Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Harley]

12 hours ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

I know this one!

Is this from a film worth watching?

[montecristo]

4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Is this from a film worth watching?

You been hiding in a cave for the past 15 years?

[Lightscribe]

11 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

Commods will always crash at some point, it just depends if you're willing to hang it out for a year or two or three watching a bunch of other pricks take your free money while you're waiting.

Most of these companies were lower around 2016 than they were in 2020. 

First ladder into Freeport is a soft $10 depending on what else has gone down by then.

Wtf does contango mean?

 

 

It means the secondary inflation wave is about to fuck some shit up 🍿

[Axeman123]

A self-explanatory headline

How a wine bottle made out of paper is winning over UK supermarkets

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/wine-bottle-made-paper-winning-080000306.html

And a picture that speaks a thousand words

Essentially a wine-box shaped like a traditional bottle. Allegedly 20p a unit more than glass at the moment, but obviously with enough volume I would expect that to flip. The ammount of energy in a single-use wine bottle must be huge in contrast. Obviously most supermarket plonk gets drunk within days of purchase, but the chances of any of these paper bottles preserving a wine in drinkable condition for years on end is negligable IMO. I have fairly recently drunk unopened traditional bottles of spirits and wine with french franc price stickers on them from my late parents house in contrast, and found them fine. I suspect an awful lot of "green" is going to be similar: enshitification of products that favours big industry profits.

[leonardratso]

heres a question that im having trouble finding an answer to;

If i was to import stocks from say one s&s isa to another - as stocks not via sell down and cash, what would be the cost to the allowance allowed in that tax year? is it the value of the stocks at transfer time or the initial cost of the stocks at buy time in the other source isa? or doesnt that count against the allowance of the target isa?

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

heres a question that im having trouble finding an answer to;

If i was to import stocks from say one s&s isa to another - as stocks not via sell down and cash, what would be the cost to the allowance allowed in that tax year? is it the value of the stocks at transfer time or the initial cost of the stocks at buy time in the other source isa? or doesnt that count against the allowance of the target isa?

The stock value makes no difference, it is what you have paid in that tax year that matters. For example if you have paid £10K into the ISA this tax year then transfer it into another you would still have £10K allowance left to use.

If you bed and ISA from a non ISA account it uses up that amount off the yearly allowance.

Also another thing to be aware of is if you take divis out of an ISA that amount comes off your input allowance for the year, for example withdraw £8K in dividends you will have £12K allowance left to put in.

[Mandalorian]

9 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Now if I gave you the choice to invest in Wetherspoons, Fullers or Mitchell & Butlers knowing inflation and a recession was coming which would you pick?

 

None of them.  That's stock picking.

[leonardratso]

8 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

The stock value makes no difference, it is what you have paid in that tax year that matters. For example if you have paid £10K into the ISA this tax year then transfer it into another you would still have £10K allowance left to use.

If you bed and ISA from a non ISA account it uses up that amount off the yearly allowance.

Also another thing to be aware of is if you take divis out of an ISA that amount comes off your input allowance for the year, for example withdraw £8K in dividends you will have £12K allowance left to put in.

so if say i have isa A for next year 20K allowance, but i have an old isa B with say 7 or 8K of stocks in it which i hadnt paid into last year, then trasnferring that 7 or 8K of stocks from B to A wouldnt effect A's 20K allowance for next year?
Im not too bothered about B, that can empty and i wont use it again.

Edited March 31 by leonardratso

[leonardratso]

That withdrawal doesnt sound right,

so say you have i dunno, 20K in an isa in 2023 and it makes 8K in dividends (hypothetically) then you take those 8K out in 2024 are you saying that you can only put back 12K in 2024?

Edited March 31 by leonardratso

[Bobthebuilder]

9 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

so if say i have isa A for next year 20K allowance, but i have an old isa B with say 7 or 8K of stocks in it which i hadnt paid into last year, then trasnferring that 7 or 8K of stocks from B to A wouldnt effect A's 20K allowance for next year?
Im not too bothered about B, that can empty and i wont use it again.

Yes that's correct.

4 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

That withdrawal doesnt sound right,

so say you have i dunno, 20K in an isa in 2023 and it makes 8K in dividends (hypothetically) then you take those 8K out in 2024 are you saying that you can only put back 12K in 2024?

Yes that's also correct.

[Mandalorian]

1 hour ago, Calcutta said:

Commods will always crash at some point, it just depends if you're willing to hang it out for a year or two or three watching a bunch of other pricks take your free money while you're waiting.

Most of these companies were lower around 2016 than they were in 2020. 

First ladder into Freeport is a soft $10 depending on what else has gone down by then.

Wtf does contango mean?

 

There's two descriptions of the price curves in the futures market:  Contango and backwardation

Contango - current spot price lower than the futures price.

Backwardation - current spot price higher than futures price.

[Mandalorian]

13 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Yes that's correct.

Yes that's also correct.

That's wrong.

Dividends do not affect how much you can pay into an ISA.  You have a £20k allowance and that's that.

Though watch out for flexible ISAs.  These allow you to withdraw and pay back in.  But it's more complicated than it needs to be.  https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/flexible-isas/

Edited March 31 by Mandalorian

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, Mandalorian said:

That's wrong.

Dividends do not affect how much you can pay into an ISA.

It does if you take them from an ISA, at least it does with H&L.

Every time I take them my yearly allowance drops by that amount. I know some cash ISAs are flexible, but I am not aware that's the case with a SS ISA.

[Mandalorian]

 

27 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

so if say i have isa A for next year 20K allowance, but i have an old isa B with say 7 or 8K of stocks in it which i hadnt paid into last year, then trasnferring that 7 or 8K of stocks from B to A wouldnt effect A's 20K allowance for next year?
Im not too bothered about B, that can empty and i wont use it again.

Just whatever you do:  DO NOT DO THE TRANSFER YOURSELF BY TAKING THE MONEY OUT AND PAYING IT INTO ANOTHER ISA - you'll then end up with only £12k allowance this year.

Do it through the broker/bank's ISA transfer system and you keep the £20k allowance.

 

[Mandalorian]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

It does if you take them from an ISA, at least it does with H&L.

Every time I take them my yearly allowance drops by that amount. I know some cash ISAs are flexible, but I am not aware that's the case with a SS ISA.

You need to query that with HL.  Withdrawals should not affect your £20k allowance.

The total of all contributions across all ISAs is £20k a year.

[leonardratso]

yeah i cant see how taking dividends out reduces your allowance, say you paid in 20k on 6th april so thats 2024/2025blown then withdrew every month the dividends - surely they cant cause a -ve allowance.

Edited March 31 by leonardratso

[Mandalorian]

Just now, leonardratso said:

yeah i cant see how taking dividends out reduces your allowance, say you paid in 20k on 6th april so thats 2024 blown then withdrew every month the dividends - surely they cant cause a -ve allowance.

Indeed

[Mandalorian]

10 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

It does if you take them from an ISA, at least it does with H&L.

Every time I take them my yearly allowance drops by that amount. I know some cash ISAs are flexible, but I am not aware that's the case with a SS ISA.

Are you confusing this with paying money in?

If you paid in £10k, then £5k then you have used £15k of your allowance.

If you then take out £5k (balance is now down to £10k) and pay the same £5k back in immediately  (balance now £15k) then that's all of your allowance done with.  You have paid in £10k, £5k and £5k = £20k.  The fact it's the same £5k twice makes no difference to HMRC.

This all assumes a non-flexible ISA of course.

Edited March 31 by Mandalorian

[Bobthebuilder]

3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

yeah i cant see how taking dividends out reduces your allowance, say you paid in 20k on 6th april so thats 2024 blown then withdrew every month the dividends - surely they cant cause a -ve allowance.

Yes that's correct. If you pay in the £20K on day one then withdrawals cannot make a difference to your allowance.

 

44 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Also another thing to be aware of is if you take divis out of an ISA that amount comes off your input allowance for the year

Maybe I should have wrote, be aware before you withdraw if you want to add for the year.

[Mandalorian]

1 minute ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Yes that's correct. If you pay in the £20K on day one then withdrawals cannot make a difference to your allowance.

 

Maybe I should have wrote, be aware before you withdraw if you want to add for the year.

What I think you're trying to say is if you withdraw the dividends AND WANT TO PAY THEM BACK IN then that will come off your allowance.

That's correct.

 

Imagine you have paid in £8k this year.  You have £12k of the allowance left.

You get dividends in the ISA of £1k (this does not affect the allowance). 

You pay the £1k out and then pay them back in a week later.  (They cease being dividends at this point and are just cash.)

That's £8k paid in originally and then £1k paid in.  You've used £9k of the allowance in total.  £11k left.

 

If you leave the £1k in there all along then that won't have any effect on the allowance.

[Bobthebuilder]

7 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Are you confusing this with paying money in?

If you paid in £10k, then £5k then you have used £15k of your allowance.

If you then take out £5k (balance is now down to £10k) and pay the same £5k back in immediately  (balance now £15k) then that's all of your allowance done with.  You have paid in £10k, £5k and £5k = £20k.  The fact it's the same £5k twice makes no difference to HMRC.

This all assumes a non-flexible ISA of course.

Any withdrawal from a non flexible ISA comes off your yearly allowance.

I have already said this a few posts ago.

[Mandalorian]

9 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Any withdrawal from a non flexible ISA comes off your yearly allowance.

I have already said this a few posts ago.

That's not accurate.  Your wording is misleading and unclear.

Withdrawals do not affect your allowance.

The total amount of money you can pay in is £20,000 in any combination of values.

Removing dividends does not reduce the amount of money you can pay in.  It's still £20,000.

 

On 6th April I could remove £5k from my ISA.

My allowance will still be £20k.  Not £15k.

Edited March 31 by Mandalorian

[Bobthebuilder]

9 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

That's not accurate.

Withdrawals do not affect your allowance.

The allowance is purely based on the amount paid in.

What are Flexible Isas and which platforms offer them? - Investors' Chronicle (investorschronicle.co.uk)

 

[leonardratso]

i cant see a flexible isa being any more complex, as long as all payments in add up to 20K for the year then thats not breaching any rules, so say i pays 15K into a flexible isa, that leaves 5K into another isa or 5K to go in the flexible one, then i take 5K out of the flexible one, but its still logged as having 15K paid in and i can put that 5K back in before year end and it would still be 15K paid into that one.

So you could pay 20K into a flexible isa 6th apr 2024, take it out on 7th april then pay it back in on 3rd april 2025 and not have broken any rules as long as you didnt start another isa in the year and pay into it. Doesnt carry forward though to 2025.

Mind you youd only get the interest on 2 days for the 20K in that case.

[Democorruptcy]

10 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Any withdrawal from a non flexible ISA comes off your yearly allowance.

I have already said this a few posts ago.

When you get a dividend at HL it doesn't drop into your Capital Account, it's listed under cash as income. You can withdraw it or transfer it to your Capital Account. Do you transfer it to your Capital Account then withdraw cash from that?