Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Plan-b]

Its now a Smart Meter Scandal -- FFS 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/27/the-smart-meters-scandal-is-about-to-explode-in-our-faces/

[JMD]

On 27/03/2024 at 13:19, Mandalorian said:

To give him his due, Labour's Health Secretary Wes Streeting gets it and is always slagging off the NHS.

'It's a service, not a shrine' etc

But will he change his tune once he gets the actual job?

Yes I believe Wes Streeting has reform plans for the NHS, much like his other Labour front bench colleagues once they take charge of their own individual departments. 

One thing I've noticed is that when Streeting trots out the hackneyed phrase 'NHS treatment will remain free at the point of delivery', he seems to deliver it in a curiously technocratic/detached manner - and it might just be me - but i'm sure i can almost hear his brain crunching gears so as to prevent him from qualifying the statement?  (ie yes there will be free treatment, BUT there will also be non-free insurance/privately funded treatment!)

Edited March 28 by JMD

[Harley]

13 minutes ago, One percent said:

Nah. Daughter two worked there. No way would i want to work in that arcane nest of vipers. 

Wot, you have to turn up!  

[One percent]

3 minutes ago, Harley said:

Wot, you have to turn up!  

I think that’s optional. 

[Harley]

23 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Its now a Smart Meter Scandal -- FFS 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/03/27/the-smart-meters-scandal-is-about-to-explode-in-our-faces/

BBZ mentioned financialisation and here again it is.  Rather than invest in more capacity you just screw joe public.  A far better return.  Seeing it in the water industry up thread too.  Everywhere.  When something has to give (money or joe public), always joe public and his/her quality of life.  That's what living in a corporatocracy is like.

Edited March 28 by Harley

[HousePriceMania]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

 

[JMD]

18 hours ago, One percent said:

Not since thatcher closed all the mines, no.  

'The past is a foreign country'... Different times.

 

 

Edited March 28 by JMD

[Majorpain]

Gold is motoring, silver less so.  If i didn't know better it looks like its been managed within a very tight band for the last year.

[Cattle Prod]

Here is a very nice chart that sums up what I've been saying on here for years. Look at it, let it soak in, and think of the implications to every investement that sits on energy (all of them):

 

You've heard me talk about sustained capacity, spikes, and cycling production. There it is. 

- Look at the 'nameplate' 10.5 capacity, that the market is currently comfortable that Saudi can switch on 1.5m at 90 days notice. And they could...for a very short period of time. Then another multi year trough. It should be thought of more as an SPR sat in a tank farm (which a lot of it acutally is) rather tan an infinite tap. But that is the opportunity. 

Just to state facts, eyeballing that chart, KSA has reached its 'full' capacity four times in ten years. Each spike lasted about 2.5 months, so about 10 months total in 10 years. And the average for the last ten years has been well below that level. What level do you think is the sustained rate, and therefore what do you think is the real spare capacity?

Again, all public data, you just have to leave the MSM narratives, dogma and propaganda behind and look at the data.

Conclusion: The world is operating on a wafer thin supply demand balance, with demand currently well in excess of supply, with no major supply to come on line, and significant underinvestment over the last ten years, and the one growth area (US shale) in the process of peaking. I said all this in my first post in 2018. Such trend turns like a tanker, but turning it is, wide widespread macro implications.

[JMD]

18 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Perhaps it will turn out that Maggie did the UK a favour keeping 40 years, so far, of coal in the ground?

In the future when this country finally comes to it's senses and realises we will need natural resources like coal it will become an awesome legacy for the future.

I'd love a political party to vote for which pushed those kind of policies. No hope of it being elected of course, but I'd really enjoy our woke population and media being triggered by hearing sensible ideas.

Imagine a politician saying this country actually had its own sovereign natural-resource wealth fund, the proceeds from which could help fund the NHS, etc - and all that's needed is for our coal mines to be re-opened! 

...Politics and wider society has become toxic and is no fun - so if we are going to be divided, lets at least divide around substantial (and ultimately solvable, 'economic?') ideas, and ditch the destructive, depressingly vacuous and socially ruinous race/culture/morality baiting. 

Edited March 28 by JMD

[janch]

3 hours ago, Harley said:

venture out on the odd fighting patrol when the intel is good.

I've just done this a couple of times recently.  Firstly with RMV (Rightmove) and now with JD (JD Sports),  Both had some bad news (forgotten what!) and the price crashed.  I bought the dips as both seemed to be good well-known companies and hung on for good news and then cashed out. 

I just sold JD for a 13.5% return which I'm pleased with.  Their results were good apparently.  Of course it will probably continue upwards as did RMV after I'd sold but considering my other holdings which are for the long-term, these two have come good for a short term trade.  RMV would have been a good one to keep as it turned out but on the 5 year chart JD is not looking good so I'm glad to get shot.

@nirvana, I listened to your advice and BTFD.  To those on here who've been at this game for a while, this is probably a bit pathetic but to me it's been a valuable learning experience.

 

Also GJGB is motoring at last Hooray!

[Mandalorian]

4 hours ago, headrow said:

It's going to take me another 7 years to get all my assets shielded in an ISA by which time I'll be 64.

 

My target for doing my last ever tax return was meant to be when I was 60 , I will miss that but as I haven't worked for 6 years I'm OK with it.

 

I just want a quiet life and to be left alone and some Politician will no doubt derail my plan but all I can do is keep plugging away insulating myself from their nonsense. I feel like I've took a knife to a gunfight and the odds are stacked against me but what I have I'm fucking fighting for

Do you have a SIPP?  Might be worth having one to open up some more tax shelter beyond the £20k ISA allowance.

You can pay into a SIPP up to 75 and you get a nice 25% top up from HMG.

Maximum you can pay in is your annual income - that INCLUDES the 25% top up - so you can hide £20k in an ISA and then 100% of your EARNED income.  If you don't work then you can stick (I think) £2,880 per annum in and get the 25% on top making it (I think ) £3,600 p.a.

Might be worth looking at to bring that 7 years lower.

Edited March 28 by Mandalorian

[Mandalorian]

2 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

.

 

Edited March 28 by Mandalorian

[Mandalorian]

8 hours ago, headrow said:

 I know there are loads of stocks yielding way more than the 4.45% I'll get from Barclays

Don't make me tap the sign

[Mandalorian]

6 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I have sold more Gold to buy Silver, I must admit my arse is a bit twitchy,hopefully Silver will wake up soon.

I wondered where you put it for safe keeping.

Silver is many times the volume of gold for the same wealth.  It'll be more than twitching soon...

[Mandalorian]

4 hours ago, One percent said:

I have. Way ahead Of you there. As the old saying goes, if you can’t beat them, join them. 

I stopped working a 'proper' job 8 years ago.

I now earn more and work less than half the time.  While funnelling the cash into tax shelters (ISA/SIPPs)

Best thing I ever did.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Mandalorian said:

Do you have a SIPP?  Might be worth having one to open up some more tax shelter beyond the £20k ISA allowance.

You can pay into a SIPP up to 75 and you get a nice 25% top up from HMG.

Maximum you can pay in is your annual income - that INCLUDES the 25% top up - so you can hide £20k in an ISA and then 100% of your EARNED income.  If you don't work then you can stick (I think) £2,880 per annum in and get the 25% on top making it (I think ) £3,600 p.a.

Might be worth looking at to bring that 7 years lower.

Worth looking at, although some of above is incomplete and some is open to misinterpretation.  The tax rules, as usual, have a few twists and turns.  Not hopelessly difficult once you know the rules (although I have to do a refresh each year!) and worth doing so to maximise the tax benefit, etc.  How to invest in though is harder!

Edited March 28 by Harley

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, headrow said:

It's going to take me another 7 years to get all my assets shielded in an ISA by which time I'll be 64.

 

My target for doing my last ever tax return was meant to be when I was 60 , I will miss that but as I haven't worked for 6 years I'm OK with it.

 

I just want a quiet life and to be left alone and some Politician will no doubt derail my plan but all I can do is keep plugging away insulating myself from their nonsense. I feel like I've took a knife to a gunfight and the odds are stacked against me but what I have I'm fucking fighting for

If it's only going to take 7 years to get your assets shielded in an ISA, that's only £140k. Presumably a tax return is necessary because the money is liable to CGT/dividend and those allowances have now been mullered? As saving interest income, assuming you aren't working, you would have a £18,570 tax free allowance. Personal Allowance £12,570, Starter Rate for Savings £5,000 and Personal Savings Allowance £1,000

https://www.gov.uk/apply-tax-free-interest-on-savings

[Mandalorian]

13 minutes ago, Harley said:

Worth looking at, although some of above is incomplete and some is open to misinterpretation.  the tax rules, as usual, have a few twists and turns.  Not hopelessly difficult once you know the rules (although I have to do a refresh each year!) and worth doing so to maximise the tax benefit, etc.  How to invest in though is harder!

As always, there are loopholes and annoying caveats

As always, do own research on financial stuff and don't trust what a stranger on the internet says.

But as I understand it, the basic rules are what I put there. Subject to annoying caveats, loopholes and personal situation. Etc.

 

Just watch the usual two that catch people out-

1. the SIPP contribution limit is EARNED income or the smaller figure I mentioned.  (Rent, dividends, interest etc don't count as they aren't 'earnings'.)

2. the limit includes the 25% top up

Edited March 28 by Mandalorian

[Harley]

1 hour ago, janch said:

To those on here who've been at this game for a while, this is probably a bit pathetic but to me it's been a valuable learning experience.

I had a successful period of buying bad news.  Like Tescos way back.  But I'm easing on such trades now as we focus on preserving such gains and the rest. 

Actually, more like I'm trying not to as we have a few stock trades from a pool of value div earners like Devon Energy which we are riding since the latest turn.  A good percentage up but not that big a monetary gain in the overall scheme of things as we're hardly going to put a massive amount of money down on one stock like that.  So fun but not life changing. 

So like say (for example) £10k with a max 23% gain (£2,300) in DVN versus say £50K in SSAC with a max 11% gain (£5,500).  That's just being the latest run in SSAC to compare like with like.  From a risk point of view DVN is one stock and SSAC is 2,500 stocks.  DVN has a 1 year (total) return per risk of 0 while the SSAC score is 2.27 (and it's a similar picture for longer periods).  And tbh, it's easier to trend follow SSAC given the volume, no ex-div bouncy bouncy, etc.

But then it was more fun dealing in DVN!

PS:  I'm going to mention them again 'cause IMO they're excellent - I pulled the DVN scores from JustETF.  Yep they actually detail some 13,500 stocks like that present in ETFs:  https://www.justetf.com/uk/stock-profiles/

Edited March 28 by Harley

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Mandalorian said:

As always, there are loopholes and annoying caveats

As always, do own research on financial stuff and don't trust what a stranger on the internet says.

But as I understand it, the basic rules are what I put there. Subject to annoying caveats, loopholes and personal situation. Etc.

 

Just watch the usual two that catch people out-

1. the SIPP contribution limit is EARNED income or the smaller figure I mentioned.  (Rent, dividends, interest etc don't count as they aren't 'earnings'.)

2. the limit includes the 25% top up

Indeed I learnt tax way back and the regular exceptions to the exceptions drove me mad.  I recently did a tax plan for a salary sacrifice, company scheme (luckily DC!) plus SIPP, with utilisation of carried forward unused reliefs, for someone who could be impacted by tapering!  And I've already forgotten how to do half of that!  Plus I initially made several mistakes!

PS:  And there's the newish £10K allowance which is nice for those who want to ease back, tax plan, etc.

PPS: "Rent" in the form of FHLs does count as Net Relevant Earnings, which is another annoyance about FHLs.

Edited March 28 by Harley

[M S E Refugee]

48 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

I wondered where you put it for safe keeping.

Silver is many times the volume of gold for the same wealth.  It'll be more than twitching soon...

Its safely tucked away but you're right it's a nightmare to store.

I'm looking forward to swapping out for some Gold, if and when the Gold/Silver ratio snaps back.

[Red Debt Redemption]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

What a depressing reply BBZ.WHen you put it like the above,it really does present a fait accompli.the wave is going to wash over,we're jsut picking how we hit the wave.

This converasation has made me think of selling our recently purcahsed BT(£1.05),its out only UK centric stock but reading my inital summary of the budget pie charts and your response,and BT running in a winner is like winning the lottery but finding your gonna get paid in Zim dollars.....

Anecdotal alert but I was at the park with the kids two days back,chatted to a bloke I've known sometime.turns out he sa mortgage udnerwriter.He started coming out with the old 'rates are gonna come down' routine,so I dropped a few uqestions in about CPI/RPI mismeasurements,GDP calcualtions,then I started asking him his views on the state of many High St bank balance sheets ie stage 1/2/3 debts,Natiowniwdes having £40bn in IO BTL laons(enough to sink them without their dog poo resi mortgage book imho).

ong and short of it is,he really didn't have a clue bless him.He goes 'I thought you were a paramedic'.........says a lot when the amublance service know more about teh systemic risks to the banking system than the people overseeing loan issuance.....but it's where we are.

BT will get sold this afternoon and used to buy ecora

Balls deep in ecora now thanks brah. Will keep an eye on compass its went back up a little.

[Mandalorian]

13 minutes ago, Harley said:

Indeed I learnt tax way back and the regular exceptions to the exceptions drove me mad.  I recently did a tax plan for a salary sacrifice, company scheme (luckily DC!) plus SIPP, with utilisation of carried forward unused reliefs, for someone who could be impacted by tapering!  And I've already forgotten how to do half of that!

PS:  And there's the newish £10K allowance which is nice for those who want to ease back, etc.

PPS: "Rent" in the form of FHLs does count as Net Relevant Earnings, which is another annoyance about FHLs.

FHL?

3 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

Its safely tucked away but you're right it's a nightmare to store.

I'm looking forward to swapping out for some Gold, if and when the Gold/Silver ratio snaps back.

Your sphincter will thank you.

[Harley]

19 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

FHL?

Furnished Holiday Lettings.  There's another thread expressing annoyance about the tax treatment, COVID bungs, etc for these (and their mark on local communities) so we can add this little tax benefit to that as well!

https://hartleypensions.com/pensions/sipp/contributions/

Relevant UK earnings means any one or more of the following types of income:

• employment income, such as: pay, wages, bonus, overtime, or commission and other P11D benefits.
• income from self-employment or a partnership
• redundancy payment above the £30,000 tax exempt threshold
• income from a UK and/or EEA furnished holiday lettings business
• patent income, where the individual alone or jointly devised the invention

An example of it possibly being worth getting into the detail - like P11D benefits (why not since you're taxed on them!), patents (maybe applies to a certain poster or two!), redundancy payments (could be a biggy), etc.

Full monty (if the latest): https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/pensions-tax-manual/ptm044100#earnings

Edited March 28 by Harley