Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Harley]

49 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Fuck off Tavi, stop reading Dosbods. 

Anybody reading that with anything other than annoyance distain is so out of their depth.

Edited March 29 by Harley

[Ash4781b]

National living wage is up soon. Overall I expect  average wage inflation to run at around 6-7%.  the frozen personal tax allowances are creating a massive problem but people are doing what they can. 

A recent one. I read it the other day and thought what fantastic insight. I still feel the new inflation target is 5% loosely steered around Sunak’s 5 pledges.

“"We don't have to actually get inflation all the way back to target… to cut rates for instance, what we have to do is be convinced that it is going there," Mr Bailey told the BBC's economics editor Faisal Islam who was interviewing him on behalf of UK broadcasters. “

"We should act ahead of time in that sense because we have to be forward looking."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68618436.amp

 

[Ash4781b]

2 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

If its the start of a major new credit cycle with cost push inflationary pressure then would it be worth buying up positions with some big mining companies before they pop? Glencore, Rio, Vale, Anglo-American etc

They seem best placed as they are start of the chain and also match up with the sort of fiscally driven (and green) projects that Keynsians would favour - electric lines (copper, steal), building sprees of any type, wind turbines, nuclear power etc big things that politicians want to stand in front of wearing hard hats

There seems to be a move to ramp up European military spending. The press are reporting it’s due to Russia but interesting if it’s aligned here. As typically military production is at home and associated industries. 

[Errol]

39 minutes ago, Harley said:

Anybody reading that with anything other than annoyance distain is so out of their depth.

Tavi is made fun of here, but what is the performance of the Crescat funds he manage/advises?

 

Edited March 29 by Errol

[Errol]

55 minutes ago, Harley said:

The elephant in the room though is preparing for the overt financial repression that has started and we feel will increase significantly in a very overt manner. 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

If its the start of a major new credit cycle with cost push inflationary pressure then would it be worth buying up positions with some big mining companies before they pop? Glencore, Rio, Vale, Anglo-American etc

They seem best placed as they are start of the chain and also match up with the sort of fiscally driven (and green) projects that Keynsians would favour - electric lines (copper, steal), building sprees of any type, wind turbines, nuclear power etc big things that politicians want to stand in front of wearing hard hats

Maybe,but im hoping the PM miners run up fast and i might get the chance to swap.I think there is going to me a massive bull market in commods.Lots of things will be happening.Looks like China will destroy the European car industry for instance with its EVs,so we might see ICE through hybrids pushed more so they can save the industry.East will stick to coal and gas but nuclear looks certain to expand (what were Germany thinking) so uranium might see $200 .Its a terrible set up for FIAT.

[MrXxxx]

Is this the Black Swan event to upset the markets?...

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/israel-strikes-kill-hezbollah-commander-and-syrian-colonel/ar-BB1kKUTq

I suppose it depends on the American and Russian reaction to it...well we know where the US stands in regards Israel by looking at their apathy regarding Gaza, and the Russian have their 'hands full' anyway, so perhaps it may just 'pass everyone by'?!

[Funn3r]

49 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

he steals all the 1/2 cents from payroll checks that otherwise would go to the company….

This is starting to sound like the plot of "Post Office 2024" shunting any postmasters positive discrepancies into the slush fund and then into declared profits. 

I missed out on all the 2020 cheap things due to fear of all these stocks n shares thingies. I finally took the plunge and started an S&S ISA in very early January 2022 (thanks to guidance in here) and as DB said it has been a treading-water experience.  I too am looking forward to the polos loosening their grip and the market actually being a market.

 

[ashestoashes]

all you guys are going to be debanked once your ESG scores are passed to them

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Yep, we hit a forever ath this month

Interesting that a few posters are saying this, my overall is looking pretty decent at the moment, and I have been taking some large amounts out from divis to live on in the last 6 months. Sorry @Mandalorian mate, but you are full of shit

 

[Mandalorian]

18 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Interesting that a few posters are saying this, my overall is looking pretty decent at the moment, and I have been taking some large amounts out from divis to live on in the last 6 months. Sorry @Mandalorian mate, but you are full of shit

 

Only ones who are, as you say, full of shit are those who don't understand where dividends come from and the effect they have on the share price compared to not paying them out.

But you do you, boo.

[Funn3r]

How do the stock markets actually work? 

Say I make an order to buy a small amount of some shares - it can't surely go to a human who says let me see, Funn3r wants to spend a few quid, and decides if it is OK. Must surely be computers? Why does it close at weekends? Seriously that was a giant surprise to me, being more used to trading crypto which you can at any time.

[leonardratso]

27 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

How do the stock markets actually work? 

Say I make an order to buy a small amount of some shares - it can't surely go to a human who says let me see, Funn3r wants to spend a few quid, and decides if it is OK. Must surely be computers? Why does it close at weekends? Seriously that was a giant surprise to me, being more used to trading crypto which you can at any time.

because weekends are the time to declare bankruptcy and wipe out the grannies before monday morning.

[Mandalorian]

28 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

How do the stock markets actually work? 

Say I make an order to buy a small amount of some shares - it can't surely go to a human who says let me see, Funn3r wants to spend a few quid, and decides if it is OK. Must surely be computers? Why does it close at weekends? Seriously that was a giant surprise to me, being more used to trading crypto which you can at any time.

Closes at weekend cos tradition.

 

When you buy a share, it's being transferred to you from someone else who wants to sell it. 

(Common myth busted: If you buy a share in, say BAE Systems, then BAE Systems doesn't get a penny of your money - the person or entity you buy it from gets your money.  The only time BAE gets any of your money is if you were the original buyer of the shares when it first went public or if you take part in a rights issue or other 'corporate event'.)

 

What if nobody is selling the shares you want to buy?

There are things called 'market makers' (mostly big banks and financial organisations) who guarantee to buy/sell sufficient shares in any company in the market to enable enough liquidity to allow a functioning market. 

A market maker guarantees to buy/sell a set number of shares in each company - come what may.  But they don't do it out of the goodness of their hearts, of course.

[MrXxxx]

I found this article interesting:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/the-uk-equity-death-spiral-a-drain-on-the-lifeblood-of-british-business/ar-BB1kKoAz

...especially this QUOTE

"Comparatively, pension funds in countries like Australia and Canada hold a much larger portion of their assets in domestic equities. It’s very telling when even the pension fund for Britain's MPs and Ministers invests a mere 1.7% in UK-listed companies, which appears to indicate they do not have confidence in UK equities and companies."

...says it all really doesn't it?!...especially when:

QUOTE: "The combined ownership of UK quoted equities by insurance and pension funds has dramatically fallen from 45.7% in 1997 to just 4.2% in 2022, marking the lowest level ever recorded. This shift poses a grave risk to the UK economy's stability and sustainability."

[Ash4781b]

Anecdotally Local petrol stations near me 140p litre unleaded. Looks to be rising but seems to be demand related (edit Easter)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13249247/amp/Drivers-hitting-road-Easter-face-concerning-hike-fuel-prices-cost-petrol-forecourts-rises-5p-litre-diesel-6p.html

Edited March 29 by Ash4781b

[Axeman123]

4 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

QUOTE: "The combined ownership of UK quoted equities by insurance and pension funds has dramatically fallen from 45.7% in 1997 to just 4.2% in 2022

The money for them to get into REITS and BTR had to come from somewhere else that they wouldn't be putting it.

Its Dutch Disease (with property) all the way down...

[Funn3r]

27 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

I found this article interesting:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/the-uk-equity-death-spiral-a-drain-on-the-lifeblood-of-british-business/ar-BB1kKoAz

...especially this QUOTE

"Comparatively, pension funds in countries like Australia and Canada hold a much larger portion of their assets in domestic equities. It’s very telling when even the pension fund for Britain's MPs and Ministers invests a mere 1.7% in UK-listed companies, which appears to indicate they do not have confidence in UK equities and companies."

...says it all really doesn't it?!...especially when:

QUOTE: "The combined ownership of UK quoted equities by insurance and pension funds has dramatically fallen from 45.7% in 1997 to just 4.2% in 2022, marking the lowest level ever recorded. This shift poses a grave risk to the UK economy's stability and sustainability."

And tax. I only have one UK share BATS and I was nastily surprised when I found I had to pay  (even more) tax for putting money into the UK economy. Why should I pay a tax when I can buy foreign shares for no tax? Do they think I 'm stupid?  Shan't make that mistake again. 

[Noallegiance]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Maybe,but im hoping the PM miners run up fast and i might get the chance to swap.I think there is going to me a massive bull market in commods.Lots of things will be happening.Looks like China will destroy the European car industry for instance with its EVs,so we might see ICE through hybrids pushed more so they can save the industry.East will stick to coal and gas but nuclear looks certain to expand (what were Germany thinking) so uranium might see $200 .Its a terrible set up for FIAT.

I've been in miners ever since 2020.

Now I've got to play the game of finally getting what I want but not selling early.

Courage of conviction needed here.

[Spiney Norman]

6 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

And tax. I only have one UK share BATS and I was nastily surprised when I found I had to pay  (even more) tax for putting money into the UK economy.

?

By tax do you stamp duty?  It's only payable at 0.5% on UK incorparated stock, no biggie when you consider the size of gain or loss over the long term. I wouldn't let the stamp duty preclude you from buying UK stocks if you see value there. I know its annoying but for me thats all it is, is an annoyance.

[Funn3r]

4 minutes ago, Spiney Norman said:

?

By tax do you stamp duty?  It's only payable at 0.5% on UK incorparated stock, no biggie when you consider the size of gain or loss over the long term. I wouldn't let the stamp duty preclude you from buying UK stocks if you see value there. I know its annoying but for me thats all it is, is an annoyance.

The government kick me in the balls for tax. I pay an astronomical amount.  Month after month another kick in the balls. Saying this one's only a small extra kick in the balls doesn't work for me.

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

The government kick me in the balls for tax. I pay an astronomical amount.  Month after month another kick in the balls. Saying this one's only a small extra kick in the balls doesn't work for me.

I hate the stamp duty on some share purchase, it boils my piss, especially in a supposed tax free ISA that I have already paid income tax on the funds in the first place.

Wankers the lot of them.

[Spiney Norman]

26 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

The government kick me in the balls for tax. I pay an astronomical amount.  Month after month another kick in the balls. Saying this one's only a small extra kick in the balls doesn't work for me.

I know, and I agree with you the bastards do it to me too.

But we are here to make money from opportunity. If an opportunity  arises best to take that oppurtinty and make some money.

Let me put it another way. If I sent you a cheque for £500 (an opportunity) and told you had to pay tax on it, would you  cash it? Or would you refuse to cash it because of the tax?  (lost opportunity)

I guess what i'm trying to say is I don't let emotions or anger at the govenment interfere with decisions about making money. I take the opportunity should it arise.

 

Edited March 29 by Spiney Norman

[Starsend]

33 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

The government kick me in the balls for tax. I pay an astronomical amount.  Month after month another kick in the balls. Saying this one's only a small extra kick in the balls doesn't work for me.

 

[King Penda]

25 minutes ago, Spiney Norman said:

I know, and I agree with you the bastards do it to me too.

But we are here to make money from opportunity. If an opportunity  arises best to take that oppurtinty and make some money.

Let me put it another way. If I sent you a cheque for £500 (an opportunity) and told you had to pay tax on it, would you  cash it? Or would you refuse to cash it because of the tax?  (lost opportunity)

I guess what i'm trying to say is I don't let emotions or anger at the govenment interfere with decisions about making money. I take the opportunity should it arise.

 

The dilemmas you lot have make me laugh compared to the jams of society. I’m not sure they are even aware of what’s going on other than McDonald’s have gone up in price .