Property crash, just maybe it really is different this time (Part 3)

[MrXxxx]

2 minutes ago, Royston said:

I've been surprised how many I've seen go SSTC in my location in the last couple of months, especially given its a slow local market at the best of times and particularly so out of tourist season, but plenty seem to be getting snapped up.

But SSTC isn't sold until contracts have been exchanged...a 'genuine SSTC [yes, EA do sometimes play games with SSTC] can fail for a whole number of reasons:

1.BS survey price undervalues agreed price,

2. Buyer get 'cold feet',

3. Chain breaks down,

4. Survey throws up issue,

5. Seller gets greedy and puts back on market at higher price,

6. Seller Gazunders buyer,

7. Buyer tries Gazumping seller at last minute,

8. Buyers  circumstances change i.e. 3 D's,

9. Buyer get tired on a long-wait and walks away,

10. Buyer gets made redundant,

11. Buyer finds a new 'Forever' home.

 

Anything I have missed?...as we can see, you can understand why two in every three houses SSTC fall through....it's not sold until you have the money in your bank account!

[darkmarket]

2 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

Folks went to view another house; bidding quickly went up by £15K and every bid was from a first time buyer with a "substantial deposit" (BOMAD IMO but who knows), and therefore the EA basically told them that as long as the FTB matched their bids they were still the preferred bid. Told them the vendor wanted the sale tied up quickly etc...

....however the house didn't go sale agreed. About a week later the listing was changed to put the price up i.e. the original listed price plus £15K. It then went sale agreed today.

So perhaps this is the new thing, the price listed on the website rising in real time?

So that's the last two houses they've bid on which were both 10 times the average NI wage have both gone to FTB.

The other insane thing is the prices they are bidding now are approaching twice the amount in ££ they paid for the house they're in that they bought 11 years ago, which itself was twice the amount in ££ of the house they bought 11 years before that (and that was at the bottom of the housing crash).

Would it be worth calling their bluff on whether these other offers really do exist?

[Ianb78]

13 minutes ago, Royston said:

I've been surprised how many I've seen go SSTC in my location in the last couple of months, especially given its a slow local market at the best of times and particularly so out of tourist season, but plenty seem to be getting snapped up.

Excellent opportunity to “buy the dip”

You can get some decent discounts currently 

[JoeDavola]

1 hour ago, Ianb78 said:

Oh dear, no house price crash once again 

Looks like Fred Harrison’s 18 year cycle is still on course. Mid cycle dip complete and the “winner’s curse” surge coming soon before the inevitable collapse around 2026

Ignore Fred at your peril 

I think it really is ‘different’ this time as houses are more so than ever a store of intergenerational wealth, so I can see them continuing to decouple from wages, especially the more desirable houses.

46 minutes ago, darkmarket said:

Would it be worth calling their bluff on whether these other offers really do exist?

Call their bluff on what? The house is sale agreed to the FTB.

[onlyme]

48 minutes ago, Ianb78 said:

Excellent opportunity to “buy the dip”

You can get some decent discounts currently 

Its all fakery, managed to dupe a few in with promsises of lower rates.

 

 

[darkmarket]

6 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

Call their bluff on what? The house is sale agreed to the FTB.

It suggests a buyer exists, but no more. Estate agents wouldn't lie though.

[onlyme]

Canada, the housing finance cesspit of the world.

 

Edited February 9 by onlyme

[Royston]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

But SSTC isn't sold until contracts have been exchanged...a 'genuine SSTC [yes, EA do sometimes play games with SSTC] can fail for a whole number of reasons:

1.BS survey price undervalues agreed price,

2. Buyer get 'cold feet',

3. Chain breaks down,

4. Survey throws up issue,

5. Seller gets greedy and puts back on market at higher price,

6. Seller Gazunders buyer,

7. Buyer tries Gazumping seller at last minute,

8. Buyers  circumstances change i.e. 3 D's,

9. Buyer get tired on a long-wait and walks away,

10. Buyer gets made redundant,

11. Buyer finds a new 'Forever' home.

 

Anything I have missed?...as we can see, you can understand why two in every three houses SSTC fall through....it's not sold until you have the money in your bank account!

Yes I don't disagree that all of those things stand in the way of any sale completing and always have done, but still the ratio remains the same regarding how many SSTC's do complete. 

[Plan-b]

Gilt rates are up - consistently around 4.5% and nearly made it to 4.6% throughout today.

The effect is lenders are putting up rates, some have already done so they are now joined by the biggest who is raising by 0.25%.

Edited February 9 by Plan-b

[Royston]

51 minutes ago, JoeDavola said:

I think it really is ‘different’ this time as houses are more so than ever a store of intergenerational wealth, so I can see them continuing to decouple from wages, especially the more desirable houses.

 

I've come to the same conclusion, not just with property but with the whole asset price "everything bubble"... it's not a bubble its just the new normal.

There might be a few minor dips here and there but nothing is going to see a crash of epic proportions.

[Noallegiance]

Friend of mine.

Mortgage to more than double later this year from £1800 to £4000+ per month.

He's considering STR.

[spunko]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

But SSTC isn't sold until contracts have been exchanged...a 'genuine SSTC [yes, EA do sometimes play games with SSTC] can fail for a whole number of reasons:

1.BS survey price undervalues agreed price,

2. Buyer get 'cold feet',

3. Chain breaks down,

4. Survey throws up issue,

5. Seller gets greedy and puts back on market at higher price,

6. Seller Gazunders buyer,

7. Buyer tries Gazumping seller at last minute,

8. Buyers  circumstances change i.e. 3 D's,

9. Buyer get tired on a long-wait and walks away,

10. Buyer gets made redundant,

11. Buyer finds a new 'Forever' home.

 

Anything I have missed?...as we can see, you can understand why two in every three houses SSTC fall through....it's not sold until you have the money in your bank account!

Though true, I believe the official figure is one in three?

[Bobthebuilder]

@Bus Stop Boxer That oldest house in Wimbourne that you posted before has been reduced again, if you have the price history it should make interesting viewing.

[CVG]

30 minutes ago, spunko said:

Though true, I believe the official figure is one in three?

Strangely, EA's quote 1 in 3, but the actual figures are more like 1 in 4 to 1 in 5 (per UK Property Market Stats Show).

[Ianb78]

3 hours ago, JoeDavola said:

I think it really is ‘different’ this time as houses are more so than ever a store of intergenerational wealth, so I can see them continuing to decouple from wages, especially the more desirable houses.

Call their bluff on what? The house is sale agreed to the FTB.

No

It will crash but not yet as the 18 year cycle has not quite played out 

We are just about to enter a new surge which will be the “winners curse” phase culminating in a collapse around 2026

 

[Bus Stop Boxer]

19 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

@Bus Stop Boxer That oldest house in Wimbourne that you posted before has been reduced again, if you have the price history it should make interesting viewing.

[One percent]

1 minute ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Ouch.  

[spunko]

2 hours ago, onlyme said:

Canada, the housing finance cesspit of the world.

 

This is just Liar Loans 2.0. I wonder when it'll be exposed that it's happening here.

Cant wait for the "I cant afford to buy a house because of Chinky scammers" protests.... if only.

[Phil]

4 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

But SSTC isn't sold until contracts have been exchanged...a 'genuine SSTC [yes, EA do sometimes play games with SSTC] can fail for a whole number of reasons:

1.BS survey price undervalues agreed price,

2. Buyer get 'cold feet',

3. Chain breaks down,

4. Survey throws up issue,

5. Seller gets greedy and puts back on market at higher price,

6. Seller Gazunders buyer,

7. Buyer tries Gazumping seller at last minute,

8. Buyers  circumstances change i.e. 3 D's,

9. Buyer get tired on a long-wait and walks away,

10. Buyer gets made redundant,

11. Buyer finds a new 'Forever' home.

 

Anything I have missed?...as we can see, you can understand why two in every three houses SSTC fall through....it's not sold until you have the money in your bank account!

I love no 6.

No 10 is for people with limited options.

12. BK. Then, wgaf

[One percent]

26 minutes ago, spunko said:

This is just Liar Loans 2.0. I wonder when it'll be exposed that it's happening here.

Cant wait for the "I cant afford to buy a house because of Chinky scammers" protests.... if only.

We should be like many other countries and not allow foreigners to purchase property. Mind, we have sold off everything else, why stop at housing.  

[spunko]

22 minutes ago, One percent said:

We should be like many other countries and not allow foreigners to purchase property. Mind, we have sold off everything else, why stop at housing.  

How will I atone for my white guilt if Mr Mafububu cannot buy the house next door?

[Loki]

6 minutes ago, spunko said:

How will I atone for my white guilt if Mr Mafububu cannot buy the house next door?

Not him too, you've already got Jimmy John O'Donnell Jones to deal with 

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, spunko said:

Though true, I believe the official figure is one in three?

Thanks, should have read "...two in three houses SSTC go through".

[JoeDavola]

1 hour ago, Ianb78 said:

No

It will crash but not yet as the 18 year cycle has not quite played out 

We are just about to enter a new surge which will be the “winners curse” phase culminating in a collapse around 2026

 

 

Am I the only one here who thinks this "the crash is just around the corner" stuff is getting ridiculous now?

Seems it's been just around the corner for over a decade.

I'll happily listen to arguments to the contrary but I don't see how graphs of previous cycles have relevence in the context of ever soaring population, and an ever widening wealth divide ie basically every desirable house now being bought with multi-generational wealth.

Most normies don't trust the stock market, so as the boomers pass away the money hadned down will just all get ploughed into fighting over the houses in the areas that people want to live in as that's the only thing most people know how to do in this country.

[Ianb78]

Just now, JoeDavola said:

 

Am I the only one here who thinks this "the crash is just around the corner" stuff is getting ridiculous now?

Seems it's been just around the corner for over a decade.

I'll happily listen to arguments to the contrary but I don't see how graphs of previous cycles have relevence in the context of ever soaring population, and an ever widening wealth divide ie basically every desirable house now being bought with multi-generational wealth.

Most normies don't trust the stock market, so as the boomers pass away the money hadned down will just all get ploughed into fighting over the houses in the areas that people want to live in as that's the only thing most people know how to do in this country.

I’ve always been a proponent of the 18 year cycle so have pencilled in 2026 for years. I agree that the media keep saying there’s going to be a crash on an annual basis but that is clearly bullshit 

House price growth is overwhelmingly a product of affordable finance NOT lack of raw demand. In 2007/08, there was not a sudden lack of demand, it was driven by a lack of finance caused by the banking crisis