Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 7)

[JMD]

6 hours ago, Jay said:

Not sure about that…bloke called Newton..did a bit physics and wrote about gravity..he made money and sold out and got greedy and bought and lost it in the south sea bubble..what goes up…he was also in charge of the royal mint..probably could a few good tales about coin clipping, how he lost it all..I would buy him a drink to hear such tales..not confident I wouldn’t laugh at him when he finished..

Yep, Newton invented the Universal Gravitational Constant, but curiously thought it didn't apply to his own stocks?!  ...Ok I'm probably poking fun at him unfairly, because I've certainly made similar mistakes. However i'm not sure he'd have any entertaining tales to tell you from his time served at the Royal Mint - apparently he was quiet a strange and very disagreeable chap.

Edited October 25, 2023 by JMD

[Pip321]

Few mentions on here about losses....sentiment is a funny thing. I try to think of it as two types of investments when I buy (at the moment ie pre BK) and there are 2 choices. 

1) I buy and check in every few months and ignore the noise because Telecoms, PMs etc, run up and down like a tarts pants. Examples for me like that are Blackrock Gold and GJGB which I bought and almost ignore. 

2) Others I buy and watch it like a hawk....and if it rallies I sell but only with a view of buying it back cheaper because I am invested in that company.  The reason I do this is this market and this macro is leading into such difficult times if I end up losing out on a rally I can live with that. Whereas those investments in option 1, I feel I cant afford to lose out if they rise...so with those I am turning a blind eye to short term moves.

I don't buy anything just with a view to trade in case I am left something I didn't want. 

So likely I will sell personal favourite Rio tomorrow because it has rallied. Apparently 2/3 days ago Rio and Iron was crap....now its wonderful. Such a fickle market....

I have had a look at my Rio trades and effectively allowing for costs I am up about £9 a share....I sit on that gain and will then try buy back at £48 and count that as a share cost £39 (ie £48 - £9), lather rinse repeat. I visualise the price like this because I am invested in Rio as a long term hold rather than trading ie I hold Rio but try churn it a bit to make it feel cheaper

Now as it happens if they rally to £60 after I sell (which they normally do after I sell the fuckers)...I will cry a bit but  will try remember current market conditions and I am trying to protect wealth and not build it. 

I hold Fres (I know, I know...I just like toothless Mexicans) and I am currently down 25% on my last buy. However due to previous trades I am up about 50p a share overall even now.

I have lost out on some shares...BAT dropped as soon as I touched it, so laddered in again and it decided to kick me in the nuts a bit more (down overall about 10%). Now I see this as a long term hold savings account where the capital fluctuates as I collect my dividend.  And if it happens to rally and I am up say 10% on my original purchase I might trade it because again its a fickle market. I class this as a long term hold but not currently one to trade because I am at a loss 

All this ignores dividends....I consider that at the moment (unscientifically) as just keeping par with interest this money would have earned in the bank 

All nonsense I guess....but helps me manage sentiment when the chips are down 😉

 

Edited October 25, 2023 by Pip321

[Axeman123]

3 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Few mentions on here about losses....sentiment is a funny thing.

I remember a prior period on here with similar sentiment, and shortly after everyone was all smiles again as thread recomendations started to run. Fingers crossed we are near to a repeat.

[Democorruptcy]

Just had a friend of a friend proudly displaying her £25k mini convertible that's she got on Motability, after sending the electric car back because of a lack of charging places. I don't know if the 22 reg electric car will be farmed out to another on Motability or the scheme takes a hit on the loss from new when selling it.

[Lightscribe]

On 23/10/2023 at 18:05, Stuey said:

Yields have peaked imo and getting above 5.25% really is a bonus. That 5.65% will be gone soon. 

Just for you

[Lightscribe]

 

💥

Edited October 25, 2023 by Lightscribe

[Stuey]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

Just for you

Yields are collapsing 

 

Edited October 25, 2023 by Stuey

[Lightscribe]

26 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Yields are collapsing 

 

Of course the UK will go against the grain as we are are such a economic superpower 

 

[Stuey]

3 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Of course the UK will go against the grain as we are are such a economic superpower 

 

Why is our ten year lower then bruv? 

[Lightscribe]

2 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Why is our ten year lower then bruv? 

It’s a lag not a lead

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, Stuey said:

Why is our ten year lower then bruv? 

Because the number is fewer

[Tingles]

27 minutes ago, Loki said:

Because the number is fewer

I salute you sir, and your undiminished intolerance for fuckwits.  Bravo!

[RupertT]

There's a suggestion in the Telegraph today that an incoming Labour government would extend the scope of VAT to the current exempt or reduced rate items to fund more welfare state handouts.  Possibly with real time exemptions for the less well paid so that they don't have to pay VAT (I can't see any UK government being able to set up the technology though)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/labour-vat-tax-expansion-fund-welfare-state/

It could be a fantasy article, but it's one way of continuing to turn the screw on the few remaining net taxpayers.

 

[wherebee]

13 hours ago, Harley said:

I can't say it enough.....

RISK!

Apples and oranges!  Different risk profiles.  BATS is simply more risky overall.  Both as an equity asset class and as a company.  You need to compare risk adjusted returns using reasonable individual risk scores.

By all means include in a portfolio but at an overall weighted adjusted risk that is appropriate for you.   One you ain't going to cry about.  For example, a capital preserver may cry about an irretrievable loss while an accumulator may cry about the loss as an opportunity (capital gain or compounding).

We use a very aggressive minimum 2% risk premium for equity and that's on the div element only and for sound companies.  We do own a bit of BATS though!

PS:  "You" = IMO everyone!

I think anyone who thinks money in a bank is risk free hasn't been paying attention.

One reason that I moved to buy a house when I did was fear that the substantial balance we had saved would be bailed in in a bank collapse - and that was years ago!

[wherebee]

9 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

One advantage would be that you could hold it in an ISA or SIPP for the tax advantages.

holding a speculative asset such as a BTC ETF in a superannuation or pension fund could be a high risk, high rewards strat.  We've written before on here how the roadmap for pensions is either have no pension, so you can get the gvt benefits and pension credit, or a massive massive pension pot.  Worst of all worlds will be having a pension pot big enough to bar you from all the freebies whilst still making you poor.

Stick it all in a BTC ETF?  Goes to the moon, you buy an island.  Goes to zero, you're no worse off than having a shitty pot which means you get nothing else from the state?

[Loki]

1 minute ago, wherebee said:

 enough to bar you from all the freebies whilst still making you poor.

After living that for all of our working lives, it won't come as a shock at least

Edited October 25, 2023 by Loki

[geordie_lurch]

43 minutes ago, RupertT said:

There's a suggestion in the Telegraph today that an incoming Labour government would extend the scope of VAT to the current exempt or reduced rate items to fund more welfare state handouts.  Possibly with real time exemptions for the less well paid so that they don't have to pay VAT (I can't see any UK government being able to set up the technology though)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/labour-vat-tax-expansion-fund-welfare-state/

It could be a fantasy article, but it's one way of continuing to turn the screw on the few remaining net taxpayers.

CBDCs are designed to be able to do that sort of stuff i.e fully programmable and discriminatory based on the politics of the week so let's hope TPTB don't make their wet dreams a reality

Edited October 25, 2023 by geordie_lurch

[The Grey Man]

50 minutes ago, RupertT said:

There's a suggestion in the Telegraph today that an incoming Labour government would extend the scope of VAT to the current exempt or reduced rate items to fund more welfare state handouts.  Possibly with real time exemptions for the less well paid so that they don't have to pay VAT (I can't see any UK government being able to set up the technology though)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/tax/labour-vat-tax-expansion-fund-welfare-state/

It could be a fantasy article, but it's one way of continuing to turn the screw on the few remaining net taxpayers.

 

The fuckers will make any rule to nick your money/assets.

I hate to quote the the programme of propaganda, so I won't.

Nothing ends untill they, the Uniparty ends.

As they have far more resources, I would advocate any allocation of resources into my favourite colour. Grey.

Off the books. Easy to store.

The Real emergency stash.

[lid]

1 hour ago, wherebee said:

holding a speculative asset such as a BTC ETF in a superannuation or pension fund could be a high risk, high rewards strat.  We've written before on here how the roadmap for pensions is either have no pension, so you can get the gvt benefits and pension credit, or a massive massive pension pot.  Worst of all worlds will be having a pension pot big enough to bar you from all the freebies whilst still making you poor.

Stick it all in a BTC ETF?  Goes to the moon, you buy an island.  Goes to zero, you're no worse off than having a shitty pot which means you get nothing else from the state?

Yep the go big or go home strategy for those of us late into the investing game makes logical sense to me. There's no way the government's taking me for a cunt I'm gonna lose my 40k fun money on my own terms first and claim pension credits or rob a post office if I end up in old age penury 

I wouldn't even call it high risk if you've only got a moderate amount to spunk. Either you win big and live the George Best high life or you lose your moderate amount and join the rest of the Herberts on pension credits in Wetherspoons on a Monday morning at 10am for a warm and a half of bitter 

 

 

Edited October 25, 2023 by lid
Yolo init

[lid]

If you look to history things emerged and ended up the top dogs.eg The Beatles were bitcoin, the Stones were crypto. VHS was bitcoin, Betamax was crypto.  McDonald's was bitcoin, Burger King was crypto, Colombo was bitcoin, Poirot was crypto, Rocky was Bitcoin, Apollo Creed was crypto etc 

The idea being always back the winner

 

 

[lid]

Long story short, in an increasingly fucked up world look after your loved ones your nearest and dearest nothing else matters 👊

[lid]

The USA debt went up by something hilarious like $500b in the last month

The annual USA defence budget is $700b

The bullshit fiat monetary system is disintegrating before our eyes 

Please read the above figures and realise it's all turning to absolute shit and we are run by criminals. 

Grab a parachute

[wherebee]

1 minute ago, lid said:

The USA debt went up by something hilarious like $500b in the last month

The annual USA defence budget is $700b

The bullshit fiat monetary system is disintegrating before our eyes 

Please read the above figures and realise it's all turning to absolute shit and we are run by criminals. 

Grab a parachute

500-600 million USD PER DAY is being added to the national debt.  And that does not include promises unfunded.

Think of that.

 

Meanwhile, Australia just gave 12 million of kit to the Ukraine.  Shows you how much our pollies really think of that fight 

[lid]

This is why I drink 

Edited October 26, 2023 by lid
Ha

[Harley]

5 hours ago, wherebee said:

I think anyone who thinks money in a bank is risk free hasn't been paying attention.

One reason that I moved to buy a house when I did was fear that the substantial balance we had saved would be bailed in in a bank collapse - and that was years ago!

Yes but come on, a bit of an extreme comparison.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Harley
Found the right/better words