Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Red Debt Redemption]

5 hours ago, Funn3r said:

They make us recycle glass. Can't put them in the rubbish. You have to save up the bottles then take them to a recycling point. In my flat I have literally nowhere to save the empties so avoid buying anything glass wherever possible.  Also the recycling skips are always full to overflowing for some reason and I feel bad dumping the bottles in the carpark like everyone does.

Just put them in general nothing happens. Hear the neighbours bins clinking like fuck when tipped into lorry.  Alot of things you're 'supposed' to do like get a paye job and pay 40% tax doesn't meant you have to.

[BurntBread]

1 hour ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

This is absolutely fascinating. Much watch if you're interested in China.

He's been going to china for a long time, goes to factories etc and he says the change in the last five years is astounding regarding everything from automation to manners, air quality, public transportation and even public toilets! His conclusion is that China is far ahead of most western countries and, most importantly, he says it's the trajectory: China geeks like the future whereas the west geeks like the past.

It's only 11 minutes and just him doing a walk and talk to camera in Shanghai. That's his twitter account so well worth a follow I think.

 

 

I was in Shanghai almost exactly ten years ago, and the thing that stands out from that video is the clear air.

With regards to "becoming civilised", I would guess that part of it is that ten years is enough for the "cultural revolution generation" to be mostly dead, or largely housebound. The policies of that era created a fault line between an ancient civilisation of the past, and a people who were reduced to the bare necessities of survival.

I have a very good friend who came to this country from Shanghai as a teenager, 35 years ago, and still has family out there. He provides some useful counterbalance to the sinophobia we get here, for example on the subjects of "ghost cities" (which are typically only ghost cities temporarily, as they design and build all the infrastructure first, before people move in), and the Uigers (I'm not sure how convincing his argument here is, but he's sure they can't be persecuted because their numbers continue to climb steeply, while I think it's perfectly possible for both things to be true).

[Van Lady]

5 hours ago, Funn3r said:

They make us recycle glass. Can't put them in the rubbish. You have to save up the bottles then take them to a recycling point. In my flat I have literally nowhere to save the empties so avoid buying anything glass wherever possible.  Also the recycling skips are always full to overflowing for some reason and I feel bad dumping the bottles in the carpark like everyone does.

The rule in my area is glass is to be recycled. I walk everywhere and the glass recycling point is somewhere I rarely pass. 

My solution is to dump any glass bottles in public bins around town. I don’t have many glass bottles or jars. This method is also used for dumping other stuff to save space in my general bin due to less frequent emptying of general rubbish. Manageable amounts in my back pack….e.g. garden waste, parts of rugs, broken household items, waste from household jobs etc.

However my son drinks a bit of bottled beer and he dumps his empties in the general bin. I’ve heard the noise of breaking glass when the bin is emptied but nothing has happened about it. I doubt the bin men care…..they are all men, I’ve never seen a woman working on refuse collection.

[leonardratso]

parts of rugs could be recycled through here id wager.

Everyone goes mad for an ill fitting  nylon ginger wig, especially the ladies.

[leonardratso]

 

[Red Debt Redemption]

I like using goose fat when I remember to buy it

[Transistor Man]

1 hour ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

China deliberately used the covid lockdown to transform the country, which is why they carried it on for an additional year.

Many Chinese engineers and scientists returned home during this time. 

[Transistor Man]

6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

 

Sprott itself is one I’ve thought about. 

[Harley]

Just watched "Inside Job" again.  Works for me - fires me up to keep fighting and gives me the clarity to do so. 

Edited April 7 by Harley

[leonardratso]

ive managed to get rid of a fridge, a double bed including mattress and a single bed including mattress via the normal bin, obviouslyhad to cut them up and disguise them over several bin cycles every 2 weeks. But its fine, cutting them up is good exercise for me, especially the springs in the mattresses, doesnt half give you hand ache.

PS. have used some of the neighbours underutilized bins as well to help out (bin out to help out as rishi would say).

Edited April 7 by leonardratso

[Plan-b]

3 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

ive managed to get rid of a fridge, a double bed including mattress and a single bed including mattress via the normal bin

FFS that has be a world and Olympic record. 

[Mandalorian]

21 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

You should start your own thread, I would read it.

Would be quote boring tbh.

 

Bulk of the portfolio ~ 80%:  Serious money

Buy developed world index trackers and global investment trusts that do a similar job.

Keep exposure to non-Western economies to a minimum.  (E.g.  One or two of my favourite trusts have a small exposure to China - I'd prefer them to have none at all but hey ho - mentally I have written those shares down to zero so if Xi does piss about with them then I'm not shocked.)

 

Small chunk ~ 20%: Play money/special situations

I have some YellowCake.  'They' will eventually wake up to the fact that nuclear is the only energy source that does what they want.

Miners - they can't print it.  Yes some of the mine srae in shoithole countries but that's how it has to be.

Oil and gas - again, they can't print it.

Armaments -BAE Systems in my case.  War is profitable.

 

Might start a  thread actually.  What's in your portfolio

[Pip321]

29 minutes ago, Harley said:

Just watched "Inside Job" again.  Works for me - fires me up to keep fighting and gives me the clarity to do so.  We need a list of mandatory periodic viewing and each poster should submit regular CPE (Continuing Professional Education) returns!  

Inside Job is one of the better ones.

If I recall correctly it draws you in at the beginning with Iceland utopia and then turns it into shit. leverage and other peoples money. 

Along the lines that you give your money to a corner shop bank (remember your money) and a billionaire buys a yacht for £50m….but he doesn’t. He uses his company which uses the bank who uses your money to lend to this guy to buy a yacht.  

I remember watch another film Greed (not nearly a documentary) where it became clear how finance can work. I want to buy M&S for £5bn, so I finance it using the money which is lent by a bank to M&S itself (because I am going to own it) so effectively I pay nothing my new business does…M&S owe the money the bank gets paid.

M&S is just my hypothetical brand example. 

What a set up…the asset you buy effectively borrows the money and of course the old directors are happy because the get £100m or so for the deal  

Effectively the 65,000 or so staff then work for me, I cream a little off the top each month and bingo everyone wins. Except M&S ‘the business’ which is now asset neutral and if it goes wrong for a few months will collapse.

Finance and banks are a wonderful thing….that’s why they hate gold 😉

[Calcutta]

1 minute ago, Pip321 said:

Inside Job is one of the better ones.

If I recall correctly it draws you in at the beginning with Iceland utopia and then turns it into shit. leverage and other peoples money. 

Along the lines that you give your money to a corner shop bank (remember your money) and a billionaire buys a yacht for £50m….but he doesn’t. He uses his company which uses the bank who uses your money to lend to this guy to buy a yacht.  

I remember watch another film Greed (not nearly a documentary) where it became clear how finance can work. I want to buy M&S for £5bn, so I finance it using the money which is lent by a bank to M&S itself (because I am going to own it) so effectively I pay nothing my new business does…M&S owe the money the bank gets paid.

M&S is just my hypothetical brand example. 

What a set up…the asset you buy effectively borrows the money and of course the old directors are happy because the get £100m or so for the deal  

Effectively the 65,000 or so staff then work for me, I cream a little off the top each month and bingo everyone wins. Except M&S ‘the business’ which is now asset neutral and if it goes wrong for a few months will collapse.

Finance and banks are a wonderful thing….that’s why they hate gold 😉

 

[leonardratso]

38 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

FFS that has be a world and Olympic record. 

yes the worst bit was actually the compressor, everything else i managed to buckle and mangle into small enough chunks to bag it with normal rubbish and just offload it as heavy garbage. Actually the compressor went in a neighbours nearly empty bin surrounded by cans and other debris from normal garbage, was still kinda heavy though, still they took it like champs. I do think theres a barcode on the side of every bin that gets scanned by the bin wagon and they can probably trace it back to a street or so, but so far so good. Public bins are a bit smaller these days so they arent much good for that kind of bulk, but ill have a go if push comes to shove.

Edited April 7 by leonardratso

[Mandalorian]

21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

You need some SEDY.The top 10 holdings include petrol in Brazil,3 big banks in China,a Uranium enrichment company in the Czech republic,and Sociedad Quimica Y Minera De Chile,the biggest Lithium producer in the world.Fighting to get in the top 10 at no 11 is Adaro Energy,the 2nd biggest coal miner in Indonesia,then at 15 we have China Shenhua Energy the biggest state owned coal miner in China.We even manage GrupobanColombia in the top 20,bankers to the Cartels.

Yankuang Energy is there and not only a big Chinese coal miner,it owns the railways they ship the coal on.

Its like an inflation cycle wet dream,,buy some and feel dirty ,you can do it 

 

Definitely not

[Mandalorian]

19 hours ago, Joxer said:

Australia only has 3 destroyers to defend 20,000 miles of coastline.

It will be obvious in hindsight that Australia didn't stand a chance of repelling a Chinese invasion and all Australian shares were a dodgy investment choice.

May well be, but at 1% of my portfolio, I don't give a rat's.

[Mandalorian]

13 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Nah, this is the new virtue signalling type sanctions….it’s for the benefit of a few and it’s corrupt.

This confiscation has taken a new level…maybe a study of history would have told us it was possible but a study of history would have told us a lot of things that 5/7 years ago almost seemed impossible or certainly not an imminent threat.

Germany/Russia collaborating and growing….China/US producing and consuming respectively and interest rates nailed down to the floor. 

The macro guys may have had this nailed on but I didn’t. 

Then covid, Canadian Truckers having bank accounts seized, people prosecuted for words….1984 suddenly became a distinct reality rather than just a daft conspiracy.

I had (indeed I have) Polymetal, a company held on Jersey stock exchange, trading partly in Russia and other countries…..and now untradeable in the UK despite being listed on other stock exchanges . This company is even selling its Russian assets to try regain its value and it will be interesting to see the impact.

I think we are in a new world order where Tik Toc is an issue because it isn’t owned by a US company….in North Yorkshire we have an American Army Base with massive Golf ball listening devices which seem to be increasingly ominous as the US sponsors even more wars. They want it all now….East and West. 

So if we are giving warnings moving forward I would be wary who we trust  

Not long ago withdrawals from SIPPs were heavily restricted….maybe that gets reintroduced. Also an insistence 50% must be held in Green UK ventures to qualify for ongoing tax relief….with a return of 1% growth and inflation at 5%.

I am not predicting rather defending those who did invest….5 years ago Russia was cheap, made real things and looked solid. The risk (to me) was Putin might steal our stuff….I never imagined these soft WEF liberal leaders with smart hair cuts in the West were the enemy of my assets. They were all about Globalisation, maximise your opportunity, democracy and freedom (so I thought) 

So now I am wary…but only because the goalposts never changed but the game has changed. The BRICs know it…and now I know it.

If you knew it 5 years ago then that’s great but now I know no property is safe and even physical gold is only a hedge which may need to be hidden from confiscation for 30 years before we are allowed to use it again.

My worry is ongoing US escalation until possibly billions die. I believe they will stop at nothing to line their pockets even by just another few %.

I don’t disagree where we are….I disagree that we judge anyone to harshly who didn’t see this coming.

As it says on  motorway bridge near Manchester "The state ain't your mate".

Some of us worked that out years ago.  Some only worked it out since being locked in their houses.

What you have to do is look and think what is likely - taking into account what the suits might do.

Ultimately, if they want your stuff then they are going to take it and there is bog all you can do about it.  Just got to work on what you think the likelihood of then stealing your Polymetal compared to, say, your Aviva.

FWIW, I sold a lot of my ex state owned stuff when Corbyn had a sniff of power.  Your water companies, BT, electricity companies etc would likely have been stolen without compensation.  And that was pre-coof.

[Mandalorian]

12 hours ago, baffledbyzirp said:

The whole sorry saga for me is a reminder that the nefarious PTB don't care about the rule of law, international property rights or their own citizens. They would happily pile us up on a funeral pyre to make a political point, declaiming our enemies through crocodile tears.

 

Bingo.

[Axeman123]

3 hours ago, BurntBread said:

but he's sure they can't be persecuted because their numbers continue to climb steeply, while I think it's perfectly possible for both things to be true).

Indeed, logically they are being persecuted but not enough hence the rising numbers.

[Mandalorian]

8 hours ago, Jesus Wept said:

Was looking a history of S&P500 as it seems to  just go up and up and up…..

If you had put £100,000 in on the 14th July 2000

 

It would have taken nearly 13 years to return to the same point…

10 years later you would have added 350% 

 

Money printing / destruction of currencies in action….

I would also say that when they say s&P has given back a gain of 13% on average every year - you need to ‘cherry pick the data and look at very long time scales - say 25 - 35 years.

Between 2000 and 2013 it gave back fuck all.

 

Your last point.  Only if you bought a lump of it in 2000 and didn't buy like clockwork every month through thick and thin - which is how I do it.

The easiest way to make money:  Find a bull market and join in.  Just get out when you've made enough.  Don't be greedy.

Who cares about fundamentals?  They are irrelevant - 'market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent' etc.  Find a bull and jump on.

[Mandalorian]

7 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

It is fascinating how basically sound some normie share investing advice is, eg:

Start early, average in, stay the course, time in the market, keep adding even when you are down.

Someone in their 30s putting a lump sum in at the height of the 2000 bubble and then drip feeding in every month would still have come good ready for retirement. If they had sucessfully waited in cash/bonds and timed the bottom that followed they would have done incredibly well of course. If they had drip fed their lump sum in over several years instead (as well as regular contributions) they would have been up overall much sooner.

I think people wanting exceptional results and willing to both work for it and take risk/volatility on the chin (like us on here) can do so much better, but if I had to give vanilla advice to a normie I would probably stick with the above and feel they would be well served by it.

Even the 60/40 portfolio has recovered its bond bloodbath losses, and has returned 8% annualised over the last 10 years. Not somewhere I would want to be close to retirement etc, but for the normies maybe not so terrible.

See.  Timing the market and stock picking is a mug's game.

Buy your chosen tracker every month like clockwork through thick and thin.

[Mandalorian]

6 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

Apart from those on ‘generic’ lifestyle schemes get transferred over to treasuries automatically at designated age milestones. there’s some poor blissfully unaware 55 year olds out there that are 80-90% in treasuries who were automatically transferred in stages whilst rates were 0.5%.

Wouldn't have a bond given to me.

[Axeman123]

2 minutes ago, Mandalorian said:

Timing the market and stock picking is a mug's game.

Woah...not exactly what I said.

Horses for courses

[Mandalorian]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

Woah...not exactly what I said.

Horses for courses

It's what I say though