Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

GBNews saying EU in recession partly to do with energy costs, electricity 3 times the cost of US electricity, funnily enough

How can that be allowed? Don't the US have an energy regulator, to make consumers pay more?

[Red Debt Redemption]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Little example on how we are going Cuba.My car back light unit bust,finding one was very very tough,luckily in the end i did and fixed it yesterday.My partners car failed its MOT on a few bits.One was the middle section of the exhaust.Cant get an exhaust for it anywhere.A Peugout.Not even main dealers.Luckily my mate has welded it for me,but what if it couldnt be welded?.Supply chain breakdown,but maybe government regs slowly killing off business to get us out of old cars?.

Looking at the prices of spare new car parts its incredible.The light unit cost me £36 on Ebay and easily fitted myself but hard to find.It would of been £300 at a garage,for such a simple thing.

This all feeds into the workless numbers growing.People on sub £30k simply cannot afford to get to work by keeping a car on the road,and the irony is one of the reasons is they are funding free mobility cars for lots of other people.Of course we know the tyrant elite want to force everyone into 15 minute cities.On th way back from the test i noticed several Africans wandering along  with their backpacks,obvious new arrivals going to their council funded free houses.

They hate us.

Would you cash in brfs for BT on the back of the net neutrality news? Up 70 odd percent.

I'm in on Sibayne. Thanks Bodders. 

[Red Debt Redemption]

3 hours ago, belfastchild said:

@sancho panza

I was going to say we talked about his opening a couple of weeks ago, turns out it was back in October!

To recap, Ofcom kicked the can back to the government as after several delays and can kicking they went as far as they could right now legally. Its up to government to change the law to go full 'fare share'.

Will take a while for this all to start filtering through with contracts etc but going forward it should be included in al future contracts (or maybe not if negotiated properly).
They cant exactly 'throttle' people but they will allow priority for other customers ;-) The example mentioned in the last day or so is good, why shouldnt mobile customers who pay a premium to watch a smaller bandwidth version than people on 50 inch 4k tvs have a better 'quality of service'. QOS and variants have always been available, just not allowed to implement them because of discrimination etc. They were never intended for home/personal use though as the amount of traffic was i never really thought about.
I never watch terestrial tv, its shite, plus its even more shite on freeview near me as Im off a legacy mast with a reduced number of stations (BBC and about 4 others or so). Nowhere near the stations available the other side of the mountain in Belfast so why pay a tv tax for that. Well turned the tuner on a couple of weeks ago and now the in built freeview has the rest of the stations coming across the net connection.
Who pays for that? Its not as if the telcos had a say in the matter. Its about time they did.
 

Wonder what effect it will have on vpns as it bypasses isp throttling for type of traffic such as streaming AFAIK. Buy the office files only at full speed internet package and stream with it. I know they could apply to the IP ranges vpns use but recently vpns have responded with dedicated personal IP packages to get round Amazon, Netflix blocks etc.

[Red Debt Redemption]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

What do you see the likely first steps? Some big data companies paying more for their contracts?.Seems like a holed dam now to me,there is no way these massive users can get away much longer getting a free ride and the hole is going to get bigger and bigger and burst.What i like is everyone thinks the telcos have no pricing power,but they do.Like you say priority to others over say the Man Utd v Liverpool game so thats freezing etc would soon get the Premier League or Sky etc to pony up.Its a bit like having to build a 5 lane motorway when 95% of the time you only need 3 lanes,but the extra 2 are for when a few big hitters decide to travel.Telcos can say if you want to use those lanes we built then its going to cost you,or you can get behind the cars chugging along in the other lanes.

Hello Sony,COD release eh,your users are in the slow lanes with everyone else,or cough up,after all you have the choice,its a business choice,do you want the speed or not?.

From my above post maybe this where its forced on company's rather than individuals and then captures individuals aswell. Touche.

Edited February 15 by Red Debt Redemption

[Axeman123]

15 minutes ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Wonder what effect it will have on vpns as it bypasses isp throttling for type of traffic such as streaming AFAIK. Buy the office files only at full speed internet package and stream with it. I know they could apply to the IP ranges vpns use but recently vpns have responded with dedicated personal IP packages to get round Amazon, Netflix blocks etc.

The VPNs are at your end, whereas this new model will focus on the other end ie the streaming platforms. Maybe ISPs will have "no VPNs" as a contractual term for users, or provide their own limited version for free that doesn't interfere with their aims.

This change is huge for the business side of things, but it will likely change the end user experience to. Maybe we will see ISPs restrict users to an approved list of apps and web browsers at some point, creating a walled garden model.

[Jay]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Now notice this.They are right on its one of the reasons,but they make one huge huge mistake.Can you spot it?.Chief economist,the same mistake as the BOE are making.Those people ARE consuming,thats the problem,they are consuming more and more and producing nothing in a cost push distribution cycle.Its lack of production,not lack of consumption.Classical economics says increasing welfare etc increases demand,economy responds with production.Not this cycle it doesnt.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/15/ftse-100-markets-news-latest-uk-in-recession-live/?li_source=LI&li_medium=for_you

Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, said: “If more people were in work, consuming, producing, etcetera, we would have higher GDP numbers. 

I think Grant is right..however he does not state how to achieve it..as you say increase the incentives to work so disincentivize not working..short term pain and long term gain..fiscal deficits need to be reduced otherwise well we are seeing it..road to serfdom..I;am a consumer and if I have less money I consume less..I don’t expect handouts..the nanny state signals state payments and now there is an expectation of state handouts..the implications on society of current immigration policy, ageing demographics and fiscal deficits is changing society and culture..fourth turning and maybe the young people want that..United colours of Benetton state control..good luck to them if that is what they want..please just accept responsibility..and leave me be..but they won’t..

[Clueless Imbecile]

@DurhamBorn, if big tech is vulnerable to telco price rises, what is to stop big tech from simply buying up the telcos? Even some of the big US telcos are only a fraction of the market cap of big tech (e.g. AT&T Inc $120.84bn, Verizon Communications Inc $168.72bn, T-Mobile US Inc $191.66bn, Alphabet Inc $1810.00bn).

One answer to that question might be "The regulator or government might block it to prevent a monopoly." However, I don't have much faith in that. In my opinion big tech has already had monopoly power.

I sometimes wondered why the US government didn't break up big tech. I wonder if the reason is that maybe US government wanted big tech to dominate so that the US could have great influence on the global media.

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

 

 

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, ashestoashes said:

GBNews saying EU in recession partly to do with energy costs, electricity 3 times the cost of US electricity, funnily enough

There was an article in the Aussie press this week which, rarely, pointed out that the per unit cost of electricity in China was on average 1/4th of the cost in Australia.

 

Didn't make the connection to green policies and taxes tho.

[Eventually Right]

43 minutes ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

@DurhamBorn, if big tech is vulnerable to telco price rises, what is to stop big tech from simply buying up the telcos? Even some of the big US telcos are only a fraction of the market cap of big tech (e.g. AT&T Inc $120.84bn, Verizon Communications Inc $168.72bn, T-Mobile US Inc $191.66bn, Alphabet Inc $1810.00bn).

 

 

 

That’d probably work out pretty well for you, if you were holding the shares…

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

Would you cash in brfs for BT on the back of the net neutrality news? Up 70 odd percent.

I'm in on Sibayne. Thanks Bodders. 

Not advice,but if it was myself i would yes.Its done very very well for us,but not a core hold for me.

[DurhamBorn]

57 minutes ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

@DurhamBorn, if big tech is vulnerable to telco price rises, what is to stop big tech from simply buying up the telcos? Even some of the big US telcos are only a fraction of the market cap of big tech (e.g. AT&T Inc $120.84bn, Verizon Communications Inc $168.72bn, T-Mobile US Inc $191.66bn, Alphabet Inc $1810.00bn).

One answer to that question might be "The regulator or government might block it to prevent a monopoly." However, I don't have much faith in that. In my opinion big tech has already had monopoly power.

I sometimes wondered why the US government didn't break up big tech. I wonder if the reason is that maybe US government wanted big tech to dominate so that the US could have great influence on the global media.

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

 

 

Nothing.Though i suspect regulators would stop it.The polos etc have once again created a disaster with over regulation making their telcos way under valued.The best thing they can do now is let them go to fair value by getting their feet off their necks.

[DurhamBorn]

Should add on net neutrality,or in Europe "Fair share" Telefonica has been taking the lead and the EU seems to of started to understand.

https://www.telefonica.com/en/communication-room/blog/net-neutrality-big-techs-go-to-excuse-to-kill-fair-share-is-a-red-herring/

And the European Parliament’s recent approval of the report on competition policy including in paragraph 44 which “calls for the establishment of a policy framework where large traffic generators contribute fairly to the adequate funding of telecom networks without prejudice to net neutrality” provides an even stronger reassurance that any Fair Share proposal adopted will be fully aligned with European Open Internet Regulation (OIR) safeguarding Net Neutrality principles.

[tank]

22 hours ago, sancho panza said:

ALlistair Heath goes full basement dweller,MSM been nipping down ehre in theur tea breaks?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/14/for-the-first-time-im-beginning-to-think-britain-is-finishe/

For the first time in my life, I’m now beginning to think Britain is finished

The country’s self-image as tolerant, decent and hard-working is being smashed. It’s only going to get worse

Britain’s decline over the past 25 years has been staggeringly rapid. Almost everything is getting worse, and almost nothing is getting better. Our public and private institutions are broken, presided over by an incompetent, selfish and narcissistic ruling class. Living standards, when adjusted properly for living and property costs, are declining. 

Even the simplest things don’t work any longer. Queuing, scarcity and congestion are rife, our infrastructure is embarrassingly poor, and the honest and hardworking face endless bureaucratic battles to obtain what they are due. Free riding, crime, disorder, fraud, littering and generalised rule-bending are rife, and all too often tolerated by apathetic citizens and an indifferent state. Britain’s residual virtues, our individualism, independence of mind, tolerance and openness, uniquely appealing features of our national character, are fading. 

Like a frog in boiling water, few saw the full scale of the decline coming until it was too late, and those who did were ridiculed by the bien-pensant. Yet even in 2024, when millions now realise that Britain is on the wrong track, there is no hope of meaningful improvement. The Tories have been abysmal, but Labour will be even worse: Keir Starmer will double down on the social-democratic and culturally nihilistic policies tested to destruction by the Conservatives.

 

 

In the 2000s, Britain had a particular idea of itself: a country of post-Thatcherite property-owners which reconciled modernity and tradition, globalisation and national self-determination, low-tax dynamism and fairness, where you didn’t need IDs to vote, where MPs weren’t attacked by screaming mobs, and where, finally, racism was increasingly a thing of the past. We saw ourselves as a socially mobile, law-abiding land of high trust, low corruption, the rule of law, improving race relations and religious toleration: a uniquely open society and a model to the Western world. 

Such a vision is now largely obsolete. An Englishman’s home was his castle, making a huge difference to our national psyche, until our deliberate policy of rationing new housing at a time of mass immigration robbed the under-40s of the chance of owning anything of their own. “This is a free country”, we used to maintain when presented with another idiotic proposal to control us, but that too is over, killed off by the woke war on free speech, the jailing of Christian preachers, the sugar tax, the surveillance society and the Covid lockdowns. 

 

 

In narrow GDP growth terms, we continue to outperform the true laggards on the continent, as Brexiteers correctly predicted, but that should be no consolation. Our manufacturing sector is being priced out of global markets by the rush to net zero, our energy policy is a hideous farce, our misregulated City is in decline, and our tax system an absurd conspiracy against hard work and merit, with marginal tax rates back at 1970s levels for some. 

The socialist NHS, despite massive increases in funding, is a horror show, and one of the main reasons not to live in the UK. Some 5.6 million adults are on out-of-work benefits, and yet immigration is running at extraordinary levels. Our Armed Forces have been slashed, and are now being subject to a woke takeover. 

 

I suspect Tory Boy Allister looked at his rag's latest opinion poll and can foresee what many on here can't and that is Labour steering the rickety UK ship back into the nearest European port for urgent repairs. 

Not a popular view on here, but I think the UK's demise as he puts it can be traced back a lot further than May 1997. 

Further back than the Blessed Margaret even. Probably the Blitz but definitely Suez. That marked the official end of empire but it takes generations of decline for it to become eventually apparent to those higher up the social ladder. There is no doubt the UK is in terminal decline, so its a case of whether that decline is managed or disorderly. I suspect Starmer, with Blair lurking in the shadows, will opt for the former.

Edited February 15 by tank

[Loki]

The interesting thing about a centrally credit-backed inflationary system is that money goes from being a measure of human time/effort (Gold for example) to a means of controlling human time/effort

 

(Just a random thought I had)

[belfastchild]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

What do you see the likely first steps? Some big data companies paying more for their contracts?.Seems like a holed dam now to me,there is no way these massive users can get away much longer getting a free ride and the hole is going to get bigger and bigger and burst.What i like is everyone thinks the telcos have no pricing power,but they do.Like you say priority to others over say the Man Utd v Liverpool game so thats freezing etc would soon get the Premier League or Sky etc to pony up.Its a bit like having to build a 5 lane motorway when 95% of the time you only need 3 lanes,but the extra 2 are for when a few big hitters decide to travel.Telcos can say if you want to use those lanes we built then its going to cost you,or you can get behind the cars chugging along in the other lanes.

Hello Sony,COD release eh,your users are in the slow lanes with everyone else,or cough up,after all you have the choice,its a business choice,do you want the speed or not?.

Its very much a suck it and see and each company will be different and will try different things (and play one telco off against each other )but essentially it will settle down after a while and they will have convergence.

This is the first year I havent had nowtv football. For the last umpteen years Ive had that and their 'boost' system and despite last year getting 500mb down I was buffering on the likes of Liverpool vs Man U. I mentioned this in the feedback when I was cancelling. Funny though when my neighbours on a bein sports stream hear me cheering 9 seconds before they see what Im cheering about.

Im paying for decent broadband, Im paying for a football service and im also paying for boost access to the service, yet on popular games Im stuttering because every fucker who isnt paying and using a kodi box, using sky on the net instead of through a dish, virgin package holders who get it free and at the same time as COD issue an update, Im not getting the service Im paying a premium for.
Try accessing the net on Christmas morning when every fucker under the sun is trying to download a 30gb update for their new playstation etc.

Its not just about the pipes from the individual companies to the network its the traffic in the networks. Mobile providers used to offer free usage social media or netflix or the equivalent because they co-located the servers in their local mast/cell infrastructure so it was only the handshaking and internal transfers that went beyond the local networks. They stopped that when all inclusive pricing came in so to make it easier for themselves and that started the spiral which led us to today. If it cost people real actual money to access facebook etc they wouldnt access it.
Twitter wants to be the be all and end all, text, video etc. So from using spare short message capacity it wants to deliver (as far as I can see it) fucking endless cat videos. Fine if in 360p but a bit shit when someones using 4k bandwidth to run that shite in the background.

Netflix were cunts with their software, when I had it the bastards would reserve a lot of your home wifi bandwidth for netflix if it needed it or not just in case, which meant normally I wouldnt notice but if family were visiting I could do fuck all on my main computer if they started watching netflix on the tv in the living room. I had to split the wifi signals at home and limit the bandwith on the one used for netflix. Will be great if the arseholes get that turned on them. Want to watch netflix on your phone, fine, anything else, pay extra to ensure you dont get buffered.
The problem that telcos have is that they have sold many many services on the 'up to' or 'minimum' levels of bandwidth for their services. They also have sold all you can eat unlimited or unthrottled services with the 5-7pm caveats hidden way down in the detail. You cant then go on to say ah but your streaming will be limited to 360p of that bandwidth etc. Well ok, they can under the new rules but they cant limit it to a suppler so if they limit streaming at certain times to certain bandwidths it has to be across the board, not just netflix or youtube or nowtv etc.
That will pass it over to the companies who will say ok, 4.99 per month for 360p but for 720 or 1080 you need our extra package but as above this isnt in conjuction with the telcos and under the new rules telcos cant discriminate those type of customers so either streamer a pays for all its customers to be allowed extra or it doesnt. Then if if does pay where does that leave the others as far as discimination etc goes. It will be a mess for a while but it will get sorted, particularly if one streamer does better because of it. Spain has already done a fair bit for this and is going that way.

The telcos can always argue that for most people who only watch stuff on their phones or tablets it wont be a real issue as that will continue on regardless. It will become an issue if you have 5 people in the one house all trying to do it at the same time over the same connection.

TLDR answer, I dont know ;-) There are many models it can go down and anyone who remembers how mobiles/broadband was billed before virgin and all you can eat mobile data contracts came along will know what I mean. That was of course a billing nightmare (I used to work on it) and it saved telcos more money than it made by going that route.
The telcos know which 5 or 6 companies use 80% of their networks and under new rules they cant discriminate the customers, just the type of traffic.
Thats the thing  though, a lot of the heavy traffic can mapped to new series/movie releases, new games releases, popular viewing times or sports schedules. To keep people safe it might be necessary to restrict bandwidth during those peak times and only either the end users who really must access those things during those times will have to pay for it or the providers will or a combination of the two. Nobody really gives a fuck when brentford play crystal palace but liverpool man u is different.

I might have mentioned before that BTs old nightmare scenario was when the Queen mother died. Why? Well people would instantly pick up the phone and call to tell someone and crash the network.
Some wag from NI stood up and said, dont worry, route a lot of the calls  through NI as half the population there wont give a fuck....
I can see that sort of tongue in cheek network routing being popular in certain circles. As it is I get texts from wankers with scorelines before I see it 'live' on my own tv.

[nirvana]

6 hours ago, janch said:

Buffet has sold Apple so are we at the top yet in the US, ready for the BK?

it's an election year, the cathedral will hold it up at all costs??

PS the cathedral, the cabal, the lizard men......I've taken to using the word cathedral cos I've decided I'm a retard

[nirvana]

3 hours ago, Red Debt Redemption said:

I'm in on Sibayne. Thanks Bodders. 

it's Sibanye......come on retard get it right And I thought they were in the shits at the moment?

u trying to be a BTFD retard too???

[nirvana]

3 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

The VPNs are at your end, whereas this new model will focus on the other end ie the streaming platforms. Maybe ISPs will have "no VPNs" as a contractual term for users, or provide their own limited version for free that doesn't interfere with their aims.

what's the excitement with VPNs? I've seen the latest 'dodgy app' on a firestick, it's fukkin unreal......£30/year and you get everything and it runs fine without a VPN

[nirvana]

3 hours ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

I sometimes wondered why the US government didn't break up big tech. I wonder if the reason is that maybe US government wanted big tech to dominate so that the US could have great influence on the global media.

big tech is the see eye aaa ........global media is just MK Ultra on fekkin steroids, sorry shite diets lol........the frogs have just introduced a law where you can go to prison if you speak out against vaccines........I'm still in shock at that one.......the whole shitcake is going downhill at a rate o knots....

[Bobthebuilder]

28 minutes ago, nirvana said:

big tech is the see eye aaa ........global media is just MK Ultra on fekkin steroids, sorry shite diets lol........the frogs have just introduced a law where you can go to prison if you speak out against vaccines........I'm still in shock at that one.......the whole shitcake is going downhill at a rate o knots....

Some people think they're always right
Others are quiet and uptight
Others, they seem so very nice-nice-nice-nice, oh
Inside they might feel sad and wrong, oh, no
Twenty-nine different attributes
Only seven that you like, oh-oh
Twenty ways to see the world, oh
And twenty ways to start a fight, oh
Oh don't, don't, don't get up
I can't see the sunshine
I'll be waiting for you, baby
'Cause I'm through
Sit me down
Shut me up
I'll calm down
And I'll get along with you
Oh, men don't notice what they got
Oh, women think of that a lot
One thousand ways to please your man, oh
Not even one requires a plan, I know
And countless odd religions too
It doesn't matter which you choose, oh, no
One stubborn way to turn your back, oh
This I've tried and now refuse, oh

[JMD]

8 hours ago, darkmarket said:

Vicious little communists, but I'm not at all surprised to find Hitchens in their company.

Interesting comment. Are you referring there to the belief by some that Hitchens remains to this day a secret Trot?   (I personally don't believe that theory, but was just wondering if that's what you meant?)

Edited February 16 by JMD

[AWW]

14 hours ago, nirvana said:

aye....'front running' it's called.......will be rife.......I think it was those Robinhood fekkers who finally admitted to front running most of their punters.....good game, good game lol

You don't even need a couple of days to front-run your client's trades. In the FX market it was rife until a few years ago and that was within a last look window of a few hundred milliseconds. It's not supposed to happen anymore, but I know of a couple of places where the compliance bods are useless and have been misled or outright lied to by the trading desks so that they can carry on doing stuff that's supposed to be verboten.

[Castlevania]

7 hours ago, nirvana said:

it's Sibanye......come on retard get it right And I thought they were in the shits at the moment?

u trying to be a BTFD retard too???

You did the technical analysis on Sibanye for me for which I’m grateful and then I ignored all that and bought some more.

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, Castlevania said:

You did the technical analysis on Sibanye for me for which I’m grateful and then I ignored all that and bought some more.

balls deep bruv balls deep, luv it

that's not one of mine.....trader Dante

[DurhamBorn]

38 minutes ago, nirvana said:

balls deep bruv balls deep, luv it

that's not one of mine.....trader Dante

My technical stuff on it was oh its back to where iv made a shit load a few times before,il buy a shit load again.They will probably go a lot lower if the results are really poor as they might be,they are very much PGM based now more than gold.The new mines look very interesting and as usual with them they are building and should open them just as the prices are rocketing,they are very good at investing during the bad times and catching the upside.Its one of the reasons they get smashed every cycle because they invest and borrow during the down part and the market gets worried,but the managment know what they are doing.The $500 convertible bond for instance they issued last Sept smacked them down,but it was the right thing to do,keeps the balance sheet intact to fund those new mines even if they fall into loss or breakeven for a few years.