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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 8)


spunko

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jamtomorrow
1 hour ago, Onsamui said:

Surely silver/gold should run, particularly silver coinage?

Gold ETFs are supposedly bleeding according to the hype, but hard to say whether that's significant here without knowing what a historically typical gold ETF flow rate is. Article quotes absolute numbers, whereas I'd like to know how unusual these flows are.

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-top-1-trillion-gold-etfs-dumped-favor-crypto

2024-02-14_06-21-50.jpg.09d97f25c9125b2b20ce970c936eaee2.jpg

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Spoke to my IFA yesterday (I know, I know) but his anecdotal was interesting. 

Firstly my question about funds was right…..there is often a delay with prices coming through and in many ways that’s why they delay purchases for 24/48 hours. Ie if both the execution and the price offered are delayed they compensate each other slightly. So effectively whilst it’s like buying in slow motion it does mitigate (slightly) the delay. Ie market dips, I buy and by the time it’s executed the dip also hits the fund (hopefully 🤦🏻‍♂️

Anyhoo…

The anecdotal is many clients are beginning to ask about moving from cash and even some are now starting to move from cash…..expectations that inflation is softening and interest rates will fall over the next 12 months so starting to look for better returns. Very generic investments though. Melt up? 

What I found particularly interesting is the narrative, the timeline, the mindset if you like. I worry about fiat, getting into gold, end of empire stuff when picking investments…..but many just invest ‘now’ and review periodically. Bonds caught many out but maybe not the ones who kept reviewing things and reacting in a timely manner.  Even the PruFund Growth moved more away from Bonds before the crunch. 

So they might be very wrong, have no idea about the big picture but I guess if they keep on top of what’s going on and react they may do fine. ie just following the market and bailing when it starts to wobble. What they won’t have is EM or PM exposure….none. 

Whether they react when the big alarms start going off….is another matter. That what this thread does, it’s adds the knowledge of what is happening from a wider perspective and many normies don’t believe a collapse could happen.

But it’s interesting many can do ok even in wobbly times but from a differing perspective. The BK will be the determination though, that’s when they get crushed. 

Edited by Pip321
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As expected, Centrica PLC (LSE:CNA)’s earnings were hit by lower commodity prices in 2023, with the British Gas owner’s adjusted operating profit falling 17% year on year to £2.75 billion.

This adjusted result excludes the disposed Spirit Energy Norway assets in 2023, and the impact of unrealised hedging losses in 2022.

Retail profit rose to £800 million, driven by a return to profitability in British Gas Services & Solutions and cost recoveries in British Gas Energy.

However, profits from Optimisation and Infrastructure activities were affected by lower commodity prices and volatility, as well as the introduction of the Electricity Generator Levy in Nuclear operations.

Free cash flow stood at £2.2 billion, slightly down from £2.5 billion in the previous year, and the company ended the year with a robust balance sheet and adjusted net cash of £2.7 billion, up from £1.2 billion in 2022.

Chief executive Chris O’Shea commented: “We are pleased to report that this strong underlying operational performance has continued into early 2024. As you would expect, sharply lower commodity prices and reduced volatility will naturally lower earnings in comparison to 2023 as we return to a more normalised environment.

“Our performance over the past year has reinforced our confidence in delivering against our medium-term sustainable profit ambitions and continuing to create value for shareholders.”

O’Shea touted Centrica’s voluntary customer support policies: “At the start of the energy crisis we committed to contribute a material sum from British Gas Energy and Bord Gáis Energy profits to support our customers.

Whilst we are starting to see material commodity price falls, today we have committed another £40 million, bringing the total voluntary customer support to £140 million, more than any other supplier.”

Shares opened 0.3% higher at 134.76p

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ThoughtCriminal
10 hours ago, honkydonkey said:

X axis? Would that highlight they're comparing 1.5 months with almost 3 months. Fuck all correlation. 

You're spoiling the bit! 🙄😂

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Democorruptcy
44 minutes ago, Pip321 said:

Spoke to my IFA yesterday (I know, I know) but his anecdotal was interesting. 

Firstly my question about funds was right…..there is often a delay with prices coming through and in many ways that’s why they delay purchases for 24/48 hours. Ie if both the execution and the price offered are delayed they compensate each other slightly. So effectively whilst it’s like buying in slow motion it does mitigate (slightly) the delay. Ie market dips, I buy and by the time it’s executed the dip also hits the fund (hopefully 🤦🏻‍♂️

Anyhoo…

The anecdotal is many clients are beginning to ask about moving from cash and even some are now starting to move from cash…..expectations that inflation is softening and interest rates will fall over the next 12 months so starting to look for better returns. Very generic investments though. Melt up? 

What I found particularly interesting is the narrative, the timeline, the mindset if you like. I worry about fiat, getting into gold, end of empire stuff when picking investments…..but many just invest ‘now’ and review periodically. Bonds caught many out but maybe not the ones who kept reviewing things and reacting in a timely manner.  Even the PruFund Growth moved more away from Bonds before the crunch. 

So they might be very wrong, have no idea about the big picture but I guess if they keep on top of what’s going on and react they may do fine. ie just following the market and bailing when it starts to wobble. What they won’t have is EM or PM exposure….none. 

Whether they react when the big alarms start going off….is another matter. That what this thread does, it’s adds the knowledge of what is happening from a wider perspective and many normies don’t believe a collapse could happen.

But it’s interesting many can do ok even in wobbly times but from a differing perspective. The BK will be the determination though, that’s when they get crushed. 

An IFA who didn't tell you people were putting cash into investments now, would be like an estate agent telling you not buy a property because prices are falling.

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NogintheNog
11 hours ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Ok, I'm calling it: it's time to sell everything 😂

Screenshot_20240214-205914~2.png

Greetings from NZ. At some point in the future I'm sure we'll get a 1929 rerun, could start next week, might not happen for decades. But as I've stated in the past comparisons are meaningless as we were on a Gold standard in 1929 but not now. I think that we have a way to go yet in the ability of central banks to keep the plates spinning, sadly! Currency debasement keeps the rich in the money while it hollows out the middle class, and Andrew Bailey and his cohorts know exactly what they are doing.

I've held some of the pm miners, streamers and gold for years, about 10% of my wealth. It's been a good insurance against the likes of Bailey and his ilk. But as DB says, not for Widows and orphans!

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28 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

An IFA who didn't tell you people were putting cash into investments now, would be like an estate agent telling you not buy a property because prices are falling.

Good point…I agree. He gets paid whether I am in cash or equities….but I take your point completely, his narrative will always be bias.

I will get rid of the IFA soon but it’s helpful if/when I transfer pension to keep him for a little longer because it’s free if he’s onboard (and some pensions need IFA to effect transfer…what a scam).

As an aside…I know another IFA as a friend as he is a real Dosbods type…ie Russia, Gold, shit show, bennies, vaccine, politics is wank etc. He admits that doesn’t align with his job but 99% is product, tax, cash management type advice which is fine…IFAs are careful not to recommend ‘specialist funds’ as such. Its always ‘a generic balance’ and matching the customers narrative around risk and the customers view of world. A generic fund that plummets is easier to defend 😉

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3 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

He doesn't seem to realise that what he calls intolerance and racism were a key part of what made the country great. 

Heath is a GDP-brained slaphead. Every part of his belief system has contributed to this mess.

His dream is simply to build a better ant colony, his solutions involve digging the hole even deeper. Fuck him.

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Lightscribe
10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

ALlistair Heath goes full basement dweller,MSM been nipping down ehre in theur tea breaks?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/14/for-the-first-time-im-beginning-to-think-britain-is-finishe/

For the first time in my life, I’m now beginning to think Britain is finished

The country’s self-image as tolerant, decent and hard-working is being smashed. It’s only going to get worse

Britain’s decline over the past 25 years has been staggeringly rapid. Almost everything is getting worse, and almost nothing is getting better. Our public and private institutions are broken, presided over by an incompetent, selfish and narcissistic ruling class. Living standards, when adjusted properly for living and property costs, are declining. 

Even the simplest things don’t work any longer. Queuing, scarcity and congestion are rife, our infrastructure is embarrassingly poor, and the honest and hardworking face endless bureaucratic battles to obtain what they are due. Free riding, crime, disorder, fraud, littering and generalised rule-bending are rife, and all too often tolerated by apathetic citizens and an indifferent state. Britain’s residual virtues, our individualism, independence of mind, tolerance and openness, uniquely appealing features of our national character, are fading. 

Like a frog in boiling water, few saw the full scale of the decline coming until it was too late, and those who did were ridiculed by the bien-pensant. Yet even in 2024, when millions now realise that Britain is on the wrong track, there is no hope of meaningful improvement. The Tories have been abysmal, but Labour will be even worse: Keir Starmer will double down on the social-democratic and culturally nihilistic policies tested to destruction by the Conservatives.

 
 

In the 2000s, Britain had a particular idea of itself: a country of post-Thatcherite property-owners which reconciled modernity and tradition, globalisation and national self-determination, low-tax dynamism and fairness, where you didn’t need IDs to vote, where MPs weren’t attacked by screaming mobs, and where, finally, racism was increasingly a thing of the past. We saw ourselves as a socially mobile, law-abiding land of high trust, low corruption, the rule of law, improving race relations and religious toleration: a uniquely open society and a model to the Western world. 

Such a vision is now largely obsolete. An Englishman’s home was his castle, making a huge difference to our national psyche, until our deliberate policy of rationing new housing at a time of mass immigration robbed the under-40s of the chance of owning anything of their own. “This is a free country”, we used to maintain when presented with another idiotic proposal to control us, but that too is over, killed off by the woke war on free speech, the jailing of Christian preachers, the sugar tax, the surveillance society and the Covid lockdowns. 

 
 

In narrow GDP growth terms, we continue to outperform the true laggards on the continent, as Brexiteers correctly predicted, but that should be no consolation. Our manufacturing sector is being priced out of global markets by the rush to net zero, our energy policy is a hideous farce, our misregulated City is in decline, and our tax system an absurd conspiracy against hard work and merit, with marginal tax rates back at 1970s levels for some

The socialist NHS, despite massive increases in funding, is a horror show, and one of the main reasons not to live in the UK. Some 5.6 million adults are on out-of-work benefits, and yet immigration is running at extraordinary levels. Our Armed Forces have been slashed, and are now being subject to a woke takeover

 

729683789.056965public.thumb.jpeg.764309654caa0735b6c4c044c48baa44.jpeg

Things like this don’t really help them quell  ‘conspiracy theorists’

 

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2 hours ago, Pip321 said:

there is often a delay with prices coming through and in many ways that’s why they delay purchases for 24/48 hours

what sort of market does that? I'd run a fekkin mile from it......they can manipulate the shite out of the price in that time...

no market should be that 'opaque'.....

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20 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

729683789.056965public.thumb.jpeg.764309654caa0735b6c4c044c48baa44.jpeg

Things like this don’t really help them quell  ‘conspiracy theorists’

 

This is a conspiracy I can get behind. It's obvious Jewish power has a subverting effect on the US, and by extension on the vassals states of the US.

I've grown tired of seeing articles like this since the Hamas attacks:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67266475

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-68298499

You would never see these sort of pieces in relation to the English, Scot, Irish or Welsh. We are compromised.

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11 minutes ago, marceau said:

Andreessen and netscape were responsible for navigator......which had over 90% of the browser market UNTIL...

the cunts at Microsoft then the cunts at Google took over the world....

I know we whinge about the 'looney lefties' on here but I just think they're 'useful idiots' for the cunts who are really in control......the corporates........headed by the cunts at BlackCock......be afraid, be very afraid :ph34r: (typ0 to protect the innocent o.O)

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1 minute ago, nirvana said:

Andreessen and netscape where responsible for navigator......which had over 90% of the browser market UNTIL...

the cunts at Microsoft then the cunts at Google took over the world....

I know we whinge about the 'looney lefties' on here but I just think they're 'useful idiots' for the cunts who are really in control......the corporates........headed by the cunts at Blackcock......be afraid, be very afraid :ph34r:

I like Andreessen, but he's sat in the middle of crazy-town, so I can't trust him. More substack - an interview he did with Niccolo Soldo a few years back:

https://niccolo.substack.com/p/the-dubrovnik-interviews-marc-andreessen

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