24, 2023 by Harley

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Stuey said:

Some people have forgotten that energy can't be destroyed. 

Please send my electricity supplier an explanation and ask for a refund on my behalf. There's 10% in it for you!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

PS @Stuey I sold some telecom shares today at 9%, beat your 5,65% cash ISA in 24 hours,

That Verizon is another one.  Down on ex div day by far more than that particular div and then a big bounce.  Ok on earnings but the bounce before earnings was plenty big enough. The number of times I missed buying something before ex div day.  I should have been pleased and bought!

[GoneDark]

2 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I didn't want to derail this valuable thread into crypto as there is a subforum for that. Now that we are here I can't resist asking a question which has been on my mind. @DurhamBorn you have always held that cryptos will very likely all go to zero - why is this exactly, especially as your long-established cross-market techniques (excuse me if I'm wrong) pre-date crypto as a factor in the real economy?

I'd be interested in hearing this as well.

I also don't want to derail this thread but a thread favourite, Lyn Alden, has said she can see value in it being a part of someone's portfolio.

In her book she has several chapters on the subject.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, No One said:

And VOD?

They are tricky.They could be the cheapest of them all,but they keep making value destroying errors.The debt load being the big one.Its likely they will sell the Spanish business and if they do they will cut the divi,likely by a third.Im down £7k on VOD £3.5k after divis,but inflation in that time has been around 18% as well,so a terrible performance.Im up across my telco holdings though, mostly due to TEF being such a big holding and well up,Telenor,Turkcell double and sell and  BT 78% up and sell and bought back -2% before a div,up 2% with div.Im still hopefull the sector has a structural undervaluation,but companies really need to lower CAPEX,increase ROCE then pay down leverage.Shareholders seem to of been at the back of the line for their boards,i hope that was just until they got deals from regulators.It should also be noted,if net neutrality is watered down,that might put 25% on the sector and put it in play.

Edited October 24, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I didn't want to derail this valuable thread into crypto as there is a subforum for that. Now that we are here I can't resist asking a question which has been on my mind. @DurhamBorn you have always held that cryptos will very likely all go to zero - why is this exactly, especially as your long-established cross-market techniques (excuse me if I'm wrong) pre-date crypto as a factor in the real economy?

Because my mentor told me they would all go to zero in the end.He had been told this by an old friend very very high up in the US treasury,i have no idea who.I didnt question it,he didnt say it as a conversation starter but as a fact.I can only guess given the contact the government intend to make sure only themselves have digital currency in the end.He could be wrong of course,but its good enough or me.

Edited October 24, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

I see it was reported by some the Office for National Statistics are now using new experimental statistics in the labour market stats at possibly the worse time possible ! Now we get an experimental stats feeding into the Bank of England models.  Oh well at least we get it they don’t want to go above 5.25%.

 

“Because of the increased uncertainty around the Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, today we are publishing an alternative series of estimates of UK employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity as experimental statistics. The experimental figures were derived using growth rates from Pay as You Earn Real-Time Information and the Claimant Count for the periods from May to July 2023 onwards. This is to provide a more holistic view of the state of the labour market while the LFS estimates are uncertain. Unadjusted June to August LFS data are not published. “

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/october2023
 

Its incredible how they think wages are driving inflation when a one year student of macro would spot given the size and scope its bennie and pension increases.Wages lag both and cannot increase enough to compete because the backbone of the economy is not big enough.Our consumption needed to fall by around 25% inflation adjusted or production increase (a mix of both really) but polos have only made working people suffer the loss so its around 50% consumption loss to everyone working or with savings,no loss at all to bennies and public sector pensions.The present policies ensure hyperinflation and nobody working at all in the private sector.Of course its very likely something will change before that,but so far there is nothing.

Edited October 24, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[DurhamBorn]

Best day in 15 years for Verizon,thats what happens when rubber bands are so stretched.I dont think they will fly from here,but a nice 8% div from now and 2% rising to 3% increases might keep capital intact.Also almost free sterling collapsing insurance.

Edited October 24, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[Lightscribe]

So a little context behind my ‘Iran’ escalation thesis 

https://archive.ph/bCefR

[Bobthebuilder]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

That Verizon is another one.  Down on ex div day by far more than that particular div and then a big bounce.  Ok on earnings but the bounce before earnings was plenty big enough. The number of times I missed buying something before ex div day.  I should have been pleased and bought!

Ramones - I Wanna Be Sedated (Official Music Video) - YouTube

 

[PETR4]

4 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Radiation proves you wrong Einstein.

You should write a book, call it "the principal of relative bullshit", or something like that.

Whilst I hate to agree with Stuey, he actually has this.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservation_of_energy

 

[Pip321]

5 hours ago, Stuey said:

Some people have forgotten that energy can't be destroyed. 

4 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

It can be dispersed such that it's irrecoverable or beyond effective use.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe

 

40 minutes ago, PETR4 said:

Whilst I hate to agree with Stuey, he actually has this.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservation_of_energy

 

@SpectrumFXhas it amusingly more accurate……

Energy absolutely cannot be created or destroyed, that’s physics.

However, it can effectively be ‘wasted’ because it isn’t kept in an isolated system…..eg a pendulum wastes its kinetic and potential energy in its swing by dispersing a small amount of heat energy the pendulum hinge emits each swing. That heat isn’t lost but dispersed into the air but is effectively then useless. 

Physics can be fascinating……but not least how anyone could be bothered to spend the time to conceptualise these things through and then conduct experiments to illustrate them. I bet they were fun down the pub explaining their Shinto everyone 😂😂

[Eventually Right]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Because my mentor told me they would all go to zero in the end.He had been told this by an old friend very very high up in the US treasury,i have no idea who.I didnt question it,he didnt say it as a conversation starter but as a fact.I can only guess given the contact the government intend to make sure only themselves have digital currency in the end.He could be wrong of course,but its good enough or me.

Presumably he said this several years ago?  
 

I’m sure he’s right on 99% of cryptos, I’d question Bitcoin itself though. The longer it survives, has ETFs launched for it etc, the harder I think it becomes to ban too many ‘regular’ people holding it in retirement accounts etc-becomes politically toxic.

of course, always a chance the PTB declares Hamas was funded by Bitcoin, and there’s an international ban on it in the west…but I think they’re running out of time if there’s a plan to ban it.

A ban would be nice though-send those degenerate speculators back to where they belong…precious metals 

[Harley]

6 hours ago, Pip321 said:

That heat isn’t lost but dispersed into the air but is effectively then useless. 

Nah, used by air source heat pumps who convert it into noise!

Edited October 25, 2023 by Harley

[wherebee]

5 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

of course, always a chance the PTB declares Hamas was funded by Bitcoin, and there’s an international ban on it in the west…but I think they’re running out of time if there’s a plan to ban it.

A ban would be nice though-send those degenerate speculators back to where they belong…precious metals 

This is one of the double traps for the corrupt leaders in the west now.  If they ban crypto 100%, all of the excess money and the panic money heads where?  Well, a lot into gold and silver.  Which will blow the lid off the corruption in the paper market.  Which will collapse their books.

I see the machinations in the west (not really the west, more like the globalists) turning in on themselves more and more.  Like a serial liar who had to invent more and more complex lies and then it all collapses as complexity becomes too much, the financial shell game, politicial lies, media cover ups, etc etc, are all coming to a head.

Problem is, in their desperation they might do something REALLY fucking stupid which results in nuclear war.