Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Formerly]

33 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

10.8 + 50.7 + 38.5 = 100, I assume people hit a threshold of time that qualifies for never worked. Those have increased since the last census (figure in the bracket) as more stay unemployed for longer and then qualify.

As I suggested. However it's hiding facts behind poor wording. If those figures are correct, then it's more accurate to say that, of those out of work, 89.2% have not worked for 12 months or longer.

That's a shocking statistic, even more so than the already shocking 50.7% suggested.

[TNS]

1 hour ago, Colliedog said:

A friend who was a taxi driver about 10 years ago used to take a special needs child to school and back. What pissed him off was that they were 2 Range Rover's sat in the drive.

Heard of a recent kid getting turned down a place as they had no free transport left, soon as the parents said they could do it (both have cars anyhow), place available.

I assume alot must just milk it.

[AWW]

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

For the first time this century, the survey asked the public whether they would be willing to pay more tax to fund the NHS, with half of respondents agreeing that they would. Wealthier respondents and Labour voters were both more likely to agree.

Interesting how it's reported though. They could equally have written, "Poorer people and those who didn't vote for Jeremy Corbyn were more likely to favour structural change"

[AWW]

2 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

The "Would you pay more tax for the NHS" question displays how full of shit 95% of the population is better than anything else.

Anyone who so desires can make a donation to HMRC. So the obvious question for that 50% is WHY THE FUCK AREN'T YOU ALREADY PAYING EXTRA TAX VOLUNTARILY??? 

The answer, of course, is because they don't mean a word of it.

"I welcome paying more tax" of course always means "I welcome other people paying more tax"

[AWW]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

How many taxpayers are there versus the NHS budget of £137 billion. 
 

I also think most people do not understand numbers in the slightest. Once you’re talking in millions, billions and trillions it’s all the same to the average person - a very big number.

32m income tax payers, so on average more than £4k per taxpayer.

The "envy of the world" nonsense is purely a British leftie delusion. We've got leftie friends from Germany who think the NHS is a joke and the British are mugs to think it's envied by anyone.

[BurntBread]

18 minutes ago, AWW said:

32m income tax payers, so on average more than £4k per taxpayer.

The "envy of the world" nonsense is purely a British leftie delusion. We've got leftie friends from Germany who think the NHS is a joke and the British are mugs to think it's envied by anyone.

I think the cost is closer to £200billion if you include associated services. I seem to remember reading that from a @sancho panza post, but could be mistaken.

[spygirl]

On 24/03/2024 at 17:33, spygirl said:

In what seems a long time ago .. there was this -

Middlesbrough study reveals generations of welfare scroungers are a myth

https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/10103159.middlesbrough-study-reveals-generations-welfare-scroungers-myth/

THE idea that children, parents and grandparents live a life on benefits in worklessfamilies is untrue, according to researche

The report - based on extensive research in Middlesbrough and Glasgow - examined whether there really are three generations of families who have never worked and whether unemployment in families can be explained by a so-called 'culture of worklessness' - by people's attitudes and behaviour.

Professors Robert MacDonald and Tracy Shildrick from Teesside University and Andy Furlong from Glasgow University, carried out intensive fieldwork but were unable to find families with three generations in which no-one had ever worked

There was a big hoohah amongst the lefties going see ! No such thing. Everyone works.

Without going into boro, I could think of several cases where this applies Charmain, Sharon n Bert, all sitting on bennies fir mist if nit all their life.

Do you know what the 'intensive fieldwork' was?

Bare in mind this was from social workers at the poly ie laziest of the laziest.

Ringing on doorbells and asking if people were a bunch of dossers.

It's a bit like approaching people in a shitehole pub and asking if they've looked at Pyscho Daves daughters tits. You're not going to get a Yes.

It would take a few hours - call it a week - of getting the NI DB search up. No need for grossly overpaid fuckwit lefty academic.

You go thru the NO DB on person by person. You can correlate relatives easy. Then you can look for earned NI/PAYE history.

 

 

Using the ONS fancy pants tool - 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/customprofiles/build/#E06000002

Employment history

Category	Middlesbrough	England
Not in employment: Worked in the last 12 months	12%	13.2%
Not in employment: Not worked in the last 12 months	50.7%	61.1%
Not in employment: Never worked	37.3%	25.6%

•  
   Middlesbrough
•  
   England

Not in employment: Worked in the last 12 months 12.0%13.2%

 

 

Not in employment: Not worked in the last 12 months 50.7%61.1%

 

 

Not in employment: Never worked 37.3%25.6%

 

 

% of people aged 16 years and over not in employment

If Im reading the numbers correctly, almost 40% of boro pop has never worked.

Id doesnttake genius to assume that this will be multi-gens of same family.

 

 

 

[AlfredTheLittle]

1 hour ago, TNS said:

Heard of a recent kid getting turned down a place as they had no free transport left, soon as the parents said they could do it (both have cars anyhow), place available.

I assume alot must just milk it.

My son goes to a special school, he's the only kid that doesn't go in by taxi - he either cycles or gets a bus, and I managed to get a bus pass off the council for him. It took a long time for the school to get their heads around him going in on his own, and they still threaten to put him in a taxi when he's frequently late!

I would imagine that if councils weren't paying for school transport, taxis would be a lot more expensive, so effectively it's a taxpayer subsidy to people who take taxis. There probably isn't an industry left in the UK which isn't now in some way relying on the government as the ultimate provider of their income, which shows how far govt overreach has gone.

[Castlevania]

Are the children that special needs e.g. in a wheelchair that they can’t get the bus?

[AlfredTheLittle]

47 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Are the children that special needs e.g. in a wheelchair that they can’t get the bus?

I think the rules are that if the council can't offer a suitable school within a certain number of miles, then they have to provide transport. I have no idea what the needs of the other kids are, if it was up to me I'd take the taxi, but my son didn't want to.

If i made the rules things would be different, personally I'd want all kids to go to the local school and mix, so transport wouldn't be such an issue.

[Mandalorian]

12 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

For the first time this century, the survey asked the public whether they would be willing to pay more tax to fund the NHS, with half of respondents agreeing that they would. Wealthier respondents and Labour voters were both more likely to agree.

As always, what was the SPECIFIC question asked?

"Should people pay more tax ring fenced for the NHS to treat the ill and reduce waiting lists?" will produce a yes outcome.  Treating the ill and reducing waiting lists wouldn't actually happen of course.

"Would you personally pay 2p in the pound more tax for the NHS?" would produce a no outcome.

"Would you pay more tax that the NHS can waste on bureaucrats?" will produce a no outcome.  This would happen.

 

So do forgive me if I don't believe that half of the general public would pay more tax.

12 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

While more than seven in 10 people said GP and hospital waits were the main problem, the other top concerns included a lack of staff, a lack of funding, and the NHS wasting money

What lack of funding?  It's had a REAL TERMS increase every single year since the 1950s!  Even during so-called 'austerity'.

[Mandalorian]

4 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

The fact these figures are available implies to me an attempt is being made to prepare the ground for change. Normally this sort of waste would be well and truly buried in the figures, rather than neatly seperated out to enable these sorts of examples to be cited in the press.

Hopefully someone gets it and is trying to turn the ship.

To give him his due, Labour's Health Secretary Wes Streeting gets it and is always slagging off the NHS.

'It's a service, not a shrine' etc

But will he change his tune once he gets the actual job?

[Mandalorian]

2 hours ago, AWW said:

32m income tax payers, so on average more than £4k per taxpayer.

The "envy of the world" nonsense is purely a British leftie delusion. We've got leftie friends from Germany who think the NHS is a joke and the British are mugs to think it's envied by anyone.

'Envy of the world'?

They miss out the word 'third'.

[Joncrete Cungle]

2 hours ago, AWW said:

32m income tax payers, so on average more than £4k per taxpayer.

The "envy of the world" nonsense is purely a British leftie delusion. We've got leftie friends from Germany who think the NHS is a joke and the British are mugs to think it's envied by anyone.

The wife of one of the Romanians at work needs an operation. So highly do they think of the sainted NHS that she is going back to Romania for a couple of months for the operation and rehabilitation.

[belfastchild]

1 hour ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

I would imagine that if councils weren't paying for school transport, taxis would be a lot more expensive, so effectively it's a taxpayer subsidy to people who take taxis. There probably isn't an industry left in the UK which isn't now in some way relying on the government as the ultimate provider of their income, which shows how far govt overreach has gone.

Ive found it virtually impossible to get a taxi here to the airport for an early morning flight. The school run is often stated as its contract and they dont have taxi drivers just sitting about anymore for the odd airport run.

[Heart's Ease]

.

Edited March 27 by Heart's Ease

[sancho panza]

jsut  mulling over what appears to be a fine little royalty streamer we've discusse dbefore.

decl up front: we have a 0.7% or so postion in this at circa the £1-10 level and am weighing a larger investment.prob double the postion.

resutls released today and heres some highlights.market cap £200mn

 

Divi for the year held at $0.085 piad quarterly. so a near 9% yield.although moving forwards theyre going to be putting divi at circa 30% FCF which means a trip near term to £0.04 I belive.WIll read the rdetial later.

super exposure to commodities tho imho

https://www.ecora-resources.com/application/files/5817/1151/7043/2024.03.26_-_Results_-_Final.pdf

Edited March 27 by sancho panza

[Noallegiance]

17 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

jsut  mulling over what appears to be a fine little royalty streamer we've discusse dbefore.

decl up front: we have a 0.7% or so postion in this at circa the £1-10 level and am weighing a larger investment.prob double the postion.

resutls released today and heres some highlights.market cap £200mn

 

Divi for the year held at $0.085 piad quarterly. so a near 9% yield.

https://www.ecora-resources.com/application/files/5817/1151/7043/2024.03.26_-_Results_-_Final.pdf

#got

[Onsamui]

How To Make A Mint: The Cryptography Of Anonymous Electronic Cash | Armstrong Economics The US government released this document in 1996, 27 years ago. Bitcoin was allegedly anonymously created in 2009, and numerous other blockchain-based payment coins have followed. This, paired with the push for CBDC, where the government simply does not need to pretend payments are anonymous, should make one question the security and longevity of cryptocurrencies......

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, BurntBread said:

I think the cost is closer to £200billion if you include associated services. I seem to remember reading that from a @sancho panza post, but could be mistaken.

and @AWW I think it's likely higher but it depends what and how you count as some costs are offloaded to local councils in terms of scoail care aiui.So youlll see from budget docs that Health spendign is circa £250bn for 24/25 but NHS will be lwoer as not all ehalth spendo is NHS.soem of it may get back doored to councils

worth noting from budget docs that income tax and NI jsut about cover the welfare spendo.

Hard times theyr are a coming I fear.Lot of peopel going to get a shcok when the cash runs out or they get paid in worthless specie.

chart here worth reading.sicne 2000 GDP has doubled,pulbic spending has tripled.national debt has gone from £400bn to £2.5 trilion.

zanu troy and zanu lab have utterly shafted the Biritsh public

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/public-spending-statistics-release-july-2023/public-spending-statistics-july-2023

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-budget-2024/spring-budget-2024-html#public-sector-receipts-and-spending

Edited March 27 by sancho panza

[Harley]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

jsut  mulling over what appears to be a fine little royalty streamer we've discusse dbefore.

decl up front: we have a 0.7% or so postion in this at circa the £1-10 level and am weighing a larger investment.prob double the postion.

resutls released today and heres some highlights.market cap £200mn

 

Divi for the year held at $0.085 piad quarterly. so a near 9% yield.although moving forwards theyre going to be putting divi at circa 30% FCF which means a trip near term to £0.04 I belive.WIll read the rdetial later.

super exposure to commodities tho imho

https://www.ecora-resources.com/application/files/5817/1151/7043/2024.03.26_-_Results_-_Final.pdf

Fwiw, our checks on div streams are:

. To compare annual net income cash flow (i.e. the raw initial operating cash flow) to dividend payments for the last 5 or so years.  We look for steady div payments covered by a steady cash flow.  No fake funding by reducing working capital, etc.  

. Recalculate the ttm yield figure as it can quite often be wrong or misleading.

. Look at the type of divs, being very cautious with special divs for most companies.

Amusingly, an investment trust came up today paying a regular 10%.  We wondered what it held, only to find it was the company itself, not one of its funds!! 

Mind you, the price has had a torrid time and was near the all time low but....!

PS:  Never really understood/been comfortable with FCF.  Just show us the real cash generated by what the company actually does for a living!

Edited March 27 by Harley

[Harley]

29 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

and @AWW I think it's likely higher but it depends what and how you count as some costs are offloaded to local councils in terms of scoail care aiui.So youlll see from budget docs that Health spendign is circa £250bn for 24/25 but NHS will be lwoer as not all ehalth spendo is NHS.soem of it may get back doored to councils

worth noting from budget docs that income tax and NI jsut about cover the welfare spendo.

Hard times theyr are a coming I fear.Lot of peopel going to get a shcok when the cash runs out or they get paid in worthless specie.

chart here worth reading.sicne 2000 GDP has doubled,pulbic spending has tripled.national debt has gone from £400bn to £2.5 trilion.

zanu troy and zanu lab have utterly shafted the Biritsh public

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/public-spending-statistics-release-july-2023/public-spending-statistics-july-2023

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-budget-2024/spring-budget-2024-html#public-sector-receipts-and-spending

I have two chainsaws (German made, not Argentinian) standing by for the call!  Think I'll be needing both!

Edited March 27 by Harley

[JMD]

On 26/03/2024 at 16:26, Errol said:

Gold held completely outside the system will be crucial.

I agree, but other wealth assets are available...  Though unfortunately these other luxury investments are not so straightforward as gold to buy and invest in. Pity because I think some diamond (only +8% over 10 years) allocation would be good if it had a recognised trusted quality standard* to give confidence to the buyer. 

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/luxury-goods-value-10-years/

 

*Horizon Kinetics offer their US clients this innovative investment product, but it sounds a bit weird (a diamond coin-bar?)

https://www.fa-mag.com/news/diamonds-may-be-an-investors--best-friend--the-diamond-standard-fund-said-68031.html

 

Edited March 27 by JMD

[Errol]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

jsut  mulling over what appears to be a fine little royalty streamer we've discusse dbefore.

decl up front: we have a 0.7% or so postion in this at circa the £1-10 level and am weighing a larger investment.prob double the postion.

resutls released today and heres some highlights.market cap £200mn

 

Divi for the year held at $0.085 piad quarterly. so a near 9% yield.although moving forwards theyre going to be putting divi at circa 30% FCF which means a trip near term to £0.04 I belive.WIll read the rdetial later.

super exposure to commodities tho imho

https://www.ecora-resources.com/application/files/5817/1151/7043/2024.03.26_-_Results_-_Final.pdf

Agree. I already hold this and will buy more.

[Long time lurking]

Same shit being promised ,different country 

#Bread&Circuses