Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[nirvana]

i'm sort of interested and I'm sort of trying not to be lol cos I'm afraid I might buy something as a 'crashpad house'....what da fuk is that u looney???

BUT FYI a 2 bed newish build circa 2010 I think, sold at auction yesterday for £62.5k......sold in April 2019 for £78.5k then again in April 2022 as some sort of 'mass purchase' so you can't see the individual price just 750 grand.....

it's some sort of REIT that's selling it's stock....dunno if it's a forced sale or what.....

yeah it's cheap, north-east innit.......but the info is there, take from it what you will.....just trying to help the massive

PS it wasn't a bad looking location, near Durham, garage and a decent looking garden......great for a young family......or an aging nutter......wot u saying bruv?

Edited February 15 by nirvana

[HousePriceMania]

22 minutes ago, nirvana said:

i'm sort of interested and I'm sort of trying not to be lol cos I'm afraid I might buy something as a 'crashpad house'....what da fuk is that u looney???

BUT FYI a 2 bed newish build circa 2010 I think, sold at auction yesterday for £62.5k......sold in April 2019 for £78.5k then again in April 2022 as some sort of 'mass purchase' so you can't see the individual price just 750 grand.....

it's some sort of REIT that's selling it's stock....dunno if it's a forced sale or what.....

yeah it's cheap, north-east innit.......but the info is there, take from it what you will.....just trying to help the massive

PS it wasn't a bad looking location, near Durham, garage and a decent looking garden......great for a young family......or an aging nutter......wot u saying bruv?

Have you got a link please ?

Someone who follows me twitter is looking to buy somewhere like that and the agents, at every turn, fuck him around when he tries offering on something.

Have someone else on twitter who's been offering on properties, 2nd hand house salesmen laughs at them, then they have seen 3 places sell at auction for less than they've offered.  Stinks to high heaven that does, I've said to them to go to the police and make sure everything is in writing.

Edited February 15 by HousePriceMania

[CVG]

25 minutes ago, nirvana said:

iPS it wasn't a bad looking location, near Durham, garage and a decent looking garden......great for a young family......or an aging nutter......wot u saying bruv?

Isn't there a different thread where you can ask the local expert? 

[nirvana]

6 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Have you got a link please ?

allsops auctions.....I'm mentioned em before

[Democorruptcy]

Just noticed the RM default mortgage rate had been cut again from 5.51% to 5.3%. The news lately is more about mortgage rates going back up? Somebody ask them to put it back higher... cheers.

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, CVG said:

Isn't there a different thread where you can ask the local expert? 

i grew up in County Durham......but ran away at 18 lol

[JoeDavola]

2 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

 I dont live in Belfast, I have nothing to cope with and deny, prices round here are falling and I personally know 2 couples who can't sell their house and have had zero viewings in 6+ months.

"I’m hearing from plenty of people trying to modest family homes and prices are not dropping." 

How are you hearing this ?  Are you going around asking people ? Is in through your job ?

You've been ranting on here for months and months about prices going up, so much so people start thinking you a re a troll ( there words not mine ) then I post a good news story from the BBC and you have a dig at me.

I don't think you are a troll by the way bit I am starting to think you're sounding a bit lost, possible you have mental health issues.  Go and buy a house and put yourself out of this misery, prices will clearly just keep going up one way our another.  You can't lose on northern Ireland property.

P.S. with all due respect.

I'm hearing this from the prices I see things listed at and selling, the last 3 years and counting of my folks trying to buy a house etc. Also some of the young folk in my work who are trying to buy their first house and being outbid.

This is why I don't put any stock in stories like the one you posted to tell me what's happening in a market that I am observing directly. It's irrelevant unless you're desperately trying to believe the tide has turned and I dont need to lie to myself. There's enough people with enough money out there it seems to buy most of the houses coming up that are desirable and nobody seems to want to drop prices on the ones that do sit on the market a while.

It's a barely functional market at the moment, and there's lower transaction volumes and I suspect most houses are BOMAD or Bank of Boomer part or all-funded rather than just wages + mortgage. Can it just stagger along like this for another 5 years, another 10? I don't know. I think something might happen when the boomer wealth has all gone with their passing but that could take another 20 years. Could also be that the recession and job losses haven't kicked in yet either, I mentioned recently that I thought the Bank of Boomer and Bank of Bennies were keeping many industries afloat. All very complicated.

I see in a later post you say that you can now buy 50% more house where you are now vs in 2022. Thats brilliant and I'm honeslty very happy for you. Certainly not happening here though - the average family home at 5.25% interest rates costs the same or more than it did when interest rates were 0.1% 2 years previous.

I do think BTL is going away for new entrants, and I have seen a few small houses recently come on that look like someone has been renovating them to either BTL or flip, and then just given up i.e. run out of money.

If it pissed people off for me to say something other than "prices are crashing" on this topic then I'll stop but that must mean we need a second topic to discuss the actual market rather than cherry picked examples of areas/houses that have dropped in price in a big way.

Edited February 15 by JoeDavola

[Bobthebuilder]

26 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I have seen a few small houses recently come on that look like someone has been renovating them to either BTL or flip, and then just given up i.e. run out of money.

That is the earliest signal you can get, I was seeing places like that a year ago in my search area.

[GTM]

41 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

It's a barely functional market at the moment, and there's lower transaction volumes

Far too much of the UK housing stock is utter crap that anybody in their right mind would avoid like the plague. I think that what is happening is that nobody will be interested in a lot of the crap on the market unless it is very cheap, which it isn't. Meanwhile bidding wars are springing up around those places which are a good size, on decent plots and in decent areas.

[Plan-b]

3 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

We withdraw an offer on a house last year for a few reasons, probate sale

Lucky escape, had you proceeded it's likely you'd be still waiting for a conclusion through this year too.

Avoid probates like the plague, what with incompetent government departments and greedy squabbling families you did yourself a huge favour.

Since the late 90's the whole property game has gone way beyond insanity I've seen unbelievable things. I fully expect this period of time and property to have its own chapter in the 2030's reprint of this book. Along with the South sea, Tulip Bulbs and other famous bubbles. Humans are stupid mentally deranged herd cattle zombies.

 

Edited February 15 by Plan-b

[spygirl]

From TOS site.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-for-december-2023/uk-house-price-index-summary-december-2023

4.1 Sales volumes

Number of sales volumes by country

Comparing the provisional volume estimate for the current month with the revised volume estimate for the corresponding month in the previous year

Country	October 2023	October 2022
England	37,026	67,264
Northern Ireland	1,773	2,242
Scotland	7,722	9,184
Wales	2,119	3,921

Note: Comparing the provisional volume estimate for the

[AlfredTheLittle]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

From TOS site.

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-house-price-index-for-december-2023/uk-house-price-index-summary-december-2023

4.1 Sales volumes

Number of sales volumes by country

Comparing the provisional volume estimate for the current month with the revised volume estimate for the corresponding month in the previous year

Country	October 2023	October 2022
England	37,026	67,264
Northern Ireland	1,773	2,242
Scotland	7,722	9,184
Wales	2,119	3,921

Note: Comparing the provisional volume estimate for the

Is October 23 still coming through or is that pretty much the final figures?

[spygirl]

3 minutes ago, AlfredTheLittle said:

Is October 23 still coming through or is that pretty much the final figures?

Pretty much final figure.

That repot had some time (and money) spent on it. Tey would not do thatfor half numbers.

 

 

[nirvana]

3 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

If it pissed people off for me to say something other than "prices are crashing" on this topic then I'll stop

no way bruv, you need to be honest! sock it to us........the only thing that strikes me and i used to say this with a rich property investor mate decades ago, is that the 'true market' is the auctions......the rest are gamblers playing with low IR large leverage loans.....mainly.....

the market's fake n gay bruv, like most things in life nowadays

[nirvana]

the results are in

https://www.allsop.co.uk/property-search?auction_id=45ed9d12-4bf0-11ee-9764-0242ac110002&size=100&view=table&page=1

if you wanna look at past prices use https://houseprices.io/

go on, give it a whirl and report the prices of anything remotely in your locality....it could well look like shite but come on, it's fekkin bricks n mortar.......get yer 'homes under the hammer' specs on

 

[spunko]

3 hours ago, GTM said:

Far too much of the UK housing stock is utter crap that anybody in their right mind would avoid like the plague. I think that what is happening is that nobody will be interested in a lot of the crap on the market unless it is very cheap, which it isn't. Meanwhile bidding wars are springing up around those places which are a good size, on decent plots and in decent areas.

Yes. Here's a tip, go on Rightmove and find properties that are 1.5x your budget ie. too expensive for you to afford. Then imagine that it has been reduced to your budget. You will easily find major faults with it, i.e. ton an A road, there's pikeys or a mosque nearby, or they're building slaveboxes in the field next door, etc. It's bloody depressing and wasn't like this even 5 years ago.

The stuff on the market now is 95% crap.

[Bobthebuilder]

10 minutes ago, nirvana said:

no way bruv, you need to be honest! sock it to us........the only thing that strikes me and i used to say this with a rich property investor mate decades ago, is that the 'true market' is the auctions......the rest are gamblers playing with low IR large leverage loans.....mainly.....

the market's fake n gay bruv, like most things in life nowadays

Agree.

I was going to comment on @JoeDavola post about unfinished renovations sitting on the market. If they offered good value and a potential re sale profit an estate agent or builder would be buying them off market. The fact that is not happening speaks volumes.

[nirvana]

@spunko seeing as you here, can you make this sub section 'non open' please?

I may be a cunt at times but i think in these scary times our privacy is more imprortant than ever and i just realised I'm posting 'semi personal' info in the open....

thanks bossman!! love you all

 

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, nirvana said:

@spunko seeing as you here, can you make this sub section 'non open' please?

I may be a cunt at times but i think in these scary times our privacy is more imprortant than ever and i just realised I'm posting 'semi personal' info in the open....

thanks bossman!! love you all

 

You should change ya name to Marvin.

[nirvana]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

You should change ya name to Marvin.

i know......and the answer is 42.......them were the days eh? when it was fun listening to the radio

[Axeman123]

17 hours ago, spunko said:

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/144680120#/?channel=RES_BUY

Omg u can keep ur poxy old flats wiv loads of character,  my house renovation is finally done n its just the way we wanted it dont be jell xxx 

The classic mistake of "we liked the design of our rental villa in Phuket/Marbella, so lets copy the look for our home in the UK".

Can you imagine a worse pairing of climate and design? How grey and cold will that place feel in winter?

[spygirl]

7 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The classic mistake of "we liked the design of our rental villa in Phuket/Marbella, so lets copy the look for our home in the UK".

Can you imagine a worse pairing of climate and design? How grey and cold will that place feel in winter?

Thas a design/layout/;lifestyle for a country about 10C hotter than the UK.

 

[spunko]

13 minutes ago, Axeman123 said:

The classic mistake of "we liked the design of our rental villa in Phuket/Marbella, so lets copy the look for our home in the UK".

Can you imagine a worse pairing of climate and design? How grey and cold will that place feel in winter?

At least with the end of cheap money these sorts of houses will be no more.

4 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Thas a design/layout/;lifestyle for a country about 10C hotter than the UK.

 

Nonsense. Who wouldn't want to relax by the pool and listen to the sound of the M2 traffic thundering past?

[Boon]

24 minutes ago, spunko said:

Yes. Here's a tip, go on Rightmove and find properties that are 1.5x your budget ie. too expensive for you to afford. Then imagine that it has been reduced to your budget. You will easily find major faults with it, i.e. ton an A road, there's pikeys or a mosque nearby, or they're building slaveboxes in the field next door, etc. It's bloody depressing and wasn't like this even 5 years ago.

The stuff on the market now is 95% crap.

Yeah similarly here is an exercise.

Take a southern commuter town, look for a small house that both a starter house and downsizer might like, ie 3-bed, semi detached.
Filter out the ones priced at kite-flying levels, ones that have layout problems, ones that require excessive renovations, ones that are probates, ones that are in not ideal locations.

For some towns it literally comes down to a single digit amount of properties.

If you want to buy a flat or a big boomer house I reckon a lot of these are some way off the peak price and could go down further. However if you want to buy something in the 'goldilocks' zone there is a lot of competition.

So here we can see contrasting viewpoints like some people seeing no weakness in the market, and other people seeing a lot of weakness.

Is it that difficult to not think that things are different across different types of properties and locations?

[onlyme]

41 minutes ago, nirvana said:

no way bruv, you need to be honest! sock it to us........the only thing that strikes me and i used to say this with a rich property investor mate decades ago, is that the 'true market' is the auctions......the rest are gamblers playing with low IR large leverage loans.....mainly.....

the market's fake n gay bruv, like most things in life nowadays

Auctions may have changed over the years and how representative the above is, for years they have been swarming with investors and BTL, may only really be measuring that market now. There is only a small subset of the public that would consider the auction and likley even those will have been put off by the experience.