Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[spygirl]

24 minutes ago, Wight Flight said:

And local LHA rates.

rents to rise 34% in Bristol this year.

don't go looking for an HPC there.

https://www.property118.com/housing-benefit-rates-increase-but-still-lag-behind-private-rent-rises/

Then the town with fill up with London scummers chasing the higher LHA.

And the council will go bust.

 

[One percent]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

Then the town with fill up with London scummers chasing the higher LHA.

And the council will go bust put up council tax massively to pay for it .

 

FIFY. 

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, One percent said:

Scummers in fancy dress.  

I do wonder if the intergalactic victoriana space pirate look is the new Kiss Me Quick hat......

[spygirl]

1 hour ago, One percent said:

FIFY. 

The best way to deal with high council debt and crisis is to let a couple go bust, sack everyone and koick 50% off existing council pensioners.

This is the only way out of the unfunded n now very expensive public sector pension promises.

[One percent]

3 hours ago, spygirl said:

We get that, every now and then.

Some week papers lifestyle wank piece.

Just as well papers are dying on their arse.

And youve got a moat.

Look what we get

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-62296620

 

 

I can confirm, after my jaunt through town that it’s rammed with people who look like they’ve come by Time Machine.  The abbey car park is rammed with scratters in campervans. 

[spygirl]

2 minutes ago, One percent said:

I can confirm, after my jaunt through town that it’s rammed with people who look like they’ve come by Time Machine.  The abbey car park is rammed with scratters in campervans. 

I hope you dressed up as a topless cyborg pirate

The perverts with cameras love wimmin with their tits hanging out.

[One percent]

9 minutes ago, spygirl said:

I hope you dressed up as a topless cyborg pirate

The perverts with cameras love wimmin with their tits hanging out.

I didn’t but I did have a walk up to abbey carpark and noted that it’s rammed with scratters in campervans.  I met a mate by accident so we both walked up there. Moaning like mad and some woman walking the other way said, well do something about it. We said, we do, we go to all the council meetings and moan.  A good discussion ensued about the scourge of tourists.  They really are universally hated by locals. The sad thing is that a lot of them will be ok people. It’s the scratters and scummers that spoil it for everyone.  

[Cosmic]

3 hours ago, One percent said:

It’s the scratters and scummers that spoil it for everyone.  

The same thing can be said about everything, everywhere. The problem is the more people there are, the more scratters and summers there are, meaning you can't avoid them even if you wanted to. 

[JoeDavola]

8 hours ago, spygirl said:

A market is - prices x transactions.

If you crash transaction then youll bring down prices.

Except transactions have crashed and prices haven't come down.

What's happened is a smaller percentage of the population than ever can play the game, i.e. its BOMAD funded in a big way, because prices bear little resemblence to wages, but it's certainly not dropped prices.

I forsee a crippled market for the forseeable yes, but that's also against an ever-shrinking pool of places where people want to live due to enrichment, shitty newbuilds, probates falling to pieces that nobody wants.

But that 1930's semi detached house with the nice garden near a decent school? That's only going up up up by the looks of it.

[JoeDavola]

8 hours ago, spygirl said:

Yes, probanly.

Noirland is differnt - in a bad way.

Theres so much money slushing around - Money to keep Team green away from team red.

EU money slushing around.

Then US Help the paddys money

Money from the South chasing properdee.

And itll all blow up, cos end of the day - houses dont make money!

The South has now got to earn its money rather than just skimming the low EU import duty.

The North has go to create productive employment rather than DLA for everyone.

And if SF get in North n South --- the whole lot will blow up economically.

We're in agreement there - most wealthy people I know in NI are wealthy because of the generosity of the british state or the americans outsourcing to the paddies, subsidised by the british state.

If all that falls away at some point NI is proper fucked, but I don't expect that to happen in my lifetime.

[eek]

5 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Except transactions have crashed and prices haven't come down.

What's happened is a smaller percentage of the population than ever can play the game, i.e. its BOMAD funded in a big way, because prices bear little resemblence to wages, but it's certainly not dropped prices.

I forsee a crippled market for the forseeable yes, but that's also against an ever-shrinking pool of places where people want to live due to enrichment, shitty newbuilds, probates falling to pieces that nobody wants.

But that 1930's semi detached house with the nice garden near a decent school? That's only going up up up by the looks of it.

Transactions have crashed because houses are being kept and rented out.

Which isn't surprising given that our population is rising by 2% a year while our housing stock increases by 0.2% a year...

 

I saw a post earlier today about New York rents - which isn't a perfect example (it's the US) but shows the problem.

Currently only 1.4% of property is empty and available to let.

For prices to remain static you need 8% of the stock to be available (because it takes a month or so to fill a property and 8% means 1-2 months of supply).

At 11% vacant rents start to fall..

Edited February 10 by eek

[spygirl]

12 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Except transactions have crashed and prices haven't come down.

What's happened is a smaller percentage of the population than ever can play the game, i.e. its BOMAD funded in a big way, because prices bear little resemblence to wages, but it's certainly not dropped prices.

I forsee a crippled market for the forseeable yes, but that's also against an ever-shrinking pool of places where people want to live due to enrichment, shitty newbuilds, probates falling to pieces that nobody wants.

But that 1930's semi detached house with the nice garden near a decent school? That's only going up up up by the looks of it.

They will.

Markets need to clear.

Most markets have a natural number of transactions.

For housing, this would be composed of the number of people  dying,. getting divorced, moving away etc etc.

Once you get to a medium to large town, youd be surprised at how consistent, with a bit of + and - over the cycle this number has been.

Then 2007 na all that.

Transaction levels crashed and remain o nthe floor.

This is not natural.

Its like the housing market has been constipated for 15y.

At some point a lot of shite will pour out.

 

 

13 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

We're in agreement there - most wealthy people I know in NI are wealthy because of the generosity of the british state or the americans outsourcing to the paddies, subsidised by the british state.

If all that falls away at some point NI is proper fucked, but I don't expect that to happen in my lifetime.

Unification appears to be rapidly coming - unless SF totally fuck up, North n South, which is looking likely.

 

[AWW]

On 09/02/2024 at 17:48, Ianb78 said:

No

It will crash but not yet as the 18 year cycle has not quite played out 

We are just about to enter a new surge which will be the “winners curse” phase culminating in a collapse around 2026

 

You don't think that ZIRP and the closing down of large parts of the economy may have impacted that cycle somewhat?

I do. The "winner's curse" (is that just another name for a bull trap?) happened during the Covid mentalism.

[Wight Flight]

13 hours ago, eek said:

Transactions have crashed because houses are being kept and rented out.

I am seeing the opposite.

 

13 hours ago, eek said:

For prices to remain static you need 8% of the stock to be available (because it takes a month or so to fill a property

Most here will have a new tenant installed within 48 hours.

 

[JoeDavola]

14 hours ago, spygirl said:

They will.

Markets need to clear.

Most markets have a natural number of transactions.

For housing, this would be composed of the number of people  dying,. getting divorced, moving away etc etc.

Once you get to a medium to large town, youd be surprised at how consistent, with a bit of + and - over the cycle this number has been.

Then 2007 na all that.

Transaction levels crashed and remain o nthe floor.

This is not natural.

Its like the housing market has been constipated for 15y.

At some point a lot of shite will pour out.

What you say makes logical sense, but I've just seen it fly in the face of logic too long.

I remember whe covid started I thought "thank fuck this will put a dampner on prices they're getting a bit high" - nope biggest house price boom in over a decade prices up 30%.

Then interest rates soar (relatively speaking, not historically).....this is BOUND to take the edge off prices nope not a penny, my parents have sold their house in a 5.25% IR environment for the same amount they sold it for a couple of years back when interest rates were close to 0%.

There are fewer houses going on and even fewer people wanting to take on signficant mortgage debts at these levels. But it doesn't feel to me like there's a big crash coming in NI soon. The other factor of course is age, if it takes another few years for some boomer money to run out and then another 5+ years after that for prices to bottom then I could be 50 and there's only so long a person can wait.

[reformed nice guy]

I still think a big part of the price being held up is the reverse pyramid structure of families.

Grandparents having 6 siblings, parents having 3 siblings, child having 1 sibling, grandchild is a single child.

The family inheritance slowly aggregating to a single person

[BoSon]

Government plan to remove need for planning permission to turn commercial properties into residential.

Housing crisis: Gove eyes quick shop conversions to create more homes

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68266325

 

Quote

 

Empty high street shops could be quickly converted to homes under an expected relaxation of planning laws.

Michael Gove is expected to announce that a law allowing commercial buildings to be turned into homes without planning permission will extend to shops and offices of any size.

It will also cut the need for them to have been empty for a period of time.

Labour said the plan was an old idea and that home approvals in brownfield areas had halved under Tory rule.

It comes six months after Mr Gove, the housing secretary, first flagged that his department was working on relaxing planning rules.

The Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities says the proposed amendments to planning law will still require buildings to be safe, uphold good standards of living space and have natural light.

It added that the changes would focus on brownfield sites - areas which have already been built on - to limit development sprawling out to the outskirts of villages.

 

So all those balls deep in commercial property that've been trying to reverse the WFH trend so they can force workers back into the office, can now fill them with all the gimmigrants and homeless. City centres will revert back to being full of the poor while the better off live out in the sticks with big 'get off my land' signs of varying subtlety. The death of the high street is just a rebirth back to the old days. Except this time the poor will mostly be the imported and minimum wage slaves.

Then with '15 minute cities' they can build an invisible (and perhaps in time physical) wall around it via taxation of transport to keep the rabble in the centre.

Escape From New York but this time you don't need a criminal record to be one of the prisoners.

 

[JoeDavola]

57 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

I still think a big part of the price being held up is the reverse pyramid structure of families.

Grandparents having 6 siblings, parents having 3 siblings, child having 1 sibling, grandchild is a single child.

The family inheritance slowly aggregating to a single person

Absolutely - it has to be intergenerational wealth flowing downwards that is responsible for a big percentage of what's being paid for these houses.

With a 10% deposit the gaff my parents have sold would cost £1400 a month in mortgage payments at todays rates. Then you add council tax and other bills - that's most of one salary taken up with housing costs alone.

I don't get how most couples can afford that plus running a couple of cars plus having a couple of kids without major BOMAD help.

[ILikeCake]

Just this week I offered 10% under asking on a house that has been on the market since September with very little interest.  Seller not interested in negotiating and holding out for full asking apparently.  It's a lovely house and perfect for my family but overpriced.  It's annoying and I'm not sure what to do next.

[One percent]

1 minute ago, ILikeCake said:

Just this week I offered 10% under asking on a house that has been on the market since September with very little interest.  Seller not interested in negotiating and holding out for full asking apparently.  It's a lovely house and perfect for my family but overpriced.  It's annoying and I'm not sure what to do next.

Keep looking. Something else will come up. No point arguing with stupid

[JoeDavola]

47 minutes ago, ILikeCake said:

Just this week I offered 10% under asking on a house that has been on the market since September with very little interest.  Seller not interested in negotiating and holding out for full asking apparently.  It's a lovely house and perfect for my family but overpriced.  It's annoying and I'm not sure what to do next.

I’ve seen quite a few houses like this in recent years - kite flying prices for 6+ months and nobody interested. Fact of the matter is in many cases they don’t need to sell so will happily string it out for years.

[nirvana]

3 hours ago, ILikeCake said:

It's annoying and I'm not sure what to do next.

anything in here near you?

https://www.allsop.co.uk/auctions/residential-auctions/

[ILikeCake]

4 hours ago, One percent said:

Keep looking. Something else will come up. No point arguing with stupid

Not many houses come up in our area that tick most of our boxes.  I can afford it but don't want to feel like I've over paid.  Thinking of just slowly offering up to the max I'm willing to pay and leaving it on the table.  Early days but Mrs is pregnant and we'd rather move before the baby arrives and get on with our lives.

3 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

I’ve seen quite a few houses like this in recent years - kite flying prices for 6+ months and nobody interested. Fact of the matter is in many cases they don’t need to sell so will happily string it out for years.

Kids have left home and they are downsizing.  I thought they weren't interested in selling but on the second viewing they let slip that they have bought a new build which will be ready early summer.

57 minutes ago, nirvana said:

anything in here near you?

https://www.allsop.co.uk/auctions/residential-auctions/

Nothing near by, cheers.

Edited February 11 by ILikeCake

[Hardhat]

Three in the inbox yesterday from local EAs. Mentioned it before but I'm in a London commuter town.

1. 3 bed on my road, asking price reduced £575 -> £550

2. New development in a town slightly futher out from London, offering to fix mortgage rate at 2% for first two years, house value 500k, ostensibly a 17k price reduction. 

3. Another new development, again further out, house value 500k, offering £10k cashback, free wooden flooring and all electrical appliances included on purchase. Again a circa £15-17k reduction?

 

As stated last time I posted this type of scheme, it's a way for the housebuilder firms to meet buyers at lower price points without actually writing down the asset value of the homes they are building.

Prices are very much falling in the area I live in, buyers are in very short supply.

[One percent]

17 minutes ago, ILikeCake said:

Not many houses come up in our area that tick most of our boxes.  I can afford it but don't want to feel like I've over paid.  Thinking of just slowly offering up to the max I'm willing to pay and leaving it on the table.  Early days but Mrs is pregnant and we'd rather move before the baby arrives and get on with our lives.

Kids have left home and they are downsizing.  I thought they weren't interested in selling but on the second viewing they let slip that they have bought a new build which will be ready early summer.

Nothing near by, cheers.

Congratulations ❤️❤️❤️❤️

don’t pay more than you feel is right, it will eat you up.  Do you think there is much interest in the house?