Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Funn3r]

4 minutes ago, Spiney Norman said:

?

By tax do you stamp duty?  It's only payable at 0.5% on UK incorparated stock, no biggie when you consider the size of gain or loss over the long term. I wouldn't let the stamp duty preclude you from buying UK stocks if you see value there. I know its annoying but for me thats all it is, is an annoyance.

The government kick me in the balls for tax. I pay an astronomical amount.  Month after month another kick in the balls. Saying this one's only a small extra kick in the balls doesn't work for me.

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

The government kick me in the balls for tax. I pay an astronomical amount.  Month after month another kick in the balls. Saying this one's only a small extra kick in the balls doesn't work for me.

I hate the stamp duty on some share purchase, it boils my piss, especially in a supposed tax free ISA that I have already paid income tax on the funds in the first place.

Wankers the lot of them.

[Spiney Norman]

26 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

The government kick me in the balls for tax. I pay an astronomical amount.  Month after month another kick in the balls. Saying this one's only a small extra kick in the balls doesn't work for me.

I know, and I agree with you the bastards do it to me too.

But we are here to make money from opportunity. If an opportunity  arises best to take that oppurtinty and make some money.

Let me put it another way. If I sent you a cheque for £500 (an opportunity) and told you had to pay tax on it, would you  cash it? Or would you refuse to cash it because of the tax?  (lost opportunity)

I guess what i'm trying to say is I don't let emotions or anger at the govenment interfere with decisions about making money. I take the opportunity should it arise.

 

Edited March 29 by Spiney Norman

[Starsend]

33 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

The government kick me in the balls for tax. I pay an astronomical amount.  Month after month another kick in the balls. Saying this one's only a small extra kick in the balls doesn't work for me.

 

[King Penda]

25 minutes ago, Spiney Norman said:

I know, and I agree with you the bastards do it to me too.

But we are here to make money from opportunity. If an opportunity  arises best to take that oppurtinty and make some money.

Let me put it another way. If I sent you a cheque for £500 (an opportunity) and told you had to pay tax on it, would you  cash it? Or would you refuse to cash it because of the tax?  (lost opportunity)

I guess what i'm trying to say is I don't let emotions or anger at the govenment interfere with decisions about making money. I take the opportunity should it arise.

 

The dilemmas you lot have make me laugh compared to the jams of society. I’m not sure they are even aware of what’s going on other than McDonald’s have gone up in price . 

[Bobthebuilder]

12 minutes ago, King Penda said:

The dilemmas you lot have make me laugh compared to the jams of society. I’m not sure they are even aware of what’s going on other than McDonald’s have gone up in price . 

You have kind of summed up the thread there tho mate, its all about moving hopefully one step before the masses. If you know Mcdonalds is going up then plan for it, or do without the chips.

Edit to add, I would ditch the shite sugary drink before the chips.

Edited March 29 by Bobthebuilder

[King Penda]

38 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

You have kind of summed up the thread there tho mate, its all about moving hopefully one step before the masses. If you know Mcdonalds is going up then plan for it, or do without the chips.

Edit to add, I would ditch the shite sugary drink before the chips.

I know but sitting on the sidelines has the money men talk how to make money out of the shit show that’s coming does make me smile . There must be hundreds of thousands maybe millions of jams earning way over 90k single or has a couple is irrelevant that are totaly oblivious to anything . Other than the obvious ie McDonald’s price rises .ps most jams are not even in a position to do anything anyway they are not jams for nothing they can only respond to events not move before them . It’s not imo even what you earn it’s a mindset whether you earn 20k or 200k .  It’s about preserving what you have and getting ready for anything the system throws at you 

Edited March 29 by King Penda

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

The government kick me in the balls for tax. I pay an astronomical amount.  Month after month another kick in the balls. Saying this one's only a small extra kick in the balls doesn't work for me.

The stamp duty is about 16 days dividends from BAT one off.I get over two months income from those divis yearly compared to my last  two months wages when i retired.However the BAT divis in the ISA are tax free and no NI so are worth roughly 32% more than my last two months wages.ie the 0.5% tax makes no difference when you buy and hold for a long time and holding them in an ISA is a very very good deal.

[Bien Pensant]

14 hours ago, belfastchild said:

That was my understanding as well. However (and again this is just off the top of my head), if you sold or reassigned copyright/ip then it could either be income or capital gains.

That was my assumption but the HMRC manual I linked to seems to be saying that it's pretty much always treated as income, which I found surprising.

14 hours ago, belfastchild said:

Another thing about IP/Copyright, in the past any infringment can been treated as 'damages' so tax free. I went through a phase of having a US IP lawyer sue a lot of corporations as most if not all of my work is registered in the US. AFAIK This only works if the suit is for damage to reputation etc as opposed to loss of income, so Id only go after the people who misrepresented my work.

That was my understanding too, it's not 'income' and it's specifically exempt from CGT - CG13030 - Compensation: personal compensation or damages.

Edited March 29 by Bien Pensant

[Harley]

4 hours ago, Errol said:

Tavi is made fun of here, but what is the performance of the Crescat funds he manage/advises?

 

I have no idea who he is and have no ill feelings.  Just that particular post was crap for several reasons as was the NEM. His points may be valid but the rationales in the two posts are silly versus the real rationales.

Edited March 29 by Harley

[Harley]

The rather silly and rude debate over divs continues.  Each to their own.  To us total return matters, however that's made up.  We are biased through experience.  We've been there.  We had built sizeable div stock portfolios by 2020 and lost a fair chunk in the crash, many never to recover.  We should have been more nimble and looked for return wherever.  But each to their own and no-one knows best.

Edited March 29 by Harley

[Harley]

IMO stamp duty is relatively excessive like most things in the UK.  Buy the US listings in a SIPP (to avoid WHT) and avoid the stamp?  Or etfs!

Edited March 29 by Harley

[King Penda]

Just now, Harley said:

The rather silly and rude debate over divs continues.  Each to their own.  To us total return matters, however that's made up.  We are biased through experience.  We've been there.  We had built sizeable div portfolios by 2020 and lost a fair chunk in the crash, many never to recover.  We should have been more nimble and looked for return wherever.  But each to their own and no-one knows best.

No one does know best I’d agree . Unbelievably it’s the poor people ( in theory ) that can increase their lot percentage wize the most and not you lot in most instances . Say someone who only earns 25k but owns their house say they live in an area that can command the full rent a room scheme price of whatever it is say 7k tax free.  For useing a bit of common sense they could probably best percentage wize any investor on this thread  . I’m drunk it’s just banter not a dig or envy just playing devils advocate 

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, King Penda said:

No one does know best I’d agree . Unbelievably it’s the poor people ( in theory ) that can increase their lot percentage wize the most and not you lot in most instances . Say someone who only earns 25k but owns their house say they live in an area that can command the full rent a room scheme price of whatever it is say 7k tax free.  For useing a bit of common sense they could probably best percentage wize any investor on this thread  . I’m drunk it’s just banter not a dig or envy just playing devils advocate 

Or be like me and do both.My partner does the rent a room scheme on her house for the £7k tax free.Then i SIPP her taxable earnings from her wage so she gets all of her tax back (using the tax free rent a room income to live on + £12.5k tax allowance).She pays zero income tax now.With her ISA divs and rent a room she is on over £40k with zero income tax.

I have managed somehow to get my family into net takers now from before where we were paying around £50k tax between us.I see is as my duty to do everything i can within the law to starve the beast that imports illegals to rape kids.

[King Penda]

34 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Or be like me and do both.My partner does the rent a room scheme on her house for the £7k tax free.Then i SIPP her taxable earnings from her wage so she gets all of her tax back (using the tax free rent a room income to live on + £12.5k tax allowance).She pays zero income tax now.With her ISA divs and rent a room she is on over £40k with zero income tax.

I have managed somehow to get my family into net takers now from before where we were paying around £50k tax between us.I see is as my duty to do everything i can within the law to starve the beast that imports illegals to rape kids.

True I do my bit for the economy cough . I don’t actually charge intetest but 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, King Penda said:

It’s not imo even what you earn it’s a mindset whether you earn 20k or 200k .  It’s about preserving what you have and getting ready for anything the system throws at you 

Indeed.

I've always said that to a certain extent it ain't so much what you earn. It's what you do with it.

[Lightscribe]

16 hours ago, Pip321 said:

A few mentions here of the BK and that’s what I am waiting for before I become fully positioned. However with hindsight and a crystal ball it means I am not being aggressive enough. My equity allocation of my assets is still sitting heavily in cash ie 65%. However 10% is in gold miners already…but that needs to increase.

My concern you cover in your last paragraph I want the cash reserves ready…..I believe in gold but I hope I get a last bite of the cherry. I’ve been laddering lows but maybe should have just bought and forgotten about them because fishing for the bottom might be costly. I still believe opportunities for everything else will be there….but gold may fly high before it dips and we may not see the likes of $1800/$1900 etc again. 

It not greed for me but rather my fear of losing real money I worked for is much greater than my fear of missing out.

After BK I will decide allocation at that point following opportunities at the time but a much stronger allocation to gold, commods and themes in the thread. 

. @wherebee post this morning re-emphasises that BK potential. Like he said about mortgage advisers etc….I know dozens of well educated financial types and they all just know rates are falling but beyond that…not a clue. That has been my ‘macro awaking’ ie to ignore the noise and watch the big stuff.

If you tell anyone rates may rise again with inflation they literally just don’t compute….they will see rates drop this year and say you were wrong. Then when they rise in a year/two years they attribute that to some ‘unforeseen event’ and you are still wrong. It’s like asking a tortoise what it thinks about the moon.

My worry now is as rates drop my cash becomes less appealing….equities rise and I jump in to get a return. And at that point it all turns to shit. 🥸

BK isn’t a 100% given (at least for now) it’s just more likely that this melt up has to melt down at some point and that will most likely reverberate out to the wider economy. That likelihood has taken a few notches up this year.

Thats why I’ll ride the miners as always like I have throughout this thread and take profits accordingly if anything runs too hard.

But in the other areas of the portfolio I stay invested in the sectors that are set up (or gives compounding dividends) for the cycle.

I’m averaging down in the EM funds like Henderson Far East over the last year or so (Monthly regular automatic allocations via H&L so low fee) that tactic has worked out well as I’m only 9% in the red ready for the other side of the cycle.

Im happy with my positioning in energy and am looking at potash once again. Thungela has worked out according to plan for me the last couple of years. If the BK comes and hands me another stab at oil, I shall back up the truck. Uranium is sorted through my miners which I’ll keep from here.

Vodafone and BATs I won’t touch now (after averaging down and now they’re on the road to sorting themselves out). Vodafone I’m currently 16% in the red and BATs 5%. Like I’ve said Im happy with my positioning.

Like DB has mentioned, I will add the asset managers eventually too, (they are looking serous value at the moment to begin averaging down). But this year is just too ridiculous in melt up mode.

Im also eyeing up the Brazil stocks and Latin American stocks I’ve done well with previously as well as BRLA.

My one regret is selling RR. It should be a pivotal stock for the UK going forward. But a 150% gain is not to be sniffed at. My co-worker who I got into all this and bought it on my say so is now up 400+%. Sometimes we can fiddle too much.

Edited March 30 by Lightscribe

[King Penda]

9 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Indeed.

I've always said that to a certain extent it ain't so much what you earn. It's what you do with it.

That’s the attitude I bought my shit hole for 49k close to 12 years ago with a 12.5k deposit over 17 years .  I destroyed the morgage in under 7 years even on minimum wage . Which was lucky because I ended up on benifits not my fault but that didn’t actually stop me planing my next leg up . Unbelievably I’ve managed to get myself into a position where I could scrape back to where I’m from I was priced out .  This sounds like  a minor achievement it’s not has I’m doing it has a single person on low wages .  It’s my own fault I did not buy 30 years ago  but it’s tremendous fun pointing out to friends they can half there houses values has they are married vs me single . Even my own sister has conceded defeat with her house she has just paid off after 30 years she paid 55k for it now worth 180/200k . She finaly realised my net worth is indeed worth more than hers after a life time of me fucking about drinking renting and womanising . 

[sancho panza]

58 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Vodafone and BATs I won’t touch now (after averaging down and now they’re on the road to sorting themselves out). Vodafone I’m currently 16% in the red and BATs 5%. Like I’ve said Im happy with my positioning.

Show off.

[King Penda]

1 hour ago, King Penda said:

True I do my bit for the economy cough . I don’t actually charge intetest but 

I must point out she is going to visit her boyfriend in stafford . When I say don’t trust women i actually mean it . At least in

single 

Edited March 30 by King Penda

[MrFanciful]

The US is seeing the introduction of BNPL for rent. Not to buy, but to rent! Might be worth seeing if the same thing is happening here, or keep an eye out for it
 

 

[Harley]

6 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

BK isn’t a 100% given (at least for now) it’s just more likely that this melt up has to melt down at some point and that will most likely reverberate out to the wider economy. That likelihood has taken a few notches up this year.

Thats why I’ll ride the miners as always like I have throughout this thread and take profits accordingly if anything runs too hard.

But in the other areas of the portfolio I stay invested in the sectors that are set up (or gives compounding dividends) for the cycle.

I’m averaging down in the EM funds like Henderson Far East over the last year or so (Monthly regular automatic allocations via H&L so low fee) that tactic has worked out well as I’m only 9% in the red ready for the other side of the cycle.

Im happy with my positioning in energy and am looking at potash once again. Thungela has worked out according to plan for me the last couple of years. If the BK comes and hands me another stab at oil, I shall back up the truck. Uranium is sorted through my miners which I’ll keep from here.

Vodafone and BATs I won’t touch now (after averaging down and now they’re on the road to sorting themselves out). Vodafone I’m currently 16% in the red and BATs 5%. Like I’ve said Im happy with my positioning.

Like DB has mentioned, I will add the asset managers eventually too, (they are looking serous value at the moment to begin averaging down). But this year is just too ridiculous in melt up mode.

Im also eyeing up the Brazil stocks and Latin American stocks I’ve done well with previously as well as BRLA.

My one regret is selling RR. It should be a pivotal stock for the UK going forward. But a 150% gain is not to be sniffed at. My co-worker who I got into all this and bought it on my say so is now up 400+%. Sometimes we can fiddle too much.

.

Edited March 30 by Harley

[Harley]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Or be like me and do both.My partner does the rent a room scheme on her house for the £7k tax free.Then i SIPP her taxable earnings from her wage so she gets all of her tax back (using the tax free rent a room income to live on + £12.5k tax allowance).She pays zero income tax now.With her ISA divs and rent a room she is on over £40k with zero income tax.

I have managed somehow to get my family into net takers now from before where we were paying around £50k tax between us.I see is as my duty to do everything i can within the law to starve the beast that imports illegals to rape kids.

.

Edited March 30 by Harley

[Ash4781b]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68666795
 

“Seven bills going up and one going down in April”

Even the one falling might require some scrutiny if as the article suggests fixed / standing charges being increased.

See also Council tax can rise at obscene rates but all the scrutiny on utility bills. It’s madness. 

 

Edited March 30 by Ash4781b

[Jay]

13 hours ago, Harley said:

Yep, we hit a forever ath this month on a solid base despite the increasing drawing down of SIPPs and various risk mitigations.  We also leave the tax year in very good order and are well positioned for the next, including being ready for some new initiatives.

I assume you mean broad etf trackers rather than them all, else we'll have to disagree.  IMO waiting for a BK is quite risky but we have very little broad exposure atm as the run up is very late and it'll hurt should when these trackers go into reverse.   

IMO we have to get used to sweating a volatile market which may go nowhere or down overall, but not necessarily a dramatic BK.  That spells trend following for us and our investment in knowledge, back testing, tech, etc is paying off as we feel we now have an edge as well as feel this is the best approach to minimise our specific risks. 

We know and believe nothing.  We just sit and wait for etfs to signal and then ride them until the turn.  And we have a low tolerance to a turn as this does not seem a market that'll bail you out over time.

All our current equity holdings are in sector etfs like general, PM major and junior, and silver, miners.  Plus commodities such as ags as well as their producers.  We'll open some core positions in regional equity but not at these prices.

Very few daily buy signals coming through atm although we just opened lowish conviction entry positions into European consumer and renewables and might do carbon, but most of the other key themes and sectors are well underway so don't particularly like the risk reward.  That said, we should take some time to consider any signals on the weekly data.  Else we earn 5% pa net, paid monthly, while waiting.

We're slowly closing out individual div equity positions and need to finally confirm that sort of investing is not for us given where we are.  We've made very good gains (not on the consensus trades) with relatively little capital down so any future action will be trade based and risk limited.

The elephant in the room though is preparing for the overt financial repression that has started and we feel will increase significantly in a very overt manner.  We are looking and acting 360 degrees.  That underpins all we do, not just financially.

Never has there been such a key time to know your objectives, strategies, plans, and capabilities.  To attain meaningful knowledge and to use it.  To know yourself and how to accept and deal with what's in front of you rather than let it control you.  This is our preferred world and it has always brought out the very best in us.

That is an excellent post with lots of great advice..some of which is too subtle to completely understand…I am guilty of waiting for a bk with an over allocation in cash..the us major indices are showing 20% plus returns over a period less than a year..even being in a tracker means good inflation beating returns..

my returns in digital assets and related tech sectors and plain tech has been phenomenal..more luck and common sense than skill..possibly as you say trend investing..

the us has real interest rates and low unemployment plus an election so it seems unlikely a bk is around the corner..rates may stay where they are but they are not really high historical..maybe the trend higher in assets continues a while longer..

I do agree financial repression is increasing..another point you raise is understanding your risk profile and tolerance carefully..otherwise you may find yourself stressed or worse, a point that poster was trying to make..

my understanding is that you are implying that individual stock picking is probably not for you..for your objectives, risk profile return etc..an informed decision…it is important to dyor which you are saying and that is golden..

Imo pm don’t rise a great deal over the year given the current run up..it’s an inflation hedge imo and others will disagree..if liquidity does increase then the rising tide will raise all boats..but some boats will rise more than others..the reverse if liquidity fails to show up..I will continue with trend investing in tech rather than wait for the asset managers to deliver..one reason being with financial repression people may not have spare money to invest so less need for financial managers..oils, baccies which I also hold imo will offer less returns going forward but still have an allocation in case I get it wrong..

as you say know your self and your objectives and act accordingly to them..

The other advice I believe is to cut your losses short and let your profits run…probably buffet but it’s worked for him and me…so far..