Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Democorruptcy]

24 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

BodyShop has gone under, actually quite shocked about that one as it always seemed busy and alot people like their products but they did go woke so...

 

But then reading up on it since 2006 its been passed round owned by different companies and debt as usual then a private equity firm owned it for the last 3 month Aurelius

It was always going to be in trouble once the chamomile cleansing butter went up to £30 per 100ml. No way I'm paying that much.

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I think their full yrear sare nbound CV.be interesting to see if anythign major ahs changed in terms of balacne

https://reports.sibanyestillwater.com/2022/download/ssw-AFR22.pdf

Sibanye is a share that will make you big profits over the years,but its also one you have to be prepared to take a lot of pain on,sometimes for a a long time.Id like to see it smashed down a bit more,but then will likely turn into a multi bagger again.Its not in the production figures,but they have a very large amount of uranium as well.Their tailings are stuffed with it,and their deep gold mines.I suspect they will develop a deposit and get into it.These deep South African gold miners could be Uranium miners if they wanted and given Uranium will enter a bubble at some point the likes of Sibanye might go bubble heights as well on uranium reserves etc.

[PatronizingGit]

On 12/02/2024 at 10:07, Chewing Grass said:

Probably what is behind the Climate Terror, can't have the plebs panicking or the land of Saud going mad-max just yet.

Then you see stuff like 'Saudis lobbying for africa to become dependent on ICE cars, more uneconomical superfast jets'

Cheap cars, supersonic jets and floating power plants: Undercover in Saudi Arabia’s secretive program to keep the world burning oil – Centre for Climate Reporting (climate-reporting.org)

And think...they still got tonnes of the black shit.

 

All that I know is that in a world of rent seekers, its usually in their interests to pursue this idea of permanent scarcity, whether real or not. 

[Calcutta]

8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Sibanye is a share that will make you big profits over the years,but its also one you have to be prepared to take a lot of pain on,sometimes for a a long time.Id like to see it smashed down a bit more,but then will likely turn into a multi bagger again.Its not in the production figures,but they have a very large amount of uranium as well.Their tailings are stuffed with it,and their deep gold mines.I suspect they will develop a deposit and get into it.These deep South African gold miners could be Uranium miners if they wanted and given Uranium will enter a bubble at some point the likes of Sibanye might go bubble heights as well on uranium reserves etc.

There's something you said years ago about ounces in the ground and pm mining companies, I don't remember now if that was on the way up or the way down. It made sense at the time but was so long ago I've forgotten. 

I'm sure it was a solid point, my memory is fucked from all the drugs and head injuries tho. 

[marceau]

51 minutes ago, baffledbyzirp said:

In 2001 we sold off a large chunk of Britain's gold reserves known generally as the Brown Bottom. We also had a windfall gain from the sale of 3G licences in 2000 which boosted the coffers by £20 Bill of unanticipated cashflow. The numbers all point in the same direction over a 50 year period except for around the millennium and the end of the 80s early 90s. The charts are a graphical representation of national bankruptcy. During the period we have sold off water, gas, coal, the electricity network, power stations, BA, Royal Mail, British Steel, the car industry, telecoms, roads (toll), bridges, parts of the NHS, data, airports, land, social housing stock etc. What is left to sell? Perhaps our integrity or the Royal Family. God knows our credibility was paupered a long time ago.

Our imbecile elites are 100% in on vassaldom to the US, everything else has been jettisoned. It's a historic mistake that will end them. The trick is to avoid going down with them.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

This looks like a disaster waiting to happen

 

Its funny,but i have been thinking this for a while,and it could see the collapse of the UK pension system.Its why i would not touch the likes of Legal and General.Company gets rid of the liability.Insurance company makes out like bandits making margin,but by themselves offloading to some dodgy re-insurance company.They go bust,insurance company goes bust,no pensions.Regulators asleep as the wheel again.Its one thing puts me off Abrdn a bit,they still own £500 million worth of Pheonix and have a lot of AUM for them.That Pheonix stake pays £50mill in divis,but if they sold it they could do £500mill share buyback saving £40mill of div cost.They keep the stake because they get so much business from Pheonix,but it will be the low margin stuff and they should offload the stake.

On M&G they have huge potential for big gains,but i sold them for a small profit because of the above.I just smell bombs that could go off.

Most of the problems have been caused by governments spending too much on consumption etc.A key thing on if things implode or do well is where all the huge amount of EM savings that are coming go.If they stay internal in the block we will likely see a lot of the western financial system roll over.

[BurntBread]

11 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Palladium’s halved over the past year. There was the whole EVs narrative but all the Western automakers are cutting back on them. 

I think you're saying that "everyone" expects ICE cars to disappear, and 85% of palladium is used for catalytic converters?

Correct me if I'm talking nonsense, but would the recent fall in palladium prices be down to the general decline in the car market in the West, due to affordability issues (rather than the EV narrative being true)?

In that case, Sibanye is a bet on 3 things simultaneously: (a) the replacement-by-EV narrative being false for economic reasons, (b) ICE ownership eventually increases, but probably in emerging markets rather than the West, and (c) those emerging markets value catalytic converters as a genuine environmental benefit to reduce local pollution.

In that case, being long Sib amounts to being short the big-picture climate narrative, and being long EMs. Also, as DB says, also a side-play on uranium (i.e. a sane energy policy).

Potentially more pain to come,  but if their balance sheet is strong enough to take them through some losses -- or better still if they remain profitable, then I like that bet (with the caveat that I'm prepared to lose it all if I'm wrong).

Decl: I have a small position already, which I'm down 50% on.

[DurhamBorn]

16 minutes ago, Calcutta said:

There's something you said years ago about ounces in the ground and pm mining companies, I don't remember now if that was on the way up or the way down. It made sense at the time but was so long ago I've forgotten. 

I'm sure it was a solid point, my memory is fucked from all the drugs and head injuries tho. 

In bubble markets they start to value them not just on production,but on resources in the ground.So if Sibanye starts issuing guidance of oz in the ground of Uranium for instance at its assets,once there is a uranium bubble,you get people who say Sibanye is worth 10x the price just on 10% of its Uranium,but of course thats uranium that needs a  7 year long project mine building at least.

Sibanye has superb management.They tend to buy assets ,even using debt when everything looks shit,they know the cycles,then are very well rewarded later.I notice they are now debt free,so likely they are watching a few targets now.They have made me a huge amount over the years,im very tempted to buy a big holding here ,maybe in 3 tranches.Last time i sold them way too early.I had a really big holding at below $4,really big,but decided i had too much in South Africa with a very big holding in Harmony as well and Ashanti so sold Sibanye at around $6.80.Cost me a huge amount of £ profit.

 

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its funny,but i have been thinking this for a while,and it could see the collapse of the UK pension system.Its why i would not touch the likes of Legal and General.Company gets rid of the liability.Insurance company makes out like bandits making margin,but by themselves offloading to some dodgy re-insurance company.They go bust,insurance company goes bust,no pensions.Regulators asleep as the wheel again.Its one thing puts me off Abrdn a bit,they still own £500 million worth of Pheonix and have a lot of AUM for them.That Pheonix stake pays £50mill in divis,but if they sold it they could do £500mill share buyback saving £40mill of div cost.They keep the stake because they get so much business from Pheonix,but it will be the low margin stuff and they should offload the stake.

On M&G they have huge potential for big gains,but i sold them for a small profit because of the above.I just smell bombs that could go off.

Most of the problems have been caused by governments spending too much on consumption etc.A key thing on if things implode or do well is where all the huge amount of EM savings that are coming go.If they stay internal in the block we will likely see a lot of the western financial system roll over.

If the BoE say they might look into it, then it's probably already too late.

 

[onlyme]

21 hours ago, Errol said:

Insurance generally covers foreseen unforeseens.

Insurance is unnecessary until you need it.

[marceau]

41 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

A key thing on if things implode or do well is where all the huge amount of EM savings that are coming go.If they stay internal in the block we will likely see a lot of the western financial system roll over.

I'm sure Uncle Sam will be keen to keep all the good stuff for themselves, and that will include the UK & EU good stuff. There's what the EMs will be looking to buy, and what they'll be allowed to buy.

We're in the US empire, and ultimately we'll follow their rules, even if its greatly detrimental.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, marceau said:

For the record I don't think the PM sell off is over. Gold pissed away too much time around the highs during this cycle; the longer the wait for the 'inevitable' triple test (Tavi Costa ) breakout took, the less time there was left in the cycle to test the downside. That generally means the corrections have to break significant lows in very short periods of time. It could get messy.

It's gone too long without correction, and there's too many longs massed in the trade waiting to be flushed out. Could last a couple of weeks, could last a couple of months, but if they get that flush (without nuking gold's technicals) I want to be buying the best of what their selling. The miners have to offer a better proposition than other forms of leverage I can get on the underlying. I'm not touching the streamers at all.

On every singificant run up in gold,I try and liberate some profit and reorganirse our PM portfolio.This time round I sold BVN which we had 2% in that doubled.Also sold our new gold 2% at $1.40 for a small profit(too big a position for a company with rpoblems but it was purachesed in ladders from 2018 when I had less clue ref PMs-still dont mind )

I'm sat waiting but very happy with whats happening I'm pciking shares up way belwo what we sold them for in both 2020 and 2022.

@Lightscribe has had some super turn calls in PMs these last two years(when my option positions got hosed for 100% losses),be interesting to know whether hes buying yet? no pressure.

Im taking it easy,we have positions in SIbanye and Newmont both down 30% I reckon(but we previously sold them at $13 and $75 so easy to sit on them.

Ref the royalties,Im a bit like you as in I would avoid but price can fix everything.If Sand get cheap enough.....

50 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

.Its not in the production figures,but they have a very large amount of uranium as well.Their tailings are stuffed with it,and their deep gold mines.I suspect they will develop a deposit and get into it.These deep South African gold miners could be Uranium miners if they wanted and given Uranium will enter a bubble at some point the likes of Sibanye might go bubble heights as well on uranium reserves etc.

Think you're right ref the pain on sib.these arent for widows and orphans.

but it's an amazing resource company,super geogrpahical/commodity spread .There is SA political risk but these companies are used to managing it.

June 23 but from the CEO.Whether we go down the death of fiat route,net zero or modular nuclear....tehy have something for every govt.

SInce June 23 Uranium has nearly doubled.

https://www.miningmx.com/news/gold/53709-froneman-turns-down-dial-on-uranium-as-sibanye-focuses-on-1-05bn-lithium-projects/

SIBANYE-Stillwater has shelved plans to develop its uranium assets as the role of the fuel in future energy systems would not be as significant as forecast.

“Uranium or nuclear energy will play a role but our assessment is that it’s not as high as originally thought,” said Neal Froneman, CEO of Sibanye-Stillwater. “It is disappointing in a way because we sit on a lot of uranium.”

Sibanye-Stillwater declared mineral resources of 66.6 million pounds in its 2022 mineral resources and mineral reserves report. These are located at its Cooke shafts which are currently on care and maintenance and at Beatrix, a gold mine in the Free State that was first developed to be a uranium mine.

Froneman’s comments represent a reversal of the group’s earlier strategy which put the emphasis on developing downstream nuclear energy.

 

 

https://reports.sibanyestillwater.com/2022/

 

Decl:we have a 2.5% position at $6 in Sib

[Axeman123]

3 hours ago, marceau said:

For the record I don't think the PM sell off is over.

The counter arguement is that it is all down to US rates and the dollar. AIUI both are up against long-term resistance lines, and overstretched. IF they move down significantly PMs and miners can only go up.

The sentiment is getting extreme too, exactly what you would want to see at a major bottom. When even bulls are calling for another leg down first you have to wonder IMO.

Who knows though, we will have to...

WATCH AND LEARN

[marceau]

8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

On every singificant run up in gold,I try and liberate some profit and reorganirse our PM portfolio.This time round I sold BVN which we had 2% in that doubled.Also sold our new gold 2% at $1.40 for a small profit(too big a position for a company with rpoblems but it was purachesed in ladders from 2018 when I had less clue ref PMs-still dont mind )

I'm sat waiting but very happy with whats happening I'm pciking shares up way belwo what we sold them for in both 2020 and 2022.

@Lightscribe has had some super turn calls in PMs these last two years(when my option positions got hosed for 100% losses),be interesting to know whether hes buying yet? no pressure.

Im taking it easy,we have positions in SIbanye and Newmont both down 30% I reckon(but we previously sold them at $13 and $75 so easy to sit on them.

Ref the royalties,Im a bit like you as in I would avoid but price can fix everything.If Sand get cheap enough.....

Think you're right ref the pain on sib.these arent for widows and orphans.

but it's an amazing resource company,super geogrpahical/commodity spread .There is SA political risk but these companies are used to managing it.

June 23 but from the CEO.Whether we go down the death of fiat route,net zero or modular nuclear....tehy have something for every govt.

SInce June 23 Uranium has nearly doubled.

https://www.miningmx.com/news/gold/53709-froneman-turns-down-dial-on-uranium-as-sibanye-focuses-on-1-05bn-lithium-projects/

SIBANYE-Stillwater has shelved plans to develop its uranium assets as the role of the fuel in future energy systems would not be as significant as forecast.

“Uranium or nuclear energy will play a role but our assessment is that it’s not as high as originally thought,” said Neal Froneman, CEO of Sibanye-Stillwater. “It is disappointing in a way because we sit on a lot of uranium.”

Sibanye-Stillwater declared mineral resources of 66.6 million pounds in its 2022 mineral resources and mineral reserves report. These are located at its Cooke shafts which are currently on care and maintenance and at Beatrix, a gold mine in the Free State that was first developed to be a uranium mine.

Froneman’s comments represent a reversal of the group’s earlier strategy which put the emphasis on developing downstream nuclear energy.

 

 

https://reports.sibanyestillwater.com/2022/

 

Decl:we have a 2.5% position at $6 in Sib

I've done pretty well in PMs since Mar 20. Although I'm not often on here, I've posted most of the turns I thought were coming on this thread and I think the record has been pretty good.

While it's satisfying to catch turns, it's not as profitable as trend, and that's what PMs have been lacking for a long time. Passively sitting in US stocks has netted me far more than all my PM trades combined.

Fingers crossed, but I think oil will be trending strongly soon, and PMs will finally get there at some point this year.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The counter arguement is that it is all down to US rates and the dollar. AIUI both are up against long-term resistance lines, and overstretched. IF they move down significantly PMs and miners can only go up.

The sentiment is getting extreme too, exactly what you would want to see at a major bottom. When even bulls are calling for another leg down first you have to wonder IMO.

Who knows though, we will have to...

WATCH AND LEARN

And we are indeed due a drop back to ~1850, but in the bust not before according to Dave H.  Could be another one where people FOMO in after waiting for it

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, baffledbyzirp said:

In 2001 we sold off a large chunk of Britain's gold reserves known generally as the Brown Bottom. We also had a windfall gain from the sale of 3G licences in 2000 which boosted the coffers by £20 Bill of unanticipated cashflow. The numbers all point in the same direction over a 50 year period except for around the millennium and the end of the 80s early 90s. The charts are a graphical representation of national bankruptcy. During the period we have sold off water, gas, coal, the electricity network, power stations, BA, Royal Mail, British Steel, the car industry, telecoms, roads (toll), bridges, parts of the NHS, data, airports, land, social housing stock etc. What is left to sell? Perhaps our integrity or the Royal Family. God knows our credibility was paupered a long time ago.

I've just priced up our national integrity. Came up with a negative number. Shame.

[marceau]

1 minute ago, Axeman123 said:

The counter arguement is that it is all down to US rates and the dollar. AIUI both are up against long-term resistance lines, and overstretched. IF they move down significantly PMs and miners can only go up.

The sentiment is getting extreme too, exactly what you would want to see at a major bottom. When even bulls are calling for another leg down first you have to wonder IMO.

Who knows though, we will have to...

WATCH AND LEARN

I don't think we're far off, and it's absolutely based on the dollar rally.

I think gold all-time highs have drawn too much attention and people have ignored the dollar. The best thing is that the next week or two teaches them a painful lesson and we can clear out positions for a continuation of the move that started last Oct. If the downside doesn't come, it'll just draw things out. Selloffs are healthy.

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

On every singificant run up in gold,I try and liberate some profit and reorganirse our PM portfolio.This time round I sold BVN which we had 2% in that doubled.Also sold our new gold 2% at $1.40 for a small profit(too big a position for a company with rpoblems but it was purachesed in ladders from 2018 when I had less clue ref PMs-still dont mind )

I'm sat waiting but very happy with whats happening I'm pciking shares up way belwo what we sold them for in both 2020 and 2022.

@Lightscribe has had some super turn calls in PMs these last two years(when my option positions got hosed for 100% losses),be interesting to know whether hes buying yet? no pressure.

Im taking it easy,we have positions in SIbanye and Newmont both down 30% I reckon(but we previously sold them at $13 and $75 so easy to sit on them.

Ref the royalties,Im a bit like you as in I would avoid but price can fix everything.If Sand get cheap enough.....

Think you're right ref the pain on sib.these arent for widows and orphans.

but it's an amazing resource company,super geogrpahical/commodity spread .There is SA political risk but these companies are used to managing it.

June 23 but from the CEO.Whether we go down the death of fiat route,net zero or modular nuclear....tehy have something for every govt.

SInce June 23 Uranium has nearly doubled.

https://www.miningmx.com/news/gold/53709-froneman-turns-down-dial-on-uranium-as-sibanye-focuses-on-1-05bn-lithium-projects/

SIBANYE-Stillwater has shelved plans to develop its uranium assets as the role of the fuel in future energy systems would not be as significant as forecast.

“Uranium or nuclear energy will play a role but our assessment is that it’s not as high as originally thought,” said Neal Froneman, CEO of Sibanye-Stillwater. “It is disappointing in a way because we sit on a lot of uranium.”

Sibanye-Stillwater declared mineral resources of 66.6 million pounds in its 2022 mineral resources and mineral reserves report. These are located at its Cooke shafts which are currently on care and maintenance and at Beatrix, a gold mine in the Free State that was first developed to be a uranium mine.

Froneman’s comments represent a reversal of the group’s earlier strategy which put the emphasis on developing downstream nuclear energy.

 

 

https://reports.sibanyestillwater.com/2022/

 

Decl:we have a 2.5% position at $6 in Sib

They have superb management.I suspect they will develop their new assets over the next few years and they will have to be careful because they will cost a lot of capital (the Lithium mines in Finland and US mostly),but are debt free at the moment and have a $1bill revolving credit facility.They also have some very nice undeveloped assets like Marathon.I suspect they will slowly run down their gold assets and cash cow them,but they might try to keep them going on very slow decline.I very rarely own the gold mining companies,once a decade seems to be it,but iv done amazing out of them over the years.Very likely i will go big on Sibanye if they stay down or go a bit lower.

The irony is its higher inflation hitting them hard because of US rates staying up,but its that very inflation that will make them multi bag down the road.Not for widows and orphans.I think the way to look at Sibanye is in simple terms £20k in,£60k+ out,or nothing out,sit and wait,or in time lose it.Not for those who cry when underwater.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its funny,but i have been thinking this for a while,and it could see the collapse of the UK pension system.Its why i would not touch the likes of Legal and General.Company gets rid of the liability.Insurance company makes out like bandits making margin,but by themselves offloading to some dodgy re-insurance company.They go bust,insurance company goes bust,no pensions.Regulators asleep as the wheel again.Its one thing puts me off Abrdn a bit,they still own £500 million worth of Pheonix and have a lot of AUM for them.That Pheonix stake pays £50mill in divis,but if they sold it they could do £500mill share buyback saving £40mill of div cost.They keep the stake because they get so much business from Pheonix,but it will be the low margin stuff and they should offload the stake.

On M&G they have huge potential for big gains,but i sold them for a small profit because of the above.I just smell bombs that could go off.

Most of the problems have been caused by governments spending too much on consumption etc.A key thing on if things implode or do well is where all the huge amount of EM savings that are coming go.If they stay internal in the block we will likely see a lot of the western financial system roll over.

Great discussion this morning following @Democorruptcy earlier point.

It's made me realsie how unaware most people are as to how crap their retirement will be.Most people in the rpivate sector jsut chugging away paying into pension and jsut assume it'll be worth something....well.....because it always has....

couple of points.Mrs P come off ten years contributions into a final salary with a big blue chip.Theyve all been moved onto DC.Point is that I read the small rpint on her pension and it's only inflation linked up to 2.5%.Read that.This is one of the better private sector pesnions in the UK......

She has an ISA with HL that she put two years subs into(her life savings and deposti moeny for a hosue from before we met).Thanks to the last few years of opportunties and the excellent advice from the basement faithful particualrly yourself and @Cattle Prod but everyone else too, she is now receiving more in divis than she will get in final salary based on currrent projections and thats for 10 years pension subs

with ifnaltion running at 7% her final salary pesnion wil get wiped out.and this is one of the best not your average NEST fund which will be decimated by their manamgenet before inflation gets a chance.

lot of private sector workers going to retire angry imho.very angry.

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

In bubble markets they start to value them not just on production,but on resources in the ground.So if Sibanye starts issuing guidance of oz in the ground of Uranium for instance at its assets,once there is a uranium bubble,you get people who say Sibanye is worth 10x the price just on 10% of its Uranium,but of course thats uranium that needs a  7 year long project mine building at least.

Sibanye has superb management.They tend to buy assets ,even using debt when everything looks shit,they know the cycles,then are very well rewarded later.I notice they are now debt free,so likely they are watching a few targets now.They have made me a huge amount over the years,im very tempted to buy a big holding here ,maybe in 3 tranches.Last time i sold them way too early.I had a really big holding at below $4,really big,but decided i had too much in South Africa with a very big holding in Harmony as well and Ashanti so sold Sibanye at around $6.80.Cost me a huge amount of £ profit.

 

PE ratio with a 3 handle.

Im very tempted to average in with a big ladder.Although we have high risk tolerances so maybe not average punters,we sold our 2018 HMY $1.60 rcently so have no toerh SA exposure(mny thnaks as ever for leading teh basment into HMY/SIB back in 2018 DB)

The more we're tlaking on here the more sense it's beginning to make.

Net incoem is in ZAR which is 20 to the USD.

https://www.investing.com/equities/sibanye-gold-financial-summary

 

[Loki]

HPI -1.4% Year on year

Hey Stuart 

 

[sancho panza]

weve got a small 0.5% positon in BASF and must say it's getting tmepting to sell it and buy K&S

EU looks fubar

https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/the-deindustrialization-of-europe

The Deindustrialization Of Europe In Five Charts

Industrial electricity use in the EU is collapsing. US policymakers "Have no excuse for not looking at Europe and learning."

[Lightscribe]

42 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

On every singificant run up in gold,I try and liberate some profit and reorganirse our PM portfolio.This time round I sold BVN which we had 2% in that doubled.Also sold our new gold 2% at $1.40 for a small profit(too big a position for a company with rpoblems but it was purachesed in ladders from 2018 when I had less clue ref PMs-still dont mind )

I'm sat waiting but very happy with whats happening I'm pciking shares up way belwo what we sold them for in both 2020 and 2022.

@Lightscribe has had some super turn calls in PMs these last two years(when my option positions got hosed for 100% losses),be interesting to know whether hes buying yet? no pressure.

Im taking it easy,we have positions in SIbanye and Newmont both down 30% I reckon(but we previously sold them at $13 and $75 so easy to sit on them.

Ref the royalties,Im a bit like you as in I would avoid but price can fix everything.If Sand get cheap enough.....

Think you're right ref the pain on sib.these arent for widows and orphans.

but it's an amazing resource company,super geogrpahical/commodity spread .There is SA political risk but these companies are used to managing it.

June 23 but from the CEO.Whether we go down the death of fiat route,net zero or modular nuclear....tehy have something for every govt.

SInce June 23 Uranium has nearly doubled.

https://www.miningmx.com/news/gold/53709-froneman-turns-down-dial-on-uranium-as-sibanye-focuses-on-1-05bn-lithium-projects/

SIBANYE-Stillwater has shelved plans to develop its uranium assets as the role of the fuel in future energy systems would not be as significant as forecast.

“Uranium or nuclear energy will play a role but our assessment is that it’s not as high as originally thought,” said Neal Froneman, CEO of Sibanye-Stillwater. “It is disappointing in a way because we sit on a lot of uranium.”

Sibanye-Stillwater declared mineral resources of 66.6 million pounds in its 2022 mineral resources and mineral reserves report. These are located at its Cooke shafts which are currently on care and maintenance and at Beatrix, a gold mine in the Free State that was first developed to be a uranium mine.

Froneman’s comments represent a reversal of the group’s earlier strategy which put the emphasis on developing downstream nuclear energy.

 

 

https://reports.sibanyestillwater.com/2022/

 

Decl:we have a 2.5% position at $6 in Sib

PM miners are pretty much hated at the mo. AISC costs have hit the miners hard, and the manipulation past $2050 hasn't helped offset the costs. Hopefully the deflation in energy costs will start to turn that around.

An example of when someone fell asleep at the Mr.Slammy button was a couple of months back when it spiked to $2150 on a Sunday night. Whether or not that manipulation is muscle flexing due to BRICs fondness of gold is another matter. Central banks are swallowing it all up however (like in 2023) and that’s not by coincidence.

The world’s industry economies are in trouble, we can see that in China and Germany. Industry and energy was always going to suffer leading into recession.

King $ and the AI tech boom is just a result of all that QE being funneled further and further into a fewer and fewer companies. Fund managers desperate to perform so jumping on the bandwagon. There’s no analysis anymore. It’s just an extension of NFTs/crypto/meme stock mentality on a larger scale.

The $ needs to turn, and it will eventually. 2024 was always the year on my list for stagflation and I think we’re seeing that emerge now, and gold performs best in that environment historically.

Pity about Sibanye with their Uranium outlook. I think that’s a major plus for them and they’re making a mistake, hopefully they’ll change tack soon.

So yes I’m loaded in my gold/silver allocations and am happy to wait out this year. Most certainly not a time for junior miners however IMO (sorry @kibuc)

 

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

PM miners are pretty much hated at the mo. AISC costs have hit the miners hard, and the manipulation past $2050 hasn't helped offset the costs. Hopefully the deflation in energy costs will start to turn that around.

An example of when someone fell asleep at the Mr.Slammy button was a couple of months back when it spiked to $2150 on a Sunday night. Whether or not that manipulation is muscle flexing due to BRICs fondness of gold is another matter. Central banks are swallowing it all up however (like in 2023) and that’s not by coincidence.

The world’s industry economies are in trouble, we can see that in China and Germany. Industry and energy was always going to suffer leading into recession.

King $ and the AI tech boom is just a result of all that QE being funneled further and further into a fewer and fewer companies. Fund managers desperate to perform so jumping on the bandwagon. There’s no analysis anymore. It’s just an extension of NFTs/crypto/meme stock mentality on a larger scale.

The $ needs to turn, and it will eventually. 2024 was always the year on my list for stagflation and I think we’re seeing that emerge now, and gold performs best in that environment historically.

Pity about Sibanye with their Uranium outlook. I think that’s a major plus for them and they’re making a mistake, hopefully they’ll change tack soon.

So yes I’m loaded in my gold/silver allocations and am happy to wait out this year. Most certainly not a time for junior miners however IMO (sorry @kibuc)

 

They have fantastic managment,so i suspect they are simply lowering expectations rather than making a mistake because they need capital to built the Finnish and US lithium mines etc rather than Uranium.When they dont leach the uranium at the gold mines it just goes onto their tailings anyway.In other words they are mining it,just not leaching it.They might also be thinking it gives the options later if they want to keep the gold mines going.Their CEO and president are very very shrewd,i suspect if we do get a bubble market in Uranium they will start highlighting how much they have.

Harmony had a good uranium business,and they had a Yellowcake facility,but they sold it.A rare mistake from them,but that was their old management.They have a lot on their tailings as well.

[marceau]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

And we are indeed due a drop back to ~1850, but in the bust not before according to Dave H.  Could be another one where people FOMO in after waiting for it

Watching, learning.

 

[Democorruptcy]

32 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

PM miners are pretty much hated at the mo. AISC costs have hit the miners hard, and the manipulation past $2050 hasn't helped offset the costs. Hopefully the deflation in energy costs will start to turn that around.

An example of when someone fell asleep at the Mr.Slammy button was a couple of months back when it spiked to $2150 on a Sunday night. Whether or not that manipulation is muscle flexing due to BRICs fondness of gold is another matter. Central banks are swallowing it all up however (like in 2023) and that’s not by coincidence.

The world’s industry economies are in trouble, we can see that in China and Germany. Industry and energy was always going to suffer leading into recession.

King $ and the AI tech boom is just a result of all that QE being funneled further and further into a fewer and fewer companies. Fund managers desperate to perform so jumping on the bandwagon. There’s no analysis anymore. It’s just an extension of NFTs/crypto/meme stock mentality on a larger scale.

The $ needs to turn, and it will eventually. 2024 was always the year on my list for stagflation and I think we’re seeing that emerge now, and gold performs best in that environment historically.

Pity about Sibanye with their Uranium outlook. I think that’s a major plus for them and they’re making a mistake, hopefully they’ll change tack soon.

So yes I’m loaded in my gold/silver allocations and am happy to wait out this year. Most certainly not a time for junior miners however IMO (sorry @kibuc)

 

The apple of your eye has hit a new year low today. I've bought a cheaper ticket, choo... choo.....