Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Mandalorian]

5 hours ago, Jay said:

That is an excellent post with lots of great advice..some of which is too subtle to completely understand…I am guilty of waiting for a bk with an over allocation in cash..the us major indices are showing 20% plus returns over a period less than a year..even being in a tracker means good inflation beating returns..

 

 

You're trying to time the market in other words.

Don't bother.

The average market participant should buy a global tracker, in a tax shelter, like clockwork, every month through thick and thin.

The average market participant should not attempt to stock-pick, not try to judge whether the market is over/undervalued.

Just buy your chosen fund and leave it alone.

[Mandalorian]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

The reality is they're not gonna get paid in full or will get paid in the UK version of Zim dollars

Nope.

'They' are the ones who will decide what happens.

'They' aren't going to impoverish themselves in retirement.

You will pay for it by being impoverished in your retirement instead.

[montecristo]

7 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

You're trying to time the market in other words.

Don't bother.

The average market participant should buy a global tracker, in a tax shelter, like clockwork, every month through thick and thin.

The average market participant should not attempt to stock-pick, not try to judge whether the market is over/undervalued.

Just buy your chosen fund and leave it alone.

I only buy a global tracker now which is doing very well.  I tend to use my £20k ISA allowance on the 1st day of the tax year when the allowance resets.  Is buying every month better than buying at the earliest opportunity?

Edited March 30 by montecristo

[Mandalorian]

1 hour ago, Lightscribe said:

India doesn’t get talked about much here, but the growth potential is massive.

 

And always will be...

[Mandalorian]

4 minutes ago, montecristo said:

I only buy a global tracker now which is doing very well.  I tend to use my £20k ISA allowance on the 1st day of the tax when the allowance resets.  Is buying every month better than buying at the earliest opportunity?

Unknown.  Nobody knows and nobody can know.

Depends what happens in the meantime.

If it goes up then you made the right choice.  If it goes down then you didn't.

See comments about trying to time the market.

 

For what it's worth.  I fill my ISA at the start of the tax year and then buy.  I don't trust Labour to not come in and abolish future ISA transactions and chuck the cash back out - hence doing that.  Tax tail wagging investment dog.

My SIPP on the other hand (which gets more than the ISA paid in) is monthly with occasional top ups.

Edited March 30 by Mandalorian

[Bobthebuilder]

24 minutes ago, montecristo said:

I only buy a global tracker now which is doing very well.  I tend to use my £20k ISA allowance on the 1st day of the tax year when the allowance resets.  Is buying every month better than buying at the earliest opportunity?

Buying monthly means you are buying the average over time, and is normally an accepted way of doing things.

[montecristo]

16 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Unknown.  Nobody knows and nobody can know.

Depends what happens in the meantime.

If it goes up then you made the right choice.  If it goes down then you didn't.

See comments about trying to time the market.

 

For what it's worth.  I fill my ISA at the start of the tax year and then buy.  I don't trust Labour to not come in and abolish future ISA transactions and chuck the cash back out - hence doing that.  Tax tail wagging investment dog.

My SIPP on the other hand (which gets more than the ISA paid in) is monthly with occasional top ups.

I will stick to buying the £20k on the 8th (monday) April.   My SIPP is also monthly. 

I like the fire and forget aspect to it all rather than spending time researching stocks and worrying about individual companies.

[Bobthebuilder]

55 minutes ago, headrow said:

Really ?

 

You've been advocating VOD for years , right from when they were 200p . On HPC there are still quotes from you buying at 181p saying they're cheap.

Anybody buying at them prices is 60% down. Even if you keep tagging the never ending bottoms you must be way more than 32% underwater as the share price hasn't risen for 6 years , only gone down.

Don't forget to add the divis.

[montecristo]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Buying monthly means you are buying the average over time, and is normally an accepted way of doing things.

I salary sacrifice into my SIPP monthly.   I do have some cash in 5-6% savings accounts which I may keep for any blood on the street buys.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im 32% down on them,but 15% down with divis.Inflation adjusted is nasty.BUT if i add the divs from TEF and VOD i end up level,but up 22% on TEF stock,so across the two average 10% up (i own slightly more TEF than VOD) so still behind inflation in the time.

I thought comms have done poor and they have,but if i add on the profits from TIMB ,TEF Brazil,Turkcell,first BT buy/sell i have made good cash profits and the sector looks dirt cheap still and getting investing in assets done before the next wave of inflation.

It good to see the thread thinking cycles rather than im down x amount on this stock.March 20 was the start of the cycle,are we in front of inflation is the only number that matters.If we are,we have done a fantastic job given the financial repression of this distribution cycle.

I think the issue is that down here we've got used to picking winning sectors.I'll jsuty pop a couple of charts up for comparison. worth noting that some of the potash plays have gone back below covid lows @ThoughtCriminal ref yara particularly

there have been mulitple opportunities,if you 'prayed n sprayed'  in either oilies/goldies/potash to nip in and out for some bumper pay outs sincetheir low in 2020 and then buy back near your entry point..Not so with telcoms.theyve jsut pretty much dead cat bounced for the last four years.I know you nipped out of BT as I remember the trade timstamped around the 190 level but beyond that theres been slim pickings for profit tkaing

BUT and it's a big but,if thats your worst perfoming sector then I'll live with it.I still think comms will run long term,but must admit am ortating into some extra PMs.

2 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

The beauty of low fee monthly allocations. 

Another one that I’ve had with the EM funds since last year is Jupiter India.

India doesn’t get talked about much here, but the growth potential is massive. 

As I’ve said before, if we truly do get a run in gold, in the commodity super cycle, their population that inherently uses gold as a store of family wealth will quickly outpace the west who relies on fiat debt.

Tobacco, asset managers, oil, petroleum what’s not to like?

 

https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/o/09qf/jupiter-india-i-acc

appreciate the heads up there LS.Thats done bautifully.thats one Ill kep an eye out for psot bk if chance arises

I liek India too but our only exposurte is via sedy and the baccy stocks but I would defo like more.

ITC(india baccy) isnt availabel as an ADR otherwise Id buy it.

[headrow]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Don't forget to add the divis.

They reduced the Final dividend by 50% 4 years ago. That was supporting the share price  , it has never been higher than what it was since they announced that cut. In fact the price has since halved. Another 50% cut in the div could take it to the 40p mark imo.

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, headrow said:

They reduced the Final dividend by 50% 4 years ago. That was supporting the share price  , it has never been higher than what it was since they announced that cut. In fact the price has since halved. Another 50% cut in the div could take it to the 40p mark imo.

Another 50% divi cut was announced the other week if I remember correctly.

Dog of a stock, I must add I only own a small amount as I have been a customer for years and I think the customer service is appalling.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, headrow said:

You've been advocating VOD for years , right from when they were 200p . On HPC there are still quotes from you buying at 181p saying they're cheap.

Anybody buying at them prices is 60% down. Even if you keep tagging the never ending bottoms you must be way more than 32% underwater as the share price hasn't risen for 6 years , only gone down.

In the past hes also advocated BT(trade as in psot above).which I've seent eh timestamps on.so what.?

few things here.

1 jsut because you buy it doesnt mena you cant'/shouldnt sell it.

2 time in the amrekt means a lot.Vod were last 180 back in 2018.there has been laods of corproate activity sicne then eg the acquisiton of liberty global euro assets for circa E18bn which didnt go so well.if as a trader you sit tight in shares that are tanking with signs of bad manamgement then you'll get 60% losses(Ive had plenty).If you fail to react to the news flow then thats your problem,not the person/s who tipped them way back.

we're currently sat on 35% or so vod losses.

I was buying Ecora two days back at 76p.are you gonna fling that back at me after WW3 in 6 years? 

3 your psot smacks of wanting to offload your responsiblity for your own investments on someone else.if you place  atrade then you need to dyor.we say it often here enough.

 

I think you psoted another one of these 'play the man not the ball' type psots a few weeks back.I could be wrong but there was another.if it was you then please take repsonsiblity for your trades the winners and the losers and don't try and offload your failings onto someone lese.

this thread is there to ifnorm and entertain,if you want professional invemsnet advice,I suggest you pay for it and get long your 60/40 fund.

hate doing this to a logn term psoter but I'm gonna be sticking you on the ignore lsit with the dividend loon.good luck.

this reply is 5-7 mintues of my lfie I wont get back

Edited March 30 by sancho panza

[headrow]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Another 50% divi cut was announced the other week if I remember correctly.

Dog of a stock, I must add I only own a small amount as I have been a customer for years and I think the customer service is appalling.

I bailed at 100p.

 

I'm a customer too , I'm still paying the same for Broadband as I was years ago ,i've no contract with them and the price never seems to go up.

I've lost a load on telecoms , KCOM got took private for less than I paid , BT i lost 5k and Vod near 10.

I own Telecom Plus though , who own Utility Warehouse , bought in 2008 the day Lehmans went under for 200p and they are now trading at 1600 and i get 65p a year dividend. The third party resellers making more than the actual providers

[headrow]

Just now, sancho panza said:

In the past hes also advocated BT(trade as in psot above).

few things here.

1 jsut because you buy it doesnt mena you cant'/shouldnt sell it.

2 time in the amrekt means a lot.Vod were last 180 back in 2018.there has been laods of corproate activity sicne then eg the acquisiton of liberty global euro assets for circa E18bn which didnt go so well.if as a trader you sit tight in shares that are tanking with signs of bad manamgement then you'll get 60% losses(Ive had plenty).If you fail to react to the news flow then thats your problem,not the person/s who tipped them way back.

I was buying Ecora two days back at 76p.are you gonna fling that back at me after WW3 in 6 years? 

3 your psot smacks of wanting to offload your responsiblity for your own investments on someone else.if you place  atrade then you need to dyor.we say it often here enough.

 

I think you psoted another one of these 'play the man not the ball' type psots a few weeks back.I could be wrong but there was another.if it was you then please take repsonsiblity for your trades the winners and the losers and don't try and offload your failings onto someone lese.

this thread is there to ifnorm and entertain,if you want professional invemsnet advice,I suggest you pay for it.

Fuck me you've got some right sand in your vagina.

 

I just questioned how it was possible he was only 32% down . 

[Bobthebuilder]

4 minutes ago, headrow said:

I bailed at 100p.

 

I'm a customer too , I'm still paying the same for Broadband as I was years ago ,i've no contract with them and the price never seems to go up.

I've lost a load on telecoms , KCOM got took private for less than I paid , BT i lost 5k and Vod near 10.

I own Telecom Plus though , who own Utility Warehouse , bought in 2008 the day Lehmans went under for 200p and they are now trading at 1600 and i get 65p a year dividend. The third party resellers making more than the actual providers

My best telecom was a trade on TEF Brasil over the last year, used funds from a doubling in value in Guinness energy, sold all of that now only have some bought with profits  in TEF Spain, Verizon and BT, but those are mainly for the divis.

[Frank Hovis]

27 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Buying monthly means you are buying the average over time, and is normally an accepted way of doing things.

 

Yes, but it depends how long a time horizon you have.

I've been buying funds for over thirty years so a single annual purchase works for me.

My big global tracker had been treading water for months but has rocketed these last three or four weeks.

I don't know why, I couldn't have timed it, but it is generally the nature of stock markets: "punctuated equilibria" as Stephen Jay Gould termed evolution.

Long periods of not very much followed by rapid bull or bear runs which develop their own momentum.

 

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, headrow said:

Really ?

 

You've been advocating VOD for years , right from when they were 200p . On HPC there are still quotes from you buying at 181p saying they're cheap.

Anybody buying at them prices is 60% down. Even if you keep tagging the never ending bottoms you must be way more than 32% underwater as the share price hasn't risen for 6 years , only gone down.

You assume that he has sold all at the low price, maybe he sold a tranche on the way down?....if he hasn't sold any then he isn't down at all, until he sells at a lower price than paid or VOD goes 'tits-up'.

[headrow]

1 minute ago, MrXxxx said:

You assume that he has sold all at the low price, maybe he sold a tranche on the way down?....if he hasn't sold any then he isn't down at all, until he sells at a lower price than paid or VOD goes 'tits-up'.

If he isn't down at all then why is he saying he is 32% down?

[Bobthebuilder]

10 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

 

Yes, but it depends how long a time horizon you have.

I've been buying funds for over thirty years so a single annual purchase works for me.

My big global tracker had been treading water for months but has rocketed these last three or four weeks.

I don't know why, I couldn't have timed it, but it is generally the nature of stock markets: "punctuated equilibria" as Stephen Jay Gould termed evolution.

Long periods of not very much followed by rapid bull or bear runs which develop their own momentum.

 

Agree with all of that Frank, I also was buying funds every year since the ISA was introduced (Jupiter was the one back in the day), but still bought monthly when the yearly limit was £3000, I wouldn't want to be sticking £20,000 into any one fund on the 8th of April every year.

[MrXxxx]

15 minutes ago, headrow said:

If he isn't down at all then why is he saying he is 32% down?

I didn't say he wasn't down at all, I said if he didn't sell any he wouldn't be down...perhaps as I have also stated he sold a tranche on the way down and so is 'only' 32% down [or bought in descending ladders and so hasn't paid the assumed 181p price per share but a lower average] rather than the full 60% down that you quote.

[Mandalorian]

43 minutes ago, montecristo said:

I will stick to buying the £20k on the 8th (monday) April.   My SIPP is also monthly. 

I like the fire and forget aspect to it all rather than spending time researching stocks and worrying about individual companies.

Stock picking is mostly a mug's game*.  Unless you have a special talent** (or luck, as it usually is).

 

The sensible thing is to let the market stock pick on your behalf.  Spread your risk across thousands of companies.

Graph is total return (includes "divvies").***

What would you have rather had?  Be underwater**** on two of the favourites here or bought any one of those three indices?

 

But I want my 'divvies'?  Sell some of your tracker. 

(It's the same thing - Yes, it's counter intuitive and some of the slow learners will struggle with that concept, but that's a them problem and not a me problem.)

 

Ahh.  But what if you find the big one that's going to be a "20 bagger"?  You probably won't.  But by buying the whole market, you will have it in there somewhere once it gets big enough.

 

Big tech is over valued?  Is it?  How do you know?

Everything is going to crash?  Is it?  How do you know?

 

Just relax and let the market do the work for you.

 

* Or intellectual pursuit or hobby

** Spoiler alert - you don't.

*** Source:  Hargreaves Lansdown tool

**** In real terms

[Mandalorian]

36 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

 

this thread is there to ifnorm and entertain,if you want professional invemsnet advice,I suggest you pay for it and get long your 60/40 fund.

hate doing this to a logn term psoter but I'm gonna be sticking you on the ignore lsit with the dividend loon.good luck.

 

He won't see this because I'm the 'dividend loon' - result.  I won't have to argue with him. 

Dissenting opinion backed by research and real time share price movements obviously are not welcome here.

 

But as for a 60/40 fund.  Personally, I wouldn't have a bond given to me.

[Mandalorian]

16 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

 I wouldn't want to be sticking £20,000 into any one fund on the 8th of April every year.

Me neither.  I usually split into two or three funds.

[Harley]

8 hours ago, Jay said:

That is an excellent post with lots of great advice..some of which is too subtle to completely understand…I am guilty of waiting for a bk with an over allocation in cash..the us major indices are showing 20% plus returns over a period less than a year..even being in a tracker means good inflation beating returns..

my returns in digital assets and related tech sectors and plain tech has been phenomenal..more luck and common sense than skill..possibly as you say trend investing..

the us has real interest rates and low unemployment plus an election so it seems unlikely a bk is around the corner..rates may stay where they are but they are not really high historical..maybe the trend higher in assets continues a while longer..

I do agree financial repression is increasing..another point you raise is understanding your risk profile and tolerance carefully..otherwise you may find yourself stressed or worse, a point that poster was trying to make..

my understanding is that you are implying that individual stock picking is probably not for you..for your objectives, risk profile return etc..an informed decision…it is important to dyor which you are saying and that is golden..

Imo pm don’t rise a great deal over the year given the current run up..it’s an inflation hedge imo and others will disagree..if liquidity does increase then the rising tide will raise all boats..but some boats will rise more than others..the reverse if liquidity fails to show up..I will continue with trend investing in tech rather than wait for the asset managers to deliver..one reason being with financial repression people may not have spare money to invest so less need for financial managers..oils, baccies which I also hold imo will offer less returns going forward but still have an allocation in case I get it wrong..

as you say know your self and your objectives and act accordingly to them..

The other advice I believe is to cut your losses short and let your profits run…probably buffet but it’s worked for him and me…so far..

 

Sorry Jay but I missed this post.  I promise I didn't have Mr "Be Lucky" on ignore where it belongs!    OK, I'm triggered by the idea of luck (as you'll see)!  There's a lot there.  I have boring and not very clever opinions, no more, and am always up for a change!

Yep, our digitals have done well too.  Should have bought more back when but we keep forgetting about them!  They are (were?) very well behaved for trend following.  There's a book out about how BTC has been captured I must read as the introduction of ETFs (with derivatives, etc) is not good so quite a plausible thought (like for the gold market).

I believe nothing (don't need to), especially about the US.  It's election year and it's all more fake than usual.  But the price goes up and that's all that matters.  But that increase in price has to be seen as much as an inflationary devaluation of fiat as anything more meaningful.  A tracker should suffer in any reverse.  And the issue is that many trackers are vulnerable given the weighting of the US market.  Ideally our core portfolio would own just one global equity fund but there is concentration risk.  Sure, it will move with the global market weightings but only after a correction.  We look closely at the indices these ETFs are based on and most have only say 15% in EMs versus DMs.  Then there is the risk of holding so much in one ETF and only few other choices to diversify into.  So we'd ideally hold one DM and one EM ETF (proportion tbd) as a minimum although we currently operate at the regional level (so an EM, a Europe, an APD, etc).

Risk is a crucial factor yet few have a risk model.  We focus on return per unit of risk (as defined by JustETF) across several time frames.  And we match risk to our needs which are based on required personal cash flows.  We empirically risk assess all possible portfolio constructs.  Particularly important for us given we are at the twilight days of our investment journey.  The idea is we take on no more risk than we need to in order to achieve our required returns, using explicit and customised numbers not some barbaric industry rule of thumb.  Overall, we prefer the historical outcomes of the Permanent portfolio.  Were talking here about the options within each class.

Almost certainly individual stocks are off the table for us in any material way.  Say you've got a £1m portfolio and 20 stocks for diversification.   £50K per stock, really?  But the £1m tag is a red herring, as relatively, still, really?  That's not us and IMO not consistent with wealth preservation.  Sure, say £10k per stock for a bit of upside fun (especially trading and sniping profits).  Or maybe 40 at £25k but managing 40 stocks?  But taking a step back, does any of that type of individual investing with all the extra work improve the return:risk?  Not for us with our abilities.  Only times we could see doing that is if capital accumulation is the (right) objective or where the ETF return is small (so you have little to lose and more to gain).  The last point is key, the "bliss point" probably does change as you have larger capital (i.e. the equation is not linear).  That £1m portfolio could yield say £50k pa almost risk free - maybe that's all you need until you die.  But a £50k portfolio?

PMs have been our best investment.  We started back in the early 2000s.  Just bought and forgot.  Not even timed (another one we forget about).  Several %000's of gains but all we were really doing was tracking was the decline of fiat outside of that system and its counterparties.  Plenty good enough for a chunk of our capital.  It's rainy day stuff like a new roof or new hip. 

People either dollar cost average or trend invest (although most use weird algos!).  Nothing wrong with DCA for equities and we wish we had done it over the last few decades.  We did with institutional pensions but they've all had a knack of really severe underperformance.  Trend investing can be as simple or as complicated as wished and although not needed for "safer" investing (DCA) over the last few decades, history shows such benign periods don't last and the alternatives can be severe (study history of the markets).  Severe enough that older folk would not have seen that money back (nominal) and the most of the rest neither (after inflation).

As a salesman likes a rejection because it moves him one step closer to the one in x sale, so we like taking losses!  We take them because we accept that is how it has to be....plus a load of maths!  The question is when and how much.  Too much and your right brain won out.  But depends what the basis for getting into the trade was.  We get in on techs so we get out on techs.  Others do whatever so be lucky (erggg!).  And everything should be seen as a trade, just of variable duration.

Ah, stopped raining......!

Edited March 30 by Harley