Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 7)

[montecristo]

6 hours ago, wherebee said:

holding a speculative asset such as a BTC ETF in a superannuation or pension fund could be a high risk, high rewards strat.  We've written before on here how the roadmap for pensions is either have no pension, so you can get the gvt benefits and pension credit, or a massive massive pension pot.  Worst of all worlds will be having a pension pot big enough to bar you from all the freebies whilst still making you poor.

Stick it all in a BTC ETF?  Goes to the moon, you buy an island.  Goes to zero, you're no worse off than having a shitty pot which means you get nothing else from the state?

Interesting tweet.

 

"Blackrock estimates that $200 billion dollars will flow into Bitcoin from Blackrock's iShares ETF (ticker iBTC) and others in the first 3 years. That amount of demand, if spread evenly over 3 years would come to $183m per day excluding all other sources of demand. Multiply $183m by 193 and the Bitcoin market cap grows by $35 billion dollars per day. In terms of price, that would be about $1700 of price appreciation per BTC, per day. After 3 years, the BTC price would be over $2,000,000 from spot ETF demand alone."

 

[jamtomorrow]

1 hour ago, montecristo said:

Interesting tweet.

 

"Blackrock estimates that $200 billion dollars will flow into Bitcoin from Blackrock's iShares ETF (ticker iBTC) and others in the first 3 years. That amount of demand, if spread evenly over 3 years would come to $183m per day excluding all other sources of demand. Multiply $183m by 193 and the Bitcoin market cap grows by $35 billion dollars per day. In terms of price, that would be about $1700 of price appreciation per BTC, per day. After 3 years, the BTC price would be over $2,000,000 from spot ETF demand alone."

 

"Ok, I've been doing some math"

Oh dear. A sentence you'll often see from so-called influencers, just before they soil themselves in public. And that there was some heavy soiling.

I do agree with the general idea that Bitcoin eventually goes to either 0 or 1 - it either takes over almost completely or it disappears almost completely. The rules of the game mean there can be no middle ground of co-existence.

Beyond that, who knows - it's all new. Allocate accordingly

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, montecristo said:

Interesting tweet.

 

"Blackrock estimates that $200 billion dollars will flow into Bitcoin from Blackrock's iShares ETF (ticker iBTC) and others in the first 3 years. That amount of demand, if spread evenly over 3 years would come to $183m per day excluding all other sources of demand. Multiply $183m by 193 and the Bitcoin market cap grows by $35 billion dollars per day. In terms of price, that would be about $1700 of price appreciation per BTC, per day. After 3 years, the BTC price would be over $2,000,000 from spot ETF demand alone."

 

There's the pump......

[headrow]

Looking at the standout performers in my portfolio for income and capital growth it is the ones that were bought to provide an income stream rather than make me rich  have performed the best over the past decade. I never really took much notice of market cap but the ones with the highest are the ones still in the blue when I log in my account.

Unilever , SSE , National Grid , Aviva , L&G , BP , Shell , United Utilities , Tesco , Sainsbury , HSBC and DS Smith. All these have done the heavy lifting for me , provided great revenue streams and have left my initial investment whole.

 

I spread myself too far and wide with smaller investments in smaller companies when looking back I'd have been better going all in on the ones in the FTSE with he biggest market caps. I'm still way in front but I could have done so much better. 

My risk appetite was far too high and I hope to learn from it.

 

 

[desertorchid]

53 minutes ago, headrow said:

Looking at the standout performers in my portfolio for income and capital growth it is the ones that were bought to provide an income stream rather than make me rich  have performed the best over the past decade. I never really took much notice of market cap but the ones with the highest are the ones still in the blue when I log in my account.

Unilever , SSE , National Grid , Aviva , L&G , BP , Shell , United Utilities , Tesco , Sainsbury , HSBC and DS Smith. All these have done the heavy lifting for me , provided great revenue streams and have left my initial investment whole.

 

I spread myself too far and wide with smaller investments in smaller companies when looking back I'd have been better going all in on the ones in the FTSE with he biggest market caps. I'm still way in front but I could have done so much better. 

My risk appetite was far too high and I hope to learn from it.

 

 

Can relate to this but if you have been looking for returns for well over a decade you have had to be creative with your choices. It has been hard graft. Less so now. I have had many regrettable daliances into more exotic investments including the world of p2p. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

9 hours ago, lid said:

Yep the go big or go home strategy for those of us late into the investing game makes logical sense to me. There's no way the government's taking me for a cunt I'm gonna lose my 40k fun money on my own terms first and claim pension credits or rob a post office if I end up in old age penury 

I wouldn't even call it high risk if you've only got a moderate amount to spunk. Either you win big and live the George Best high life or you lose your moderate amount and join the rest of the Herberts on pension credits in Wetherspoons on a Monday morning at 10am for a warm and a half of bitter 

 

 

Seems like an honest bloke. I think I'll liquidate all my investments and wire them over. This time next century I'll be a trillionaire!

[M S E Refugee]

Gold is having another go at $2000.

 

[Pip321]

39 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Seems like an honest bloke. I think I'll liquidate all my investments and wire them over. This time next century I'll be a trillionaire!

Me too. 😆

I am a BTC sceptic but absolutely understand the maths at play here in terms of explanation of a ‘what if’ scenario.

But the fundamental question is whether BTC is an asset/store of wealth…to be an asset it must be adopted….to be adopted it needs more advocacy and that’s what we see here. 

The ‘just 1%’ is an issue too…..I think Rio is going to the moon so everyone on the planet needs to buy some of the limited number of Rio shares out there, guess what…the price goes to the moon and I sail away in my new yacht  

So I guess my biggest concern with BTC is like with Rio….there are alternatives, and if there aren’t yet there might be in the future  

Now it may well be BTC ends up being the ultimate world currency but it also may be replaced with unique ‘unable to replicate’ 21 million Bazooka Joe Coins

So the enthusiasm and explanation in the video just encourages me to invest more and more in tangible things that I know can’t be printed or just made eg copper, oil, iron, wheat, gold, silver, white dog turds😉.

Time will tell….maybe this BTC needs separate thread 😆😆😳

Edited October 26, 2023 by Pip321

[Harley]

5 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Gold is having another go at $2000.

 

Great.  Let's not forget silver!

Edited October 26, 2023 by Harley

[M S E Refugee]

Even though we are at all-time highs in Sterling, I'm continuing to accumulate Gold, I just have a feeling that the price in Fiat is largely irrelevant due to the massive amounts of debt.

Normally I would baulk at buying any at the highs.

[NogintheNog]

21 hours ago, Stuey said:

23 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

So @Stuey can you tell us how we get that 'disorganised energy' of heat in the atmosphere back. I'm assuming that's the point you were making?

The sun is providing us useful heat and light all the time. Our CO2 release allows plants to grow from it and be eaten by animals (yumm yumm). 🐄

That's not really answered the question though has it @Stuey?

The fact is that we loose our energy production to heat, and we can't get it back. We are struggling to replace that 'front end' energy that supports our way of life.

[NogintheNog]

22 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

23 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

One of the problems with Gold and Silver is people don't want to have the risk of the physical storage. Throughout history Decentralized Bearer Assets such as Gold and Silver have been stolen in heist after heist!

But I'd like someone to explain to me why you would hold a paper Bitcoin ETF when you can just hold Bitcoin?

The thesis is that BTC will explode higher, as it will be ‘viewed’ as a legitimate asset.

A regulated approved ETF will can then be fractioned off into mainstream funds, and boomers (who don’t know how to buy or set up wallets) can buy via their regular broker. 

Basically widening the range of access into the older generations (where all the stored wealth is) will send BTC on a bull run.

I agree with this thesis, just not sure that boomers fully understand what Bitcoin is, so wonder whether they will pile in!

Anyone that does understand Bitcoin will just buy bitcoin.

The fees on the Greyscale Btc Trust are 2%. Why would you do that????

https://www.grayscale.com/crypto-products/grayscale-bitcoin-trust#section3866

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/galaxy-digital-bitcoin-etfs-could-051353776.html

Edited October 26, 2023 by NogintheNog

[NogintheNog]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

So I guess my biggest concern with BTC is like with Rio….there are alternatives, and if there aren’t yet there might be in the future

Rio Tinto mines commodities such as Iron Ore, Copper etc and as you say so do the alternatives, Anglo American, Glencore, BHP to name a few they are all digging up the same stuff.  Only the Bitcoin network can mine Bitcoin. There are already hundreds of alternatives to Bitcoin, and not one of them has displaced Btc. Any features they introduce will just get incorporated into the Btc Network which is where the real value lies.

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

Now it may well be BTC ends up being the ultimate world currency but it also may be replaced with unique ‘unable to replicate’ 21 million Bazooka Joe Coins

Gold is the only real alternative.

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

So the enthusiasm and explanation in the video just encourages me to invest more and more in tangible things that I know can’t be printed or just made eg copper, oil, iron, wheat, gold, silver, white dog turds😉.

Can't disagree with that. I'm long on quite a few dogs miners.

[NogintheNog]

3 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

"Ok, I've been doing some math"

Oh dear. A sentence you'll often see from so-called influencers, just before they soil themselves in public. And that there was some heavy soiling.

I do agree with the general idea that Bitcoin eventually goes to either 0 or 1 - it either takes over almost completely or it disappears almost completely. The rules of the game mean there can be no middle ground of co-existence.

Beyond that, who knows - it's all new. Allocate accordingly

 

“I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.”

— Satoshi Nakamoto

 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

Even though we are at all-time highs in Sterling, I'm continuing to accumulate Gold, I just have a feeling that the price in Fiat is largely irrelevant due to the massive amounts of debt.

Normally I would baulk at buying any at the highs.

I would guess that's where the psychology of the market is and has been since it started bumping it's head back in 2020. Which could make the eventual breakout something to behold.

 

[Butthead]

This last week it really has felt like something big is about to happen. Yields and debt levels are rising together, economies faltering, gold and BTC rising, lots of bad news everywhere. Things could get very interesting!

But equally, they might not.

Around 2011/2012 there was a lot of similar chat to now. Gold and silver were rising, and the non-mainstream talking heads were on about unsustainable debt, dollar collapse, "Ben Bernanke is clueless" etc. Then we had a decade of economic expansion (blowing the 'everything bubble' if you prefer) and benign economic conditions. Anyone who in 2012 retreated to their bunker to fondle their Krugerrands lost out.

I really hope that this is the big one, and I've tried to prepare as best I can, but I'm not banking on it. I will still add to normal investments and to cash savings in the months ahead, and would warn anyone against getting swept up in any excitement and making any big bets or irreversable decisions. Stay diversified people!

[Axeman123]

8 hours ago, lid said:

Colombo was bitcoin, Poirot was crypto

That is an odd analogy IMO, the Poirot novels were decades old before the Colombo TV show was created. Poirot is still getting adaptations etc over a century after the character's first appearance. Colombo had a good run in the 70s, and then a so-so revival with the same lead in the 90s. Apart from that it has essentially vanished without a trace, and doesn't even lend itself to a remake. Firstly the character is a cop, but isn't gritty or tortured by demons from his past. Even if they made him a divorced alchoholic wog to be on trend just the character name is "problematic" due to being similar to Christopher Colombus.

8 hours ago, lid said:

VHS was bitcoin, Betamax was crypto.

Betamax was the technically superior format, and had first mover advantage. The deciding factor was the initial assumption at the conception of Betamax was that people would record TV programs and only need shorter tapes. Interestingly Betamax was originally proposed as an industry standard format, and the disagreement over max tape length led to the breakaway VHS format. Once rival VHS format started offering longer tapes use cases like movie rentals and pornography, that hadn't even been considered previously, became key to the purchase decision and Betamax withered away.

Not being an arse here, but that history turns your analogy on its head: Betamax was BTC, and VHS was crypto.

8 hours ago, lid said:

The Beatles were bitcoin, the Stones were crypto.

Fuck the beatles!

[Axeman123]

3 hours ago, headrow said:

My risk appetite was far too high and I hope to learn from it.

This last decade has favoured approaches that might not be so lucky in the next cycle.

I would be very wary of learning the wrong lessons.

6 hours ago, montecristo said:

"Blackrock estimates that $200 billion dollars will flow into Bitcoin from Blackrock's iShares ETF (ticker iBTC) and others in the first 3 years.

Blackrock talking up their product with fantasy numbers - any projection that starts from there is spurious IMO.

1 hour ago, NogintheNog said:

The fees on the Greyscale Btc Trust are 2%. Why would you do that?

Currently the only way to access within a US pension, also trades at a discount to NAV so if it ever converts to an ETF there is an immediate gain.

I wouldn't, but I can see an arguement for it.

 

[kibuc]

5 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

"Ok, I've been doing some math"

Oh dear. A sentence you'll often see from so-called influencers, just before they soil themselves in public. And that there was some heavy soiling.

I see it often on mintwit, usually followed by some guy claiming enterprise value of the company to be the in-situ value of metal in the ground.

"Ok, I've been doing some math and Unmineable Gold And Silver have 3Mil AuEq in the ground. At 2k gold the company is worth 3Mil * 2k = 6Bil US, or xyz per share"

Meanwhile, the deposit is 0.08 gpt Gold, 2 gpt Silver and 0.13% Copper some 700m underground, in a hardrock mountain at 6km above sea level. Production costs would be around 25k US per oz Au, if it wasn't for that fact that the whole thing sits on the border of a Native First Yeti Nation Untouchable Reserve and the Cutthroat Cocaine Rapist Cartel territory.

Edited October 26, 2023 by kibuc

[Funn3r]

Rare visit to the office this morning and now side trip to the chain pub I used to go in a lot.

Mostly empty of real people. Desperate decorations to make it look Halloween Spooky. Fat shaz taking a break from Netflix to bring her kids to run riot. Fat shaz even more layers of makeup friend and kids at next table. Why do I even. This is not an economy.

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Rare visit to the office this morning and now side trip to the chain pub I used to go in a lot.

Mostly empty of real people. Desperate decorations to make it look Halloween Spooky. Fat shaz taking a break from Netflix to bring her kids to run riot. Fat shaz even more layers of makeup friend and kids at next table. Why do I even. This is not an economy.

You love it sir, get in there and buy em a burger or 5.

[Stuey]

18 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

Rare visit to the office this morning and now side trip to the chain pub I used to go in a lot.

Mostly empty of real people. Desperate decorations to make it look Halloween Spooky. Fat shaz taking a break from Netflix to bring her kids to run riot. Fat shaz even more layers of makeup friend and kids at next table. Why do I even. This is not an economy.

It'll be packed with Bennie families 4pm-6pm as scummy mummy doesn't want to cook. Again..

[Onsamui]

Mercantilism V Consumerism – China’s Direction | Armstrong Economics

[Majorpain]

26 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

You love it sir, get in there and buy em a burger or 5.

Lets be honest, with the assortment of Benefits on offer he probably already has, whether he likes it or not!

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Someone in Germany has made an unpleasant phone call to the Government asking for bennies.