Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Axeman123]

1 hour ago, Ash4781b said:

Council tax can rise at obscene rates but all the scrutiny on utility bills.

Deliberate missdirection, of course.

[Errol]

Nothing to worry about. Sunak has assured us that the plan is working and inflation has been beaten.

[Harley]

Seen the latest clockwork revisions to the US job data?  This one's amazing.  800k over.  California alone, 350k down to 50k.  It's all fake and happy apart from price.

Edited March 30 by Harley

[Harley]

Never seen so many of my daily charts hitting resistance or breaking through.  Even USDGBP.  The concern though is many are overbought (Stochastic over 80), not that that stopped things in post 2020 with the oil producers.

Edited March 30 by Harley

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Nothing to worry about. Sunak has assured us that the plan is working and inflation has been beaten.

It has, they'll raise the target!

[Harley]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The stamp duty is about 16 days dividends from BAT one off

Explain it to me like I'm a masseuse!

[AWW]

2 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

See also Council tax can rise at obscene rates but all the scrutiny on utility bills. It’s madness. 

Yep. Ours up to 3 grand now. Council has been taken over by nepotistic Turks. Labour obviously. So far they've put LTNs in on all the streets where they live. Nice quiet roads for them. And turned a blind eye to massive council housing fraud amongst people arriving here from Turkey and the correct half of Cyprus.

And the usual useful mongs will still vote for them.

[AWW]

See also, media cheering on government investigating why banks aren't paying higher interest rates to savers but not asking why NS&I's rates are the worst available.

Amazing how for some people the state can do no wrong no matter who is in charge. Oh but vote Labour because evil Tories.

[Harley]

Saturday chuckle from Ivor Cummings...

[sleepwello'nights]

11 hours ago, King Penda said:

The dilemmas you lot have make me laugh compared to the jams of society. I’m not sure they are even aware of what’s going on other than McDonald’s have gone up in price . 

Interesting phrase; who or what are the Jams of society?

 

[Errol]

Just about managing?

[DurhamBorn]

55 minutes ago, Harley said:

Explain it to me like I'm a masseuse!

Masseuse talk,

BAT yield 10%,divided by 365 that is 0.02739% a day over a year.Multiply that by 16 days its 0.438%,stamp duty is 0.5%.18 days is 0.49%,so 18 days divis pay the stamp duty.

I come here with you to escape from the numbers though,please can you go back to telling me about your fathers shrimp pond and how you think white knickers look good against your skin.

Not you Harley of course 

 

Edited March 30 by DurhamBorn

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Errol said:

Nothing to worry about. Sunak has assured us that the plan is working and inflation has been beaten.

Worth watching this Tory Zero seats parody .Sums the the situation up quite well ie the MPs appear to despise their own voters ......and it's quite funny.

 

Obviously some artistic licence etc etc.But some points are well made

56 minutes ago, AWW said:

Amazing how for some people the state can do no wrong no matter who is in charge. Oh but vote Labour because evil Tories.

Rinse n repeat for the NHS. Lots of genuine issues ref incompetence,poor service,bad value for money especially ref covid with its IFR around flu levels(Dept of Health data).

 

Absolutely incredible  that the MSM aren't going back to interview the people who led Brum Council into bankruptcy.But they're not

Edited March 30 by sancho panza

[King Penda]

3 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68666795
 

“Seven bills going up and one going down in April”

Even the one falling might require some scrutiny if as the article suggests fixed / standing charges being increased.

See also Council tax can rise at obscene rates but all the scrutiny on utility bills. It’s madness. 

 

Yep council tax to the moon I wonder how many more councils will either create congestion zones this year or extend there’s like mr khan has in London.I read somewhere he is clear leader to win London yet again

[Castlevania]

18 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I was due a dividend that didn't arrive on the day this week so the next morning I asked HL why it hadn't arrived. They replied "it is typical to see overseas dividends credited to your account a few working days after the official payment date." I replied that if dividend payments were delayed to clients, it would make them a lot of money via not paying as much interest on account deposits. Then expecting to have to wait days for it, I asked for the date when my money arrived with them and that I thought it was one for the Financial Ombudsman. They haven't replied again but the dividend appeared in my account within 20 minutes.

Don’t buy Argentinian companies via ADRs it will drive you nuts. Took months for me to get my last Cresud dividend.

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Show off.

Im 32% down on them,but 15% down with divis.Inflation adjusted is nasty.BUT if i add the divs from TEF and VOD i end up level,but up 22% on TEF stock,so across the two average 10% up (i own slightly more TEF than VOD) so still behind inflation in the time.

I thought comms have done poor and they have,but if i add on the profits from TIMB ,TEF Brazil,Turkcell,first BT buy/sell i have made good cash profits and the sector looks dirt cheap still and getting investing in assets done before the next wave of inflation.

It good to see the thread thinking cycles rather than im down x amount on this stock.March 20 was the start of the cycle,are we in front of inflation is the only number that matters.If we are,we have done a fantastic job given the financial repression of this distribution cycle.

[sancho panza]

 

The reality is they're not gonna get paid in full or will get paid in the UK version of Zim dollars

Edited March 30 by sancho panza

[Red Debt Redemption]

9 hours ago, King Penda said:

I must point out she is going to visit her boyfriend in stafford . When I say don’t trust women i actually mean it . At least in

single 

Think they always have been at it just been more hidden and now easier access with social media, messaging. Worse than men, someone is coming out with a group of us and she's literally said she's there to try fuck one of the guys who's girlfriend is in the same town we are visiting and probably on the lash at same time. 

Edited March 30 by Red Debt Redemption

[Lightscribe]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Show off.

The beauty of low fee monthly allocations. 

Another one that I’ve had with the EM funds since last year is Jupiter India.

India doesn’t get talked about much here, but the growth potential is massive. 

As I’ve said before, if we truly do get a run in gold, in the commodity super cycle, their population that inherently uses gold as a store of family wealth will quickly outpace the west who relies on fiat debt.

Tobacco, asset managers, oil, petroleum what’s not to like?

 

https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/o/09qf/jupiter-india-i-acc

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

 

The reality is they're not gonna get paid in full or will get paid in the UK version of Zim dollars

The problem is,they will get paid last and until everything else collapses and is taken.They will take all private savings,all private wealth,everything.Its the fact they are protected with inflation linking that is destroying our economy,them and bennies.£100k+ a year police pensions just in my close a year,all none funded,all paid for by low paid precept payers,adding to the reason not to bother working.

I cant see any way they reform them.The first reform though should be spouses pensions.They should be abolished,or no inflation uplifts.

These inflation linking policies on half of the country mean the economy cannot heal.Its one of the main policy errors that is destroying us (and will destroy the Conservative party along with immigration,energy and bennies)

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im 32% down on them,but 15% down with divis.Inflation adjusted is nasty.BUT if i add the divs from TEF and VOD i end up level,but up 22% on TEF stock,so across the two average 10% up (i own slightly more TEF than VOD) so still behind inflation in the time.

I thought comms have done poor and they have,but if i add on the profits from TIMB ,TEF Brazil,Turkcell,first BT buy/sell i have made good cash profits and the sector looks dirt cheap still and getting investing in assets done before the next wave of inflation.

It good to see the thread thinking cycles rather than im down x amount on this stock.March 20 was the start of the cycle,are we in front of inflation is the only number that matters.If we are,we have done a fantastic job given the financial repression of this distribution cycle.

NOS (Portugal) has been a good trade with lovely signals.

[Harley]

I'm sure we get more than the media reading here so just for the triggered lot*, talk of aths is misleading.  It just means we lost a little less against real (hell, even fake) inflation.  That's the inconvenient truth.

*FTAD. @King Penda excluded.

Edited March 30 by Harley

[leonardratso]

I love the bbc being arseholed.

Edited March 30 by leonardratso

[moneyscam]

16 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

I found this article interesting:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/the-uk-equity-death-spiral-a-drain-on-the-lifeblood-of-british-business/ar-BB1kKoAz

...especially this QUOTE

"Comparatively, pension funds in countries like Australia and Canada hold a much larger portion of their assets in domestic equities. It’s very telling when even the pension fund for Britain's MPs and Ministers invests a mere 1.7% in UK-listed companies, which appears to indicate they do not have confidence in UK equities and companies."

...says it all really doesn't it?!...especially when:

QUOTE: "The combined ownership of UK quoted equities by insurance and pension funds has dramatically fallen from 45.7% in 1997 to just 4.2% in 2022, marking the lowest level ever recorded. This shift poses a grave risk to the UK economy's stability and sustainability."

Don't know how old you are but you may remember back in 1997 when Labour came to power one of the first things Gordon Brown did was to scrap the dividend tax credit for pension funds with the predictable results you posted above.

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/The-Effects-of-Dividend-Taxes-on-Equity-Prices-A-Re-examination-of-the-1997-U-K-21277

Quote

We re-examine the extent to which personal taxes on dividends are capitalized into the equity prices of domestic firms, using data from around the time of the 1997 U.K. dividend tax reform, which removed a significant tax credit for an important group of investors: U.K. pension funds. The tax-adjusted CAPM suggests that the impact should depend on an average of dividend tax rates across all investors, and that U.K. pension funds should reduce their holdings of the previously tax-favored asset: U.K. equities. Given that U.K. pension funds are small relative to the total size of the world capital market, a small open economy-type argument implies that the main effect of the reform would be to reduce U.K. pension funds' ownership of U.K. equities, with little impact on their price. We present evidence which is consistent with these hypotheses. We discuss why previous research (Bell and Jenkinson, 2002) reached a different conclusion.

 

[headrow]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im 32% down on them

Really ?

 

You've been advocating VOD for years , right from when they were 200p . On HPC there are still quotes from you buying at 181p saying they're cheap.

Anybody buying at them prices is 60% down. Even if you keep tagging the never ending bottoms you must be way more than 32% underwater as the share price hasn't risen for 6 years , only gone down.