Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 7)

[DurhamBorn]

Well an interesting year,tough early but finished very well for most of our areas.Navigated things well i would say.Hopefully the roadmap is right and EMs start to run up and we outperform this year,they did well the last month.Thanks to the posters on here for the low carb/barbell advice etc.Started the year at 14s 4llb blood pressure 165/100 and a gut getting very flabby.Ended it at 12s 4llb muscles growing,down to 16%/18% bodyfat area,looking sharp and feeling very fit and much stronger and blood pressure 130/82,blood sugar perfect etc.Aim this year is add 5llb+ more muscle lose 5llb+ more fat once i have and keep the weight between 12s4 and 12s8 .Low carbs and a bar really are amazing.

I think this year will be Asian in many ways and im looking forward to it.Happy Christmas to you all ,healthy ,happy and increasing capital new year,and if i go missing at any point i will be in a spa some where,do not look for me

"he not here"

[M S E Refugee]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Sorry, no pics allowed.

Absolutely not surprised by the damp problem.

A limecrete floor done right will pass the thermal regs (if applicable) and should provide a dry base. 

The project started as a radon fan install.  The fan adds to the dryness, the glapor sub base being brilliant for this (especially versus rammed earth).

Could lose a few flags too but for me, the flags were large so could be cut down.

Hacking off cement based render can be a bitch and sometimes is best left alone. 

You'll also likely need to re-render/bag in lime as the underneath may look shite, either due to the render or 'cause that's how it was built (i.e. done shite as always intended to be rendered).

Also a render/bag coat will help prevent water ingress into the reveals, etc through small gaps you'll never be able to seal.

Any questions.....

I wish I had discovered Peter Ward before I bought my House, it would have saved me a few Grand after being conned into some Tanking and Woodworm treatment.

https://www.heritage-house.org/damp-and-condensation/managing-damp-in-old-buildings.html

Damproofers are the greatest scammers in the building trade, I don't know whether its malevolence or genuine ignorance with them.

[MrFanciful]

I find Richard Vobes a bit hit and miss but he actually links to the government legislation on this one.
 

Councils haven't been producing the legally required letter from the court when sending bailiffs to peoples homes for none payment of council tax. A court has ruled that this was illegal and awarded the claimant £4000+ in damages. This could mean that a lot of the No Win No Fee law firms have a new target as I I would imagine that a lot of people who had the bailiffs come round, weren't shown the court letter and won't have one on file. These bankrupt councils might have even less money now.

Edited December 24, 2023 by MrFanciful
Typo

[Hunty]

14 hours ago, ashestoashes said:

it's going to be a disaster - 2030s until HPC gets going if ever, what fun

With build costs rising. Ever increasing people looking for a roof. I think in the NW they've gotten away with it. Static nominal values. Falling real values when costing in rebuild cost increases. A little whiff of hpc in 2008 then gone in a puff of smoke. Can't talk about the rest of the UK but if you can find a place in the NW with not too much to spruce up. Then it is how it is. If I compare like for like NW to Midlands £40k in 1995. NW is £120k Midlands is £180k. I bet darn sarth it's a bigger margin.

[ashestoashes]

1 minute ago, Hunty said:

With build costs rising. Ever increasing people looking for a roof. I think in the NW they've gotten away with it. Static nominal values. Falling real values when costing in rebuild cost increases. A little whiff of hpc in 2008 then gone in a puff of smoke. Can't talk about the rest of the UK but if you can find a place in the NW with not too much to spruce up. Then it is how it is. If I compare like for like NW to Midlands £40k in 1995. NW is £120k Midlands is £180k. I bet darn sarth it's a bigger margin.

Hinckly Point C, lol

[Funn3r]

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My friend was really upset about it as she wants to bring in several new Thai girls,but they need to find some sucker to marry them first and keep them sweet for 4 years until they get right to remain and at £38k it was going to be a lot harder to do it.She will be very happy they can still convince fat Barry from stores on £28k the stunner from Isaan on Soi 6 really does love him.

I am completely clueless about anything Thai, except that their curries always have those disgusting baby corn cobs which I can't stand. So had to do some research on "Soi 6" and here it is for anyone similarly Thai-challenged 

[Alifelessbinary]

The Investment Trust Handbook 2024 has just been released as a free download. Something to read in the New Year.

https://www.harriman-house.com/ithb2024

Quite a few are on chunky discounts to NAV, Im going to review and maybe have a little punt on some of the better run Private Equity offers, as some have been trashed by the shift in interest rates with discounts over 60%. I just need to check they have at least some liquidity in their holdings as otherwise they’ll continue to suffer.

Happy Christmas all, let’s hope some of the rubber bands snap back in 2024 and you’re all lucky with your allocations.

[MrFanciful]

2 hours ago, MrFanciful said:

I find Richard Vobes a bit hit and miss but he actually links to the government legislation on this one.
 

Councils haven't been producing the legally required letter from the court when sending bailiffs to peoples homes for none payment of council tax. A court has ruled that this was illegal and awarded the claimant £4000+ in damages. This could mean that a lot of the No Win No Fee law firms have a new target as I I would imagine that a lot of people who had the bailiffs come round, weren't shown the court letter and won't have one on file. These bankrupt councils might have even less money now.

Ignore my last post. Vobes was incorrect...again

[Transistor Man]

17 hours ago, ashestoashes said:

it's going to be a disaster - 2030s until HPC gets going if ever, what fun

They’ve messed this up so badly it’s breathtaking.
All the SMR waffle is not helping. 
The Koreans have built 4 nuclear power plants in UAE starting 2012, now all generating. 

[Harley]

3 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I wish I had discovered Peter Ward before I bought my House, it would have saved me a few Grand after being conned into some Tanking and Woodworm treatment.

https://www.heritage-house.org/damp-and-condensation/managing-damp-in-old-buildings.html

Damproofers are the greatest scammers in the building trade, I don't know whether its malevolence or genuine ignorance with them.

100%.  Same here to my newly bought gaff many years ago which set me on a path to where I now am.  Old ways for old buildings. Lime, etc.

They tanked my gaff when I first started and I just knew it was wrong.  Ripped off about £1,500 of work.  It had been there six months with me debating.  The damp and smell behind it was all I needed to know.

Even the modern stuff was shite done by a firm of recommended builders. 

I decided to become a good one then.  A new lease of life for an old dog who hadn't learnt anything new nor interesting for years.

[Harley]

Been batch cooking(*) blaukraut, swede chips, and broccoli soup while listening to some podcasts.  On a break with some proper festive pork pie!

A cracker from Adam Taggart (and Lance) on Thoughtful Money, his new podcast which is turning out to be really good.  Adam has this way I like.

Talk about reflection, sadly enhanced by the somewhat surprised death of his father.  Some great reflections with Lance at the end (more like the middle and end!) after the usual top market analysis and investing advice from Lance. 

Liked the bit about having to be uncomfortable - thought about how that sat with @DurhamBorn and how it explains his large annual massage bill!  

The whole thing was a good example of converting negative into positive energy.  Some great things out of something sad.

(*) Using up all that lovely 15p veg from Tescos and now Aldi!

Edited December 24, 2023 by Harley

[Sasquatch]

4 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

Any pics?

I'm thinking about trying the same, removing the concrete floor in my Cottage as its causing all manner of damp problems.

I'm hoping to remove the cement render from my Gable end and replace with Lime render next year.

Concrete and Cement are a disaster for old properties.

Our house was properly damp when we bought it. Has had two pointless damp proof course treatments in the last 30 years (we have the certificates with our deeds). Nearly all of the inappropriate internal cement render removed, concrete floors up and replaced with limecrete and outside pavings lowered to original Georgian levels. House is now damp free and a lovely place to be.

[Harley]

7 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Our house was properly damp when we bought it. Has had two pointless damp proof course treatments in the last 30 years (we have the certificates with our deeds). Nearly all of the inappropriate internal cement render removed, concrete floors up and replaced with limecrete and outside pavings lowered to original Georgian levels. House is now damp free and a lovely place to be.

Yep, you guys may have made some stupid investments in your time but be content you have never been so stupid as to inject damp proofing into a rubble wall!   

Edited December 24, 2023 by Harley

[Mandalorian]

On 21/12/2023 at 17:22, Democorruptcy said:

Well that @Mandaloriancharacter has given you investing saps a right belly punch and upper cut today. He's going to be bouncing tonight. He tried to warn you that your pocket would be picked last night. You just wouldn't listen!! BATS closed last night at £23.36 but opened today at £22.77 on a dull FTSE day that couldn't save your capital. That's 59p of your capital swiped overnight for a 57.72p dividend on 1st Feb. Aye there will be purring in here about another juicy dividend being paid but he knows it's just your own capital being returned. There can be NO DENIAL.

* This is not investment advice. Investments can go up or down. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

Some don't want to believe it, but those who of us know have the last laugh.

[DurhamBorn]

25 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Some don't want to believe it, but those who of us know have the last laugh.

GEC grew a big cash pile instead of divis in a steady away business and they used it to buy a load of over priced rubbish companies breaking the company.Greggs using money to open a new bakery to supply a new area is different to BAT buying up some company in an area they dont understand.The whole question is not black and white and is all part of the process.If BAT cut divis in half to use the cash for areas they are not in i would sell my holding.Its a none argument,some companies are better using cash to grow,some better using cash to give to shareholders.Even the growth companies are really valued on what investors expect to be paid in dividends at some point,its just they push the date a long way out.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Been batch cooking blaukraut, swede chips, and broccoli soup while listening to some podcasts.  On a break with some proper festive pork pie!

A cracker from Adam Taggart (and Lance) on Thoughtful Money, his new podcast which is turning out to be really good.  Adam has this way I like.

Talk about reflection, sadly enhanced by the somewhat surprised death of his father.  Some great reflections with Lance at the end (more like the middle and end!) after the usual top market analysis and investing advice from Lance. 

Liked the bit about having to be uncomfortable - thought about how that sat with @DurhamBorn and how it explains his large annual massage bill!  

The whole thing was a good example of converting negative into positive energy.  Some great things out of something sad.

I intend it to be larger this year  

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Yep, you guys may have made some stupid investments in your time but be content you have never been so stupid as to inject damp proofing into a rubble wall!   

Bought a Victorian terrace once with a £12k retention for damp. £12k was the rentokil quote which convinced the original buyer not to proceed and I used it to negotiate the agreed price. 

We dug the tiny front yard down 5 inches, cleared the air bricks, went under the floorboards (nice 4 foot void to crawl under) and opened up gaps that had been blocked with mud and clay in the middle walls and opened up the vents in the rear that had been cemented up. We removed all the silver foil off the bays (front and back) which was hidden under the wall paper. I remember feeling the wind blowing through the underfloor when we finished. 

The house stank of damp for about 4 days…..and then the whole place was bone dry thereafter.😉

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Bought a Victorian terrace once with a £12k retention for damp. £12k was the rentokil quote which convinced the original buyer not to proceed and I used it to negotiate the agreed price. 

We dug the tiny front yard down 5 inches, cleared the air bricks, went under the floorboards (nice 4 foot void to crawl under) and opened up gaps that had been blocked with mud and clay in the middle walls and opened up the vents in the rear that had been cemented up. We removed all the silver foil off the bays (front and back) which was hidden under the wall paper. I remember feeling the wind blowing through the underfloor when we finished. 

The house stank of damp for about 4 days…..and then the whole place was bone dry thereafter.😉

Yep, I did the same on my current house. 90% of damp that comes up on a survey is condensation.

[Mandalorian]

On 21/12/2023 at 18:49, Lightscribe said:

 

Let’s look at the historical chart of the last few years. If that theory was correct we’d see a constant downward direction

"+/- market noise"

BTW.   That trend looks rather downwards to me....

On 21/12/2023 at 18:04, Plan-b said:

Cheers! - BATS went Ex-dividend today so no surprise really 

Someone gets it.

[Mandalorian]

On 21/12/2023 at 20:15, nirvana said:

ah yes BUT it was only down 46p at close lol..

There's your market noise.

[Mandalorian]

On 21/12/2023 at 20:54, DurhamBorn said:

That one divi is 20 x 90 minute Thai spa sessions on its own.I dont care where it comes from,but i sure know where its going 

Could have sold 2.5% of your holding and had the same effect though.

[Mandalorian]

On 22/12/2023 at 12:26, Loki said:

The government gets the first round of 'spending power' when currency is issued.  The plebs end up with the worthless paper/digits 

The Cantillon* Effect.

How to make money?  Watch what those closest to the money supply do with their capital and follow.

 

Could update and call it the Pelosi Effect.

[Mandalorian]

On 22/12/2023 at 17:50, Loki said:

 

When did they carve a Lincoln Memorial for Biden?

[Mandalorian]

52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

GEC grew a big cash pile instead of divis in a steady away business and they used it to buy a load of over priced rubbish companies breaking the company.Greggs using money to open a new bakery to supply a new area is different to BAT buying up some company in an area they dont understand.The whole question is not black and white and is all part of the process.If BAT cut divis in half to use the cash for areas they are not in i would sell my holding.Its a none argument,some companies are better using cash to grow,some better using cash to give to shareholders.Even the growth companies are really valued on what investors expect to be paid in dividends at some point,its just they push the date a long way out.

That's nothing to do with dividends.

The moral of this GEC story is don't buy shit companies.

[MrXxxx]

Just a quick end of year thank you to all of those  who have contributed some interesting conversations this year, especially the pension ones that I had with @Frank Hovis et al [Note, conversations NOT advice!], and @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker; not for his stock picking 'tips' but for his ability to take so much 'stick'/banter from me with such good humour!

Hope 2024 is financially fruitful for all, and as an aside, 'A man with a dog' has told me that PFC [Macbeth 2?] is about to 'break out' in the New Year so get ready to call your brokers...well, it couldn't go any lower could it?...could it?! :-(