Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[spygirl]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

I've been reading this thread for years and the way you put it kinda now makes sense. Cheers. What also ties in for me now is that's the reason for the new people. Seems the bankwankers have a plan. Shoe in along with replacement on the back of the cuntries c/c. 

I'm now having a beer tonight. 

80%+ of the asylum seekers/migrants dont have a pot to piss in,.

They are a masiver drain on tax payers.

I am seeing a slow buy steady rise in the number of places with To Lets on them i nthe towns I monitor.

 

 

 

[Kendo]

99% mortgages coming. Sounds like a done deal. Good to at least see plenty of criticism and doubts about this idea in the FT article but still depressing to see the constant focus on demand-side policies and utter lack of good creative ideas. 
 

https://www.ft.com/content/ce643bfa-d4a9-4d85-b28c-6cc0fceba62f

Edited February 22 by Kendo

[onlyme]

1 hour ago, Kendo said:

99% mortgages coming. Sounds like a done deal. Good to at least see plenty of criticism and doubts about this idea in the FT article but still depressing to see the constant focus on demand-side policies and utter lack of good creative ideas. 
 

https://www.ft.com/content/ce643bfa-d4a9-4d85-b28c-6cc0fceba62f

On a selfish level probably good for me all round - reliable fallback work from housign market and where majority of equity  is by default thanks to beign forced to dedicated savings to housing rather than business.

Total fuckwitery though. Liars and scammers with no policies that a country needs to thrive.

[Axeman123]

3 hours ago, Kendo said:

99% mortgages coming.

If deposits were the biggest stumbling block they might make a difference. Affordability and loan to income ratios are what knacker the sums for most potential buyers. Maybe Tarquin etc on six figures will avoid a couple of years in rented to save a deposit before buying the type of property they would have been able to afford anyway.

My view is this will be a spoiler set to begin after the election to salt the earth for labour, giving them the choice to be:

• Saddled with the spending
• Lose votes by speaking out against it now
• U-turn once they get in, potentially seeding a "stab in the back" narrative among some voters (a bit like the LDs and tuition fees). 

That last option would potentially be especially nasty if real house price falls aren't widely acknowleded before the election, putting public blame for the crash squarely on Labour. It would likely gaurantee a one term govt, which every political faction and party seems to be using as its base assumption for strategy.

We are essentially in both a Tory leadership contest and an undeclared GE campaign right now IMO.

[No One]

1% down mortgages ... great. Another dangerous prop. These idiots have learnt nothing form 2008, or maybe they have but they dont care as long as they remain in power.

[darkmarket]

One day after the share price was hammered down almost 10%. UK mortgage holders and savers to cover HSBC's billions in losses on investing in communist China.

https://x.com/moving_charlie/status/1760694005455593864

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, darkmarket said:

One day after the share price was hammered down almost 10%. UK mortgage holders and savers to cover HSBC's billions in losses on investing in communist China.

https://x.com/moving_charlie/status/1760694005455593864

Not so simple.

HSBC UK + HSBC China are different entities.
However ... HSBC did sell *LOTS* of bonds to Chinkys from ~2014ish.

Chinese basically having limited means to invest their illgotten gains that wont see them executed.

So, HSBC was stuffed full fo funds, which they could transfer /invest in UK mortgages.

This resulted in HSBC being the cheapest - by a large percentage - fixed mortgage products.

You could also get longish terms - 10y.

All thanks to Mrs Woo.

I got a stupid low 10y mortgage, with 5y for sub 1.7% ~9ish years ago.

The terms were nits too - I could pay as much off as I like, as long as the mortgagee still owed at least £1 at the end of the fix.. No limits to 10% or anything.

Massive , huge, flood of cheap capital, to lend into the UK.

Only hurdle was you had to get past HSBC lending hurdle - no scratter,s povvos, scum need apply.

HSBC are v sniffy about wholl theyll lend to.

Anyhow, all the cheap Chinky capital has gone.

 

 

[spygirl]

HSBC raises mortgage rates, leaving no sub-4% deals left in ‘hammer blow’

There has been a change in expectations of what will happen to interest rates, which has a knock on effect on mortgage deals

[darkmarket]

2 minutes ago, spygirl said:

HSBC UK + HSBC China are different entities.

Of course, as a foreign bank one doesn't simply roll up and do business in China. But the London share price crashed based on the Shanghai affiliate's reckless gambling because it's all HSBC Group.

And of course the move can be justified by pointing to SONIA. Nevertheless, this is one of the same bank cartel that just staged a fake price war and offered rates well below SONIA, keeping up the facade until one day after yesterday's crash.

It also recalls Quinn's expression of the bank's commitment to operating under the CCP only to immediately pull out of the Russian market when Russian troops entered those areas of Ukraine under bombardment by Kiev. Those are controversial economic and political decisions, and since the cheap mortgages paid for by Chinese serfs losses won't be around in future, it's up to British FTBs to eat the bubble prices they created.

[Ash4781b]

43 minutes ago, spygirl said:

HSBC raises mortgage rates, leaving no sub-4% deals left in ‘hammer blow’

There has been a change in expectations of what will happen to interest rates, which has a knock on effect on mortgage deals

What’s the change I thought the narrative was interest rate cuts were coming soon?

[JoeDavola]

Cringed when I saw the 99% mortgage - house prices must be propped up regardless eh.

If they want young people to have a chance of mortgage slavery until they die home ownership at todays's prices/IR's they'll probably have to normalize 50 year mortgages next; which wouldn't surprise me at all.

I did think how Stuey would be creaming his pants at this news and right enough:

https://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/profile/30564-stewy/

[AWW]

5 hours ago, Axeman123 said:

That last option would potentially be especially nasty if real house price falls aren't widely acknowleded before the election, putting public blame for the crash squarely on Labour.

I wish I could find the link now but there was done recent polling that more people want prices to fall than to rise.

The Tories need them to fall too because renters don't generally vote Tory, but they haven't realised this because they are fucking clueless.

[Axeman123]

2 hours ago, AWW said:

I wish I could find the link now but there was done recent polling that more people want prices to fall than to rise.

First sad face "worked hard all my life, and £50k of equity vaporised" stories would put an end to that IMO. For prices to be reasonable many sympathetic people have to bear the consequences of their poor decisions, and it is going to be gut wrenching to watch.

Bring it on I say, but just like that bit in "The big short"....

Edited February 22 by Axeman123
embed

[sancho panza]

lloyds record profits on rising net itnerest margin,as to be exepected .Having had a quick look through natwest results,stage 2s dropped but there's something of a linering semll of necrotic flesh abou ti.

I regard lloyds as the safest UK bank.Well have a flick though the results when i get time next week

looks like the bill for mis selling car fiance could get bigly.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/lloyds-profits-higher-interest-rates-074150382.html

Lloyds Bank posts record profit amid higher interest rates

Lloyds Banking Group reported a 57% jump in annual profit for 2023 as it generated more income from higher interest rates that continue to squeeze most UK households.

The lender reported a pre-tax profit of £7.5bn ($9.5bn ) over 2023, surging by 57% compared with the £4.8bn made in 2022.

The group – which includes Halifax, Bank of Scotland and Scottish Widows – announced a final dividend of 1.84 pence and a share buyback of £2bn. Lloyds net interest margin – the difference between what it charges for loans and pays out on savings – rose 17 basis points to 3.11%.

Charges for debts not being repaid by customers fell sharply to £308m. Customer deposits fell by £3.9bn to £471.4bn.

The bank said it set aside a remediation charge of £450m to cover potential costs related to the financial regulator’s review into historic car finance selling practices.

That suggests the bill across the whole banking sector could run into billions of pounds. Lloyds owns Black Horse, one of the biggest lenders in the car finance market.

[sancho panza]

you dont see an honest EA much but theyve got it badly worng

they could have sold that for < £500k  in 2022

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/142102955#/?channel=RES_BUY

Description

A beautifully presented, detached four bedroom family home located on a quiet cul-de-sac in this popular east Leicestershire village.

*Under the provisions of the Estate Agent's Act 1979 we are required to disclose a personal interest in the sale of this property.

Edited February 22 by sancho panza

[roundhouse]

5 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Cringed when I saw the 99% mortgage - house prices must be propped up regardless eh.

If they want young people to have a chance of mortgage slavery until they die home ownership at todays's prices/IR's they'll probably have to normalize 50 year mortgages next; which wouldn't surprise me at all.

 

Yes cringe was my first reaction too. But listened* to Moving Home with Charlie podcast on this topic and two semi-related points they made seemed reasonable enough for me to retract and wait for details. (1) For some renters it may make the difference for them to be able to buy, as mortgage cost [likely] will be much less than rent, and high rents prohibiting saving a 5% deposit; and  (2) if it's for a limited term only it may enable them to build up a 5% equity, the equivalent of having a 5% deposit. *caveat: distracted listening.

Charlie and his buddie did discuss many other angles too, inc the negative and potential outcomes. 

Btw, appreciate people here making me aware of his podcasts and Best Agent stuff. It's a bit repetitive and sometimes long-winded but some very valuable takeaways.

 

[tank]

4 hours ago, AWW said:

I wish I could find the link now but there was done recent polling that more people want prices to fall than to rise.

The Tories need them to fall too because renters don't generally vote Tory, but they haven't realised this because they are fucking clueless.

The Tory Party has always existed to conserve the wealth of landowners.

Lower property prices is the last thing they want or need.

Renters generally don't vote.

Edited February 23 by tank

[JoeDavola]

5 hours ago, tank said:

The Tory Party has always existed to conserve the wealth of landowners.

Lower property prices is the last thing they want

I think that’s true of the entire political class these days.

[Wight Flight]

8 hours ago, roundhouse said:

as mortgage cost [likely] will be much less than rent,

Very unlikely.

 

[JoeDavola]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

I think that’s true of the entire political class these days.

Oh and I'll add, the vast majority of the UK who own a house, even if that damages their ability to move up the ladder.

Seriously; I've heard it from my brother even though he wants to move away to a less scummy area than he's in - part of the low-IQ UK culture is feeling good that your house is going up in value. Perhaps it makes it somehow feel 'worth it' even though you'll likely never see that money.

[apples]

22 hours ago, Kendo said:

99% mortgages coming. Sounds like a done deal. Good to at least see plenty of criticism and doubts about this idea in the FT article but still depressing to see the constant focus on demand-side policies and utter lack of good creative ideas. 
 

https://www.ft.com/content/ce643bfa-d4a9-4d85-b28c-6cc0fceba62f

The Telegraph had these headlines side by side last night:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/22/first-time-buyers-99pc-mortgages-backed-by-taxpayers/

Taxpayers to back 99pc mortgages for first-time buyers

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/21/taxpayers-foot-redundancy-bill-body-shop-staff/

Taxpayers to foot redundancy bill for Body Shop staff

99% mortgages must be good, because we're "backing", not "footing" them (neither by choice, mind)

[marceau]

1 hour ago, apples said:

The Telegraph had these headlines side by side last night:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/22/first-time-buyers-99pc-mortgages-backed-by-taxpayers/

Taxpayers to back 99pc mortgages for first-time buyers

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/21/taxpayers-foot-redundancy-bill-body-shop-staff/

Taxpayers to foot redundancy bill for Body Shop staff

99% mortgages must be good, because we're "backing", not "footing" them (neither by choice, mind)

And then, inexplicably:

'Taxpayers getting it up the ass with tax and inflation.'

[sleepwello'nights]

On 20/02/2024 at 14:16, spygirl said:

Having an idiot EA valuing stuff higher is mental. Its really is a waste of time n eioffr and will get the local EA a bad rep.

 

Just listening to this now. I have to take exception to the comment made about the recent Trump case where Trump was judged to  be guilty of overvaluing his New York real estate. 

The comment was made that Trump had lost his business because he lost the case. The facts are rather different to the presenters summary. I tend to agree with most of his opinion but he is very wrong with that summary of the Trump judgement.

[Guest]

12 hours ago, sancho panza said:

you dont see an honest EA much but theyve got it badly worng

they could have sold that for < £500k  in 2022

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/142102955#/?channel=RES_BUY

Description

A beautifully presented, detached four bedroom family home located on a quiet cul-de-sac in this popular east Leicestershire village.

*Under the provisions of the Estate Agent's Act 1979 we are required to disclose a personal interest in the sale of this property.

Estate agent who can't even sell their own house, now that is some vintage Schadenfreude.

[Boon]

Good thing about those houses is that most of them on the street are identical layout, so quite comparable with prices. 
£475k still is basically peak price for the road, one in similar condition sold for £470k in 2021.

Looks more like an inherited house, so could imagine them being refusing to entertain offers and not caring too much, I mean, it's still OIEO and almost 1.5 years.

Don't know the area but surely out of reach of 90%+ of locals on salary alone.