Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Great find,yep the start of the end of net neutrality.Likely the big users will decide to do deals before forced and up their fees.Telcos will of told government,let us do this or forget your 15 minutes cities etc we cant invest because we cannot make our cost of capital.It will take a while,maybe years,but i can wait,they could multi bag and multi the divis.

The one thing that sometimes pisses me off with the thread is when people expect us to time perfectly.That isnt what macro strategy is,its about spotting whats coming way before others even consider it.That move from OFCOM is huge,yet few will understand it.They have fired the gun to big tech having to pay big telco more,or kiss goodbye to your reputation as we throttle your traffic.

 

Before the macro police start tapping folk on the shoulder again. You have posted about buying, selling then rebuying the same stuff, trying to time up/down price movements. Not just buying and holding for a macro cycle. BT is one example.

[Harley]

A good (very clear) Armstrong interview:

https://www.buzzsprout.com/1979283/14470393-neocon-war-machine-is-driving-global-economy-to-disaster-martin-armstrong.mp3

IMO talks a lot of sense.

David Hunter has been on the State of the Markets so expecting the podcast soon.

https://nitter.soopy.moe/sotmpc/status/1757690637321679290#m

Tim and Paul should be Basement dwellers if not already.

Edited February 15 by Harley

[Plan-b]

With the UK now officially in recession we cant really afford to be doing this kind of thing. In this case it was a mistake and the property was not CPO'd, sounds like there's not enough empty properties available; so how long before the Government says 'your house is too big for you - you will take in these people or we'll compulsory purchase your place and you can downsize to a smaller home with the proceeds. Of course it may never happen, but who thought any of this would ever happen in the UK.

“What on earth is the council doing forcing people to sell their houses – and even an empty house is owned by someone – so that asylum seekers can live in them?” said Jose. “The answer to this is to stop them coming in the first place, not to force people out of their homes.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/14/elderly-couple-northampton-council-sell-home-asylum-seekers/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-onward-journey

 

[Democorruptcy]

24 minutes ago, nirvana said:

what sort of market does that? I'd run a fekkin mile from it......they can manipulate the shite out of the price in that time...

no market should be that 'opaque'.....

The transaction delay must give Fund managers the opportunity to skim something off both sides when people are buying/selling. The more volatile days must give them the scope to skim a larger amount.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I should add on the telcos.They pay their taxes and they invest directly into every community.Big tech avoids its taxes and does not invest anywhere but a few hubs.One of the best ways to ensure they start to pay more is to allow telcos to take it off them and pay the extra tax.The telcos could destroy almost every big tech firm tomorrow.Why should my capital not get the return it deserves so Bezos can trouser more billions?.Telefonica are really pushing the EU on it as well,and doing a good job,OFCOMs move will hopefully give them more ammo.Telcos,goldies and EMs running hot together would have me the 2nd happiest person in Durham after my masseuse.

I'm getting concerned about localised Masseuse Price Inflation in the Durham area.

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

The transaction delay must give Fund managers the opportunity to skim something off both sides when people are buying/selling. The more volatile days must give them the scope to skim a larger amount.

aye....'front running' it's called.......will be rife.......I think it was those Robinhood fekkers who finally admitted to front running most of their punters.....good game, good game lol

[marceau]

3 minutes ago, Plan-b said:

With the UK now officially in recession we cant really afford to be doing this kind of thing. In this case it was a mistake and the property was not CPO'd, sounds like there's not enough empty properties available; so how long before the Government says 'your house is too big for you - you will take in these people or we'll compulsory purchase your place and you can downsize to a smaller home with the proceeds. Of course it may never happen, but who thought any of this would ever happen in the UK.

“What on earth is the council doing forcing people to sell their houses – and even an empty house is owned by someone – so that asylum seekers can live in them?” said Jose. “The answer to this is to stop them coming in the first place, not to force people out of their homes.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/14/elderly-couple-northampton-council-sell-home-asylum-seekers/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-onward-journey

 

As it stands all the boomer property 'wealth' is going to end up in the hands of the dingy-people anyway. This just shortens the process. 

[DurhamBorn]

14 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Before the macro police start tapping folk on the shoulder again. You have posted about buying, selling then rebuying the same stuff, trying to time up/down price movements. Not just buying and holding for a macro cycle. BT is one example.

Thats not about timing buying them though,its about them doubling very quickly and repositioning into other things mostly in the same sector.Iv been selling some Verizon for instance (30% profits in a few months) and buying back BT.The point is it is up to any individual to choose what and when to buy or sell anything.The trends are starting to play out.My two bull cases for telcos were inflation forcing prices up and the ending of net neutrality,both are now in play,both are happening.I think looking back over many years we are superb at spotting whats coming,but maybe we are so good we invest too early before anyone else understands and should wait a bit @Harley technicals maybe?,though ladders help.Telcos are on very low PEs and they might be about to be given much more pricing power.We expected it 3 years ago,it just took longer than expected to happen and it might take longer yet for the market to spot it.

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats not about timing buying them though,its about them doubling very quickly and repositioning into other things mostly in the same sector.Iv been selling some Verizon for instance (30% profits in a few months) and buying back BT.The point is it is up to any individual to choose what and when to buy or sell anything.The trends are starting to play out.My two bull cases for telcos were inflation forcing prices up and the ending of net neutrality,both are now in play,both are happening.I think looking back over many years we are superb at spotting whats coming,but maybe we are so good we invest too early before anyone else understands and should wait a bit @Harley technicals maybe?,though ladders help.Telcos are on very low PEs and they might be about to be given much more pricing power.We expected it 3 years ago,it just took longer than expected to happen and it might take longer yet for the market to spot it.

The telco PEs are looking silly now when they are lower than the dividend.

By the way when I post something is down in price, it's not a complaint because I hadn't bought any at the higher price. Being a bottom feeder it's more of look to buy it buy signal.

[DurhamBorn]

Now notice this.They are right on its one of the reasons,but they make one huge huge mistake.Can you spot it?.Chief economist,the same mistake as the BOE are making.Those people ARE consuming,thats the problem,they are consuming more and more and producing nothing in a cost push distribution cycle.Its lack of production,not lack of consumption.Classical economics says increasing welfare etc increases demand,economy responds with production.Not this cycle it doesnt.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/15/ftse-100-markets-news-latest-uk-in-recession-live/?li_source=LI&li_medium=for_you

Grant Fitzner, chief economist at the ONS, said: “If more people were in work, consuming, producing, etcetera, we would have higher GDP numbers. 

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

The telco PEs are looking silly now when they are lower than the dividend.

By the way when I post something is down in price, it's not a complaint because I hadn't bought any at the higher price. Being a bottom feeder it's more of look to buy it buy signal.

Its been a tough year really,but these last few weeks im noticing lots of little signals almost all of our areas might be about to run.Can you imagine if the OFCOM changes had been bullish for the bubble stocks,they would rocket on the news.Telcos are so hated nobody follows them really.Yet that change is really bullish,if it leads to where i think it will.I guess we should not complain,its this complete lack of interest in the areas that gain most from the cycle that means basement dwellers like us lot can profit.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Great find,yep the start of the end of net neutrality.Likely the big users will decide to do deals before forced and up their fees.Telcos will of told government,let us do this or forget your 15 minutes cities etc we cant invest because we cannot make our cost of capital.It will take a while,maybe years,but i can wait,they could multi bag and multi the divis.

The one thing that sometimes pisses me off with the thread is when people expect us to time perfectly.That isnt what macro strategy is,its about spotting whats coming way before others even consider it.That move from OFCOM is huge,yet few will understand it.They have fired the gun to big tech having to pay big telco more,or kiss goodbye to your reputation as we throttle your traffic.

 

EU are doing the same. Think Ofcom are simply following their lead.

[Pip321]

47 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

The transaction delay must give Fund managers the opportunity to skim something off both sides when people are buying/selling. The more volatile days must give them the scope to skim a larger amount.

Agree, and it’s far from ideal…..

I have been tracking the fund and understand now how it times price changes and can coordinate timings to suit. Basically you don’t wait for the drop….you watch the market and place the order in anticipation of the drop or if selling you place the order the day the underlying shares rise. You don’t use the fund price itself. 

So 2 days have passed and now Blackrock Gold has now dropped 4% as expected….had I placed my order when the underlying shares dropped my buy would be executed today reflecting the lower price.

As I say though it far from ideal….but many funds have these execution delays. It’s not the end of the world it’s just absolutely not for trading….its for dropping in big ladders and getting a tiny advantage on purchases you expect to sit on for months and years. 

[Bobthebuilder]

45 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Verizon for instance (30% profits in a few months)

You make bloody decent trading calls sometimes DB, you posted a week back about selling Verizon at 30%, since then it has dropped down to 15%.

Good call.

[Onsamui]

2 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

Following up @sancho panza's post citing the Telegraph article regarding the UK going down the pan, our local council is leading the way it seems. When they can be bothered to to go into work, they are sat in their fancy new office block whilst they they fail to carry out basic services like collecting the bins.

Our recycling collection has been a little erratic and now the garden waste bin collections appear to have stopped. One of our neighbours contacted the council and was told "unfortunately the brown bin collections have been suspended and at the moment we don't know when they are starting back as we are continuing to experience issues with our kerbside collection driver availability"

I mean, this is just a bloke sat at on his backside driving a lorry up and down streets. Not exactly rocket science.

And, don't talk to me about the planning department.......

We don't recycle. Bin person friend said most of it goes into land fill anyway. It is about little Hitler Councillor's ego and using expensive water to clean them out. Where we live it is a sea of bins, black, green, red bags, litter blowing everywhere, and the seagulls are very fat.

[DurhamBorn]

24 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

You make bloody decent trading calls sometimes DB, you posted a week back about selling Verizon at 30%, since then it has dropped down to 15%.

Good call.

No skill in it at all selling,i only sold to buy more BT and did not want more telcos exposure and i figured the gap up would need filling for a while,i also still own some,like you say up 15% plus 4% divs now.Im considering selling the rest to buy more goldies though.Verizon looks a decent price still and id be glad to hold it,but its on the chopping block if i want more miners.I think the most value is in European telcos and ones covering South East Asia,Verizon just got to a ridiculous price.

[JMD]

13 hours ago, sancho panza said:

ALlistair Heath goes full basement dweller,MSM been nipping down ehre in theur tea breaks?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/14/for-the-first-time-im-beginning-to-think-britain-is-finishe/

For the first time in my life, I’m now beginning to think Britain is finished

The country’s self-image as tolerant, decent and hard-working is being smashed. It’s only going to get worse

Britain’s decline over the past 25 years has been staggeringly rapid. Almost everything is getting worse, and almost nothing is getting better. Our public and private institutions are broken, presided over by an incompetent, selfish and narcissistic ruling class. Living standards, when adjusted properly for living and property costs, are declining. 

Even the simplest things don’t work any longer. Queuing, scarcity and congestion are rife, our infrastructure is embarrassingly poor, and the honest and hardworking face endless bureaucratic battles to obtain what they are due. Free riding, crime, disorder, fraud, littering and generalised rule-bending are rife, and all too often tolerated by apathetic citizens and an indifferent state. Britain’s residual virtues, our individualism, independence of mind, tolerance and openness, uniquely appealing features of our national character, are fading. 

Like a frog in boiling water, few saw the full scale of the decline coming until it was too late, and those who did were ridiculed by the bien-pensant. Yet even in 2024, when millions now realise that Britain is on the wrong track, there is no hope of meaningful improvement. The Tories have been abysmal, but Labour will be even worse: Keir Starmer will double down on the social-democratic and culturally nihilistic policies tested to destruction by the Conservatives.

 

 

In the 2000s, Britain had a particular idea of itself: a country of post-Thatcherite property-owners which reconciled modernity and tradition, globalisation and national self-determination, low-tax dynamism and fairness, where you didn’t need IDs to vote, where MPs weren’t attacked by screaming mobs, and where, finally, racism was increasingly a thing of the past. We saw ourselves as a socially mobile, law-abiding land of high trust, low corruption, the rule of law, improving race relations and religious toleration: a uniquely open society and a model to the Western world. 

Such a vision is now largely obsolete. An Englishman’s home was his castle, making a huge difference to our national psyche, until our deliberate policy of rationing new housing at a time of mass immigration robbed the under-40s of the chance of owning anything of their own. “This is a free country”, we used to maintain when presented with another idiotic proposal to control us, but that too is over, killed off by the woke war on free speech, the jailing of Christian preachers, the sugar tax, the surveillance society and the Covid lockdowns. 

 

 

In narrow GDP growth terms, we continue to outperform the true laggards on the continent, as Brexiteers correctly predicted, but that should be no consolation. Our manufacturing sector is being priced out of global markets by the rush to net zero, our energy policy is a hideous farce, our misregulated City is in decline, and our tax system an absurd conspiracy against hard work and merit, with marginal tax rates back at 1970s levels for some. 

The socialist NHS, despite massive increases in funding, is a horror show, and one of the main reasons not to live in the UK. Some 5.6 million adults are on out-of-work benefits, and yet immigration is running at extraordinary levels. Our Armed Forces have been slashed, and are now being subject to a woke takeover. 

 

Yes a very good article by Alistair Heath covering all the basis so I agree the author has been doing his research. Perhaps he has been visiting down here or maybe he has even read a few books or newspaper columns from 'the despised' Mail columnist Peter Hitchens.

As Hitchens is the almost sole UK examplar of a sane voice within the journalist community - I feel I should take the opportunity of bigging-up Hitchens. Especially as  his books over the last 25 years have been  dutifully documenting the decline of this country. And where from 2010 Hitchens has even been telling conservative voters to simply not vote so that 'their' so-called conservative party is eviscerated electorally. Today he says he merely writes/chronicles Britain's obituary! And his advise to young people is to emigrate.

Imo it's worth reading Hitchens Mail on Sunday column for his well informed views across the spectrum, including social problems and international geo-politics. It's not just a generic rant as Hitchens frequently dares to prescribe his readers possible but usually unpalatable solutions. It's behind a paywall but that can be circumvented using the standard tools. Refreshingly his main themes are always focused on sovereignty, practical economic policies and personal freedom/responsibility, and usually attacks political distractions such as pointless foreign war escapades. 

Anyway below article is a good recent example of his nuanced views. Plus It interestingly includes a description of powerfully-built short stocky miners in the 1970s, a topic @DurhamBorn has occasionally written about...  so perhaps Hitchens also visits us down here(!?), though as an industrial reporter back then I think he picked up such knowledge first hand.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/the-fall-of-ted-heath-reconsidered/

 

 

Edited February 15 by JMD

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Being a bottom feeder it's more of look to buy it buy signal.

aye, you still didn't tell me about that bottom u was buying chief?

[darkmarket]

8 minutes ago, JMD said:

maybe he has even read a few books or newspaper columns from 'the despised' Mail columnist Peter Hitchens.

It reminded me of Hitchens too.

There is something of the demoralisation agent about him, I enjoy seeing Sargon of Akkad push back against his despair at times.

With Hitchens though, there's a more coherent narrative where the Trotskyites have led the nation to its present state of affairs. With Heath there, it's as though the liberal world order project wasn't inherently flawed, Cool Britannia wasn't hollow propaganda and somehow, inexplicably, things have suddenly turned sour.

No mention either of the fact that the world is on the precipice of global conflict with one side expected to die for tranny rights and open borders and dysgenic demographics, and that just like communism, the perverse and suicidal ideology has its roots here in the UK.

Anyway, pleased to see not even recession being acknowledged is enough to move 10y gilts below 4%. Imagine the GDP number stripped of state spending propping up the labour market with fake jobs for disabled brown women.

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Pip321 said:

Blackrock Gold

why u buying that rather than a gold ETF? i know the fukkers 'rule the world' so it might not be a bad thing.......just errr yeah Blackrock so you're actually bidding against your freedom for starters comrade

PS yeah I understand, can't beat em join em......interesting life eh?

edit: show me a Gold chart of that Blackcock shit if don't mind why? cos i don't follow your 4% drop.......I called the bottom at circa 1991 (recall I said Higher Low?) 2 days ago and now it's up to 1998..

yes it dipped lower, this is where it gets tricky with a 'tight stopless' blah blah blah

I'm not saying I'm Soros but errrr if you're watching Mr Blackrock, gis a fekkin job u cunts!!

Edited February 15 by nirvana

[Lightscribe]

3 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

Following up @sancho panza's post citing the Telegraph article regarding the UK going down the pan, our local council is leading the way it seems. When they can be bothered to to go into work, they are sat in their fancy new office block whilst they they fail to carry out basic services like collecting the bins.

Our recycling collection has been a little erratic and now the garden waste bin collections appear to have stopped. One of our neighbours contacted the council and was told "unfortunately the brown bin collections have been suspended and at the moment we don't know when they are starting back as we are continuing to experience issues with our kerbside collection driver availability"

I mean, this is just a bloke sat at on his backside driving a lorry up and down streets. Not exactly rocket science.

And, don't talk to me about the planning department.......

As above 

I haven’t got any, but looks cheap at the mo.

Edited February 15 by Lightscribe

[JMD]

4 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

He doesn't seem to realise that what he calls intolerance and racism were a key part of what made the country great. 

I agree, and so for example i learnt that knowledge from my parents.   ...However I prefer the more sensible terms: discrimination (ie 'differentiate differences' according to dictionary) and culturalism. 

Edited February 15 by JMD

[nirvana]

markets frisky......bad retail numbers out of US.....

[Pip321]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

why u buying that rather than a gold ETF? i know the fukkers 'rule the world' so it might not be a bad thing.......just errr yeah Blackrock so you're actually bidding against your freedom for starters comrade

PS yeah I understand, can't beat em join em......interesting life eh?

edit: show me a Gold chart of that Blackcock shit if don't mind why? cos i don't follow your 4% drop.......I called the bottom at circa 1991 (recall I said Higher Low?) 2 days ago and now it's up to 1998..

yes it dipped lower, this is where it gets tricky with a 'tight stopless' blah blah blah

I'm not saying I'm Soros but errrr if you're watching Mr Blackrock, gis a fekkin job u cunts!!

It’s a long boring story about my Pru Pension and whilst I should move to Hargreaves the cash fund and PruFund inertia makes me stay.

So Blackrock is the ONLY gold exposure I have….appreciate that is the tail wagging the dog. But when the world collapses and I start investing more aggressively I will move.

The 4% drop was due to the drop earlier this week. Newmont, EVD, etc. The fund went from 1140p to 1079p last night  

In short, basically you are right.😆

https://www.blackrock.com/uk/individual/products/229500/blackrock-gold-general-fund-class-d-acc-fund

https://markets.ft.com/data/funds/tearsheet/historical?s=GB00B5ZNJ896:GBP

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, nirvana said:

why u buying that rather than a gold ETF? i know the fukkers 'rule the world' so it might not be a bad thing.......just errr yeah Blackrock so you're actually bidding against your freedom for starters comrade

PS yeah I understand, can't beat em join em......interesting life eh?

edit: show me a Gold chart of that Blackcock shit if don't mind why? cos i don't follow your 4% drop.......I called the bottom at circa 1991 (recall I said Higher Low?) 2 days ago and now it's up to 1998..

yes it dipped lower, this is where it gets tricky with a 'tight stopless' blah blah blah

I'm not saying I'm Soros but errrr if you're watching Mr Blackrock, gis a fekkin job u cunts!!

It invests in miners not the metal.