Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 7)

[Loki]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

The Graf expsoing the harsh realities of teh green con.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/02/west-humiliating-electric-car-climbdown-begun/

The West’s humiliating electric car climbdown has begun

Ambitious plans for an electrification-led industrial revolution are in full-scale retreat

France’s President Macron had a plan to make millions of electric vehicles a year. Chancellor Scholz planned to put 15 million on Germany’s roads by 2030. President Biden trumped the lot with a $174bn (£138bn) plan to make the US the world leader. Even Boris Johnson – remember him – had a £1bn plan to beef up our charging network.

Rewind only a couple of years, and almost every president or prime minister was making electric vehicles the cornerstone of an industrial strategy. And yet, this week we have learned that Renault is abandoning plans to separately list its electric vehicle (EV) and software business, while Volvo is winding down its Polestar electric sports car subsidiary.

It looks like all those “well-paid green jobs” are going to take a little longer to arrive than anyone anticipated. As for the payback on huge sums various governments have “invested” in the industry, it looks like the returns on that money will take a while to come through as well.

And yet, right now, plans for an EV-led industrial revolution are in full-scale retreat.

There is nothing wrong with EVs themselves. They are often great as run-arounds for dense urban environments, and as long as the raw materials are sourced correctly, and the chargers are not powered by coal-burning generators, they are probably a little better for the environment than the petrol version.

If people want them, then that’s great. The trouble with the industry right now is that demand is falling because the vehicles cost far more than anyone expected, and what market there is will be captured by Chinese manufacturers such as BYD that can make vehicles far more cheaply than anyone in the West can. The result? A lot of government money will be wasted.

There is nothing wrong with EVs themselves. They are often great as run-arounds for dense urban environments, and as long as the raw materials are sourced correctly, and the chargers are not powered by coal-burning generators, they are probably a little better for the environment than the petrol version.

If people want them, then that’s great. The trouble with the industry right now is that demand is falling because the vehicles cost far more than anyone expected, and what market there is will be captured by Chinese manufacturers such as BYD that can make vehicles far more cheaply than anyone in the West can. The result? A lot of government money will be wasted.

There is a lesson in the humiliating climbdown. State-led industrial strategies never work. Indeed, the failure of the drive into EV is a textbook example of everything that goes wrong.

First, it backs the wrong industries. No one really has any idea what products people might want in five or ten years time, which is why it is best to leave it to private companies and their investors to make their own bets, reap the rewards when they get it right, and bear the losses when they don’t.

Politicians and bureaucrats are no better at making those decisions, as usually a lot worse. Don’t believe me? Just ask consumers. Hertz in the US is disposing of the 20,000 EVs it bought with great fanfare in recent years, and is replacing them with petrol models, due to lack of demand. Over the past year, figures from the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders revealed a steep fall in EV interest from private buyers.

Next, the state over-invests. Even if there is a small market for EVs, there certainly wasn’t space for huge new industries in France, Germany, the US, or in a dozen smaller countries.

There is a lesson in the humiliating climbdown. State-led industrial strategies never work. Indeed, the failure of the drive into EV is a textbook example of everything that goes wrong.

First, it backs the wrong industries. No one really has any idea what products people might want in five or ten years time, which is why it is best to leave it to private companies and their investors to make their own bets, reap the rewards when they get it right, and bear the losses when they don’t.

Politicians and bureaucrats are no better at making those decisions, as usually a lot worse. Don’t believe me? Just ask consumers. Hertz in the US is disposing of the 20,000 EVs it bought with great fanfare in recent years, and is replacing them with petrol models, due to lack of demand. Over the past year, figures from the Society for Motor Manufacturers and Traders revealed a steep fall in EV interest from private buyers.

Next, the state over-invests. Even if there is a small market for EVs, there certainly wasn’t space for huge new industries in France, Germany, the US, or in a dozen smaller countries.

Finally, it distorts the market with subsidies. Governments start out spending a few billion on new EV factories, then they have to start subsidising the EVs so that people actually buy them, then they have to impose tariffs and quotas to stop imports from countries where other government have invested too much.

Markyboy on life support

[Bien Pensant]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Reading Atlas Shrugged and, for all of her undoubted faults, Rand certainly saw to the heart of the matter.

"When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing - When you see that money is flowing to those who deal, not in goods, but in favors - When you see that men get richer by graft and by pull than by work, and your laws don’t protect you against them, but protect them against you - When you see corruption being rewarded and honesty becoming a self-sacrifice - You may know that your society is doomed."

 

Is there a more perfect description of Britain?

Probably my favourite passage:

So he had to beg in public for relief from his needs, like any lousy moocher, listing all his troubles and miseries, down to his patched drawers and his wife's head colds, hoping that 'the family' would throw him the alms. He had to claim miseries, because it's miseries, not work, that had become the coin of the realm - so it turned into a contest among six thousand panhandlers, each claiming that his need was worse than his brother's. How else could it be done?

Do you care to guess what happened, what sort of men kept quiet, feeling shame, and what sort got away with the jackpot?

Edited February 3 by Bien Pensant

[Lightscribe]

Oh look those darn pesky Iranians have gone and wiped Albania’s census data dammit.

Now we won’t be able to account for where they all are…what a bummer.

We better democracy bomb a few more targets in retaliation just for good measure.

Edited February 3 by Lightscribe

[Lightscribe]

Is that you @Loki? 

Edited February 3 by Lightscribe

[Cattle Prod]

6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

There is a lesson in the humiliating climbdown. State-led industrial strategies never work. Indeed, the failure of the drive into EV is a textbook example of everything that goes wrong.

I say this to my colleagues who are trying to “transition” (see what I did there 🤭) to CCS and I think I’ve said it here too: it’s not a real business if it needs government support or mandates. If it was any good (like LED lightbulbs for example) the market will rapidly roll it out for you. I remember saying it about BP and their green transition in 2020 - not a real business, and your shareholders will punish you for it. Which they are. Well done Telegraph, get it out there.

[Cattle Prod]

23 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Clearly the demand is there for the product, but it seems from the above that production may not be financially viable.

Great post LS nice bit of sleuthing. That’s a head scratcher and worth thinking about…what has gotten so expensive for them that they can’t produce a tub of salt that’s selling for £50? It wouldn’t be labour or raw materials, msybe the production line is worn out and they decided to not replace it? Maybe can’t get the machined parts for it now Germany is powering down and China is expensive? I’m guessing here but it’s pointing toward something important missing in British manufacturing supply chain.

[wherebee]

36 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I say this to my colleagues who are trying to “transition” (see what I did there 🤭) to CCS and I think I’ve said it here too: it’s not a real business if it needs government support or mandates. If it was any good (like LED lightbulbs for example) the market will rapidly roll it out for you. I remember saying it about BP and their green transition in 2020 - not a real business, and your shareholders will punish you for it. Which they are. Well done Telegraph, get it out there.

the only time state lead strategies work is wartime, when you need to throw a million darts at a wall in order to make a picture, and lose a lot of money doing so, because if you don't the other person wins and you die.

although the chinese model is kind of working - tell the banks where to lend (this year, semiconductor startups, next year, kite designers, year after, fishing pole inventors) and then the market picks the winners.

[Cattle Prod]

45 minutes ago, wherebee said:

e only time state lead strategies work is wartime, when you need to throw a million darts at a wall in order to make a picture, and lose a lot of money doing so, because if you don't the other person wins and you die.

That’s true, and I’d argue it works because the state gets flooded by private sector practices and people as the economy goes on a war footing. You can see the weak leaders being pushed aside pretty rapidly due to the urgency of the matter. Generals and admirals got rapidly tried out and fired till you got a good one, the sclerotic statist bureaucrat types are kicked out. Same goes for processes, I can imagine the pre war “state procurement department” being burnt to the ground on day 1. The state was also much smaller and less interfering pre WWII too, even if they had a hand in say getting Spitfires built, they let the geniuses and entrepreneurs get on with it.

I can hear them now saying “what do you mean a Merlin engine burns out after 300 hours, we can’t afford/sanction/approve/tolerate that are you insane?? Give us a slower one that lasts 5000 hours”. If you’ve ever heard one of those beauties (I get them flying over my house during air show season) you’ll be glad they didn’t. 

[Long time lurking]

4 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Oh look those darn pesky Iranians have gone and wiped Albania’s census data dammit.

Now we won’t be able to account for where they all are…what a bummer.

We better democracy bomb a few more targets in retaliation just for good measure.

There`s a huge MEK? (might have the wrong group) US backed terrorist training base in Albania ,there have also been reports of significant attacks by ISIS on the Iraqi resistances forces that have been targeting US bases in Iraq and Syria 

The mask is off now 

[Long time lurking]

Interest rates have nothing to do with fighting inflation ,it`s all about the $ now 

 

[Pip321]

39 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

Interest rates have nothing to do with fighting inflation ,it`s all about the $ now 

 

You are wrong….its never been so good. Start watching Bloomberg then it all makes sense.

 

 

[Lightscribe]

I don’t know about anyone else, but I think this clip alone of this spectacular example of a ‘shower of cunts’ wheeled out to be all in one place is enough to convince even the hardest of skeptics that it was all bollocks.

Edited February 3 by Lightscribe

[M S E Refugee]

10 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

I don’t know about anyone else, but I think this clip alone of this spectacular example of a ‘shower of cunts’ wheeled out to be all in one place is enough to convince even the hardest of skeptics that it was all bollocks.

He didn't seem to have any Black friends did he?

He had plenty with Black Souls through.

[ThoughtCriminal]

3 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

He didn't seem to have any Black friends did he?

He had plenty with Black Souls through.

One thing I can say with certainty is that everyone at that funeral lives in the whitest areas imaginable whilst urging everyone else to stop being racist and embrace vibrant diversity.

 

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

That’s true, and I’d argue it works because the state gets flooded by private sector practices and people as the economy goes on a war footing. You can see the weak leaders being pushed aside pretty rapidly due to the urgency of the matter. Generals and admirals got rapidly tried out and fired till you got a good one, the sclerotic statist bureaucrat types are kicked out. Same goes for processes, I can imagine the pre war “state procurement department” being burnt to the ground on day 1. The state was also much smaller and less interfering pre WWII too, even if they had a hand in say getting Spitfires built, they let the geniuses and entrepreneurs get on with it.

 

I read this book many years ago and it was life changing in some respects.Dixon analysed great war time leaders eg Wellington and looked at what allowed thenm to be greatHe also looked at the crap ones-Redvers Buller in the Boer war,Percival at SIngapore etc etc and worked out why they were crap.

Bascia conclsuions from memory were that good war time leaders

1) were able to take constructive critiscsim

2) were able to tkae on board bad news and assimialte reality into their plans

3) were charismatic,popular with troops and cared for troops.

bad leaders ended up

1) not being told bad news or opinions they didnt want to hear leading to various disasters eg singapore 1942

2) were authoritarian because they didnt necessarily have the charisma to get people to follow them

 

overall he pointed out exactly what you've put forward,ie that during peacetime the military gets the sort of politcal leaders who are no good in wartime.

Worth stressing that this book is 30 years old and the paperbacks are still worth £5...indeed,a rupert I once knew

World of Books-ThePsychology of MIlitary Incompetence by Norman Dixon

 

Wiki says it was 1978.Incredible that its still selling.....I suspect Putin has a copy,Xi as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norman_F._Dixon

Australian armys take

https://cove.army.gov.au/article/psychology-military-incompetence

Dr Norman Dixon, MBE is the author of On the Psychology of Military Incompetence a well known book which analyses military incompetence through numerous case studies and historical examples. The author argues that there are special reasons for studying cases of military ineptitude, including:

• Military organisations may have a propensity for attracting a minority of individuals who might prove a menace at high levels of command.
• The nature of the military serves to accentuate those very traits which may ultimately prove disastrous.
• The public has some say as to who should make its political decisions. This control does not apply to generals. We may have governments we deserve - but we sometimes had military minds which we did not.
• The decision pay-off is significant. A bad decision by a company Board of Directors may cost a great deal of money and depress a sizable population of shareholders, but military errors may cost hundreds of thousands of lives.

The first half of the book is concerned with case studies and examples of military ineptitude over a period of more than 100 years. The second half of the book is devoted to discussion and explanation on the social psychology of military organisations, and the psychopathology of individual commanders.

 

Edited February 3 by sancho panza

[Ash4781b]

4 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I say this to my colleagues who are trying to “transition” (see what I did there 🤭) to CCS and I think I’ve said it here too: it’s not a real business if it needs government support or mandates. If it was any good (like LED lightbulbs for example) the market will rapidly roll it out for you. I remember saying it about BP and their green transition in 2020 - not a real business, and your shareholders will punish you for it. Which they are. Well done Telegraph, get it out there.

I’m not that sold on LED lighting. When driving I see lots of blue hue from car lights  , and mis aligned headlights. council led lights where I am are illuminating under the light but the beam seems very focused. Probably council skimped out. I was under the impression optics and heat sinks  needed to be better designed for LED lights. Also on colour temperature it’s better than it was, and the same for reliability which used to be dire in my experience ! Convince me though because on a pure paper energy saving would go LED every time!

 

 

Edited February 3 by Ash4781b

[Axeman123]

4 hours ago, wherebee said:

the only time state lead strategies work is wartime, when you need to throw a million darts at a wall in order to make a picture, and lose a lot of money doing so, because if you don't the other person wins and you die.

although the chinese model is kind of working - tell the banks where to lend (this year, semiconductor startups, next year, kite designers, year after, fishing pole inventors) and then the market picks the winners.

The key thing is that wartime is (usually) finite.

The Soviet Union initially industrialised at an unprecedented rate, as "savings" were very efficiently directed to policy objectives ("Savings" in this context being surplus retained by the state, rather than retained by private individuals). Where it all fell down was once the old industrial investments started wearing out and needing reinvestment for no new productive capacity. Capitalist nations gain through market signals driving efficiencies etc enabling investments to become economically self-sustainaing, whereas centrally planned ones don't and hence need to continually feed centrally controlled capital in. There was more to it than just that of course; western propaganda sucessfully redefined freedom as the access to consumer goods, the cold war was very expensive for both sides, and of course centrally planned economies always spawn a priviledged class and personal empire-building.

Central planning and capital allocation can move mountains over a couple of decades or similar, with proper goals set, but longer-term only market forces can drive sustainable progress. The trap is that once the genie is out of the bottle the temptation not to put it back is huge. Singapore is probably the only nation to suceed so far.

The 21st century will be seen as the century defined by many countries attempts to leverage the power of centralised capital allocation without falling into the traps of the Soviet Union. Dubai is doing just that with its oil wealth directed by medieval absolute monarchy to try and replicate Singapore. China rapidly industrialised in the late 20th century but never made the switch to a market economy, and is now sliding into the same end-stage economic sickness as the west having speed-run the "western 20th century" experence in around a quarter of that time. Even QE etc in the west could be seen in this light, the difference being that the goals pursued were the creation of a woke "church" to revival the size and wealth of the Catholic Church at its peak (literally a gay and retarded version).

[Formerly]

1 hour ago, Ash4781b said:

I’m not that sold on LED lighting. When driving I see lots of blue hue from car lights  , and mis aligned headlights. council led lights where I am are illuminating under the light but the beam seems very focused. Probably council skimped out. I was under the impression optics and heat sinks  needed to be better designed for LED lights. Also on colour temperature it’s better than it was, and the same for reliability which used to be dire in my experience ! Convince me though because on a pure paper energy saving would go LED every time!

 

 

I use them professionally (less so now than in previous roles). Low volume, high value products. Never had an LED fail completely. Products on market for >10 years and some in use many hours per day. As you say, you do need to design well for heatsinking and wide viewing angles rely on a well designed bank or diffusers.

[Long time lurking]

It`s going to be interesting next week

 

[Long time lurking]

 

[Long time lurking]

5 hours ago, wherebee said:

although the chinese model is kind of working - tell the banks where to lend (this year, semiconductor startups, next year, kite designers, year after, fishing pole inventors) and then the market picks the winners.

This is exactly why China has achieved what it has in such a short time ,and the last last six words is when the western china experts start shouting China is collapsing as there will always be looser`s ,when in reality the winners buy those assets for penny's in the pound and become stronger 

[Long time lurking]

I can remember people telling me that Americans are loaded 

[Joncrete Cungle]

3 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

I can remember people telling me that Americans are loaded 

Having a second or third job is not uncommon amongst lower paid Anericans who don't qualify for bennies.

[spunko]

Part 8 is getting underway here: