Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 7)

[No One]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Inflation starting to feed into telcos bottom lines now,should be just the start,Verizon first to capture it with big jumps in free cash the market did not expect.Critical they now use the growing free cash to de-leverage then slowly grind the divi up.I got 8.6% yield on them,so i hope they can slowly grow it and de-leverage.I expect BT to explode free cash as well if the polos keep out of it,but from 26 onwards or them.

And VOD?

[Harley]

So all of the three Chinese banks have exited participation in the LBMA gold (and platinum) gold price auction, the auction that sets the price for unallocated synthetic gold, etfs, etc.  Maybe to focus on the physically determined Shanghai gold benchmark?  A geo-political edge?  The Shanghai price premium over the international gold price is currently about 5%.  I never liked ETFs!

[Lightscribe]

4 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Don't agree. There are plenty of opportunities to spend crypto directly now without translating it into fiat first. OK likely for now to be dodgy opportunities like this completely random snip I found with no effort

Nobody is going to track your tiny retail purchase and if you are bothered then there are coins designed to be untraceable.

You can spend crypto on what you like (and keep it wherever you like - on a bit of paper if you want) but the those transactions will always be there for anyone to see. This allows tracking for all manner of reasons, on what your spending and with who.

Yes you can use a privacy currency, but that won’t be allowed in any mainstream uses and just like Tor, they can theoretically be compromised by government agencies, (taking over of nodes etc) or just taken down altogether (like Encrochat was).

Anyone holding for FIAT gain (or just cashing  out) needs to use the on/off ramp exchanges that are all tethered to the KYC regulations. All the wallet details are linked to IDs.

[Red Debt Redemption]

5 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

I have to disagree with you on this @PETR4

Not your maths, that's spot on. In 1804 the World was about to enter the age of the industrial revolution, and the use of new 'energy', Coal, followed by Oil, Gas, Nuclear etc. That enabled that 800% increase in population, and I'm sure the energy use up-tick was many multiples of that 800%.

We've now used up all the easy energy so I disagree that the extra 25% will be less strain, as the planet is already maxed out. Getting that extra 25% is likely very difficult.

Of course if someone can crack replication of the gravitational forces in our local star on planet Earth and get Fusion reactors up and running then we could hit 20 Billion ++++

Planets not maxed out now or you wouldn't be able to increase it any further at the this current moment in time

[Funn3r]

13 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

You can spend crypto on what you like (and keep it wherever you like - on a bit of paper if you want) but the those transactions will always be there for anyone to see. This allows tracking for all manner of reasons, on what your spending and with who.

Yes you can use a privacy currency, but that won’t be allowed in any mainstream uses and just like Tor, they can theoretically be compromised by government agencies, (taking over of nodes etc) or just taken down altogether (like Encrochat was).

Anyone holding for FIAT gain (or just cashing  out) needs to use the on/off ramp exchanges that are all tethered to the KYC regulations. All the wallet details are linked to IDs.

I have a holding of Monero. A few months ago I was warned by the exchange that the FCA had effectively outlawed it in the UK so no more trading for me. The FBI and IRS have issued rewards for information re defeating the privacy. To me that says it must work reasonably well.

I agree it could all be smoke and mirrors and in reality they chuckle as they watch me closely doing stuff under my false illusion that it is none of their business. If I were a drug cartel kingpin doing big things I might be worried but as I am not, I'm not.

If your point is that crypto is hopeless so might as well stop now then no I do not agree with you.

[Lightscribe]

31 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

I have a holding of Monero. A few months ago I was warned by the exchange that the FCA had effectively outlawed it in the UK so no more trading for me. The FBI and IRS have issued rewards for information re defeating the privacy. To me that says it must work reasonably well.

I agree it could all be smoke and mirrors and in reality they chuckle as they watch me closely doing stuff under my false illusion that it is none of their business. If I were a drug cartel kingpin doing big things I might be worried but as I am not, I'm not.

If your point is that crypto is hopeless so might as well stop now then no I do not agree with you.

No it’s not hopeless (My work revolves around the industry) the introduction of ISO 20022 in collaboration with related infrastructure (and tokenised assets and CBDCs) should give an insight to where it’s going (look at my posts over the years).

Encrochat worked extremely well (look it up) doesn’t mean it can’t be curtailed overnight.

[Funn3r]

2 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

No it’s not hopeless (My work revolves around the industry) the introduction of ISO 20022 in collaboration with related infrastructure (and tokenised assets and CBDCs) should give an insight to where it’s going (look at my posts over the years).

Encrochat worked extremely well (look it up) doesn’t mean it can’t be curtailed overnight.

I didn't want to derail this valuable thread into crypto as there is a subforum for that. Now that we are here I can't resist asking a question which has been on my mind. @DurhamBorn you have always held that cryptos will very likely all go to zero - why is this exactly, especially as your long-established cross-market techniques (excuse me if I'm wrong) pre-date crypto as a factor in the real economy?

[Ash4781b]

I see it was reported by some the Office for National Statistics are now using new experimental statistics in the labour market stats at possibly the worse time possible ! Now we get an experimental stats feeding into the Bank of England models.  Oh well at least we get it they don’t want to go above 5.25%.

 

“Because of the increased uncertainty around the Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, today we are publishing an alternative series of estimates of UK employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity as experimental statistics. The experimental figures were derived using growth rates from Pay as You Earn Real-Time Information and the Claimant Count for the periods from May to July 2023 onwards. This is to provide a more holistic view of the state of the labour market while the LFS estimates are uncertain. Unadjusted June to August LFS data are not published. “

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/october2023
 

[Stuey]

57 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Planets not maxed out now or you wouldn't be able to increase it any further at the this current moment in time

Some people have forgotten that energy can't be destroyed. 

[Plan-b]

29 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

I see it was reported by some the Office for National Statistics are now using new experimental statistics in the labour market stats at possibly the worse time possible ! Now we get an experimental stats feeding into the Bank of England models.  Oh well at least we get it they don’t want to go above 5.25%.

 

“Because of the increased uncertainty around the Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, today we are publishing an alternative series of estimates of UK employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity as experimental statistics. The experimental figures were derived using growth rates from Pay as You Earn Real-Time Information and the Claimant Count for the periods from May to July 2023 onwards. This is to provide a more holistic view of the state of the labour market while the LFS estimates are uncertain. Unadjusted June to August LFS data are not published. “

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/october2023
 

(Not you Ash the ONS)

Edited October 24 by Plan-b

[Bobthebuilder]

11 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Some people have forgotten that energy can't be destroyed. 

Radiation proves you wrong Einstein.

You should write a book, call it "the principal of relative bullshit", or something like that.

[Stuey]

2 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Radiation proves you wrong Einstein.

You should write a book, call it "the principal of relative bullshit", or something like that.

You can have your own principals* but you can't have your own facts. 

*Or headteacher

[SpectrumFX]

37 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Some people have forgotten that energy can't be destroyed. 

It can be dispersed such that it's irrecoverable or beyond effective use.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe

 

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

It can be dispersed such that it's irrecoverable or beyond effective use.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe

 

If you have no wood, gas or coal to burn its irrelevant, cant sit around a block of granite waiting for the radiation to heat your baked beans.

Pointless chat thats going nowhere.

PS @Stuey I sold some telecom shares today at 9%, beat your 5,65% cash ISA in 24 hours,

[Harley]

I used part of my BTC to buy a Salvadoran passport.  Seemed to work!

Look, I'm a professional.  I buy fag companies but will never smoke again, finance companies although I'll never have a 60:40 or pay high fees, a cinema company even if I'll never watch that woke shite, a cannabis company (er, how did that get in there! ), a sugar company even though I'll never have the stuff in the house, and so on.  Isn't that what's being a professional is all about?!

Edited October 24 by Harley

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Stuey said:

Some people have forgotten that energy can't be destroyed. 

Please send my electricity supplier an explanation and ask for a refund on my behalf. There's 10% in it for you!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

PS @Stuey I sold some telecom shares today at 9%, beat your 5,65% cash ISA in 24 hours,

That Verizon is another one.  Down on ex div day by far more than that particular div and then a big bounce.  Ok on earnings but the bounce before earnings was plenty big enough. The number of times I missed buying something before ex div day.  I should have been pleased and bought!

[GoneDark]

2 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I didn't want to derail this valuable thread into crypto as there is a subforum for that. Now that we are here I can't resist asking a question which has been on my mind. @DurhamBorn you have always held that cryptos will very likely all go to zero - why is this exactly, especially as your long-established cross-market techniques (excuse me if I'm wrong) pre-date crypto as a factor in the real economy?

I'd be interested in hearing this as well.

I also don't want to derail this thread but a thread favourite, Lyn Alden, has said she can see value in it being a part of someone's portfolio.

In her book she has several chapters on the subject.

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, No One said:

And VOD?

They are tricky.They could be the cheapest of them all,but they keep making value destroying errors.The debt load being the big one.Its likely they will sell the Spanish business and if they do they will cut the divi,likely by a third.Im down £7k on VOD £3.5k after divis,but inflation in that time has been around 18% as well,so a terrible performance.Im up across my telco holdings though, mostly due to TEF being such a big holding and well up,Telenor,Turkcell double and sell and  BT 78% up and sell and bought back -2% before a div,up 2% with div.Im still hopefull the sector has a structural undervaluation,but companies really need to lower CAPEX,increase ROCE then pay down leverage.Shareholders seem to of been at the back of the line for their boards,i hope that was just until they got deals from regulators.It should also be noted,if net neutrality is watered down,that might put 25% on the sector and put it in play.

Edited October 24 by DurhamBorn

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I didn't want to derail this valuable thread into crypto as there is a subforum for that. Now that we are here I can't resist asking a question which has been on my mind. @DurhamBorn you have always held that cryptos will very likely all go to zero - why is this exactly, especially as your long-established cross-market techniques (excuse me if I'm wrong) pre-date crypto as a factor in the real economy?

Because my mentor told me they would all go to zero in the end.He had been told this by an old friend very very high up in the US treasury,i have no idea who.I didnt question it,he didnt say it as a conversation starter but as a fact.I can only guess given the contact the government intend to make sure only themselves have digital currency in the end.He could be wrong of course,but its good enough or me.

Edited October 24 by DurhamBorn

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

I see it was reported by some the Office for National Statistics are now using new experimental statistics in the labour market stats at possibly the worse time possible ! Now we get an experimental stats feeding into the Bank of England models.  Oh well at least we get it they don’t want to go above 5.25%.

 

“Because of the increased uncertainty around the Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates, today we are publishing an alternative series of estimates of UK employment, unemployment, and economic inactivity as experimental statistics. The experimental figures were derived using growth rates from Pay as You Earn Real-Time Information and the Claimant Count for the periods from May to July 2023 onwards. This is to provide a more holistic view of the state of the labour market while the LFS estimates are uncertain. Unadjusted June to August LFS data are not published. “

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/october2023
 

Its incredible how they think wages are driving inflation when a one year student of macro would spot given the size and scope its bennie and pension increases.Wages lag both and cannot increase enough to compete because the backbone of the economy is not big enough.Our consumption needed to fall by around 25% inflation adjusted or production increase (a mix of both really) but polos have only made working people suffer the loss so its around 50% consumption loss to everyone working or with savings,no loss at all to bennies and public sector pensions.The present policies ensure hyperinflation and nobody working at all in the private sector.Of course its very likely something will change before that,but so far there is nothing.

Edited October 24 by DurhamBorn

[DurhamBorn]

Best day in 15 years for Verizon,thats what happens when rubber bands are so stretched.I dont think they will fly from here,but a nice 8% div from now and 2% rising to 3% increases might keep capital intact.Also almost free sterling collapsing insurance.

Edited October 24 by DurhamBorn

[Lightscribe]

So a little context behind my ‘Iran’ escalation thesis 

https://archive.ph/bCefR

[Bobthebuilder]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

That Verizon is another one.  Down on ex div day by far more than that particular div and then a big bounce.  Ok on earnings but the bounce before earnings was plenty big enough. The number of times I missed buying something before ex div day.  I should have been pleased and bought!

Ramones - I Wanna Be Sedated (Official Music Video) - YouTube

 

[PETR4]

4 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Radiation proves you wrong Einstein.

You should write a book, call it "the principal of relative bullshit", or something like that.

Whilst I hate to agree with Stuey, he actually has this.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservation_of_energy