Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[spunko]

3 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

It's ok neither do I sometimes.

Grand - I missed that, had a quick look but still can't spot the post.

That 50% drop of course isn't indicitive of the wider market or even a particular local market.

Not trolling, just not going with the "crash around the corner" or "crash happening" idea which seems deluded to me based on what I see in the local market here. There are so many factors at play compared to the 07-12 crash in NI.

It's worth remembering that any crash in London won't trickle out to you for at least a few months to years.  The further you are from London the more delayed it will be, as per other previous crashes 

[One percent]

5 minutes ago, spunko said:

It's worth remembering that any crash in London won't trickle out to you for at least a few months to years.  The further you are from London the more delayed it will be, as per other previous crashes 

Where i am, historically, the London market has never had an influence. It didn’t go up massively in the 80s or in the run up to 08. Thus it didn’t drop either. Just years of stagnation. What really did set the bonkers off here was the wfh new normal. Prices were through the roof with estate agents saying, set your own price and add some more just for you.  It’s retreating massively now. 

[onlyme]

18 minutes ago, One percent said:

Where i am, historically, the London market has never had an influence. It didn’t go up massively in the 80s or in the run up to 08. Thus it didn’t drop either. Just years of stagnation. What really did set the bonkers off here was the wfh new normal. Prices were through the roof with estate agents saying, set your own price and add some more just for you.  It’s retreating massively now. 

I'd say that is effectively the London ripple effect on steriods in a compressed timescale, within a matter of months London wage earners were allowed to live/work anywhere in the country.

[One percent]

15 minutes ago, onlyme said:

I'd say that is effectively the London ripple effect on steriods in a compressed timescale, within a matter of months London wage earners were allowed to live/work anywhere in the country.

Agree but it was unprecedented. Everything is now sticking and reduced massively. However, Ive seen some bonkers examples of stuff going sstc that’s way overpriced. It’s either still a few greater fools around or estate agents doing what they do best, lying. 

[Ianb78]

5 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I really do not understand you sometimes Joe, 11 posts back I posted about a house in Dorset that has fallen almost 50%.

You sound like a troll.

One house in Dorset cannot be extrapolated to the country as a whole I’m afraid 

Edited February 10 by Ianb78

[Bobthebuilder]

41 minutes ago, Ianb78 said:

One house in Dorset cannot be extrapolated to the country as a whole I’m afraid 

I never suggested that it was, but the price falls quoted are real.

[spygirl]

17 hours ago, onlyme said:

Canada, the housing finance cesspit of the world.

 

BBC had this -

Is a waning Canadian dream fuelling reverse migration in Punjab?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-68124559

Basically, anywhere where Indians *AND* Chinkys can pile in will go rapidly to fuck.

They scam and buy houses.

They corrupt and scam money

And they bring in more relatives and scammers.

And there are over 1bln of each of them.

 

 

[spygirl]

17 hours ago, Plan-b said:

Gilt rates are up - consistently around 4.5% and nearly made it to 4.6% throughout today.

The effect is lenders are putting up rates, some have already done so they are now joined by the biggest who is raising by 0.25%.

Strange, after hearing banks were going to reduce mortgage rates ,week in, week out since 1st week of Jan, the media did not report this ....

 

[spygirl]

18 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

I think it really is ‘different’ this time as houses are more so than ever a store of intergenerational wealth, so I can see them continuing to decouple from wages, especially the more desirable houses.

Call their bluff on what? The house is sale agreed to the FTB.

No.

Granny dies. Houses get sold. Money gets spent on cars n holidays and paying off mortgage.

Again, UK mas mortgage market has only existed since the 70s - ~50y.

The first gen of mass market house owners are in their 70s/80s now. And are about to find out how poor a house is for wealth.

 

[spygirl]

15 hours ago, Ianb78 said:

No

It will crash but not yet as the 18 year cycle has not quite played out 

We are just about to enter a new surge which will be the “winners curse” phase culminating in a collapse around 2026

 

Dont trust/believe in this daft 18y cycle.

Its just a lucky theory.

In my lifetime the following has happened -

- Bretton woods, move away from gold stand.

- Hyper inflation in 70s due to oil crisis.

- De regulation of fin sec. Late 0s

- Big bang in 96, massive rise in finsec employment and wages.

- Brown literally creating the biggest bubble in credit/bank assets from 2002-2007, which promptly blew up.

All thee events change money/credit.

 

 

[spygirl]

15 hours ago, spunko said:

This is just Liar Loans 2.0. I wonder when it'll be exposed that it's happening here.

Cant wait for the "I cant afford to buy a house because of Chinky scammers" protests.... if only.

Liar loans *AND* uber migraton of scamming Chinks n Indians.

 

[spygirl]

14 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

 

Am I the only one here who thinks this "the crash is just around the corner" stuff is getting ridiculous now?

Seems it's been just around the corner for over a decade.

I'll happily listen to arguments to the contrary but I don't see how graphs of previous cycles have relevence in the context of ever soaring population, and an ever widening wealth divide ie basically every desirable house now being bought with multi-generational wealth.

Most normies don't trust the stock market, so as the boomers pass away the money hadned down will just all get ploughed into fighting over the houses in the areas that people want to live in as that's the only thing most people know how to do in this country.

Yes, probanly.

Noirland is differnt - in a bad way.

Theres so much money slushing around - Money to keep Team green away from team red.

EU money slushing around.

Then US Help the paddys money

Money from the South chasing properdee.

And itll all blow up, cos end of the day - houses dont make money!

The South has now got to earn its money rather than just skimming the low EU import duty.

The North has go to create productive employment rather than DLA for everyone.

And if SF get in North n South --- the whole lot will blow up economically.

 

 

 

[spygirl]

14 hours ago, Ianb78 said:

I’ve always been a proponent of the 18 year cycle so have pencilled in 2026 for years. I agree that the media keep saying there’s going to be a crash on an annual basis but that is clearly bullshit 

House price growth is overwhelmingly a product of affordable finance NOT lack of raw demand. In 2007/08, there was not a sudden lack of demand, it was driven by a lack of finance caused by the banking crisis 

House price are a result of local wages and price and availability of credit - thats all.

 

[spygirl]

14 hours ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I really do not understand you sometimes Joe, 11 posts back I posted about a house in Dorset that has fallen almost 50%.

You sound like a troll.

Id guess most of Dorset houses are bought with money from London - there sure dont appear to much local earned money in Dorset.

London has been falling for a good 7/8 years now.

The fall appears to be very rapid at the mo.

Some 70yo who thought theyd won the London housing lottery with an 800k ex council house in some shithole estates are suddenly finding that London has filled up with Nbgoboo 12 kids and Jamal Machette , and the jobs - and money - has fled.

There is something super structural happein in London economy.

Large parts are the finsec blowing up in 2007.

Other parts are the flood of unemployable, stabby migrants.

Followed by Coof lockdown reminding people that a ~10Mb broadband connect ion means you dont have to commute into London no more.

 

 

 

[One percent]

2 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Id guess most of Dorset houses are bought with money from London - there sure dont appear to much local earned money in Dorset.

London has been falling for a good 7/8 years now.

The fall appears to be very rapid at the mo.

Some 70yo who thought theyd won the London housing lottery with an 800k ex council house in some shithole estates are suddenly finding that London has filled up with Nbgoboo 12 kids and Jamal Machette , and the jobs - and money - has fled.

There is something super structural happein in London economy.

Large parts are the finsec blowing up in 2007.

Other parts are the flood of unemployable, stabby migrants.

Followed by Coof lockdown reminding people that a ~10Mb broadband connect ion means you dont have to commute into London no more.

 

 

 

Its not what my kids are telling me. They saw a house, it was sstc before they could arrange a viewing.  

[spygirl]

13 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Fair play to you then. Won't take long for us to find out.

The raise in IR's has crippled the local market here in terms of transactions but hasn't dropped prices at all. Just fewer houses being sold and some evidence of a BTL exodus. But the desirable stuff that does come on has buyers queuing up and finance is no less of a problem despite multiples of IR.

I suspect that parts of the market have totally decoupled from the cost of finance.

A market is - prices x transactions.

If you crash transaction then youll bring down prices.

Rest of UK has been in a weird state, supported by ZIRP for ~12y.

Rates have normalised. They might actually go high.

Whatever.

People are now find an property position that could be held comfortable with a ~2% mortgage - 2k per 100k, is no liable viable now they are paying 6% - 6k/100k.

 

[onlyme]

11 minutes ago, spygirl said:

Dont trust/believe in this daft 18y cycle.

Its just a lucky theory.

In my lifetime the following has happened -

- Bretton woods, move away from gold stand.

- Hyper inflation in 70s due to oil crisis.

- De regulation of fin sec. Late 0s

- Big bang in 96, massive rise in finsec employment and wages.

- Brown literally creating the biggest bubble in credit/bank assets from 2002-2007, which promptly blew up.

All thee events change money/credit.

 

 

The explicit time cycle is just an anomaly, the credit cycles are driven hard when they can be and then blow up - either uncontrolled inflation or unsustainable debt, the cycles are juggernauts though and once a phase up or down is in place they are a multi-year affairs that take considerable time to wash out.

[spygirl]

12 hours ago, Wight Flight said:

It doesn't help that my little area has been named one of the top ten coolest places to move to.

Bastards.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/10-coolest-postcodes-to-move-to-in-2024-s6tsshqsd

We get that, every now and then.

Some week papers lifestyle wank piece.

Just as well papers are dying on their arse.

And youve got a moat.

Look what we get

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-62296620

 

 

[One percent]

1 minute ago, spygirl said:

We get that, every now and then.

Some week papers lifestyle wank piece.

Just as well papers are dying on their arse.

And youve got a moat.

Look what we get

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-62296620

 

 

Scummers in fancy dress.  

[spygirl]

13 hours ago, onlyme said:

Plenty that has not been flushed out from 1.0 it seems.

A labour governemtn is going to be hilarious in a macabre way, I don;t think they will have a chance in hell pully off the con trick with the economic setup they are going to inherit.

 

Thats is *EXACTLY* my claim/bitch from ~17y ago on TOS.

And its ending like I thought it would.

Like Resi io - 20y 'repayment's and fuck all equity built up.

IO BTL risk to the bank is off the fucking scale.

I know idiots  in scabby who have ~250k, about 100k in a pension, ~30ky earnings but several 100k to low millions of IO BTL borrowing.

There is no way the bank can get its capital back.

The LL cannot pay the shortfall.

The people renting the places either dont want or cant afford to buy.

This is why I expect banks with high IO BTL exposure - and they are all small BSes, to go bust.

The IO BT SVR is going to go well above 15 as the actual risk is priced in.

Again, an IO BT is a non amortising commercial bridging loan and needs to be priced as such.

 

 

[Wight Flight]

16 minutes ago, spygirl said:

House price are a result of local wages and price and availability of credit - thats all.

 

And local LHA rates.

rents to rise 34% in Bristol this year.

don't go looking for an HPC there.

https://www.property118.com/housing-benefit-rates-increase-but-still-lag-behind-private-rent-rises/

[Colliedog]

10 hours ago, One percent said:

Agree but it was unprecedented. Everything is now sticking and reduced massively. However, Ive seen some bonkers examples of stuff going sstc that’s way overpriced. It’s either still a few greater fools around or estate agents doing what they do best, lying. 

A house on our street on market for 330k has gone sstc after 5 months. A neighbour has said that the offer is 290k so 40k off. He knows someone who works at the estate agents

[spygirl]

9 hours ago, Ianb78 said:

One house in Dorset cannot be extrapolated to the country as a whole I’m afraid 

Id guess 50% of he London/Se spend their nights browsing West country property, as they look to escape Jamal Machettes Crack Emoorium and NGombo 12 kids.

Trust me, every in London/Se knows they live in a over priced shithole. They are all waiting to escape.

If Dorset property is falling/not clearing that means London is fucked.

 

 

 

[spygirl]

12 minutes ago, onlyme said:

The explicit time cycle is just an anomaly, the credit cycles are driven hard when they can be and then blow up - either uncontrolled inflation or unsustainable debt, the cycles are juggernauts though and once a phase up or down is in place they are a multi-year affairs that take considerable time to wash out.

That I agree with.

There is usually a ~8y life cycle to credit cycles.

This is what made Browns 'credit crunch' narrative and ZIRP more insane.

He - Brown - also slashed IRs in 2000, to avoid that recession.

 

 

 

[One percent]

15 minutes ago, Colliedog said:

A house on our street on market for 330k has gone sstc after 5 months. A neighbour has said that the offer is 290k so 40k off. He knows someone who works at the estate agents

House near me went on the market last year for over 350 (might have been 380, can’t remember) and the price caught my eye. It dropped in bits and eventually got a buyer when it hit 280, they moved in last week. Im waiting for the figures to see what it actually sold for.