Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[One percent]

2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Excessively black complexions, something not really seen up North as the long term residents from sun burnt climbs fade rapidly after a few winters of gloom.

Not since thatcher closed all the mines, no.  

[SpectrumFX]

43 minutes ago, GTM said:

For a large part of Hampshire the "local" school for kids with a physical disability, but who are not mentally challenged is in Winchester.

Try finding a place to live anywhere near Winchester with sufficient ground floor space for a kid who can't climb stairs for less than 7 figures.

Fair point.

Which draws out the wider point of where's the planning and thought in how we plan this sort of infrastructure?

And as ever we see the damage that has been done -- and continues to be done -- by successive governments propping up house prices to ludicrous levels.

Edited March 27 by SpectrumFX

[Ash4781b]

16 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Excessively black complexions, something not really seen up North as the long term residents from sun burnt climbs fade rapidly after a few winters of gloom.

I saw a chap delivering take away on a moped. Face as dark as coal. I mean really dark. Had sandals on riding a moped!

[One percent]

4 minutes ago, SpectrumFX said:

Fair point.

What's draws out the wider point of where's the planning and thought in how we plan this sort of infrastructure?

And as ever we see the damage that has been done -- and continues to be done -- by successive governments propping up house prices to ludicrous levels.

There is no planning, just the greedy pursuit of money.  An example. Massive estate going up round one of the secondary schools here.  School roles are falling so a school is going to be shut. They are shutting the one where all the new build is going. Why?  Because it’s worth more as building land. 

[Plan-b]

31 minutes ago, One percent said:

Not since thatcher closed all the mines, no.  

Perhaps it will turn out that Maggie did the UK a favour keeping 40 years, so far, of coal in the ground?

In the future when this country finally comes to it's senses and realises we will need natural resources like coal it will become an awesome legacy for the future.

[One percent]

4 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Perhaps it will turn out that Maggie did the UK a favour keeping 40 years, so far, of coal in the ground?

In the future when this country finally comes to it's senses and realises we will need natural resources like coal it will become an awesome legacy for the future.

The country isn’t coming to its senses until we collectively face real hardship. 

[baffledbyzirp]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

and @AWW I think it's likely higher but it depends what and how you count as some costs are offloaded to local councils in terms of scoail care aiui.So youlll see from budget docs that Health spendign is circa £250bn for 24/25 but NHS will be lwoer as not all ehalth spendo is NHS.soem of it may get back doored to councils

worth noting from budget docs that income tax and NI jsut about cover the welfare spendo.

Hard times theyr are a coming I fear.Lot of peopel going to get a shcok when the cash runs out or they get paid in worthless specie.

chart here worth reading.sicne 2000 GDP has doubled,pulbic spending has tripled.national debt has gone from £400bn to £2.5 trilion.

zanu troy and zanu lab have utterly shafted the Biritsh public

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/public-spending-statistics-release-july-2023/public-spending-statistics-july-2023

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-budget-2024/spring-budget-2024-html#public-sector-receipts-and-spending

 

[baffledbyzirp]

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

and @AWW I think it's likely higher but it depends what and how you count as some costs are offloaded to local councils in terms of scoail care aiui.So youlll see from budget docs that Health spendign is circa £250bn for 24/25 but NHS will be lwoer as not all ehalth spendo is NHS.soem of it may get back doored to councils

worth noting from budget docs that income tax and NI jsut about cover the welfare spendo.

Hard times theyr are a coming I fear.Lot of peopel going to get a shcok when the cash runs out or they get paid in worthless specie.

chart here worth reading.sicne 2000 GDP has doubled,pulbic spending has tripled.national debt has gone from £400bn to £2.5 trilion.

zanu troy and zanu lab have utterly shafted the Biritsh public

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/public-spending-statistics-release-july-2023/public-spending-statistics-july-2023

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-budget-2024/spring-budget-2024-html#public-sector-receipts-and-spending

Amen Sancho the numbers don't add up.

I read recently some stats that inspired me to undertake some back of an envelope mathematics. The Tax Payers Alliance recently published figures claiming that acknowledged government debt represents circa £180,000 per person in the country and £430,000 per household.

According to the OBR the cost of servicing the national debt for the year ending 2023 was just over £112 Billion. There are approximately 27,000,000 working in the private sector (DWP), including part-time workers and those who earn below the tax threshold. By process of elimination our interest free mortgage payments last year were somewhere north of £4000 for each productive member of society. We simply cannot repay what is owed let alone service the debt which continues to pile up.

Critically the system requires liquidity. Any shock such as a bank failure will set the chain reaction in motion. Thus we have financialised education, health, the public sector, property, sport, the old eastern block, utilities, old age, local taxation etc. via ever expanding credit. The system is a ratchet, only capable of moving in one direction. The gig is up. The end is inevitable. Buy gold and hibernate! GLA sorry to be so pessimistic. 

[Mandalorian]

27 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

Perhaps it will turn out that Maggie did the UK a favour keeping 40 years, so far, of coal in the ground?

In the future when this country finally comes to it's senses and realises we will need natural resources like coal it will become an awesome legacy for the future.

Labour closed more pits in the 70s than Thatcher ever did

[Plan-b]

8 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Labour closed more pits in the 70s than Thatcher ever did

Just goes to show whoever is in power it makes no difference, even 50 years ago and beyond.

None of tptb have the good of the country and its people in mind just their own agendas, profits and hatred of the unwashed masses.

If voting made any difference they wouldn't let us do it.

Edited March 27 by Plan-b

[montecristo]

Must now be enough no confidence letters.

[AWW]

7 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Labour closed more pits in the 70s than Thatcher ever did

And the NUM behaved like cunts to all the support staff working at the pits who were in a different union that wasn't striking and had to cross the picket to get paid and feed their families. The miners all keep warm and we'll fed in the church halls while calling the cleaners and office staff scabs and laughing when they sold their cars and pawned their jewellery to pay the mortgage. The NUM did more to divide pit villages than Maggie ever did.

[AWW]

Scargill proved himself to be a typical socialist cunt, on the take and telling people to do as he said not as he did.

[Plan-b]

6 minutes ago, montecristo said:

Must now be enough no confidence letters.

Collapse by the end of the year is certain...

[Hunty]

3 hours ago, MithrilVest said:

I didn't really want to talk about it publicly, but it's me, I'm cashing in my PMs to buy Furnished Holiday Lets in Whitby having scanned a number of other threads for investment strategies. Really hoping such luminaries as One Percent and Spygirl support this latest business venture.

 

 

You just want to be a contrarian and close the DurhamBorn.

[Long time lurking]

 

[Long time lurking]

 

[Mandalorian]

1 hour ago, montecristo said:

Must now be enough no confidence letters.

They know the game is up.

Time to hand the shitty stick to Labour.

[JMD]

22 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Your comment made me think of this gem of a stat from the wrold gold council

a 22m cubed sqaure.........someone on here once said you're not buying gold,you're buying the enrgy it took to mine it.....poss @Cattle Prod

this stat cant be right

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/how-much-gold?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=GOLDHUB%3A+Your+Weekly+Gold+Market+Round-up%2C+March+22%2C+2024

I've often heard commentators say all physical gold would fit into 3 olympic sized swimming pools (50*25*2m) so that 22 cubic metres figure does sound correct. 

Edited March 27 by JMD

[jamtomorrow]

I was scanning the comments section of the latest SEEDs and came across this absolute gem from Dr. Tim:

Most regimes are defenders of inequality, i.e. the right of some to be better off than others. I’m no Marxist, and there are arguments both ways on the principles of this. Why shouldn’t people enjoy the benefits of hard work?

But an acceptance of zero growth would compromise the concept of legitimate inequalities, and open us up to arguments along the lines of ‘why should some people be allowed to own two properties when others have nowhere to live?’

Up to now, the argument is that, in a growing economy, those ‘others’ can acquire homes through hard work – in other words ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’.

If the tide is going out, though, questions of fair distribution move front-centre of the debate.

Once again, I am left thinking about my work ethic, where it came from, and whether it is still useful to me if things continue to unravel.

[Harley]

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The biggest financial mistake i ever made was going to an auction when i was 27ish to buy a house in Robin Hoods Bay,but backed out at the last minute.It went for £62k,i had £30k plus the mortgage for it.The only reason i did not buy it was because i had just bought my house i live in now and decided i didnt want to risk it and i did not want to sell any shares if i lost my job etc.£400k that house now and 26 years of renting it out and using it myself.I would of likely sold it by now of course but still.No wonder these places lost all the locals.

Sounds like gold!  Up 650% in just 20 years in GBP. 

PS:  Or rather fiat down 650%.

Edited March 28 by Harley

[belfastchild]

10 hours ago, montecristo said:

Must now be enough no confidence letters.

Someone suggested to me yesterday it would be 11th July with counting on the 12th just to please the unionists over here.

Then again the same fucker told me it would be May and they already had their election posters printed up so I stuck a few quid on it.

[Pip321]

17 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

I was scanning the comments section of the latest SEEDs and came across this absolute gem from Dr. Tim:

Most regimes are defenders of inequality, i.e. the right of some to be better off than others. I’m no Marxist, and there are arguments both ways on the principles of this. Why shouldn’t people enjoy the benefits of hard work?

But an acceptance of zero growth would compromise the concept of legitimate inequalities, and open us up to arguments along the lines of ‘why should some people be allowed to own two properties when others have nowhere to live?’

Up to now, the argument is that, in a growing economy, those ‘others’ can acquire homes through hard work – in other words ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’.

If the tide is going out, though, questions of fair distribution move front-centre of the debate.

Once again, I am left thinking about my work ethic, where it came from, and whether it is still useful to me if things continue to unravel.

Whilst traditionalist left leaning (whatever that really means nowadays)…..this is just so far away from common sense and reflects the madness we are seeing.

You need to motivate and reward otherwise it becomes a race to the bottom. Also those who choose not to work need to be dealt with brutally otherwise everyone suffers. 

The issue is we are currently led across the world by corrupt leaders. 

We are seeing ‘left leaning’ language but liking darkies, puffs and women in decent jobs doesn’t make you left…it’s a front. Bennies for all are to help citizens it’s to feed the machine, takes money from us and gives it back to the chosen few. 

Bidens son with deals in Ukraine, Sir Keir leads Labour, Sunak the unelected puppet….absolutely non of this is politics, idealism or even a desire to help citizens….its the worst I have ever seen. 

And from this will come populist movements solutions that need to radically push against what is happening maybe radically left…eg equality for all with wank proposals you highlight in the post above ….or far right eg kill everyone on bennies.

We just need a bit of common sense….something that lets the productive thrive, protects our shores appropriately and those truly in need be supported to broadly acceptable level of existence (nope that’s not a new car, phone and tv…but a decent space to live, food and medical care)

It wouldn’t surprise me if a traditionalist right leaning capitalist on this thread and me as a traditionalist leftie drafted policies up and they would overlap by 97%. And be almost totally different from what we are seeing today ie immigration, NHS criteria, benefits, workers protection, trans madness, rewards for risk taken, buying bombs for Ukraine etc etc 

Even the taxi for kids is balmy. It would be interesting to check the mobility of recipient, distance travel and other income being used by some families. Someone mentioned wheelchairs…my experience (albeit limited) is those poor kids in wheelchairs go to normal schools and the families make their own way there in a desire to integrate, prepare and normalise.

Its an interesting world….and a worry when Joey Barton is more on the button than our unelected PM. 🤦🏻‍♂️

 

[Harley]

10 hours ago, One percent said:

The country isn’t coming to its senses until we collectively face real hardship. 

But before "collectively" they'll pick off each group (bar the obvious one) one by one.

[One percent]

6 minutes ago, Harley said:

But before "collectively" they'll pick off each group (bar the obvious one) one by one.

They've already started on those who are actually productive.