Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[DoINeedOne]

Edited February 13 by DoINeedOne

[Chewing Grass]

1 hour ago, Long time lurking said:

I have not got a clue if this is correct ?

 

Kia EV9 is actually bigger and heavier than that pickup weighing in at 2600Kg, with a driver (not fat) it can hit 60mph faster than a Porsche 911, the 7 Seater offers class leading occupant protection (fuck everyone else it hits) at 2% BIK.

[marceau]

I don't own it and I've haven't followed it, but was browsing some PM names and noticed Sibanye has been trading below the Mar 20 lows for a while, even before today's sell off. Superficially looks like a great buy.

What's the catch? Does it have problems?

Edited February 13 by marceau

[Long time lurking]

4 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

@Transistor Man what do you make of this?

150 days to 2 hours *sounds* like quite the game-changer, but how much of the overall time and cost of producing one of these pressure vessels is currently tied up in that "150 days"?

https://bnnbreaking.com/world/sheffield-forgemasters-revolutionizes-nuclear-power-with-electron-beam-welding

Is it really a game changer ? 

It`s not like we are knocking out small module reactors every six months is it 

No doubt it`s a step forward for sure ,but China have a thorium SMR online already ,have we even got a test bed running ?

[Harley]

2 hours ago, invalid said:

 

You can claim back the additional 20% via tax return, for the first £10k. After that you have to contact HMRC, not sure if that means you can claim above that or not.

 

Depends on circumstances.  Seek professional advice.

Edited February 13 by Harley

[Bobthebuilder]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

time for some Arctic Monkeys methinks

Fucking tune.

First time I saw them was at Reading 11am in a tent at the back of the festival, you couldn't get in, 20 deep at the tent entrances. They headlined the main stage a year later. What a fucking band.

[wherebee]

2 hours ago, Kendo said:

Ouch! GDXJ down by 7% today - nearly touching last year’s low. Another day like today and it’ll be hitting the Sep 22 low.

buying opportunity.  i'll get some more, then sell when it is over 45.  rinse and repeat.

[Loki]

8 minutes ago, wherebee said:

buying opportunity.  i'll get some more, then sell when it is over 45.  rinse and repeat.

Buying low and selling high?  Yeah good luck with that

[wherebee]

Just now, Loki said:

Buying low and selling high?  Yeah good luck with that

I tried the other way but it was less successful.

[Loki]

Just now, wherebee said:

I tried the other way but it was less successful.

Well I'm not giving my secrets away for free

[Long time lurking]

37 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Fucking tune.

First time I saw them was at Reading 11am in a tent at the back of the festival, you couldn't get in, 20 deep at the tent entrances. They headlined the main stage a year later. What a fucking band.

I think these were inspired by them ,probably the best band that never was from Wales in decades 

 

[Pip321]

2 hours ago, Kendo said:

Ouch! GDXJ down by 7% today - nearly touching last year’s low. Another day like today and it’ll be hitting the Sep 22 low.

I only have access to the Blackrock Gold D acc fund in my SIPP (shit I know) and have been waiting for this dip to pile in for the long term.

So I am not clear that despite all the miners in the fund getting butt fucked today 🤣 that the fund went up 9p to 1127p. (0.8%).🤷🏻‍♂️

I assume there is a lag in reflecting actual price…I know it takes 2 days to buy so perhaps that’s it…..if not I guess everyone would sell/buy and game the fund. Ie so if I buy in the morning it takes 2 days by which time I imagine the price will begin to reflect today (and tomorrow, whatever that may be) when it eventually goes through? 

Just wondered if anyone else has come across this with funds and whether I am missing anything. 

Edited February 13 by Pip321

[Bobthebuilder]

17 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

I think these were inspired by them ,probably the best band that never was from Wales in decades 

Awesome.

It all started here IMHO.

The Strokes - You Only Live Once (Official HD Video) (youtube.com)

 

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, marceau said:

I don't own it and I've haven't followed it, but was browsing some PM names and noticed Sibanye has been trading below the Mar 20 lows for a while, even before today's sell off. Superficially looks like a great buy.

What's the catch? Does it have problems?

Palladium’s halved over the past year. There was the whole EVs narrative but all the Western automakers are cutting back on them. 

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, nirvana said:

Sheffield used to be a nice place to live......and they had the Leadmill, sister club to the Hacienda.....and loadsa nice ale......then they flooded it with gimmigrants and turned it into a shithole.......whole place needs nuking and washing down the plughole nowadays

edit: fuk me the Leadmill is still going.......time for some Arctic Monkeys methinks lol

 

In my ruthless shag my way around the country using Plentyoffish and Girlsdateforfree days i ended up falling for one in Sheffield,Killamarsh on the outskirts.She got off the train when i met her and she was stunning.I though shit im out of my league on this one,so i had to pull every trick.Doubled up on Kamagra jellies ,even a bloody Dido CD and then the coup de grace,when she went home i didnt txt her.That phone was begging me to txt,i was sweating,like cold turkey, but i resisted.Then it happened.She txt me "i thought we had a fantastic night,but i guess you didnt seeing as you cant even be bothered to ask if im home ok".I just sat down and knew id cracked it,likely the first bloke to ever not txt her within 5 seconds.Saw her for a couple of years,but it all went tits up,and i headed back north past Ferrybridge Cooling towers broken hearted wishing the 80s film Threads was real and she had been nuked .

 

Edited February 13 by DurhamBorn

[Kendo]

56 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

I only have access to the Blackrock Gold D acc fund in my SIPP (shit I know) and have been waiting for this dip to pile in for the long term.

So I am not clear that despite all the miners in the fund getting butt fucked today 🤣 that the fund went up 9p to 1127p. (0.8%).🤷🏻‍♂️

I assume there is a lag in reflecting actual price…I know it takes 2 days to buy so perhaps that’s it…..if not I guess everyone would sell/buy and game the fund. Ie so if I buy in the morning it takes 2 days by which time I imagine the price will begin to reflect today (and tomorrow, whatever that may be) when it eventually goes through? 

Just wondered if anyone else has come across this with funds and whether I am missing anything. 

I’m certainly not the most informed but my understanding is that 2 days to clear is not unusual for commodity funds. Equity/bond funds clear quicker I think. Not sure why. More informed people than me might know.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, marceau said:

I don't own it and I've haven't followed it, but was browsing some PM names and noticed Sibanye has been trading below the Mar 20 lows for a while, even before today's sell off. Superficially looks like a great buy.

What's the catch? Does it have problems?

This is getting to be one of those contrarian moments me reckons

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Palladium’s halved over the past year. There was the whole EVs narrative but all the Western automakers are cutting back on them. 

I think their full yrear sare nbound CV.be interesting to see if anythign major ahs changed in terms of balacne

https://reports.sibanyestillwater.com/2022/download/ssw-AFR22.pdf

[sancho panza]

anotehr 'no sh1t sherlock' moment

2+2=25 etc etc

anotehr in the 'led by c*nts' series

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/13/labour-north-sea-tax-raid-trash-oil-gas-production-industry/

Labour’s North Sea tax raid will ‘trash oil and gas production’

Labour’s proposed North Sea tax increases would drive out investment, destroy up to 100,000 jobs and cost the Treasury £20bn in lost revenues, energy experts have warned.

Analysis by investment bank Stifel suggests Sir Keir Starmer’s plans to increase and extend windfall taxes on the industry will cost the country far more than they raise.

It follows the launch of Labour’s Green Prosperity Plan last week in the wake of the party’s decision to scrap a pledge to invest £28bn a year in clean energy.

 

 

Under the new proposals, Labour hopes to raise an extra £11bn from the UK’s oil and gas industry by increasing and extending the windfall tax, with the funds invested in “clean power to cut bills for families.”

However, Chris Wheaton, an oil and gas analyst with Stifel, warned in a report: “We estimate the UK will lose £20bn in tax revenues, with maybe 100,000 jobs at risk, both directly and indirectly employed, and a £40bn reduction in investment between now and 2030.”

Edited February 14 by sancho panza

[Bricks & Mortar]

6 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

I have not got a clue if this is correct ?

I was hoping for a collapse in the price of used trucks.  It seems I'll be disappointed in the near term, as it's only for new trucks from 2024.  Existing trucks will continue on the current tax until 2028, or the lease expires.
I guess there might be good sales of new trucks in the next few months, and a glut of 4 year old ones in 2028 though.  Perhaps I'll plan to buy one of those.   (I wouldn't be issuing it to anyone as a company vehicle, so I don't think I'd have to pay the benefit-in-kind tax.  Would totally take the back seats out if I had to.)  

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/consumer/pick-ups-face-huge-tax-hike-they-lose-commercial-vehicle-status

[marceau]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

This is getting to be one of those contrarian moments me reckons

For the record I don't think the PM sell off is over. Gold pissed away too much time around the highs during this cycle; the longer the wait for the 'inevitable' triple test (Tavi Costa ) breakout took, the less time there was left in the cycle to test the downside. That generally means the corrections have to break significant lows in very short periods of time. It could get messy.

It's gone too long without correction, and there's too many longs massed in the trade waiting to be flushed out. Could last a couple of weeks, could last a couple of months, but if they get that flush (without nuking gold's technicals) I want to be buying the best of what their selling. The miners have to offer a better proposition than other forms of leverage I can get on the underlying. I'm not touching the streamers at all.

[Democorruptcy]

This looks like a disaster waiting to happen

Quote

 

Bank of England plans to stress test insurers on exposure to reinsurance firms

New ‘exploratory scenario’ comes as concerns mount about risk posed by offshore arrangement to UK savers

UK businesses are offloading about £50bn a year in pension liabilities to insurers, after rising interest rates improved pension scheme funding levels and fuelled activity in this market.

As insurers race to free up capital to do more deals, they are entering into transactions to pass on a slice of those liabilities — and the assets that back them — to reinsurers, which are often located offshore in places such as Bermuda.

The growing trend for these deals has prompted concern that they might be creating a vulnerability through what the PRA has called a “concentrated exposure to correlated, credit-focused reinsurers”. Pension trustees have also said they are worried about the potential threat from such arrangements.

The PRA has now told executives that, in next year’s stress test, it plans to include an “exploratory scenario”, modelling the impact on insurers of a failure in their funded reinsurance arrangements, people familiar with the matter told the Financial Times.

The scenario would probably include the collapse of a significant funded reinsurer being used by the life insurer, meaning that the risks are “recaptured” by the primary insurer, the people said. In such a situation, the insurer would be put back on the hook for the pension risks, but potentially without the assets that had been set aside.  

https://www.ft.com/content/cd8a972e-2f84-4cfa-a2c4-cd1114f83eab

 

 

[DoINeedOne]

BodyShop has gone under, actually quite shocked about that one as it always seemed busy and alot people in my family like their products but they did go woke so... Reading up on it since 2006 its been passed round owned by different companies and debt as usual then a private equity firm owned it for the last 3 month Aurelius

Edited February 14 by DoINeedOne

[ThoughtCriminal]

12 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

I have not got a clue if this is correct ?

 

That's going to absolutely kill the new pickup market. Only a fuckwit bureaucrat who's never worked a real job in his life would think that tradesmen don't use all five seats on jobs. 

Think I'll see if I can get a few pre July 2024 ones from copart as they'll be in big demand.

[baffledbyzirp]

20 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

23 years since we were in the black. How to piss your country down the drain in one simple chart.

In 2001 we sold off a large chunk of Britain's gold reserves known generally as the Brown Bottom. We also had a windfall gain from the sale of 3G licences in 2000 which boosted the coffers by £20 Bill of unanticipated cashflow. The numbers all point in the same direction over a 50 year period except for around the millennium and the end of the 80s early 90s. The charts are a graphical representation of national bankruptcy. During the period we have sold off water, gas, coal, the electricity network, power stations, BA, Royal Mail, British Steel, the car industry, telecoms, roads (toll), bridges, parts of the NHS, data, airports, land, social housing stock etc. What is left to sell? Perhaps our integrity or the Royal Family. God knows our credibility was paupered a long time ago.