Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[ILikeCake]

21 minutes ago, One percent said:

Congratulations ❤️❤️❤️❤️

don’t pay more than you feel is right, it will eat you up.  Do you think there is much interest in the house?  

Thank you.

That's what my other half says.  I don't think there has been much interest in the house at the current price.  I reckon if I waited a couple of months I'd get it for 5% below asking, which I'd be willing to pay but you never know, someone might come along and offer close to asking in the meantime, then I'd be kicking myself for losing out for the sake of a few £k.  It's a tricky one.

[One percent]

1 minute ago, ILikeCake said:

Thank you.

That's what my other half says.  I don't think there has been much interest in the house at the current price.  I reckon if I waited a couple of months I'd get it for 5% below asking, which I'd be willing to pay but you never know, someone might come along and offer close to asking in the meantime, then I'd be kicking myself for losing out for the sake of a few £k.  It's a tricky one.

Maybe put an offer in at a price you are comfortable with, explaining why you should be the preferred buyer. Leave it on the table. Maybe even time bound it.  Sounds like a greedy fucker.  

[Chewing Grass]

@ILikeCake We are currently selling MIL's house but BIL is a greedy fucker and my mental SIL thinks its worth 550K, its up for 495K and I told them the absolute max is 475K due to it needing work and only having 3 beds. I already know that at least 2 local builders are interested at 470K.

Its on a massive plot so could be turned into a huge 5 bed house with integral double garage and still have 6ft gap at both sides, back garden is 120' long and front is 30' from pavement.

Told Mrs Chewy to tell her brother it needs dropping 10K, let another 2 weeks pass and drop another 10K.

Both the builders will be cash buyers and won't be hassle as they will be buying the plot to double the size of the house.

BTW SIL is a completely deranged facebook obsessed local government loon.

[ILikeCake]

33 minutes ago, One percent said:

Maybe put an offer in at a price you are comfortable with, explaining why you should be the preferred buyer. Leave it on the table. Maybe even time bound it.  Sounds like a greedy fucker.  

I agree on all counts.  Hopefully they'll accept what I'm comfortable with paying and we'll all be happy.  I don't mind slightly over paying.  The house would be perfect for my family for the next 20+ years.  The move will add approx 2 years onto my FIRE plans but I knew that when we decided to try for another baby.

[sancho panza]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/buying-selling/splitting-up-cant-afford-move-out-mortgage-housing-market/

Trapped and miserable: The reality of divorcing in Britain’s grim housing market

Soaring house prices and rents make it impossible for some couples to move out and move on

Susie and her husband James appeared to be living the dream. They welcomed two lively young children and, a few years ago, the couple bought a beautiful cottage in a chocolate-box village in the West Country with a “rock-bottom mortgage interest rate”.

Reality hit last year when they split up – but that was only the start of their problems. They are now unhappily trapped in their once-idyllic home because they can’t afford to move.  

“There are nine months to run on the mortgage and we obviously wouldn’t be able to get such a good deal now, so we can’t afford to sell up and buy two new homes,” says Susie, a nurse. “It’s really hard to share a two-bedroom cottage when you’re in the middle of a divorce.”

The ex-couple, who aren’t using their real names, have cobbled together a system. James, who works in IT, goes to his office during the day and Susie works when the children are at nursery. Susie picks them up, gets them ready for bed and, when James comes home from work, Susie then goes out to do an evening shift. At weekends, they take it in turns to have the children at home while the other goes to stay with friends or family.

January is typically a busy month for divorce lawyers as Christmas puts an added strain on relationships. However, the combination of increased mortgage rates, the cost of living crisis, a slow property market and record rents means that many couples who no longer want to be together aren’t able physically to separate their lives. 

A third of people responding to a survey conducted last summer by Stowe Family Law, the UK’s largest family law firm, said rising mortgage rates meant they could simply not afford to live alone.

Breaking up is harder to do

There were around 98,000 divorces in the year to September, according to the latest quarterly family court statistics. This is a little lower than the average for the preceding five years, and down from over 150,000 a decade ago. 

The issue is that the numbers often don’t add up for people to divorce, says Adrian Anderson, of mortgage broker Anderson Harris. “Getting divorced is usually extremely expensive,” he says. “People have geared their lives around the ultra-low mortgage rates we had for many years. Higher rates have meant that it may no longer be affordable for couples to take a larger mortgage, or move on and take two mortgages.” 

The realities of selling up

For those splitting couples who are taking the conventional route of selling the marital home, dividing the equity and buying two smaller homes with the proceeds, the reality can be brutal – especially if they want to stay in the same area to minimise disruption for their school-age children. Stuart Forsdike, of PCS Legal, says: “Despite some recent declines, property prices and interest rates remain high, which makes it challenging.”

Sally Harmer, a drama teacher, used to live with her husband and two children in a four-bedroom, four-bathroom detached home in a village outside Rochester, in Kent. After a recent amicable divorce, she was dismayed by what her property budget of £300,000 could buy her.

Sometimes the selling process is hampered if the partners disagree. According to Marc Schneiderman, of the north London estate agency Arlington Residential: “It is not unusual for one to move out and want the house to be sold quickly, while the other is determined to stay in the house for as long as possible or indefinitely. This causes real issues, especially with regards to viewings on the property.”

Tough times for tenants

Often, when a couple splits up, one partner will move out and into a rental while they wait to sell the marital home. Research at the end of last year by Credit Karma found that 58pc of renters aged 45 or over previously owned homes, with 21pc of those renting after a relationship breakdown, rising to 28pc of those aged 55 to 64.

These people are being thrust into an overheated rental market. Rents on newly-let properties rose by a record 10.2pc in the year to December 2023, according to Aneisha Beveridge of Hamptons estate agency. “This cost a tenant who moved into a new home an average of £124 a month more in rent, equating to an extra £1,488 each year,” she says.

[HousePriceMania]

It's like an estate agents night out in here.

[darkmarket]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

It's like an estate agents night out in here.

This week should be interesting in terms of public perception of the direction of the economy moving forward. If inflation continues to pick up and recession is officially acknowledged, that would move the discourse on from the delusions of Q4 last year and firmly into how best to handle the new reality.

My hope going into the year was for that narrative to die and be replaced in the first few months. Once it sinks in that there will be no spring bounce but quite the opposite, increased volume should reflect in lower ask prices with few bids. Mild fear.

If we see a commercial property crash, systemic banking issues or forced selling by Chinese investors meantime, that could inject a sense of panic. The Euro and Pound could also drop in that scenario.

As spring turns to summer, the Red Sea situation will need to be resolved. If so, and inflation still isn't falling we could see talk of rate hikes. Amidst recession and rising unemployment, sentiment will likely be quite bleak.

For now, all that's needed for that to unfold is things to continue on their current path. I hope that's a fresh perspective for the estate agents to consider over their cosmopolitans.

Earlier, someone asked for price predictions for the year. Mine is more bearish than some at -40%+ nominal in 2024 assuming Sterling isn't the scapegoat.

[Long time lurking]

 

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

 

One for TL.

I dont see any rebellion.

Grainger - who are a corporate, properly run landlord, are pointing out the cost of regulation.

However, its in Graingers intreste to get all the shyter fuckweit LL out.

Yes, LAs are using LL schemes are a revenue.

However, the shit created by fuckwit LL is very expensive.

 

 

 

[Heart's Ease]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/25894748/housing-crisis-spiralling-migration-matt-goodwin/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebarweb

"Britain can either have mass, uncontrolled and unsustainable immigration.

 

Or it can have affordable and available housing.

It can’t have both."

One minute read. The Sun!

[Long time lurking]

 

[Heart's Ease]

12 minutes ago, Long time lurking said:

 

 

Proposals form part of plan sent to Chancellor by Housing and Finance Institute

• It also includes housing deposit loans repayable through the tax system
• But critics raised concerns pension money will never be paid back in
•  

Edited February 13 by Heart's Ease
Formatting knackered. The HFI set up by coalition government in 2015. Funded by tax money, housebuilders,and city of London corporation. Wholesome stuff!

[Long time lurking]

57 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

 

 

Proposals form part of plan sent to Chancellor by Housing and Finance Institute

• It also includes housing deposit loans repayable through the tax system
• But critics raised concerns pension money will never be paid back in
•  

Will these deposits taken from pensions still be tax free ?

[Democorruptcy]

On 12/02/2024 at 11:44, darkmarket said:

Earlier, someone asked for price predictions for the year. Mine is more bearish than some at -40%+ nominal in 2024 assuming Sterling isn't the scapegoat.

You could always be in the right place at the right time and find a distressed vendor to get -40% off one, particularly if you aren't one of those  scared about trying low offers. However there is no chance of -40% nominal in the indices by the end of this year. Housing moves slower than that and we already halfway through Feb. Say Feb is flat (after 4 rising months), you would need -5% March and every remaining month of the year to get from 100 to 60. A slower start that changes by -1% a month from March -1% to Deecember -10% just gets there! Both are very unlikely?

[darkmarket]

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

You could always be in the right place at the right time and find a distressed vendor to get -40% off one, particularly if you aren't one of those  scared about trying low offers. However there is no chance of -40% nominal in the indices by the end of this year. Housing moves slower than that and we already halfway through Feb. Say Feb is flat (after 4 rising months), you would need -5% March and every remaining month of the year to get from 100 to 60. A slower start that changes by -1% a month from March -1% to Deecember -10% just gets there! Both are very unlikely?

Prices are falling, not rising. The failed spring bounce on bad macro news will be the catalyst for the first big leg down, which can easily surpass the move down from peak last year. Increased transaction numbers in that environment will lead to momentum building into summer, by which time I expect a macro shock (it won't be a shock) to be the catalyst for the rest as we head into a cold winter. I do expect falls in certain months to be high single digit.

Fitch out today with warnings of a UK downgrade. There is no room for the stimulus both political parties and other over-leveraged players in the market desperately need.

I've highlighted what could be seen as hubris. Maybe you just meant it rhetorically, but that's exactly the mindset that leads to -40% nominal falls (at least).

[onlyme]

2 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

Prices are falling, not rising. The failed spring bounce on bad macro news will be the catalyst for the first big leg down, which can easily surpass the move down from peak last year. Increased transaction numbers in that environment will lead to momentum building into summer, by which time I expect a macro shock (it won't be a shock) to be the catalyst for the rest as we head into a cold winter. I do expect falls in certain months to be high single digit.

Fitch out today with warnings of a UK downgrade. There is no room for the stimulus both political parties and other over-leveraged players in the market desperately need.

I've highlighted what could be seen as hubris. Maybe you just meant it rhetorically, but that's exactly the mindset that leads to -40% nominal falls (at least).

I know sellers who have already accepted a 15 / 20% reduction from listing in order to secure a sale, admittedly from near peak pricing which was particularly peaky but orignal listing price was still adjusted somehwat to have been after that peak.

 

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

Prices are falling, not rising. The failed spring bounce on bad macro news will be the catalyst for the first big leg down, which can easily surpass the move down from peak last year. Increased transaction numbers in that environment will lead to momentum building into summer, by which time I expect a macro shock (it won't be a shock) to be the catalyst for the rest as we head into a cold winter. I do expect falls in certain months to be high single digit.

Fitch out today with warnings of a UK downgrade. There is no room for the stimulus both political parties and other over-leveraged players in the market desperately need.

I've highlighted what could be seen as hubris. Maybe you just meant it rhetorically, but that's exactly the mindset that leads to -40% nominal falls (at least).

What measure are you are using to suggest prices are falling, finger in the air? I thought you were using indices such as the Halifax, which is 4 months rising https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=halifax+house+prices+up+4+months+fastest+rate+since+2022&ia=web

Even if Fitch downgrades us etc etc, there simply isn't enough time to change the indices by -40% nominal. However if I'm wrong and Halifax is -40% nominal on the year in Dec, I'll give you £1 because I would be pleased by it.

[darkmarket]

4 minutes ago, onlyme said:

I know sellers who have already accepted a 15 / 20% reduction from listing in order to secure a sale, admittedly from near peak pricing which was particularly peaky but orignal listing price was still adjusted somehwat to have been after that peak.

 

About 20% below peak already sounds about right to me.

[darkmarket]

Just now, Democorruptcy said:

What measure are you are using to suggest prices are falling, finger in the air? I thought you were using indices such as the Halifax, which is 4 months rising https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=halifax+house+prices+up+4+months+fastest+rate+since+2022&ia=web

Even if Fitch downgrades us etc etc, there simply isn't enough time to change the indices by -40% nominal. However if I'm wrong and Halifax is -40% nominal on the year in Dec, I'll give you £1 because I would be pleased by it.

I pay no attention to those indices. Land Registry is as good as it gets and even that can hide things.

[spygirl]

2 hours ago, Heart's Ease said:

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/25894748/housing-crisis-spiralling-migration-matt-goodwin/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebarweb

"Britain can either have mass, uncontrolled and unsustainable immigration.

 

Or it can have affordable and available housing.

It can’t have both."

One minute read. The Sun!

And a welfare state and public services.

If they cant or wont stop migrants pouring in - and its happening here, there (EU) , and over there (US), then they need to play hardball and turn o profit on each one.

UK really should be looking at grossing 10k for each migrant above any service they use.

I mean, if I go to India I pay to stay in a hotel and eat out.

Treat them as tourists 0- t be milked.

 

 

2 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

 

FTB wont have pensions.

 

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

I pay no attention to those indices. Land Registry is as good as it gets and even that can hide things.

OK I'll still pay up if the Land Registry has house prices -40% Jan to Dec 2024, though their reports are delayed so you will have to wait longer for your £1. Good luck!

[darkmarket]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

OK I'll still pay up if the Land Registry has house prices -40% Jan to Dec 2024, though their reports are delayed so you will have to wait longer for your £1. Good luck!

Ok, a token pound and we can settle 12/25, no rush.

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

Ok, a token pound and we can settle 12/25, no rush.

I'll never have been so pleased to hand over a £1. (That's from a Yorkshireman as well)

[darkmarket]

8 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'll never have been so pleased to hand over a £1. (That's from a Yorkshireman as well)

Something, something, Yorkshiremen and vegetarians.

[Wight Flight]

7 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

 

Someone has to pay for the 32% rent rise the landlords are about to impose.