Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 7)

[Red Debt Redemption]

3 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

 

BTC acting as expected. Again problem is here is ‘off-ramps’. If governments turn around with a similar ban on gold like they have in the past, there’s no hiding transactions (unless swapping it for privacy currency) or cashing it in. That’s why they’ve allowed it. 

Come on Argo blockchainnnnn back to £2.40 for top gambler to dump. 

[ThoughtCriminal]

Bullish.........

[Bobthebuilder]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Portfolios and/or more generally?

You summed it up perfectly in a post yesterday about marching up hills, only to be told to march down again.

And when they were up they were up, and when they were down they were down, and when they were only half way up they were neither up nor down.

[Pip321]

St James Place share price taking a battering but to be fair so have many asset managers.

Interestingly it has suspended trading in its property fund too……looks like the illiquid nature of commercial property may catch up with these funds  

https://www.cityam.com/st-jamess-place-suspends-property-fund-as-investors-pull-cash-and-demand-falls/

As I say, many asset managers have been hit with withdrawals as seemingly investors are moving to cash or at least safer shores……if we do have a BK there will be a lot of cash on the sides which will then want somewhere to go. I imagine the jolt back up will be very volatile and changeable….interesting times.

None of this alters the thread but it’s interesting to see the moves, news and waves that occur as things unfold back and forth. 

[jamtomorrow]

15 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

None of this alters the thread but it’s interesting to see the moves, news and waves that occur as things unfold back and forth. 

I'm not so sure about the bit in bold - we muse much on this thread about the direction and magnitude of future jolts, when the real story might be the increasing "joltiness" of the system's behaviour

[DurhamBorn]

51 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

I'm not so sure about the bit in bold - we muse much on this thread about the direction and magnitude of future jolts, when the real story might be the increasing "joltiness" of the system's behaviour

Its very very difficult at the moment thats or sure.It does feel like this cycle has something else running inside it,a huge change.I think its the we are going to use less,but the huge problem is so far government is protecting all those on their tit so smashing the private sector worker and saver.Im slowly adding to stocks i feel should give a positive return by the later part of the cycle,i added a few moe BT yesterday.A huge problem i see though is polos coming after anyone who makes a profit.Labour will want more and more for the state,and they will love to blame "fat cats".I said before,imagine BT put up the divi 17% over two years,there would be screams of shocking,tax them hard etc,yet that is what every retired public sector has had increase on their unfunded pensions.The theft is incredible,and thats the biggest risk i see,them taking everything.

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

St James Place share price taking a battering but to be fair so have many asset managers.

Interestingly it has suspended trading in its property fund too……looks like the illiquid nature of commercial property may catch up with these funds  

https://www.cityam.com/st-jamess-place-suspends-property-fund-as-investors-pull-cash-and-demand-falls/

As I say, many asset managers have been hit with withdrawals as seemingly investors are moving to cash or at least safer shores……if we do have a BK there will be a lot of cash on the sides which will then want somewhere to go. I imagine the jolt back up will be very volatile and changeable….interesting times.

None of this alters the thread but it’s interesting to see the moves, news and waves that occur as things unfold back and forth. 

I think the sector needs to merge down,but nothing yet,lets see if one happens.

Edited October 24, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[MooVin]

My unbeloved ‘Macbeth, shares are currently up 114% since I got them…

[geordie_lurch]

4 minutes ago, MooVin said:

My unbeloved ‘Macbeth, shares are currently up 114% since I got them…

I should have held onto them for more profits like my Rolls Royce ones but just wanted my cash back quickly Reminds me of this

Edited October 24, 2023 by geordie_lurch

[NogintheNog]

17 hours ago, PETR4 said:

Population is expected to top out in 2090 at just over 10 billion people. I personally think the strain of an extra 2 bn on top of the 8bn we already have will be a lot less than the strain on the planet from 1804 when we hit 1bn, as it's a 25% increase versus an 800% increase!

I have to disagree with you on this @PETR4

Not your maths, that's spot on. In 1804 the World was about to enter the age of the industrial revolution, and the use of new 'energy', Coal, followed by Oil, Gas, Nuclear etc. That enabled that 800% increase in population, and I'm sure the energy use up-tick was many multiples of that 800%.

We've now used up all the easy energy so I disagree that the extra 25% will be less strain, as the planet is already maxed out. Getting that extra 25% is likely very difficult.

Of course if someone can crack replication of the gravitational forces in our local star on planet Earth and get Fusion reactors up and running then we could hit 20 Billion ++++

[Funn3r]

6 hours ago, wherebee said:

This.

 

Most normos have sucked up the propaganda that bitcoin and other ecoins are loved by criminals and impossible to trace.  Nothing could be further from the truth - without extensive planning, very trackable indeed.  The reason crims love them is that cross border wealth transfer is easy, meaning that law enforcement has a shit job getting information from other countries.

 

For the average Joe stuck in loserville USA, bitcoin is as dangerous for hiding activity as putting your drug money straight into a checking account.

Don't agree. There are plenty of opportunities to spend crypto directly now without translating it into fiat first. OK likely for now to be dodgy opportunities like this completely random snip I found with no effort

Nobody is going to track your tiny retail purchase and if you are bothered then there are coins designed to be untraceable.

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Orange juice up 400% since 2020. Where was the macro work on this from @DurhamBorn

Fuck you DB 🤣

I just asked the AI bot to explain my motives for investing in orange juice in 2020. At first it wouldn't pretend for me but after clicking summarize a few times, the gullible thing thinks I really did it now.

 

Democorruptcy invested in orange juice in the commodities market in 2020 to gain significant profits due to projected supply shortages, increasing demand, and undervalued conditions.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Verizon 🚀🚀🚀

[leonardratso]

6 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

Verizon 🚀🚀🚀

must be somehow linked to drax

 

[Chewing Grass]

4 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

must be somehow linked to drax

 

Hugo or the Power Station?

[leonardratso]

4 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Hugo or the Power Station?

same thing isnt it?

[Errol]

Strong Q3 results for Verizon.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

It does feel like this cycle has something else running inside it,

Or it itself is running inside something bigger!  I'm very tempted to largely pull out of the whole s-show.  It all just feels high risk atm.  Draconian war economy inbound?  Cyber shutdowns followed by "computer says no" and so on?  Am I losing the central ground or am I being a realist?  A coin toss atm.

Edited October 24, 2023 by Harley

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, Harley said:

  A coin toss atm.

VAT, CGT and counter party risk free, at least 

[Harley]

32 minutes ago, Loki said:

VAT, CGT and counter party risk free, at least 

It's becoming bloody obvious to me lately.  People consuming crap media because the real life pace is not fast enough to satisfy their desire to sit and watch rather than go off and do something more useful. 

Look at the war threads, and that's just us lot!  Finance is the same.  So hard to sit on your hands and give it just enough (and no more) consistent attention to spot the big stuff when it happens. 

I should have done what I intended and spent 10 minutes buying BTC at the weekend.  I was probably picking over the war threads instead! 

It's our human character. 

Just updated our schedules.  All that PM gain from just patiently sitting there.  Beats all the hard work rest.  We're moths to the flame. 

Time for the final piece of decomplex - myself!

PS:  This 1970s strapline keeps ringing in me head: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_Don't_You%3F, not that I ever watched it.

Edited October 24, 2023 by Harley

[DurhamBorn]

Inflation starting to feed into telcos bottom lines now,should be just the start,Verizon first to capture it with big jumps in free cash the market did not expect.Critical they now use the growing free cash to de-leverage then slowly grind the divi up.I got 8.6% yield on them,so i hope they can slowly grow it and de-leverage.I expect BT to explode free cash as well if the polos keep out of it,but from 26 onwards or them.

Edited October 24, 2023 by DurhamBorn

[No One]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Inflation starting to feed into telcos bottom lines now,should be just the start,Verizon first to capture it with big jumps in free cash the market did not expect.Critical they now use the growing free cash to de-leverage then slowly grind the divi up.I got 8.6% yield on them,so i hope they can slowly grow it and de-leverage.I expect BT to explode free cash as well if the polos keep out of it,but from 26 onwards or them.

And VOD?

[Harley]

So all of the three Chinese banks have exited participation in the LBMA gold (and platinum) gold price auction, the auction that sets the price for unallocated synthetic gold, etfs, etc.  Maybe to focus on the physically determined Shanghai gold benchmark?  A geo-political edge?  The Shanghai price premium over the international gold price is currently about 5%.  I never liked ETFs!

[Lightscribe]

4 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Don't agree. There are plenty of opportunities to spend crypto directly now without translating it into fiat first. OK likely for now to be dodgy opportunities like this completely random snip I found with no effort

Nobody is going to track your tiny retail purchase and if you are bothered then there are coins designed to be untraceable.

You can spend crypto on what you like (and keep it wherever you like - on a bit of paper if you want) but the those transactions will always be there for anyone to see. This allows tracking for all manner of reasons, on what your spending and with who.

Yes you can use a privacy currency, but that won’t be allowed in any mainstream uses and just like Tor, they can theoretically be compromised by government agencies, (taking over of nodes etc) or just taken down altogether (like Encrochat was).

Anyone holding for FIAT gain (or just cashing  out) needs to use the on/off ramp exchanges that are all tethered to the KYC regulations. All the wallet details are linked to IDs.

[Red Debt Redemption]

5 hours ago, NogintheNog said:

I have to disagree with you on this @PETR4

Not your maths, that's spot on. In 1804 the World was about to enter the age of the industrial revolution, and the use of new 'energy', Coal, followed by Oil, Gas, Nuclear etc. That enabled that 800% increase in population, and I'm sure the energy use up-tick was many multiples of that 800%.

We've now used up all the easy energy so I disagree that the extra 25% will be less strain, as the planet is already maxed out. Getting that extra 25% is likely very difficult.

Of course if someone can crack replication of the gravitational forces in our local star on planet Earth and get Fusion reactors up and running then we could hit 20 Billion ++++

Planets not maxed out now or you wouldn't be able to increase it any further at the this current moment in time