Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[JoeDavola]

Saw a flat that fair enough was a decent size of a flat in a good area of Belfast, though needed redecorating/new kitchen, up for £200K at the end of last week. Thought about whether a ground floor flat was really a good idea....£200K does seem a lot for a flat...anyway it went Sale Agreed within 3 working days.

Folks have put a bid in on another house, it's 30% smaller than what they're currently in but is going to cost them £50K of Dad's council redundancy money to move to if they do get it cause its a detached bungalow. Again the prices are not only muliples of what they ever paid in mortgage debt but are actually approaching twice the amount they paid for the house they bought 11 years ago just after they retired.

Mate was telling me there's still plenty of boomers making £300K+ cash offers all the time for houses where he is in Larne (if you knew what Larne was like that woud amuse you!).

Anyway the Bank of Boomer is still going strong it seems - my parents latest house they're bidding on will be more attractive to retired boomers than families with children so will be interesting to see how the bidding goes. I have a feeling they're at their wits end that they're actually willing to just throw almost every penny they have at the elusive dream of owning a modest bungalow in a place they deem posh enough.

Edited February 13 by JoeDavola

[Bobthebuilder]

55 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

What measure are you are using to suggest prices are falling, finger in the air? I thought you were using indices such as the Halifax, which is 4 months rising https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffab&q=halifax+house+prices+up+4+months+fastest+rate+since+2022&ia=web

Even if Fitch downgrades us etc etc, there simply isn't enough time to change the indices by -40% nominal. However if I'm wrong and Halifax is -40% nominal on the year in Dec, I'll give you £1 because I would be pleased by it.

Halifax etc indices never show what's going on pre sale, 4 bed in my sisters street was listed at £425K a few months ago, it is now at £325K. That will not be reported truthfully anywhere.

[Democorruptcy]

5 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Halifax etc indices never show what's going on pre sale, 4 bed in my sisters street was listed at £425K a few months ago, it is now at £325K. That will not be reported truthfully anywhere.

That may well be the case but when someone is suggesting -40% nominal falls, we need to know what measure they are using? As I said earlier -40% on A property may well be achieveable but that doesn't help everybody hoping for falls. If after your own prediction, the accuracy of it is decided by your own interpretation of what has happened, then the prediction is pretty meaningless in my book. I've at least put my neck on the line here, offer a free no bet £1 gift.

[Kendo]

3 hours ago, Long time lurking said:

 

Good god! I know these ideas have been floated before but I worry this might actually come to pass this time given the desperation of the Tories. I know it doesn’t get quite the same attention as the housing crisis, but there’s supposed to be a pensions crisis as well (well, for many in the private sector at least). Two wrongs don’t make a right except in their insane heads.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, Kendo said:

Good god! I know these ideas have been floated before but I worry this might actually come to pass this time given the desperation of the Tories. I know it doesn’t get quite the same attention as the housing crisis, but there’s supposed to be a pensions crisis as well (well, for many in the private sector at least). Two wrongs don’t make a right except in their insane heads.

It will only stabilise the prices imo. I'll be dead before the screaming starts. War, viruse, more war, recession, but you can access something you'll never get. Insane. These cunts won't let it die.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

It will only stabilise the prices imo. I'll be dead before the screaming starts. War, viruse, more war, recession, but you can access something you'll never get. Insane. These cunts won't let it die.

It all ends in the 2030s.  All of it.  Hopefully you're planning to be around that long

[Phil]

Just now, Loki said:

It all ends in the 2030s.  All of it.  Hopefully you're planning to be around that long

I was hoping 2030s tbf. As I'm pissing and shitting myself , happy in the knowledge I saw it go massively tits up. Then, and only then  with one of my last dieing breaths, I can say, I did tell ya.

They are still cunts.

[belfastchild]

13 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Saw a flat that fair enough was a decent size of a flat in a good area of Belfast, though needed redecorating/new kitchen, up for £200K at the end of last week. Thought about whether a ground floor flat was really a good idea....£200K does seem a lot for a flat...anyway it went Sale Agreed within 3 working days.

Folks have put a bid in on another house, it's 30% smaller than what they're currently in but is going to cost them £50K of Dad's council redundancy money to move to if they do get it cause its a detached bungalow. Again the prices are not only muliples of what they ever paid in mortgage debt but are actually approaching twice the amount they paid for the house they bought 11 years ago just after they retired.

Mate was telling me there's still plenty of boomers making £300K+ cash offers all the time for houses where he is in Larne (if you knew what Larne was like that woud amuse you!).

Anyway the Bank of Boomer is still going strong it seems - my parents latest house they're bidding on will be more attractive to retired boomers than families with children so will be interesting to see how the bidding goes. I have a feeling they're at their wits end that they're actually willing to just throw almost every penny they have at the elusive dream of owning a modest bungalow in a place they deem posh enough.

Troubles pensions are kicking in.

At least that wont really affect the Catholic areas. Was up between Larne and Glenarm 2 weekends ago and couldnt believe the prices places near the sea were going for, right next to the road and with little or no parking.

[AWW]

tbh if the pension withdrawal is tax-free, I could be tempted. The way things are going, they're going to have to go for SIPPs at some point, likely by binning the 25% tax free lump sum or taxing divis. Plus another increase to pension age is on the cards.

[JoeDavola]

1 hour ago, belfastchild said:

Troubles pensions are kicking in.

At least that wont really affect the Catholic areas. Was up between Larne and Glenarm 2 weekends ago and couldnt believe the prices places near the sea were going for, right next to the road and with little or no parking.

Imagine having a fortune and also having so little imagination that the best thing you can think to do with that fortune is live in Larne.

[spygirl]

The Teesside seaside town where southerners are snapping up holiday homes for £20k

Redcar estate agent Jennifer Sanderson speaks about 'investment from the south' as cheaper properties in the town are sold off

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/teesside-seaside-town-southerners-snapping-28578383

An estate agent predicts a Teesside seaside town is set for a holiday homes and Airbnb boost as out-of-town buyers snap up cheap properties.

Jennifer Sanderson, director of estate agents Redcar Letting and Sales, says Redcar appears to be on the cusp of an economic boost as its seaside boltholes come cheaper than other similar coastal resorts around the country.

...

Explaining the special features that are attracting buyers, Jennifer said: “Redcar is a nice seaside resort. There is a lot of investment coming from the south. One of the flats I sold, they were looking for a holiday home by the sea that was affordable. I think (investors) can get a lot for their money at the moment. There is a lot of out-of-town investment coming in.”

 

Jennifer said day-trippers and tourists should visit the town and see what’s on offer, with Redcar Beach appearing in the 2006 film Atonement, starring Keira Knightley. It is also home to a quirky vertical pier - the 80 foot Redcar beacon on the seafront, offering 360 degree views of the area.

Also, no mention of Redcar can miss out its most famous dessert - a lemon top ice cream. The area suffered a major drawback in 2015, when Redcar Steelworks shut for good - ending a 170-year chapter and making 3,000 people unemployed. Since then, Teesworks - the UK’s largest freeport - has seen a £200m investment.

 

Comments - 

WestCorkBoro1 DAY AGO

After reading the rest of the current “front page stories” I’m surprised anyone wants to buy in the area, reads like WW2!

 

 

newt241 DAY AGO

absolute garbage no one ,certainly not southerners are buying these flats you need a sawn off and a lot of bottle just to enter them,the fact their 20 grand tells you no one is buying them, and you certainly couldnt leave one empty for months on end,

obvious ? ,what price were these 20 grand flats before the so called southern invasion ?

 

 

beachboy2 DAYS AGO

Does this rag just copy the rubbish the Northern echo prints all the flats in redcar are full of smack heads

 

 

titogobbi2 DAYS AGO

Not sure how you can try and draw a comparison between Tynemouths Percy Gardens and anything in Redcar. (Unless you are writing some absolute tosh as a filler.)

[spygirl]

Percy Gardens - 

 

Redcar

[HousePriceMania]

@JoeDavola

 

 

[onlyme]

1 hour ago, HousePriceMania said:

@JoeDavola

 

 

Timing about right (if a little delayed) if you hold good by the normal ripple effect in pricing out to the perpihery of the country / UK.

Boomer bungalow pricing absolutely will give the wrong steer, it is a limited market with an expanding clientelle.

If I were a tiny property developer / flipper would not look at any other market to try and make as low a risk as possible turn at the moment.

[HousePriceMania]

Land Registry / ONS HPI December 2023 +0.1% MoM -1.4% YoY

"£284,691 actually -0.1% lower than last month's' £284,950 and -3.3% lower than last year's £294,329 due to them continuously revising previous figures down."

 

Courtesy of a new "fellow" on TOS.

 

They're making it up.

Edited February 14 by HousePriceMania

[onlyme]

 

[One percent]

7 hours ago, spygirl said:

Percy Gardens - 

 

Redcar

Tbf, shopping in Redka is far better than in shitby.  

[JoeDavola]

7 hours ago, HousePriceMania said:

@JoeDavola

 

 

Doesn't really mean much, I saw another headling earler in the week that houses in NI have gone up another £10K on average from last year.

I think we are seeing the start of a BTL exodus so you might be able to get a shitty 2 bed hovel at a discount vs what it would have been two years ago.

[MrXxxx]

I think some may enjoy this 'tirade' by Sasha Yanshin on 'Houses as an investment':

 

[HousePriceMania]

53 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Doesn't really mean much, I saw another headling earler in the week that houses in NI have gone up another £10K on average from last year.

I think we are seeing the start of a BTL exodus so you might be able to get a shitty 2 bed hovel at a discount vs what it would have been two years ago.

Who was the headline from ?

[JoeDavola]

2 minutes ago, HousePriceMania said:

Who was the headline from ?

Can't remember, was some article posted on Facebook. One of the industry reports I guess.

Either way I don't see evidence of falls in any transaction I've heard of.

House my parents bid on a couple of weeks back went from £300K to £350K in a week.

They're currently bidding on a bungalow will be interesting to see how that goes.

[Bobthebuilder]

11 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Can't remember, was some article posted on Facebook. One of the industry reports I guess.

Either way I don't see evidence of falls in any transaction I've heard of.

House my parents bid on a couple of weeks back went from £300K to £350K in a week.

They're currently bidding on a bungalow will be interesting to see how that goes.

It is a shame you are not seeing the same price movements as I am currently. Saw a 2 bed flat today, share of freehold, roof terrace, massive communal garden, listed at £150K. I am getting quite tempted.

Edited February 14 by Bobthebuilder

[JoeDavola]

Just now, Bobthebuilder said:

It is a shame you are not seeing the same price movements as I am currently. Saw a 2 bed flat today, share of freehold, roof terrace, massive communal garden, listed at £150. I am getting quite tempted.

I think two bed flats in BTL blocks might start to come down in price as more and more of them go up for sale.

City centre flats here in Belfast don't seem to be selling, which doesn't surprise me. No drops in price, just sittin for months.

Are you tempted to buy something to move or BTL or a holiday home?

[One percent]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

It is a shame you are not seeing the same price movements as I am currently. Saw a 2 bed flat today, share of freehold, roof terrace, massive communal garden, listed at £150K. I am getting quite tempted.

That’s scabby prices

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136565120#/?channel=RES_BUY

[Bobthebuilder]

8 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I think two bed flats in BTL blocks might start to come down in price as more and more of them go up for sale.

City centre flats here in Belfast don't seem to be selling, which doesn't surprise me. No drops in price, just sittin for months.

Are you tempted to buy something to move or BTL or a holiday home?

2nd home, maybe with a mate as a lodger.

5 minutes ago, One percent said:

That’s scabby prices

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/properties/136565120#/?channel=RES_BUY

2 bedroom apartment for sale in Salisbury Street, Blandford Forum, Dorset, DT11 (rightmove.co.uk)