Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[HousePriceMania]

@JoeDavola, sound familiar ?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mailplus/article-13132025/Were-stuck-Britains-downsizing-gridlock-Older-homeowners-call-Stamp-Duty-cut.html?ico=mol_desktop_money

 

 

Edited February 28 by HousePriceMania

[spygirl]

On 26/02/2024 at 20:54, sancho panza said:

Again, Im notici g a massive slow down in To Lets -> Let.

The rental market is stuck.

As Ive said on BTL thread, the rental market is far far more flexible n dynamic than house sales.

Faced with higher rents the younger/poorer people either go into house shares, or fuck off somewhere cheaper.

At the syb 4% yield that idiot BTL have been buying, a 2 week void will wipe out a years 'profit'

Near me theres a rental thats been To Let and empty since November.

Round the corner theres an rental which went up for sale, and the family moved up (kids was in mrs spys class). That went Sold quickly.

However its back to For Sale.

 

 

 

 

[Boon]

The supply of actual flats available in London is more impressive.

October 2022 was 16k, today it's around 31.5k, so that's a near enough doubling of supply. It may have even been lower before that, but I wasn't writing down the stats.

The for sale market numbers are flat on the same period, ie roughly the same amount of houses for sale now vs then.

So its no surprise to me that overall the market is dipping. Last year a flat was very likely to get away with asking (and getting a mad kiteflying price), it's now fallen back but if I had to guess many are still 15-20% more than pre-pandemic.

I still think the market is such that if you are competitive on price, it will move quickly and definitely easier than selling.

To me I think BTR will end up dictating market rents. These are very opaquely priced but I have seen these falling as well but are better value than a private landlord.

[onlyme]

1 hour ago, spygirl said:

Again, Im notici g a massive slow down in To Lets -> Let.

The rental market is stuck.

As Ive said on BTL thread, the rental market is far far more flexible n dynamic than house sales.

Faced with higher rents the younger/poorer people either go into house shares, or fuck off somewhere cheaper.

At the syb 4% yield that idiot BTL have been buying, a 2 week void will wipe out a years 'profit'

Near me theres a rental thats been To Let and empty since November.

Round the corner theres an rental which went up for sale, and the family moved up (kids was in mrs spys class). That went Sold quickly.

However its back to For Sale.

 

With AST's for every renter that has one the question whether to stick or twist is asked every 6 or 12 months. House purchase used to be much more fluid with average of something like 7 moves in a lifetime, That numbner has collapsed.

Now interest rates are higher thos empty rentals are gong to have to churn much faster - either be let or sold unless the LL really isn't in it for the money.

[onlyme]

You would never guess from the MSM messaging.

 

[spygirl]

26 minutes ago, onlyme said:

With AST's for every renter that has one the question whether to stick or twist is asked every 6 or 12 months. House purchase used to be much more fluid with average of something like 7 moves in a lifetime, That numbner has collapsed.

Now interest rates are higher thos empty rentals are gong to have to churn much faster - either be let or sold unless the LL really isn't in it for the money.

Well, youre only stuck fo rthe 1st 6 months.

After that its 1 months notice.

 

[JoeDavola]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

@JoeDavola, sound familiar ?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mailplus/article-13132025/Were-stuck-Britains-downsizing-gridlock-Older-homeowners-call-Stamp-Duty-cut.html?ico=mol_desktop_money

32 year career….boomers eh.

Anyway yes the Bank of Boomer does indeed chase after the bungalows.

I don’t buy the whole ‘downsizing’ thing though I don’t see many boomers that actually want to downsize, economically anyway….my folks are looking at houses up to £70k more expensive than the one they’ve sold.

Edited February 28 by JoeDavola

[spunko]

Anecdote. Just viewed a brand new conversion of an old barn. Builders went bust last year and it's being sold by the receiver. It's 90% finished but the fittings are shit, and loads of corners have been cut. Really cheap feel to it, kitchen from Howdens budget range, patio looks like it was laid by an effnik, doors are cheap veneer and don't even close properly etc. Felt like they'd raided Barratt Homes suppliers list.

I told the EA I wasn't interested unless they were happy to accept an offer around a certain mark, which would be a -23% drop on the current asking price. Quick ballpark figures you'd need to spend another ~£30k getting it up to a decent standard.

I was expecting to be laughed at, but the EA said they may consider it i.e. they're desperate to offload.

 

[HousePriceMania]

46 minutes ago, spunko said:

Anecdote. Just viewed a brand new conversion of an old barn. Builders went bust last year and it's being sold by the receiver. It's 90% finished but the fittings are shit, and loads of corners have been cut. Really cheap feel to it, kitchen from Howdens budget range, patio looks like it was laid by an effnik, doors are cheap veneer and don't even close properly etc. Felt like they'd raided Barratt Homes suppliers list.

I told the EA I wasn't interested unless they were happy to accept an offer around a certain mark, which would be a -23% drop on the current asking price. Quick ballpark figures you'd need to spend another ~£30k getting it up to a decent standard.

I was expecting to be laughed at, but the EA said they may consider it i.e. they're desperate to offload.

 

Hi Spunko.

You're in Cornwall right ?

When I look on rightmove there are some massive drops happening there on the 2023 asking prices.

Interesting times.

[Chewing Grass]

11 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Hi Spunko.

You're in Cornwall right ?

When I look on rightmove there are some massive drops happening there on the 2023 asking prices.

Interesting times.

Frank is the one to ask.

[Plan-b]

26 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Hi Spunko.

You're in Cornwall right ?

When I look on rightmove there are some massive drops happening there on the 2023 asking prices.

Interesting times.

@HousePriceMania .. No mate, I think Spunko is in the South East 

[HousePriceMania]

2nd hand house salesmen are chancing their arms now, looking for mug punters.

[HousePriceMania]

Someone posted this one to me today

£1.15M over valued.  I mean, WTF !!!

[JoeDavola]

I phoned today about a house I’m interested in - it’s had some stuff done to it that if done well would be a great inflation hedge regardless of prices.

Of course there’s been 20 viewings in less than a week and earliest viewing I can get is next Wednesday.

To be fair I probably should have phoned Monday as soon as I saw the place. The decent stuff sells in days.

Edited February 28 by JoeDavola

[spunko]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Hi Spunko.

You're in Cornwall right ?

When I look on rightmove there are some massive drops happening there on the 2023 asking prices.

Interesting times.

No this was in E Sussex.

[Onsamui]

2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

Hi Spunko.

You're in Cornwall right ?

When I look on rightmove there are some massive drops happening there on the 2023 asking prices.

Interesting times.

I am in Cornwall, Newquay. There are a few reductions but many kite flyers.  If you look on houseprices.io you can see most sale prices as long as you have the post code, i.e., TR7 for Newquay.

 

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

I phoned today about a house I’m interested in - it’s had some stuff done to it that if done well would be a great inflation hedge regardless of prices.

Of course there’s been 20 viewings in less than a week and earliest viewing I can get is next Wednesday.

To be fair I probably should have phoned Monday as soon as I saw the place. The decent stuff sells in days.

20 viewers .... and not a single one has put an offer in ..... Hmmm..

[Plan-b]

This cheered me up! 

[JoeDavola]

39 minutes ago, spygirl said:

20 viewers .... and not a single one has put an offer in ..... Hmmm..

I phrased it badly - 20 viewers booked in - including those not viewed it yet. Only been on sale 3 days.

[onlyme]

5 hours ago, spunko said:

Anecdote. Just viewed a brand new conversion of an old barn. Builders went bust last year and it's being sold by the receiver. It's 90% finished but the fittings are shit, and loads of corners have been cut. Really cheap feel to it, kitchen from Howdens budget range, patio looks like it was laid by an effnik, doors are cheap veneer and don't even close properly etc. Felt like they'd raided Barratt Homes suppliers list.

I told the EA I wasn't interested unless they were happy to accept an offer around a certain mark, which would be a -23% drop on the current asking price. Quick ballpark figures you'd need to spend another ~£30k getting it up to a decent standard.

I was expecting to be laughed at, but the EA said they may consider it i.e. they're desperate to offload.

 

The receivers will accept whatever they can get/offered.

If they've cheapened out on everything on show have they done the same with any major works?

If the agent didn't squirm maybe  pitching too high.

 

[spunko]

21 minutes ago, onlyme said:

The receivers will accept whatever they can get/offered.

If they've cheapened out on everything on show have they done the same with any major works?

If the agent didn't squirm maybe  pitching too high.

 

Yeah thats what I thought. But I didnt want to buy it anyway as even if it was a high quality finish, the A2100 was far too loud for me.

[spunko]

38 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I phrased it badly - 20 viewers booked in - including those not viewed it yet. Only been on sale 3 days.

One of my neighbours has been trying to sell his small cottage for what I would say is quite a fair price compared to many other kite flyers round here. He has had 6 people do second viewings/saying they want to buy it but they cannot sell their own houses.

[JoeDavola]

2 minutes ago, spunko said:

One of my neighbours has been trying to sell his small cottage for what I would say is quite a fair price compared to many other kite flyers round here. He has had 6 people do second viewings/saying they want to buy it but they cannot sell their own houses.

As a cash buyer I’m in a good position but there’s lots of cash buyers in NI these days so I doubt I’m the only cash buyer bidding on this.

[Bobthebuilder]

7 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

As a cash buyer I’m in a good position but there’s lots of cash buyers in NI these days so I doubt I’m the only cash buyer bidding on this.

Make sure you take something with you showing the savings you have or a mortgage in principle to show the estate agent, it makes a big difference.

[onlyme]

6 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

As a cash buyer I’m in a good position but there’s lots of cash buyers in NI these days so I doubt I’m the only cash buyer bidding on this.

As a cash buyer you are in a fantastic position, don't squander it!  The cash buyers should dry up as they are satiated.

The percentage  / number of fall throughs in sales (widely reported by agents ) last year was a clear sign of a falling market - chains broken thanks to buyers deciding not to commit to a higher mortgage, lower surveyor valuation, lower than expected vinance available.