Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 7)

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Hang on, I'll give him a shout..... @Mandalorian!!!!

I am genuinely considering putting my BATS divis into the SP500.

[honkydonkey]

6 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Would you eat meat prepared by a vegan restaurant? Will vegans be so keen to eat in a vegan restaurant that also serves meat?

Close the business before creditors do it for you.

It's not a vegan restaurant surely?

[Cosmic]

7 hours ago, montecristo said:

Rachel Reeves commits to keep corporation tax at 25%.  But it is all good she says, as committing to 25% gives businesses confidence

 

Confident I'll be managing profit this year to be just enough to cover our divis to take us to the higher rate threshold. Rest will be contributions directly in to our pensions. 

[honkydonkey]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Bayer at 28 now. 

Getting scary. It's make or break time.

It could go to 20 but I'm closing out at 24 and walking away ready to fight another day.

Remember it's at times of extreme pessimism you want to be in. 

Edited February 1 by honkydonkey

[Errol]

3 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

Getting scary. It's make or break time.

It could go to 20 but I'm closing out at 24 and walking away ready to fight another day.

Remember it's at times of extreme pessimism you want to be in. 

I'm just watching to see how low it gets. Definitely interested for the long term provided Germany survives.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Bayer at 28 now. 

I've got that in my watchlist of first mention in here as 21st Aug 2019, now -60% since then.

[Harley]

49 minutes ago, honkydonkey said:

Getting scary. It's make or break time.

It could go to 20 but I'm closing out at 24 and walking away ready to fight another day.

Remember it's at times of extreme pessimism you want to be in. 

I like to get in just before the price goes up.  The Bayer chart is a very simple read.  Not even like some German majors with a pop but then fizzle out.

Oddly, I hear the DAX is at an ath.  Needs a look to see what's been working so well versus these dogs.

Edited February 1 by Harley

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Hang on, I'll give him a shout..... @Mandalorian!!!!

Have you done the total return calc?  Positive or negative?  Could you have made more buying on the ex div date and selling on the pop?

[Democorruptcy]

10 minutes ago, Harley said:

Have you done the total return calc?  Positive or negative?  Could you have made more buying on the ex div date and selling on the pop?

I haven't done any calcs on the gambling involved re Ex-Divi day, when the capital was taken from shareholders, then returned today.

[Chewing Grass]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/26/ftse-100-markets-news-latest-lvmh-bernard-arnault-us-pce/

Electric car maker Polestar plans to cut around 450 jobs globally as it grapples with “challenging market conditions”.

The Swedish company said the job cuts, amounting to about 15pc of its workforce, would be accompanied by a doubling down on cost cutting in an effort to boost margins.

More bizarrely interesting details on this one.

Now remember Volvo Cars is owned by Geely.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volvo_Cars

Polestar is owned by Volvo Cars, who are owned by Geely.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polestar

Now Volvo Cars says it can't afford to fund Polestar so it is giving it to Geely who already own it in reality.

https://www.gbnews.com/lifestyle/cars/major-car-brand-polestar-volvo-electric-vehicle-sales

Yet Polestar Sales are going up and Volvo is going nowhere.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I like to get in just before the price goes up.  The Bayer chart is a very simple read.  Not even like some German majors with a pop but then fizzle out.

Oddly, I hear the DAX is at an ath.  Needs a look to see what's been working so well versus these dogs.

The DAX includes dividends.

[Ash4781b]

4 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/nationwide-raises-mortgage-prices-bank-150924484.html

Nationwide raises mortgage prices as Bank of England holds interest rates

I wonder if this will ripple accross other lenders...?

Wait a minute they just made a fanfare the last week. A bit worrying to be honest at what is going on over at the Nationwide. I guess it’s a market. Not sure if the Bank of England shot down any rate cut talk for 2024. Probably worried about national living wage rises coming in April 24. I will read it later. Bet they said inflation will rise later in the year 😂 

“Speaking to Newspage, Justin Moy, managing director of broker EHF Mortgages, noted that the speed of Nationwide’s rise was a stark contrast to its relative lateness to cut rates this year when hopes of interest rate cuts were growing.”

 

https://amp.theguardian.com/money/2024/jan/23/nationwide-intensifies-mortgage-price-war-with-its-lowest-rates-for-8-months

 

[Harley]

22 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The DAX includes dividends.

Why are you being silly?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

6 minutes ago, Harley said:

Why are you being silly?

https://capital.com/dax-everything-you-need-to-know-about-leading-indices

Two versions and one includes reinvested dividends.

[ThoughtCriminal]

Let's all do our surprised face. 😑

[Castlevania]

26 minutes ago, Harley said:

Why are you being silly?

The Krauts like to be difficult 

7 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Let's all do our surprised face. 😑

I was told he was a man from Newcastle 

Edited February 1 by Castlevania

[Mandalorian]

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Hang on, I'll give him a shout..... @Mandalorian!!!!

Still celebrating them giving your own money back to you I see

[Mandalorian]

12 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

Lobbying for a base rate cut from journos has started, desperate for cheaper mortgages. Of course, their narrative a year ago when base rates hit 4% was stop  now, because by February 2024 we will be in deflation. They were 100% wrong.  We are 4% up on the CPI measure and 21% up over 3 years. If you lose faith in  money, you lose faith in everything, Latin American style. But heck all that matters are journos mortgages and a resumption of hpi. Fuck the integrity of and trust in money.

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/the-bank-of-england-has-failed-it-must-urgently-lower-interest-rates-b1136092.html

Heard one on Sly Views today asking the Governor of the BoE when interest rates would go back to normal.

Erm.  They have done already...

[ThoughtCriminal]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

The Krauts like to be difficult 

I was told he was a man from Newcastle 

Gets better. He was convicted of sexual assault (suspended sentence naturally), was then granted asylum AFTER the sexual assault conviction, and then looked after by a "charity" that's received 1.5 million from the government over four years. So we're paying taxes to look after subhumans that shouldn't even be here. 

 

When you realise your governing class actively despise you, everything makes a lot more sense.

 

Edited February 1 by ThoughtCriminal

[Mandalorian]

11 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I read somewhere that acid reflux is caused by a lack of stomach acid.

Hence the reason for not properly digested food coming back up into the oesophagus.

Obviously diet is the number one factor in having the optimum amount of stomach acid to deal with the food you eat.

I used to have chronic reflux.  GP put me on Omeprazole.

New GP said it was time to come off them.  Wittered something about kidney damage if on them long term.

 

He said the proton pump inhibitors like Omeprazole are actually counter productive as they reduce production of acid.

If the stomach doesn't produce enough acid then the lower oesophageal sphincter remains open and what acid is there can leak upwards into the oesophagus causing heartburn and ultimately Barret's Oesophagus and cancer.

 

Advice was to reduce the dose over a few weeks and then stop taking them - but I would get CHRONIC unrelentless heartburn and reflux for about a month.  So eat Rennies and drink Gaviscon - but see it through and I would be fine.

I've not taken Omepraxole for more than 5 years now.  Occasional bit of acid (Gavison maybe twice a month) but not like it was.

 

[Mandalorian]

9 hours ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

If we had a free press they would point this out. All the policies of the last 20 years are a massive failure for the British worker. They don't even need to dig into post tax income. The figures are almost as bad for pre-tax income.

You do have a free press.

It's just staffed by people who are in the metropolitan liberal elite.

They could point this out.  They just choose not to.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

6 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Gets better. He was convicted of sexual assault, suspended sentence naturally, and then looked after by a "charity" that's received 1.5 million from the government over four years. So we're paying taxes to look after subhumans that shouldn't even be here.

 

When you realise your governing class actively despise you, everything makes a lot more sense.

 

I hope someone checks who receives the rents this charity pays to see if they're linked to the charity.

[SpectrumFX]

3 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

I used to have chronic reflux.  GP put me on Omeprazole.

New GP said it was time to come off them.  Wittered something about kidney damage if on them long term.

 

He said the proton pump inhibitors like Omeprazole are actually counter productive as they reduce production of acid.

If the stomach doesn't produce enough acid then the lower oesophageal sphincter remains open and what acid is there can leak upwards into the oesophagus causing heartburn and ultimately Barret's Oesophagus and cancer.

 

Advice was to reduce the dose over a few weeks and then stop taking them - but I would get CHRONIC unrelentless heartburn and reflux for about a month.  So eat Rennies and drink Gaviscon - but see it through and I would be fine.

I've not taken Omepraxole for more than 5 years now.  Occasional bit of acid (Gavison maybe twice a month) but not like it was.

 

I used to pop zantac like smarties.

Then I went on some sort of health kick where I started drinking probiotic yogurts everyday. A couple of months later I'd stopped taking the zantac.

I didn't actually make the connection between the two until I got chatting to a chemistry professor at a barbecue. Over the course of quite a long drunken conversation I happened to mention both facts (I'm a laugh a minute at parties!), and he pointed out that it would have been the probiotics that stopped me needing the zantac.

 

[Mandalorian]

4 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

I used to pop zantac like smarties.

Then I went on some sort of health kick where I started drinking probiotic yogurts everyday. A couple of months later I'd stopped taking the zantac.

I didn't actually make the connection between the two until I got chatting to a chemistry professor at a barbecue. Over the course of quite a long drunken conversation I happened to mention both facts (I'm a laugh a minute at parties!), and he pointed out that it would have been the probiotics that stopped me needing the zantac.

 

Didn't Zantac/Ranitidine get banned because of some link to cancer or something?

[Yadda yadda yadda]

1 minute ago, Mandalorian said:

You do have a free press.

It's just staffed by people who are in the metropolitan liberal elite.

They could point this out.  They just choose not to.

Who owns the press? Who funds the press now that few people buy newspapers? The press isn't fully free because the advertisers would boycott anything against the establishment line. The press would be free to publish that information but they wouldn't because it would damage their business model and go against their owners interests. During the COVID debacle they were directly restricted by OFCOM.

Agree that the staff overwhelmingly come from the metropolitan liberal scum class, clearly this is an important factor. Elite implies status deserved so I don't like using that. Lionel Messi is an elite footballer, I can't think of an elite journalist unless you include an Australian currently in Belmarsh. Scruples go out of the window when money is at stake. I have no doubt that many journalists who regard themselves as right thinking would write hard right material if the cash was coming in. There is simply no cash for that in the media as the right wing papers are fake right wing full of misdirection.