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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)


spunko

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6 hours ago, Pip321 said:

Spoke to my IFA yesterday (I know, I know) but his anecdotal was interesting. 

Firstly my question about funds was right…..there is often a delay with prices coming through and in many ways that’s why they delay purchases for 24/48 hours. Ie if both the execution and the price offered are delayed they compensate each other slightly. So effectively whilst it’s like buying in slow motion it does mitigate (slightly) the delay. Ie market dips, I buy and by the time it’s executed the dip also hits the fund (hopefully 🤦🏻‍♂️

Anyhoo…

The anecdotal is many clients are beginning to ask about moving from cash and even some are now starting to move from cash…..expectations that inflation is softening and interest rates will fall over the next 12 months so starting to look for better returns. Very generic investments though. Melt up? 

What I found particularly interesting is the narrative, the timeline, the mindset if you like. I worry about fiat, getting into gold, end of empire stuff when picking investments…..but many just invest ‘now’ and review periodically. Bonds caught many out but maybe not the ones who kept reviewing things and reacting in a timely manner.  Even the PruFund Growth moved more away from Bonds before the crunch. 

So they might be very wrong, have no idea about the big picture but I guess if they keep on top of what’s going on and react they may do fine. ie just following the market and bailing when it starts to wobble. What they won’t have is EM or PM exposure….none. 

Whether they react when the big alarms start going off….is another matter. That what this thread does, it’s adds the knowledge of what is happening from a wider perspective and many normies don’t believe a collapse could happen.

But it’s interesting many can do ok even in wobbly times but from a differing perspective. The BK will be the determination though, that’s when they get crushed. 

I think your provider's explanation of the delay in selling your fund due to supposed (intermittent?) market price verification is a half-truth on their part. I bet it's more to do with the legacy IT systems most financial organisations (especially some of the banks) still operate.

A pension provider I was using up to several years ago told me execution time was because all buy/sell instructions were batched together for overnight processing and also had to be in before 2pm that day. A similar lag for the buy/sell transaction confirmation coming back from the exchange, meant that total time 'estimated' (not guaranteed) of 24/48 hours. 

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sancho panza
5 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

He doesn't seem to realise that what he calls intolerance and racism were a key part of what made the country great. 

I think for me the alitair haeth article is improtant for  couple of reasons.

firstly it brings together a lot of the economic/politcal themes   @DurhamBorn has been developing over the last 5/7 years about systemic risk  and it does so in a manistream publication written by a mainstream author.

secodnly it also intorduces alognside the economci chaos of net zero/housing market fubar/manufacturing fubar....the notion that the UK ia witnessing institutional decay,soemthing youve worked to hgihglight and push as a theme going forward.

the cat is getting out of the bag for the genereal public

the bit about racsim/anti semistism is more him shwoing middle class shock at what many basement dwellers have seen for soem time ie that if you imprt the thrid world,you become thrid world if you do it on a grand enough scale.

5 hours ago, Majorpain said:

https://capx.co/ofcom-has-quiety-taken-advantage-of-brexit/

 

@DurhamBorn

They kept it quiet, but Ofcom has dipped its toe in the water of meddling with net neutrality.  

I'll be forwarding this on MP,many thnaks for highlighting.....worth seeing if hive mind telco lead has a view @belfastchild is this the thin ned of the wedge

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats not about timing buying them though,its about them doubling very quickly and repositioning into other things mostly in the same sector.Iv been selling some Verizon for instance (30% profits in a few months) and buying back BT.The point is it is up to any individual to choose what and when to buy or sell anything.The trends are starting to play out.My two bull cases for telcos were inflation forcing prices up and the ending of net neutrality,both are now in play,both are happening.I think looking back over many years we are superb at spotting whats coming,but maybe we are so good we invest too early before anyone else understands and should wait a bit @Harley technicals maybe?,though ladders help.Telcos are on very low PEs and they might be about to be given much more pricing power.We expected it 3 years ago,it just took longer than expected to happen and it might take longer yet for the market to spot it.

it's weird,we bought telcos in 2020 and a fari few too.they have all done absolutely nothing since although we did sell and rebuy BT 105-145-110.in the same timeframe oil and goldies did well for us.

lucky for me my mum has the bulk telcos,part of the reason she underperformed me nd mrs p since in per cetnge terms.

as you say the end of net neutrality is what telcos haev ben waiting for.may start to shift into them even more than we are.only thing that puts me off is that so many of the biggies are euro owned eg TEF,Orange,Deutche.

@Democorruptcy for me,the macro gets you into the trade but your personalt circumstances can pull you out .if i get offered enough cash and there are value trades elsehwere then I'll sell.for us a fine example was selling goldies sept 20 and buying oilies.different sectors but saem macro themes.one sector had run one had got pummelled

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Lance Roberts is a regular guest on Adam's Thoughtful Money.

He talks a lot of sense and has confirmed a lot of the conclusions and practices I have come up with.  He lives in my old town, Houston (hey @Cattle Prod!).

Lance does a daily early (6am his time!) morning podcast/YouTube with his colleagues at RIA financial advisers.  Also daily and weekly free newsletters.  All relevant to us in the UK.

IMO their stuff is excellent and provides good information on what's happened, what's really happened(!), why it's happened, and how to manage "happenings".  

Here is one which eventually gets to how to approach risk off (an approach I also defined and use):

https://feeds.soundcloud.com/stream/1746184380-user-949311744-its-cpi-day-the-impact-that-gas-prices-may-have-21324.mp3

At 22:44 but the whole podcast is good.

Another, showing the value for those approaching or in retirement:

https://feeds.soundcloud.com/stream/1747141755-user-949311744-cpi-came-in-a-little-hotter-than-hoped-21424.mp3

Anyways, may be of interest to some, getting inside the mind of IMO a good financial advisor.

 

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3 hours ago, darkmarket said:

It reminded me of Hitchens too.

There is something of the demoralisation agent about him, I enjoy seeing Sargon of Akkad push back against his despair at times.

With Hitchens though, there's a more coherent narrative where the Trotskyites have led the nation to its present state of affairs. With Heath there, it's as though the liberal world order project wasn't inherently flawed, Cool Britannia wasn't hollow propaganda and somehow, inexplicably, things have suddenly turned sour.

No mention either of the fact that the world is on the precipice of global conflict with one side expected to die for tranny rights and open borders and dysgenic demographics, and that just like communism, the perverse and suicidal ideology has its roots here in the UK.

Anyway, pleased to see not even recession being acknowledged is enough to move 10y gilts below 4%. Imagine the GDP number stripped of state spending propping up the labour market with fake jobs for disabled brown women.

Of course Hitchens is himself a former Trotskyist. It is interesting that here he is being interviewed by the awful left-winge(!) Novara media outfit.

Bit of a thread detour perhaps, but tbf it's one of the best Hitchens interviews I've seen (and as I said previously Hitchens doesn't get enough cudos or attention). It's also quiet long - however Hitchens does a very good job at articulating his now total despair for this country, describing well how its been radically changed in only a few short decades, and that tragically it is simply no longer a 'serious country'. 

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Apparently we just hit 7 consecutive quarters where they couldn't hide GDP per capita was negative. Have to go back to forever 1955 to find the last time that happened.

FIFY.

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belfastchild

@sancho panza

I was going to say we talked about his opening a couple of weeks ago, turns out it was back in October!

To recap, Ofcom kicked the can back to the government as after several delays and can kicking they went as far as they could right now legally. Its up to government to change the law to go full 'fare share'.

Will take a while for this all to start filtering through with contracts etc but going forward it should be included in al future contracts (or maybe not if negotiated properly).
They cant exactly 'throttle' people but they will allow priority for other customers ;-) The example mentioned in the last day or so is good, why shouldnt mobile customers who pay a premium to watch a smaller bandwidth version than people on 50 inch 4k tvs have a better 'quality of service'. QOS and variants have always been available, just not allowed to implement them because of discrimination etc. They were never intended for home/personal use though as the amount of traffic was i never really thought about.
I never watch terestrial tv, its shite, plus its even more shite on freeview near me as Im off a legacy mast with a reduced number of stations (BBC and about 4 others or so). Nowhere near the stations available the other side of the mountain in Belfast so why pay a tv tax for that. Well turned the tuner on a couple of weeks ago and now the in built freeview has the rest of the stations coming across the net connection.
Who pays for that? Its not as if the telcos had a say in the matter. Its about time they did.
 

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5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

.I think looking back over many years we are superb at spotting whats coming,but maybe we are so good we invest too early before anyone else understands and should wait a bit @Harley technicals maybe?

I posted above about Lance Roberts.  He uses a simple (hence sensible!) technical approach which he is open about in his newsletter.  Mine is better but proprietary!

But we both agree, these approaches are to get you the last few steps of a fundamental approach.  Not that trading malarkey!

They'll never be right all the time and will rarely get you in and out at the best times.  However, what they do is help take out human silliness and provide a pair of ear protectors from all the yap.

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

but maybe government regs slowly killing off business to get us out of old cars?.

for sure.....i have a spare ECU and some funky IT kit courtesy of our helpful chinkie mates now, total cost I think £40-50

need to get prepping bossman!! :ph34r:

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56 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

Consider the exodus from the workforce of 50- to 64-year-olds since the start of the pandemic. The Department for Work and Pensions has gone to herculean, at times unhinged, efforts to entice Generation X back into the workplace – midlife MOTs, encouraging doctors to refer patients to life coaches – but is seemingly oblivious to the real deterrent: punitive taxes

Amen bro, did this way before the pandemic!  Went ALT.  But punitive and wasted taxes. 

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darkmarket
20 minutes ago, JMD said:

It is interesting that here he is being interviewed by the awful left-winge(!) Novara media outfit.

Vicious little communists, but I'm not at all surprised to find Hitchens in their company.

Bigger move in gilts today responding to US retail data than UK GDP. Of course the latter was closer to forecast, but nevertheless it shows what causes effects. We now have markets raising bets on Fed cuts again, and yet I don't see today's data making an iota of difference.

I must confess to being a bit unsure of where in a deflation/inflation cycle posters think we are in the UK and in the West more generally. I see things somewhat differently, and don't expect a return to stimulus and monetary expansion until we see serious problems in China and the EU at least, despite inflation now being embedded.

Whoever tries to break ranks first and go for stimulus will be a very interesting test case.

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DurhamBorn
2 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

Vicious little communists, but I'm not at all surprised to find Hitchens in their company.

Bigger move in gilts today responding to US retail data than UK GDP. Of course the latter was closer to forecast, but nevertheless it shows what causes effects. We now have markets raising bets on Fed cuts again, and yet I don't see today's data making an iota of difference.

I must confess to being a bit unsure of where in a deflation/inflation cycle posters think we are in the UK and in the West more generally. I see things somewhat differently, and don't expect a return to stimulus and monetary expansion until we see serious problems in China and the EU at least, despite inflation now being embedded.

Whoever tries to break ranks first and go for stimulus will be a very interesting test case.

The stimulus will be the Chinese consumer i think.That will draw liquidity to EMs.

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darkmarket
Just now, DurhamBorn said:

The stimulus will be the Chinese consumer i think.That will draw liquidity to EMs.

I don't see it. Bloomberg and Wall Street has been calling for endlessly since the zero-covid insanity, but nothing but jawboning from Xi so far - perhaps even he can see it's not worth throwing more money at malinvestment on an unprecedented scale.

There are no signs of a middle class emerging, quite the reverse. The '70s and '80s generation who were making above poverty wages are losing everything now on their urban apartment writedowns and wealth management implosions. Youth unemployment is still unspeakably high. I suspect what's really happening there is as brutal as ever.

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Axeman123
41 minutes ago, janch said:

I would be incredibly surprised if he is in all the way to the top. Volatile momo trades that could reverse at any moment are hardly his calling card to date.

When Buffet is 100% cash there will still be more to come, and I assume he would pride himself on that.

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Red Debt Redemption
9 hours ago, Pip321 said:

EXACTLY the same for my area….including a new big building which is mostly empty cos every fucker works from home.

I told the council once about an empty property that I was selling and set up the DD via phone. It never went out. 

Due to family bereavement (dreadful 2023) I didn’t have the inclination or the energy to tell them again…I had an acknowledgment email etc and just thought bollocks, see them in court. 

I got the summons and rang them….no answer. Whilst the phone continued to ring I put my pods in and I walked round to the new empty massive £10m office. I asked reception to see someone and they said it’s a ring only service. I played my phone on loud and explained no answer for 1 hour…

I was told I could have an appointment on Wednesday mornings…at this point I lost it. A lady came down (who I knew) and took me outside.🤦🏻‍♂️😆.  Sheadmitted that she was going to retire from the bank but instead decide to work at the council and it was like retiring.  

Later a chap rang…of course it was a 2 minute thing to sort, DD went out and infact I paid the whole council tax for the year to avoid pissing about. 10 days later the house sold, I requested a refund which they had to send me. (Received fairly quick)…more admin for them. 

I now don’t let them get away with anything….and I drop emails when a bin isn’t collected etc and they need to reschedule, if they don’t I email them again. (All email cos that’s 2 minutes only if my time).

Systemic collapse feel very close (or beyond) in some areas. 

Looking at moving to public sector for this very reason, like being semi retired. Private sector wants and needs more productivity all the time to stay afloat for the same wage and the whole 60/40 pension thing is something to be weary of.

9 hours ago, Pip321 said:

EXACTLY the same for my area….including a new big building which is mostly empty cos every fucker works from home.

I told the council once about an empty property that I was selling and set up the DD via phone. It never went out. 

Due to family bereavement (dreadful 2023) I didn’t have the inclination or the energy to tell them again…I had an acknowledgment email etc and just thought bollocks, see them in court. 

I got the summons and rang them….no answer. Whilst the phone continued to ring I put my pods in and I walked round to the new empty massive £10m office. I asked reception to see someone and they said it’s a ring only service. I played my phone on loud and explained no answer for 1 hour…

I was told I could have an appointment on Wednesday mornings…at this point I lost it. A lady came down (who I knew) and took me outside.🤦🏻‍♂️😆.  Sheadmitted that she was going to retire from the bank but instead decide to work at the council and it was like retiring.  

Later a chap rang…of course it was a 2 minute thing to sort, DD went out and infact I paid the whole council tax for the year to avoid pissing about. 10 days later the house sold, I requested a refund which they had to send me. (Received fairly quick)…more admin for them. 

I now don’t let them get away with anything….and I drop emails when a bin isn’t collected etc and they need to reschedule, if they don’t I email them again. (All email cos that’s 2 minutes only if my time).

Systemic collapse feel very close (or beyond) in some areas. 

Forum shat itself.

9 hours ago, Pip321 said:

EXACTLY the same for my area….including a new big building which is mostly empty cos every fucker works from home.

I told the council once about an empty property that I was selling and set up the DD via phone. It never went out. 

Due to family bereavement (dreadful 2023) I didn’t have the inclination or the energy to tell them again…I had an acknowledgment email etc and just thought bollocks, see them in court. 

I got the summons and rang them….no answer. Whilst the phone continued to ring I put my pods in and I walked round to the new empty massive £10m office. I asked reception to see someone and they said it’s a ring only service. I played my phone on loud and explained no answer for 1 hour…

I was told I could have an appointment on Wednesday mornings…at this point I lost it. A lady came down (who I knew) and took me outside.🤦🏻‍♂️😆.  Sheadmitted that she was going to retire from the bank but instead decide to work at the council and it was like retiring.  

Later a chap rang…of course it was a 2 minute thing to sort, DD went out and infact I paid the whole council tax for the year to avoid pissing about. 10 days later the house sold, I requested a refund which they had to send me. (Received fairly quick)…more admin for them. 

I now don’t let them get away with anything….and I drop emails when a bin isn’t collected etc and they need to reschedule, if they don’t I email them again. (All email cos that’s 2 minutes only if my time).

Systemic collapse feel very close (or beyond) in some areas. 

And again.

Edited by Red Debt Redemption
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ashestoashes

GBNews saying EU in recession partly to do with energy costs, electricity 3 times the cost of US electricity, funnily enough

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